無 / The focus of this dissertation maintains three parts. The first contribution is mainly to improve and modify the approach to measuring the financial liberalization index based on the financial services commitments which have submitted to the WTO. These improvements include further scoring for partial commitments, covering four modes of supply on trade in services and all activities listed in the Annex on Financial Services, and assigning weights to four modes of supply. The second purpose of this dissertation attempts to investigate the effect of financial liberalization on economic growth by employing our newly constructed financial liberalization index under the WTO. The third aim is concerned with the examination of what determines a country’s level of commitments in financial services under the WTO. Our newly calculated financial liberalization index displays that the degree of financial liberalization is positively correlated with income level under modes 1, mode 2, and mode 3, but not mode 4. We also detect that East Asian and Pacific, and Latin American and Caribbean countries are inclined to accept more liberal commitments on mode 3 compared to other modes, whereas European and Central Asian, and North American countries tend to approve a smaller degree of liberalization on mode 3 as compared with mode 1 and mode 2. In addition, the liberalization in relation to market access and national treatment is highly correlated. Furthermore, a member country with a high degree of liberalization in one of the two financial subsectors, insurance and banking, tends to also have a high degree of liberalization in the other subsector. There are two main empirical results. First, we find that there is a positive relationship between banking sector competition and our new measure of liberalization index of banking services, and between economic growth and banking industry competition. The commitment of a country to a more liberal banking sector does serve to increase its growth rate. This positive effect of banking liberalization on growth is reinforced when a government has more supervisory power and is more effective. This positive effect, however, is alleviated when there are more stringent requirements regarding capital regulations and higher level of institutional environment quality. In addition, the positive effects are assuaged when the liberalization is implemented in East Asian and Pacific, and Latin American and Caribbean countries. Furthermore, we detect that the relationship between economic growth and overall liberalization of financial services trade is better described as the form of a U-shaped curve. Our second empirical result is that European and Central Asian countries, high-income countries, higher per capita GDP, higher financial trade size, greater control of corruption, lower degree of corruption, more power of the legal system, higher quality of bureaucracy, lower level of perceived corruption, and more liberal trade and financial policy altogether contribute to the explanation of greater degree of liberalization in banking services commitments, whereas Latin American and Caribbean countries, countries with membership in either Cairns Group or so-called MFA group, higher volatility of inflation rate, and more restriction on bank’s activities in securities, insurance, real estate, and nonfinancial firms entirely play a role in the determination of lower level of banking services commitments.

<p> </p><p>This bachelor thesis examines the credit market behaviour in the Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway), post financial liberalization, during the late 1980´s and early 1990´s. The explanatory variables used to determine bank lending are the time lags of bank lending, property prices, GDP and interest rates.</p><p>The variables’ impact on bank lending is tested and displayed by using an OLS model,presented by Goodhart and Hofmann (2007), and descriptive statistics.</p><p>The rolling OLS regressions show that during times of financial liberalization, property prices had an increased effect on real bank lending in Sweden and Finland. The same investigation method supports that although positive, property prices’ effect on lending did not increase in Norway and Denmark. Even so, investigations suggest that one should be careful to assume too many similarities between the countries in the causing factors of the crises. The crises occurred roughly during the same time, and the geographical connection is obvious, however each country’s individual factors differed from each other.</p><p> </p>

