The stock market returns are the readily available tool for the investor to make investment decision and stock market return are affected by many accounting variables. Dividend policy measures and stock return relationship has been examined from decades but result is still a dilemma. This study is a step forward to solve this dilemma by considering Karachi stock exchange, Pakistan and Nordic stock markets and conducting a comparative study to also provide a knowledge base to readers. Dividend yield ratio, dividend payout ratio and other accounting variables are examined to find their effect on stock return. Pooled least square regression has been used on the data ranging from 2005-2008 and findings are different in different markets. Dividend policy measures (dividend yield ratio and dividend payout ratio) have significant effect on the stock return and in most countries there is significant negative relationship.

The objective of this study is to examine the dividend policy measures effect on the stock prices. A sample of 171 listed companies from Karachi Stock Exchange, Pakistan is examined for a period from 1998 to 2006. The dependent variable stock price volatility is regressed against the dividend policy measures (independent variables) e.g., dividend yield, dividend payout ratio, actual cash dividends and dividend to total assets of the firm, after controlling for firms’ profitability, liquidity, gearing, size and growth. This study finds that, dividend policy measures have strong effect on the stock market prices but results are contradictory to earlier research in Pakistan. Dividend payout and actual cash dividends have negative, significant relationship with stock prices and dividend yield have significant positive relationship with stock market prices.

This study mainly explores the effect of market states (price and returns) on the relationship between spot and futures oil prices and targets three important issues: long-run cointegration, causalities, and market efficiency. Based on previous studies exhibiting bi-directional causality between spot and futures oil prices, this study employs quantile regressions to examine the possible feedback effect in their long-run cointegration and their causalities. In particular, it allows for exploring the possible asymmetric responses between spot and futures markets. The empirical results herein find that the long-run cointegrated relationship between contemporaneous spot and futures prices is impacted by the states of the spot markets. Similarly, whether futures oil prices lead spot oil prices is relevant with the states of the futures markets. This study also examines the efficiency of crude oil markets and shows that the efficiency is related to the length of futures contracts. These findings offer some implicative suggestions and strategies.

The thesis studies determinants and adjustment paths of the people's weight from the view point of rational behavior.It followes the research approach of Becker and Murphy (1988), makes use of the utility function from Levy (2002), and corporates a budget constraint so as to establish an optimal control model for food consumption and weight, and to find out the relationship between them. Negative correlations are found between the steady-state weight and food prices, basal metabolic rate, and time discount rate.Positive correlations are found between the steady-state weight and income, marginal utility of food, and desirable weight. There is a tendancy to guide the actual steady-state weight to a much higher fluctuation margin than that of the desirable weight.In the dynamic analysis, it is also found that, regardless of an increase or decrease of the steady-state weight, both directions of adjustment show that the process of food consumption is always ``overshooting."In other words, when the steady-state weight becomes heavier (lighter), consumers first increase (decrease) their food consumption substantially. And, as the time goes by, there is a gradual decrease (increase) in food consumption owing to the fact that the food consumption is still higher (lower) than what is required for metabolism of the body that makes the weight getting to increase (decrease) till the new equilibrium is arrived.

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth the irrelevant variables out of the nonparametric regression model, but also avoid the problem of loss of efficiency related to the traditional nonparametric frequency-based method and the problem of misspecification based on parametric model.

Worldwide, unconventional resources are important sources of oil and gas when most conventional resources are declining and demand for hydrocarbons is growing. The Masters? (1979) concept of the energy resource triangle suggest that the exploitation of unconventional reservoirs is particularly sensitive to both technology and commodity price parameters. In the United States, production from unconventional reservoirs has been stimulated by a combination of Federal tax credits, technical development programs -supported by government agencies and private organizations- and high commodity prices. In this work, the effect of technology and different economic events for selected unconventional oil and gas plays in the United States was evaluated according to the concept of the Resource Triangle Theory (RTT). Studies conducted in the Austin Chalk -our textbook case- and other seven unconventional plays in the United States have supported the RTT concept that high prices and better technologies do result in more drilling activity and more oil and gas production from unconventional reservoirs. For instance, two approaches were employed to support RTT concept: Correlation study and Forecasting graphs. On the first one, correlations of commodity prices and technology with drilling activity demonstrated that periods of high commodity prices coincide with increase in unconventional producing wells approximately 75% from selected plays in this study. The second one shows that high prices and technological advances also translate into additional oil and gas production and reserves. This behavior was observed through the analysis of a series of decline production curves using a VBA program in Excel that compute oil and gas production volumes and their corresponding economic values under specific conditions. The results indicated that maximum value of approximately $50 billion oil plus gas would have been possible using conventional hydraulic fracturing technology only. Moreover, subsequent episodes of high commodity allow the introduction of new technologies that have boosted even more oil and gas production from the plays. Great examples are the use of horizontal and multilateral wells which has opened up additional areas for development, such as the Barnett Shale and the Bakken Shale. Using horizontal wells has also revived older plays, such as the Austin Chalk. The combination of horizontal well technology and water fracturing technology has led to a dramatic increase in the development of both oil and gas from shale reservoirs. Current production schemes suggest that the plays could produce an additional of $320 billion when producing at rates higher than 5 BOE/day. Our results confirm the concept of the resource triangle that natural gas and oil resources can be produced from low quality resources when either product prices increase or when better technology is available. The seven oil and gas plays studied in this research are demonstrative examples.

