The ongoing transition of former communist countries from planned to market economies has been one of the most important economic phenomena in the last few decades. Among these, China is one of the largest and fastest growing emerging economies in the world since the reforms initiated in the late 1980s. China’s economic growth has been phenomenal. Therefore, understanding China’s energy economy is crucial in the new millennium for politicians, businessmen and energy economists. In particular, China’s energy policy directions will bring about both challenges and opportunities to the world in terms of an increasing share of primary energy consumption and investment in the energy industry. However, after surveying the literature, it is surprising to find that a few major areas of China’s energy economics are missing and the views on China’s energy economics are already out dated. Therefore, given the size and growth of its economy and the effect of its energy consumption on global energy markets, reviewing China’s energy situation and filling the missing literatures are essential for those who are interested in and concerned about China’s economic development in the new millennium. This study was motivated after conducting a survey of the literature on the study of China’s energy economy and reviewing China’s energy situation in the new millennium. The goal of the research is focused on providing readers the most important and the newest information on China’s energy economy. The study consists of three introductory sections and three core sections. The former includes a survey of literature, China’s energy situation in the new millennium, institutional evolution and changing energy prices. The latter includes tests for the emergence of an energy market in China, factor substitution and demand for energy, and technological change and the determinants of energy intensity. The main findings are as follows. China’s energy economy is still underdeveloped. It is crucial to review China’s energy situation in the new millennium. Energy, industrial deregulation and price reforms have been fast in China since the early 1990s. Empirical investigations have found evidence for the emergence of an energy market economy in China. The estimates demonstrate that there appears to be significant substitution possibilities between energy and labor when compared with international findings. Significant effects of substitution mainly come from the adoption of labor-intensive technology. Coal and electricity are significantly substitutable, while the demand for energy is elastic, in general. Finally, decomposing energy intensity shows that the budget constraint (a kind of price effect) reduces energy intensity while technological change increases energy intensity. These findings bring us to the following major implications. Firstly, it is important to understand the potential effect of new energy regulation and pricing mechanism on the future directions of China’s energy economy, which suggests that former predictions of China’s energy demand may have to be significantly discounted, and the potential effect on the global energy markets and emissions may need to be re-evaluated. Secondly, significant substitution between energy and labor is potentially good news as China possesses some of the most abundant labor sources in the world. However, because capital more easily substitutes for energy than labor, more policy incentives are needed for labor to substitute for energy. Thirdly, significant substitution between coal-electricity suggests that the effects of environmental taxes, however, may be smaller than expected due to the fact that most primary energy coming from coal. Also any shift from coal to electricity implies more investment in transmission lines rather than railways. Fourthly, energy constraints on energy supply may only slightly impede economic growth in China because the elasticity of substitution between energy and other factors is quite large compared to internationally. Fifthly, while many factors are responsible for the inelasticity of demand for energy, rising income may be one of the most important given the high levels of energy prices. Increasing energy prices may be unable to constrain energy consumption at present. Thus other energy policies need to be considered to encourage or depress certain types of energy consumption. Finally, reducing exports of energy-intensive commodities, reducing the high-level energy-using sectors, lowering capital investment and constraining imports of second-hand and obsolete equipment, would all help reduce growth in energy intensity. Politically, however, this may be at an unacceptable cost to economic growth. Although this study has conducted a series of investigations into the institutional changes and consumption behavior of China’s energy economy, continuous updating required as more data is continually added in a highly dynamic and changing environment. JEL Classifications: D24, O33, Q41.

Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Yang M. Chang / This paper empirically examines whether there is a tendency for trade-induced price convergence - in other words if price differences among city pairs separated by a border decline with increased levels of trade. The paper examines the prices of goods in cities across Brazil and Paraguay after the implementation of MERCOSUR. Evidence of a border effect - the failure of the law of one price - between Brazil and Paraguay is found. However, the data show that since the beginning of MERCOSUR, price dispersion between Brazil and Paraguay is less for those goods that are traded more between these partners.

<p>According to the different studies regarding customs unions and monetary unions, both these types of economic integration will lead to increased trade which in turn affects the price level.</p><p>In this study, the changes in the price levels across Europe are investigated in order to see if the changes can be attributed to the EMU and the Euro. By using the PPPs calculated by OECD based on the theory of Purchasing Power Parity price levels in different countries become comparable between the countries and over time. The result is that there seems to be a clear convergence towards an average European price level in the observed period 1980-2005.</p><p>In order to investigate if this convergence is an effect of the EMU a panel regression on relevant data is run and the result shows that there has been a convergence in the EMU-price level, but it can most likely not be attributed to the Euro, but other factors like for example increased degrees of openness.</p>

According to the different studies regarding customs unions and monetary unions, both these types of economic integration will lead to increased trade which in turn affects the price level. In this study, the changes in the price levels across Europe are investigated in order to see if the changes can be attributed to the EMU and the Euro. By using the PPPs calculated by OECD based on the theory of Purchasing Power Parity price levels in different countries become comparable between the countries and over time. The result is that there seems to be a clear convergence towards an average European price level in the observed period 1980-2005. In order to investigate if this convergence is an effect of the EMU a panel regression on relevant data is run and the result shows that there has been a convergence in the EMU-price level, but it can most likely not be attributed to the Euro, but other factors like for example increased degrees of openness.