La relation entre le développement financier et la croissance économique a suscité une attention particulière dans la littérature économique durant ces dernières décennies. Notre recherche tente d’apprécier les effets du processus de libéralisation du système financier au Maroc sur la croissance économique. Les résultats obtenus montrent la nécessité de mettre en place des mécanismes permettant d’optimiser les répercussions positives de la libéralisation financière sur l’économie réelle. Ainsi définie, la libéralisation financière est perçue dans certains pays développés au cours de la décennie 70, tantôt comme une stratégie idéologiquement élaborée par les autorités concernées, tantôt comme une contrainte imposée par le marché. Son évolution ne s’est étendue à la quasi-totalité des pays en développement que durant la décennie 80, avec l’institution des Programmes d’Ajustement Structurel et le déclenchement du processus de mondialisation. Conscient du rôle majeur que peut jouer le secteur financier dans la dynamisation de l’activité économique nationale, les autorités marocaines ont lancé depuis le début des années 90 un processus continu et ininterrompu de réformes à travers notamment la levée des contraintes qui pesaient sur le système bancaire marocain, sur le développement du marché des capitaux et sur la libéralisation du mode de financement du Trésor. La finalité étant de développer la physionomie du secteur financier, pour en faire un instrument efficient de mobilisation de l’épargne, et de sa canalisation vers le financement de l’investissement d’une croissance durable, génératrice de richesse et réductrice de de chômage et de pauvreté. / The relationship between financial development and economic growth has attracted particular attention in the economic literature in recent decades. Our research tries to assess the effects of liberalization of the financial system in Morocco on economic growth. The results show the need to put in place mechanisms to optimize and strengthen the positive impact of financial liberalization on the real economy. Thus defined, financial liberalization is seen in some developed countries during the 70s, sometimes ideologically as a strategy developed by the authorities concerned, sometimes as a constraint imposed by the market. Its evolution has intensified and spread to almost all developing countries during the 80s, with the institution of Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAP) and the outbreak of the globalization process. Recognizing the important role that the financial sector can play in boosting national economic activity, the Moroccan authorities have launched, since the early 90s, a continuous and uninterrupted process of reform, in particular through the lifting of constraints on the Moroccan bank system, on the development of capital market liberalization and the way to finance the Treasury. The aim is to develop and improve the face of the financial sector to make it an efficient instrument of mobilization and development of savings and its channeling towards the financing of investment for strong, sustainable growth, generating wealth and reducing unemployment and poverty.

Previous studies seem to agree that increased competition would cause riskier banking behavior. This dissertation shows that when competition intensifies, banks have greater incentives for screening loan applicants, and thus loan quality may improve. In addition, competition fosters banks to rely less on collateral requirements. Hence, banks may be less vulnerable to asset price shocks. The empirical chapter finds evidence of loan quality improvement after removing cross-border entry restrictions in the EU. There is also evidence that banks' behavior across EU countries has converged. / Ph. D.

This study basically analyzes timing, sequencing and pace of the financial liberalization experience of the Turkish economy in the 1980s and evaluates its implications for the crises in the Turkish economy since the 1990s. The objectives of this study are threefold: Firstly, it aims to reveal the main policy objectives and political factors pushing the government to take capital account liberalization decision in 1989. It is concluded that domestic decision makers have shaped and taken the decision of capital account liberalization in 1989, while the interaction of economic and political factors has played a major role in its timing. Secondly, it examines the extent to which economic and political institutional weaknesses in the Turkish economy, which generated inappropriate sequencing of financial liberalization policies in the 1980s, can be held responsible for the crises of 2000 and 2001 crises. It is concluded that financial liberalization policies were inappropriately sequenced, as domestic financial market and capital account liberalization were not accompanied or preceded by macroeconomic stability and financial sector institutional reforms such as prudential regulation and supervision of the banking sector. These factors have been instrumental in the crises episodes in Turkey through contributing to an environment conducive to crises. Thirdly, it aims to analyze whether there exists a clear association between weaknesses in the regulation and supervision of the banking sector and banking crises through an empirical analysis. It is concluded that the nature of the banking crises is more associated with the institutional structure of the financial system rather than macroeconomic conditions of the economy.