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<p>I den här studien analyseras hur Kinas konsumtion av olja påverkas av förändringar i oljepris och inkomst. Resultat visar att deras konsumtion av olja i förhållande till BNP per capita är relativt låg samt att deras fordonskoncentration är låg. År 2004 konsumerade Kina 14 procent mindre olja per capita än vad genomsnittligt land gör vid samma BNP per capitanivå. Fordonskoncentration år 2003 var 25 fordon per 1000 invånare, denna studie visar att om de hade haft en genomsnittlig fordonskoncentration skulle denna siffra varit 40 samma sätt till att vara på Deras ovan nämnda relativt låga fordonskoncentration och konsumtion av olja, kan peka mot att en fortsatt konsumtionsökning.</p><p>År 2004 var den globala konsumtionen av olja i genomsnitt 81 miljoner fat dagligen (mb/d) och Kinas uppgick till 6.7 mb/d (BPstats ). Ett antal prognoser finns gjorda angående Kinas framtida konsumtion av olja. Enligt EIA 2005, kommer den att uppgå till 12.3 mb/d år 2020 och enligt IEA 2005 till 11.2 mb/d år 2020.</p><p>Den empiriska undersökningen i denna studie belyser med signifikanta resultat hur Kinas konsumtion av olja påverkas utav pris- och inkomstförändringar. De ekonometriska resultaten i denna studie indikerar att deras konsumtion av olja är mer känslig för inkomst- än prisförändringar. Den långsiktiga inkomstelasticiteten uppmättes i den här studien till 1.317 och den långsiktiga priselasticiteten till -0.633. Med hänvisning till detta och ceteris paribus, kan en inkomstökning på 100 procent över perioden 2005-2020 leda till att Kina år 2020 konsumerar 17.6 mb/d. Således kan prognoserna från EIA (2005) och IEA (2005) vara underestimerade.</p><p>De inkomst- och priselasticitet som är estimerade i denna studie konfirmerar Dargay och Gatelys resultat från 1994 att ett mindre utvecklat lands konsumtion av olja påverkas mer av förändringar i inkomst än i pris.</p>

<p> </p><p>This bachelor thesis examines the credit market behaviour in the Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway), post financial liberalization, during the late 1980´s and early 1990´s. The explanatory variables used to determine bank lending are the time lags of bank lending, property prices, GDP and interest rates.</p><p>The variables’ impact on bank lending is tested and displayed by using an OLS model,presented by Goodhart and Hofmann (2007), and descriptive statistics.</p><p>The rolling OLS regressions show that during times of financial liberalization, property prices had an increased effect on real bank lending in Sweden and Finland. The same investigation method supports that although positive, property prices’ effect on lending did not increase in Norway and Denmark. Even so, investigations suggest that one should be careful to assume too many similarities between the countries in the causing factors of the crises. The crises occurred roughly during the same time, and the geographical connection is obvious, however each country’s individual factors differed from each other.</p><p> </p>

Anticipating changes to public transportation ridership demand is important to planning for and meeting service goals and maintaining system viability. These changes may occur in the short- or long-term; extensive academic work has focused on bettering long-term forecasting procedures while improvements to short-term forecasting techniques have not received significant academic attention. This dissertation combines traditional forecasting approaches with multivariate regression to develop a transferable short-term public transportation ridership forecasting model that incorporates fuel price as a prediction parameter. The research herein addresses 254 US transit systems from bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail modes, and uses complementary methods to account for seasonal and non-seasonal ridership fluctuations. Models were built and calibrated using monthly data from 2002 to 2007 and validated using a six-month dataset from early 2008. Using variable transformations, classical data decomposition techniques, multivariate regression, and a variety of forecasting model validation measures, this work establishes a benchmark for future research into transferable transit ridership forecasting model improvements that may aid public transportation system planners in an era when, due to fuel price concerns, global warming and green initiatives, and other impetuses, transit use is seeing a resurgence in popularity. / text