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This dissertation investigates the long and the short run relationships as well as the causal relationship between oil price movements and exchange rates. The study uses daily data for a 12-year period commencing in January 2007 and December 2018, focuses on four net oil exporting African countries, namely, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt. The data was analysed using the time series techniques covering unit root, cointegration and causality analyses. The results of the study found that in the long run, oil prices movements are observed to be negatively related to the returns on the Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pounds and Algerian Dinar indicating that an oil price increases result in the depreciation of the exchange rates for each of the aforementioned countries. In the short run, oil prices movements are observed to be positively related to the returns on Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pounds and Algerian Dinar indicating that oil price increase results in the appreciation of the exchange rates. The causality results show evidence of bidirectional causality for the Nigerian Naira and the Angolan Dinar, unidirectional causality for the Egyptian pound and lastly no evidence of causality was found for the Angolan Kwanza. This dissertation suggests the policymakers to stabilize the effects of oil price movements through expansionary monetary policy, to shield African economies from sudden economic depression.

The paper evaluates whether the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LuSE) is weak form efficient, and whether stock price movements conform to the random walk hypothesis of non-predictability in future price movements based on past price information. The methods employed are the parametric and non-parametric individual as well as multiple variance ratio tests. In addition, the study incorporates the Runs Test. The study further examines seasonality in Zambian stock returns of the day of the week effect as well as monthly related effects. The period of analysis is from 3rd January, 2006 to 17th February, 2014. The study incorporates daily data as well as monthly data of the LuSE All share Index in order to investigate the random walk hypothesis as well as seasonality effects of the Zambian market. The period of analysis is broken down into two sub periods after accounting for multiple structural breaks in the data. The results of the study are mixed, the results of the Runs test finds the Zambian stock market price series to be mutually independent and conform to a random sequence, and are as such unpredictable. While the variance ratio tests reject the random walk hypothesis for the Zambian market, and as such, support the view of the use of technical trading strategies in order to outperform buy-and-hold strategies. The study finds no evidence of any seasonality in the data, either for daily data as well as monthly data. As such there is evidence that investors may acquire returns greater than those of the market, however, transaction costs and commissions would have to be minimal in order to exploit any patterns in the stock price series of the Lusaka stock exchange.

Please note: This degree was awarded by the University of Kwazulu-Natal. Permission was granted to archive it in this database for teaching purposes.This study reports the development and use of an original methodology to measure inflation credibility, as well as the first results of such measurement in terms of an inflation credibility barometer. The barometer is an instrument measuring the degree of acceptance of the accuracy of historic inflation figures. Despite the lack of knowledge about inflation and the low inflation credibility recorded by this first calculation of an inflation credibility barometer for South Africa, valuable information about inflation is unveiled to the authorities. The research results serve as a benchmark, but cannot be compared to earlier research, as this study represents the first systematic measurement of inflation credibility in South Africa. The barometer yields better results than the limited current international measurement of perceptions of the accuracy of historic inflation figures. The barometer (i) reports the credibility of inflation figures as a figure between zero and 100; (ii) will highlight changes in credibility over time with repeated use; (iii) can be explained easily to the general public; (iv) provides for international comparison between countries; and (v) can be used by all countries. The use of inflation credibility barometers and changes in barometer readings over time can also serve as an early warning system for changes in inflation perceptions that might feed through to inflation expectations. Sampling results used to calculate a South African inflation credibility barometer show little public understanding of the rate of inflation. Owing to an increased focus on inflation figures in countries using an inflation-targeting monetary policy, central banks entrusted with such a policy should adopt a communication strategy highlighting the calculation and measurement of the rate of inflation. This study shows that no generally accepted international benchmarks for successful central-bank communication strategies have been developed, but the use of the methodology developed in this study will assist in the assessment of the effectiveness of communication strategies. This study makes three further contributions of significance to available literature on inflation in South Africa. The first is an analysis of prices increases and inflation over a period of 85 years (1921 to 2006) and a selected comparison of salaries and remuneration over a period of 78 years (1929 to 2006). To this end data sets were developed for comparative purposes, thereby distinguishing between perception and reality about the accuracy of inflation figures over time. As this comparison has not been done before, a methodology was developed that can be used in future research. Based on these comparisons an inflation accuracy indicator (IAI) is developed for the first time. The research showed no systematic over or under-reporting of price increases, therefore confirming the general accuracy of the consumer price index (CPI) over time. As with the inflation credibility barometer, this methodology can be used internationally to confirm the accuracy of countries’ inflation figures over time. This methodology can also be used by developing countries with capacity constraints in economic modelling and forecasting. The second contribution to available literature is the first analysis of South Africa’s experience with inflation over a period of 85 years from the perspective of the central bank. This analysis highlights not only the difficulties encountered by a central bank to contain inflation, but also focuses the attention on the policy errors of the authorities in their quest to contain rising prices. The third contribution is an analysis of international and domestic initiatives aimed at improving the accuracy and measurement of inflation. The implications of these initiatives for developing countries are considered in the interest of a level international playing field between developed and developing countries. eo / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Economics / PhD / Unrestricted

In this paper, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin under speculative environment is studied. It has been seen that the market trend points out an existence of a speculative bubble. Over the course of the period from 2014 to 2018, the trend in price movements of bitcoin has proved to be strongly speculative. In that regard, investors might be curious about what drivers might be instrumental in these speculative price changes.  After reviewing of NPV, it was seen that NPV is not applicable to the case of cryptocurrencies due to their nature and lack of free cash flows to base the asset valuation to some fundamental facts. Later, LPPL model is reviewed, however, that also proved to be insufficient since it does not reflect the investor speculations and inform much about price dynamics regarding behavioral finance principles. Then, some papers from the past price fluctuations of bitcoin (for the period from 2010 to 2013) was reviewed and three key variables were determined which might explain price movements. Public interest towards Bitcoin as interest-driven, regulatory and political news about cryptocurrencies as event-driven and VIX as overall investor approach to Bitcoin market have been taken. After running regressions, the only significant variable happened to be public interest and popularity of Bitcoin. Although, for some cases, VIX variable also explain price fluctuations for some intervals, in none of the cases event-driven variable has long- terms effect on price fluctuations under speculative environment. Lastly, a robustness test is also handled considering the “weekend effect” and it has been seen public interest variable again proved to be a significant price determinant.