Depuis que la libéralisation financière a été adoptée par la plupart des pays de la région Moyen Orient et Afrique du Nord (MENA), le nombre de crises bancaires n’a pas cessé d’augmenter. Ce qui nous amène à analyser la relation entre libéralisation financière et les crises bancaires. Notre thèse s’attache à mettre en évidence le rôle important de la libéralisation financière sur les crises bancaires. Ce travail traite l’une des principales causes de l’échec de processus de libéralisation financière, à savoir la négligence du rôle primordial que jouent les institutions juridiques, économiques et politiques dans la réalisation de la stabilité financière. Afin de démontrer l’importance de l’organisation institutionnelle, nous avons vérifié l’impact négatif des défaillances institutionnelles présentes dans les pays de la région MENA sur l’occurrence des crises bancaires systémiques. L’objectif de notre recherche est de démontrer que les pays de la région MENA détiennent des caractéristiques institutionnelles très différentes et que pour favoriser l’application des réformes financières libérales, il est désormais indispensable d’envisager des réformes institutionnelles et règlementaires bien adéquates avec les conditions sociales, politiques de chacun des pays de la région MENA. / Since financial liberalization has been adopted by most countries of the Region Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the number of banking crises has not ceased to increase. This leads us to analyze the relationship between financial liberalization and banking crises. Our thesis aims to highlight the important role of financial liberalization on banking crises. This work addresses one of the main causes of the failure of liberalization process Financial namely the negligence of the primordial role played by legal institutions, economic and political in achieving financial stability. To demonstrate the importance of institutional organization, we verified the pejorative impact of institutional failure present in the countries of the MENA region on the occurrence of systemic banking crises. The objective of our research is to demonstrate that the countries of the MENA region hold very different institutional characteristics and to facilitate the implementation of financial reforms liberal, it is henceforth essential to consider well adequate institutional and regulatory reforms with, social political conditions of each country of the MENA region.

O presente trabalho busca avaliar os efeitos da liberalização financeira externa da economia brasileira sobre variáveis macroeconômicas como oferta de crédito ao setor privado, produto nominal, reservas internacionais, risco-país, taxa de juros e volatilidade cambial, no decorrer do período que vai de 1995 a 2014, por meio da estimação de dois modelos econométricos assentados em Vetores Autorregressivos: o primeiro com Mudanças Markovianas de Regime (MS-VAR), e o segundo com correção de erros vetorial (VEC). Além disso, realiza revisão da literatura teórica e empírica acerca da liberalização financeira externa e seus desdobramentos; apresenta os indicadores de abertura (ICC) - presente nos trabalhos de Cardoso e Goldfajn (1998), Soihet (2002), Laan (2007) e Cunha e Laan (2013), dentre outros - e de integração financeira (IIF); e expõe a história do processo brasileiro de liberalização financeira. No que tange aos resultados, ambas as metodologias econométricas apontam que: uma reversão do ciclo financeiro global impacta negativamente as duas dimensões da liberalização financeira externa da economia brasileira; um avanço da desregulamentação não gera efeitos significativos, o que contrasta com a posição favorável à plena conversibilidade da conta capital e financeira, defendida por Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004); um aumento no grau de integração financeira engendra desdobramentos macroeconômicos problemáticos. No que tange ao modelo MS-VAR, sublinha-se que as consequências de um choque liberalizante são mais profundas em momentos de reversão do ciclo financeiro global, bem como que a endogeneidade dos controles, nos termos de Cardoso e Goldfajn (1998), é contingente à fase vigente do ciclo financeiro global. Quanto ao modelo VEC, destaca-se a precedência, no sentido de Granger, da variação da volatilidade financeira internacional frente à variação grau de integração financeira da economia brasileira, e deste frente à variação do risco-país. Conclui que, se não é possível descartar os benefícios da abertura financeira, há que se redobrar a atenção frente a seus riscos, considerando também as consequências negativas em termos de grau de integração financeira e a influência do ciclo financeiro global. / This study aims to evaluate the external financial liberalization of the Brazilian economy on macroeconomic variables such as country risk, credit supply to the private sector, exchange rate volatility, interest rate, international reserves and nominal product, during the period from 1995 to 2014, by estimating two Vectors Autoregressive econometric models: the first with Markov-Switching (MS-VAR), and the second with Vector Error-Correction (VEC). In addition, this study aimed to: conduct a review of theoretical and empirical literature about external financial liberalization and its consequences; present financial opening index (ICC) - present in the work of Cardoso and Goldfajn (1998), Soihet (2002), Laan (2007) and Cunha and Laan (2013), among others - and financial integration index (IIF); and exposing the history of Brazilian process of financial liberalization. With respect to the results, both econometric methodologies show that: a reversal of the global financial cycle adversely impacts the two dimensions of external financial liberalization of the Brazilian economy; an advance of deregulation does not generate significant effects, in contrast to the position in favor of capital account full convertibility, advocated by Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004); an increase in financial integration creates problematic macroeconomic developments. Regarding the MS-VAR model, it points out that the consequences of a liberalizing shock are deeper in times of reversal of global financial cycle and that the endogeneity of capital controls, from Cardoso and Goldfajn (1998), is contingent on current phase of the global financial cycle. Regarding the VEC model, there is precedence, in Granger terms, of the international financial volatility variation over the Brazilian economy financial degree variation, and from it to country risk variation. It is concluded that if it cannot be dismissed the benefits of financial openness, we must exercise caution against its risks, also considering the negative consequences in terms of financial integration degree and the influence of global financial cycle.