The main aim of this dissertation is to investigate whether the price convergence between new and old EU member countries occurred. According to development of price level index it is shown that new member countries converge towards the EU27 and that old member countries more or less hover around their initial levels. Germany is chosen to be a benchmark country and thus the development towards Germany is also examined. The results reveal that new member states converge towards the benchmark country. However, in the case of old member states both convergence and divergence occurs. Furthermore, factors that may have an influence on such a development are investigated. The empirical research shows that GDP, hiring regulations and minimum wage and business regulation were of significance during the examined period, from 2000 to 2009 respectively.

This paper seeks to investigate the current state of market integration among European electricity day-ahead spot prices. We provide reasoning that market integration brings about benefits, such as lower average prices and increased welfare from allocative efficiency. Yet, price convergence leads to higher prices in the low-price market and to lower prices in the high-price market, which creates winners and losers and thus makes the political implementation of market integration cumbersome. In our empirical analysis, we utilize a large sample of hourly spot prices of 25 European markets for the period 01.01.2010-30.06.2015 and combine it with other relevant data such as interconnector capacities and the existence of market coupling. Firstly, empirical results from cointegration analysis indicate that market integration increased from 2010 to 2012 but then declined until 2015, most likely due to increased feed-in from intermittent renewables. Secondly, we empirically assess the speed of adjustment from price shocks and reach the conclusion that the resulting efficiency of integration is rather modest. In general, our findings suggest that integration among European electricity markets has a large potential for improvements from additional capacity investments and further promotion of market coupling. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Considering the impact of transaction costs on trade volumes and prices in Europe, in our thesis, we carried out an overview of the costs of crossing borders and an assessment of the degree of fragmentation of the product market in this world area. Throughout the analysis, we paid attention to the country and/ or industry dimension and at how country- and sector-specific patterns affect the European product market integration process. A special attention is also devoted to the model specifications and estimation techniques. Having discussed extensively the foundations of the gravity equation and the properties of the gravity model with the aim of empirical works in the first chapter of our dissertation, chapter two provides a first assessment of the extent of the integration in Europe by measuring the trade intensity via an augmented gravity equation. The study measures the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on Members’ trade in the European zone and highlights that despite the ongoing enlargement process of its free trade area, the European zone displays rather weak RTAs impacts - in comparison with what one could expect -. The chapter also highlights a number of caveats and difficulties when one wants to accurately measure the extent of trade creation brought about the RTAs in Europe. In particular, the existence of zero observations (non observed commodity flows) between country pairs might have important drawbacks in the estimations. Since disaggregated trade data can be very insightful, chapter three implements such an analysis. Using a gravity-like equation as well, it provides a border effect estimations carried out in a multi-country and multi-sector context. Our findings reveal that remaining technical barriers to trade, market structure and degree of product differentiation play an important role in the explanation of border effects. Furthermore, our results succeed to derive a strongly negative impact of nominal exchange rate volatility on trade, whereas traditional gravity specifications fail to identify this clearly – when regional dummies are introduced-. Hence, chapter two and three provide an overview, via the trade channel, of the degree of integration of the product market in Europe: While European agreements (EAs) in terms of trade are effective, bilateral trade relationships face steady impediments. As expected, intra-EAs trade increases and exports from Member States to non Member States decline. The trade obstacles have many sources. In particular, volatility of the nominal exchange rate is found to have trade-reducing effects. Our results also underscore the interest of using sector disaggregated date since we find that the degree of product differentiation and the market structure enter in the explanation of border effects. Moreover, the various approaches to harmonize the remaining technical barriers to trade on sector desegregation basis were found to act in reducing on the European Union border effect. As for chapter four, it re-visits the issue of price convergence within the EMU. Specifically, we test whether the Law of One Price (LOOP) can be validated over the period 1984-2004. Our results fail to support the LOOP for a large majority of sectors and countries under examination. Furthermore, our findings reveal half-lives of deviation from the LOOP suggesting a price adjustment which is globally less slow that commonly estimated in the literature. Indeed, the EMU is anticipated to affect the behaviour of trading firms that should result in a faster cross-border transmission of price movements across Member States. When attempting to explain the factors at work in the LOOP failure, we highlight that beside the European convergence process, the arbitrage channel explain a non negligible part of the country mean reversion in terms of relative prices. Nevertheless, mixed evidence is found for the impact of cross- country and cross-sector variables.

This dissertation consists of three research studies on capital flows to South Asian countries, estimation of interest rate pass through in Pakistan and the relative city price convergence in Pakistan. The study has used panel data techniques for empirical estimations. The first study attempts to estimate capital mobility in South Asia using saving investment relationship technique and real interest rate differentials methods as suggested by Frankel (1992). The study finds that real interest rate differentials of South Asian countries are stationary and mean reverting with North American, European and Asian countries. Although the RIDS are stationary showing strong evidence of capital mobility, the savings investment correlation is significant. The correlation of savings and investment decreased after 1990s, the post liberalization period implying increased capital mobility afterwards. The RIDs technique provided stronger evidence of than savings and investment correlation technique. The second study is on the estimation of interest rate pass through in Pakistan using two types of data sets i.e. aggregate bank type and retail bank data. The study finds that both lending, deposit and Treasury Bill (TB) rates are non stationary using aggregate data. The lending and TB rate are found to be cointegrated but deposit rate is not found to be cointegrated. The IRPT of four types of banks is found to be less than 1 but three banks showed the IRPT to be higher than 0.5. The highest IRPT is 0.72 in the case of nationalized banks followed by o.70 by privatized banks. The foreign banks IRPT are 0.60. The lowest IRPT is estimated at 0.3. The error correction model estimates overall IRPT to be 0.6 and the convergence parameter is 0.05. It is low and implies that convergence takes time. The study does not find change in 2005 after January 2005 but the speed of adjustment increased when the lending rate is below equilibrium. The retail data provides evidence that lending and deposit rates both are non stationary and cointegrated with TB rate. I found evidence of complete lending rate pass through with Spatial GLS but Phillips Loretain (1991) model shows incomplete pass through. The deposit rate is found to be incomplete and sticky with both the techniques. The third essay provides evidence on relative city price convergence in 35 Pakistani cities with 2 numeraire cities of Lahore and Karachi. The study estimates the autocorrelation coefficient with 2 techniques i.e. OLS and Spatial GLS. Furthermore city wise half life of price shock is also estimated. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of convergence in Pakistani cities with both the numeraire cities. The overall half life is estimated to be less than 6 months but there is found heterogeneity in the city wise half life estimates. The half life estimates from Spatial GLS are found to be lower than OLS. The convergence has been found even in the case of distant bordering cities. The overall results support that domestic Purchasing Power Parity holds in Pakistan.

In the first chapter, entitled “On Cross-country Differences in the Contribution of Nontraded Goods to Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations”, The contribution of nontraded goods to Real Exchange Rate (RER) fluctuations for a large number of countries that include high, middle, and low-income countries are estimated using Engel’s (1999, JPE) approaches. We also propose a new quantity dual approach which does not require any assumption regarding the functional form for either the production function or for the overall price index to estimate similar measures. All the three approaches used yield qualitatively similar estimates, but there exists a large cross-country variation in the contributions of the nontraded goods to RER fluctuations. Income, government expenditure, exchange rate volatility, and political stability are found to be negatively correlated to the contributions of nontraded goods, while inflation, consumption expenditure, and openness are positively correlated to the contributions of nontraded goods to RER fluctuations. In the second chapter, entitled “The Great Recession and Price Convergence in the United States”, We analyze the differential nature of commodity price convergence in cities in the U.S.A. before and after the Great Recession of 2008. Using quarterly retail price data for 50 commodities from 279 cities for the period 1992- 2014, we show that the speed of price convergence for almost all the commodities increased after the great recession, and that observation is more pronounced for nonperishable prices. We also observe that the price convergence disparity between the most and the least affected states widened, with the most affected areas experiencing much higher speed of price convergence than before the Great Recession. Moreover, the geographic variations of changes in rate of convergence are noteworthy. In the third chapter, entitled “Language, Topography, and Price Convergence”, we ask what else can downgrade technological innovations, improvement of transportation infrastructures, and other policy tools in boosting integrations of commodity markets? This paper analyzes the impact of two highly exogenous variables – languages and elevations - on retail price convergence which indicates the level of market integration. Using data from a very ethnic and topographically diversified country- India- we show that language and topographical variations represent intrinsic barriers to market integration and should not be overlooked. Therefore, ceteris paribus, a country with more similarities in languages and less variation in topographical features is likely to benefit more from technological improvements and from the improvement of transportation infrastructures due to the resulting faster rate of convergence.

In 1993 the internal market within the European Union was formed and ensured free movement of goods, services, capital and people. This led to the removal of trade barriers between members of the European Union. When opening up for competition, price differences between countries decreased and more jobs were created. A single currency was introduced by eleven countries in 1999 with the goal of reducing transaction costs, eliminating exchange rate risk and to further simplify trade. In 2001 Greece joined the collaboration and introduced the euro. With a single currency, price differences are expected to decrease. The aim of this study is to investigate whether a common currency has had a significant effect on reducing price dispersion or not. Two types of convergence are tested, beta and sigma convergence. 21 different product groups are included in this study and are sorted after the speed of convergence. All of the 27 EU member states are included and divided into two groups, one euro group and one non-euro group. We also examine if differences in productivity can explain price convergence. The results indicate that the introduction of a common currency did not decrease price dispersion within the majority of product groups. For the product groups in which price convergence are evident, only one product group within the euro countries and one product group within the non-euro countries have proven to be significantly positive in terms of differences in productivity.