Esta tese consiste de uma introdução geral e três ensaios independentes, mas inter-relacionados. O capítulo 2 aborda o tema da liberalização financeira no âmbito das economias emergentes, enfocando sua ligação com o crescimento econômico no Brasil. Com base em um modelo de vetores auto-regressivos (VAR), argumenta-se que as conexões entre liberalização financeira e crescimento econômico devem ser não tão fortes quanto o suposto em teoria, mesmo no curto prazo. Mostra-se que a experiência brasileira de liberalização financeira, medida através de dois índices independentes, não imprimiu um viés de redução sobre a taxa de juros, enquanto também não impôs um efeito altista sobre a taxa de crescimento do PIB. Nesse caso, liberalização financeira não parece ser um substituto para políticas estratégicas mais voltadas a induzir o desenvolvimento econômico, dado que proporciona apenas pequenos ganhos que tendem, todavia, a ser acompanhados por efeitos colaterais indesejados – o resultado líquido acaba não sendo relevante no sistema. O capítulo conclui que liberalização financeira deve ser interpretada de acordo com a visão demand-following, a qual sugere que a direção causal fundamental parte do nível de atividade econômica à liberalização financeira. Segue que tentativas de estabilizar as finanças de uma economia podem se dar através da imposição de certos limites aos movimentos desregulados de capitais como précondição para o apropriado desenvolvimento em economias emergentes. Por sua vez, o capítulo 3 explora a questão da racionalidade subjacente à acumulação de reservas no Brasil, uma tendência recente identificada entre importantes economias emergentes. Esse ponto é imediatamente relevante à discussão oferecida no capítulo anterior, dado que países emergentes parecem conduzir políticas macroeconômicas distintas e responder diferentemente aos desafios da globalização financeira, vis-à-vis o cenário de fluxos de capitais desregulados ao redor do mundo. A investigação sugere que a política de reservas internacionais no Brasil não mudou com a introdução de regime cambial flutuante de facto em 1999, ao contrário do esperado em teoria. Ao mesmo tempo, a política de governo relacionada à taxa cambial e acumulação de reservas no Brasil não pode ser relacionada a uma ativa política export-led growth conduzida pela autoridade monetária. Da mesma maneira, a competitividade internacional do País não parece estar sendo particularmente significativa para explicar a racionalidade da política externa brasileira. Além disso, o processo de integração financeira do Brasil com o exterior parece não ter exigido níveis mais altos de reservas, enquanto a desregulação financeira não consegue explicar a estocagem de reservas soberanas. A evolução da política de reservas deve, entretanto, ser avaliada considerando o processo de amplificação generalizada das operações externas registradas no balanço de pagamentos. Estas proporcionaram o excesso de liquidez no período sob revisão, em especial após 2003, principalmente relacionado ao exógeno (e inerentemente instável) dinamismo dos fluxos de capitais. O capítulo 4 lida com uma importante questão do gerenciamento externo de uma economia emergente, qual seja, o custo fiscal associado aos instrumentos adotados pela autoridade monetária. Ainda que uma política de acumulação de reservas possa ser benéfica, como forma de reduzir os efeitos de uma crise externa que poderia afetar uma economia, é necessário identificar os parâmetros e limites prudenciais da política de reservas. Para tanto, esse ensaio tenta identificar o nível ótimo de reservas precaucionais, no sentido de maximização dos gastos fiscais no Brasil. Como subsídio, os determinantes-chave das reservas brasileiras, identificados no capítulo anterior, permitem uma reflexão mais robusta sobre custos e benefícios de tal instrumento da política de gerenciamento externo de economias emergentes na era pós-Bretton Woods. Essencialmente, as diferentes medidas e simulações desenvolvidas oferecem a mesma inferência sobre a inadequação dos estoques de moeda conversível do Brasil, mantidos em excesso a partir do primeiro semestre de 2008. Adicionalmente, o exercício econométrico não suporta a assertiva de que a acumulação de níveis altos de reservas seja fortemente significativa na determinação do risco-soberano e dos custos de captação externa no País. Além disso, grandes montantes de reservas parecem estar relacionados a um elevado custo fiscal derivado da política de esterilização associada. Conclui-se pela necessidade de se adaptar o gerenciamento externo do Brasil a suas instituições. / This thesis consists of a general introduction and three independent but interrelated papers. Chapter 2 addresses the issue of financial liberalization amongst the emerging countries, concerned with its linkage to economic growth in Brazil. Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) method, it argues that the linkages between financial liberalization and economic growth might be not as strong as supposed in theory, even over the short run. In fact, the Brazilian process of financial liberalization, measured by two independent indexes, has not imposed a downward bias on interest rates, while also has not implemented an upward effect on the GDP growth rate. It follows that financial liberalization is not a substitute for strategic policies designed to boost economic development, since it can offer only small gains but which tend to come accompanied with undesired side effects – net effect may be not as relevant as supposed initially in the economic system. From a core perspective, we conclude that financial liberalization must be interpreted according to a ‘demand-following’ view, which suggests the causal direction goes from economic development to financial liberalization. It follows that attempts to stabilize one economies’ finance could come by imposing certain limits on the free movement of capital as a precondition for the proper development of emerging nations. Chapter 3 explores the rationale behind reserves accumulation in Brazil, a recent trend identified among important emerging countries. This is immediately relevant to the discussion offered in chapter 1, as emerging countries seem to run distinct macroeconomic policies and respond differently to the challenges of the financial globalization, vis-à-vis the scenario of unregulated capital flows worldwide. The investigation suggests that reserves policy in Brazil has not changed with the introduction of a de facto free floating exchange regime in 1999, as theoretically expected. In this context, the government policy regarding the exchange rate and the reserve holdings in Brazil cannot be linked to an active export-led growth policy run by the monetary authority. Likewise, financial integration does not seem to have required higher levels of reserves, while financial deregulation does not explain the building of reserves in Brazil. Furthermore, international competitiveness does not seem to have been particularly significant to explain the rationale of the Brazilian external policy. Developments in the reserves policy,, though, should be seen against the background of a general widening of the balance of payments providing an excess of liquidity in the period under review, especially after 2003, mainly related to the exogenous (and inherently unstable) dynamism of capital flows. Finally, chapter 4 deals with the huge problem of external management of an emerging economy, namely the fiscal cost associated with the instruments adopted by the monetary authority. Even though a policy on accumulation of reserves may be positive, in order to reduce the effects of an external crisis that would affect the country, it is necessary to identify the parameters and prudential limits of the reserve policy. For such, it addresses the subject of precautionary reserve holdings, in an attempt to identify optimal levels and maximized fiscal expenditures to Brazil. The key relevant factors determining the Brazilian reserves identified in the second essay, will also allow for a more robust reflection about costs and benefits of such an instrument of external policy management in the post-Bretton Woods era. Essentially, the different adequacy measures and the model-based simulations offer the same inference about the inadequacy of the Brazilian reserve holdings, kept in excessive levels by 2008. Furthermore, as the econometric exercise does not provide much support for the claim that accumulating high levels of reserves is strongly significant to determine the sovereign risk and the costs of external funding for the country; and further, it seems to be related to a huge fiscal cost associated to the sterilization policy, the main conclusion points to the need to adapt the precautionary external management of Brazil to its own institutions, as it seems to run an external policy beyond its conditions.

Cette thèse se focalise sur quatre aspects de la dynamique des réformes financières, qu'elle catégorise en deux parties. La première partie analyse d'une part, l'effet de la cohérence financière sur l'afflux de capitaux étrangers et d'autre part, la relation entre le sentier de croissance et la trajectoire de réformes financières adoptée par les pays. La seconde partie utilise un cadre coût-bénéfice pour évaluer si le comportement des décideurs politiques en matière de réformes est inspirée de la dynamique d'une frontière spécifique de libéralisation; elle analyse aussi dans quelle mesure les phénomènes d'apprentissage ainsi que l'évolution des croyances des décideurs politiques à propos de l'effet de la libéralisation après l'effondrement du système de Bretton Woods contribuent à l'explication de la dynamique des réformes financières dans les pays. Le premier chapitre évalue l'analyse de la complémentarité des réformes financières sur l'afflux de capitaux étrangers. Dans ce chapitre, nous analysons la relation entre la cohérence du système de réformes financières et l'afflux de capitaux étrangers (investissements directs étrangers et investissements portefeuille). Nos résultats suggèrent que la manière dont les réformes financières ont été mises en oeuvre affecte significativement les afflux de capitaux étrangers. Le chapitre 2 de cette thèse analyse comment le sentier ou la trajectoire complète de réformes financières poursuivies par les pays pourrait influencer leur sentier de croissance. Il est basé sur l'idée pertinente de séquençage des réformes avancé par Dewatripont et Roland (1994). Le troisième chapitre de cette partie examine si les pays apprennent à partir d'une norme spécifique de la libéralisation financière et évalue comment le gain de croissance de la libéralisation est affectée dans ce contexte. Les principaux résultats sont que lorsque les pays atteignent la frontière (mondiale ou régionale) de libéralisation, ils obtiennent de meilleurs résultats en terme de croissance du PIB ainsi que la stabilité financière. Le quatrième chapitre explore comment la dynamique des politiques à l'égard des marchés financiers est expliquée par l'apprentissage et par l'évolution des croyances des décideurs à propos des effets de la libéralisation du compte de capital. Nous trouvons que les croyances des décideurs quant aux effets sur la croissance des politiques à l'égard des marchés financiers ont évolué de façon non linéaire. / This thesis focuses on four aspects of financial reforms dynamics which could be categorized into two parts. The first part analyzes the effect of the coherence of financial reforms of international capital inflows and the relation between the path of economic growth and the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries. The second part uses a cost-benefit framework to analyze whether countries learn from a normative financial liberalization frontier; and shows how learning and the evolution of beliefs have contributed to explained financial markets'policy choices after the collapse of Bretton Woods' system. The first chapter evaluates how financial reforms' complementarity affects international capital inflows. The empirical results suggest that the manner in which financial reforms are implemented matters. Particularly, complementarity increases FDI inflows by 0.10 %. The second chapter analyzes how the full trajectory or sequence of financial reforms followed by countries affects their growth path. It is based on a very relevant argument for sequencing reforms puts--forward by Dewatripont and Roland (1994). We find that the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries affects the level of GDP per capita growth. The third chapter of this part investigates whether countries learn from a specific norm. The main results are that when countries reach the time specific world (or regional) frontier of liberalization, they perform better in terms of GDP per capita growth as well as financial stability •of financial liberalization and evaluates how the growth payoff of liberalization is affected. The fourth chapter explores how the dynamics of policies towards capital (financial) markets are explained by learning and by the evolution of policymakers beliefs about the effects of capital control or capital account liberalization strategies. We find that policymakers' beliefs about the growth effects of policies towards financial markets evolve non-linearly and that radical changes policymakers' beliefs about the superiority of capital account liberalization policies take time.

O presente trabalho busca avaliar os efeitos da liberalização financeira externa da economia brasileira sobre variáveis macroeconômicas como oferta de crédito ao setor privado, produto nominal, reservas internacionais, risco-país, taxa de juros e volatilidade cambial, no decorrer do período que vai de 1995 a 2014, por meio da estimação de dois modelos econométricos assentados em Vetores Autorregressivos: o primeiro com Mudanças Markovianas de Regime (MS-VAR), e o segundo com correção de erros vetorial (VEC). Além disso, realiza revisão da literatura teórica e empírica acerca da liberalização financeira externa e seus desdobramentos; apresenta os indicadores de abertura (ICC) - presente nos trabalhos de Cardoso e Goldfajn (1998), Soihet (2002), Laan (2007) e Cunha e Laan (2013), dentre outros - e de integração financeira (IIF); e expõe a história do processo brasileiro de liberalização financeira. No que tange aos resultados, ambas as metodologias econométricas apontam que: uma reversão do ciclo financeiro global impacta negativamente as duas dimensões da liberalização financeira externa da economia brasileira; um avanço da desregulamentação não gera efeitos significativos, o que contrasta com a posição favorável à plena conversibilidade da conta capital e financeira, defendida por Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004); um aumento no grau de integração financeira engendra desdobramentos macroeconômicos problemáticos. No que tange ao modelo MS-VAR, sublinha-se que as consequências de um choque liberalizante são mais profundas em momentos de reversão do ciclo financeiro global, bem como que a endogeneidade dos controles, nos termos de Cardoso e Goldfajn (1998), é contingente à fase vigente do ciclo financeiro global. Quanto ao modelo VEC, destaca-se a precedência, no sentido de Granger, da variação da volatilidade financeira internacional frente à variação grau de integração financeira da economia brasileira, e deste frente à variação do risco-país. Conclui que, se não é possível descartar os benefícios da abertura financeira, há que se redobrar a atenção frente a seus riscos, considerando também as consequências negativas em termos de grau de integração financeira e a influência do ciclo financeiro global. / This study aims to evaluate the external financial liberalization of the Brazilian economy on macroeconomic variables such as country risk, credit supply to the private sector, exchange rate volatility, interest rate, international reserves and nominal product, during the period from 1995 to 2014, by estimating two Vectors Autoregressive econometric models: the first with Markov-Switching (MS-VAR), and the second with Vector Error-Correction (VEC). In addition, this study aimed to: conduct a review of theoretical and empirical literature about external financial liberalization and its consequences; present financial opening index (ICC) - present in the work of Cardoso and Goldfajn (1998), Soihet (2002), Laan (2007) and Cunha and Laan (2013), among others - and financial integration index (IIF); and exposing the history of Brazilian process of financial liberalization. With respect to the results, both econometric methodologies show that: a reversal of the global financial cycle adversely impacts the two dimensions of external financial liberalization of the Brazilian economy; an advance of deregulation does not generate significant effects, in contrast to the position in favor of capital account full convertibility, advocated by Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004); an increase in financial integration creates problematic macroeconomic developments. Regarding the MS-VAR model, it points out that the consequences of a liberalizing shock are deeper in times of reversal of global financial cycle and that the endogeneity of capital controls, from Cardoso and Goldfajn (1998), is contingent on current phase of the global financial cycle. Regarding the VEC model, there is precedence, in Granger terms, of the international financial volatility variation over the Brazilian economy financial degree variation, and from it to country risk variation. It is concluded that if it cannot be dismissed the benefits of financial openness, we must exercise caution against its risks, also considering the negative consequences in terms of financial integration degree and the influence of global financial cycle.