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Cette thèse se focalise sur quatre aspects de la dynamique des réformes financières, qu'elle catégorise en deux parties. La première partie analyse d'une part, l'effet de la cohérence financière sur l'afflux de capitaux étrangers et d'autre part, la relation entre le sentier de croissance et la trajectoire de réformes financières adoptée par les pays. La seconde partie utilise un cadre coût-bénéfice pour évaluer si le comportement des décideurs politiques en matière de réformes est inspirée de la dynamique d'une frontière spécifique de libéralisation; elle analyse aussi dans quelle mesure les phénomènes d'apprentissage ainsi que l'évolution des croyances des décideurs politiques à propos de l'effet de la libéralisation après l'effondrement du système de Bretton Woods contribuent à l'explication de la dynamique des réformes financières dans les pays. Le premier chapitre évalue l'analyse de la complémentarité des réformes financières sur l'afflux de capitaux étrangers. Dans ce chapitre, nous analysons la relation entre la cohérence du système de réformes financières et l'afflux de capitaux étrangers (investissements directs étrangers et investissements portefeuille). Nos résultats suggèrent que la manière dont les réformes financières ont été mises en oeuvre affecte significativement les afflux de capitaux étrangers. Le chapitre 2 de cette thèse analyse comment le sentier ou la trajectoire complète de réformes financières poursuivies par les pays pourrait influencer leur sentier de croissance. Il est basé sur l'idée pertinente de séquençage des réformes avancé par Dewatripont et Roland (1994). Le troisième chapitre de cette partie examine si les pays apprennent à partir d'une norme spécifique de la libéralisation financière et évalue comment le gain de croissance de la libéralisation est affectée dans ce contexte. Les principaux résultats sont que lorsque les pays atteignent la frontière (mondiale ou régionale) de libéralisation, ils obtiennent de meilleurs résultats en terme de croissance du PIB ainsi que la stabilité financière. Le quatrième chapitre explore comment la dynamique des politiques à l'égard des marchés financiers est expliquée par l'apprentissage et par l'évolution des croyances des décideurs à propos des effets de la libéralisation du compte de capital. Nous trouvons que les croyances des décideurs quant aux effets sur la croissance des politiques à l'égard des marchés financiers ont évolué de façon non linéaire. / This thesis focuses on four aspects of financial reforms dynamics which could be categorized into two parts. The first part analyzes the effect of the coherence of financial reforms of international capital inflows and the relation between the path of economic growth and the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries. The second part uses a cost-benefit framework to analyze whether countries learn from a normative financial liberalization frontier; and shows how learning and the evolution of beliefs have contributed to explained financial markets'policy choices after the collapse of Bretton Woods' system. The first chapter evaluates how financial reforms' complementarity affects international capital inflows. The empirical results suggest that the manner in which financial reforms are implemented matters. Particularly, complementarity increases FDI inflows by 0.10 %. The second chapter analyzes how the full trajectory or sequence of financial reforms followed by countries affects their growth path. It is based on a very relevant argument for sequencing reforms puts--forward by Dewatripont and Roland (1994). We find that the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries affects the level of GDP per capita growth. The third chapter of this part investigates whether countries learn from a specific norm. The main results are that when countries reach the time specific world (or regional) frontier of liberalization, they perform better in terms of GDP per capita growth as well as financial stability •of financial liberalization and evaluates how the growth payoff of liberalization is affected. The fourth chapter explores how the dynamics of policies towards capital (financial) markets are explained by learning and by the evolution of policymakers beliefs about the effects of capital control or capital account liberalization strategies. We find that policymakers' beliefs about the growth effects of policies towards financial markets evolve non-linearly and that radical changes policymakers' beliefs about the superiority of capital account liberalization policies take time.

Le but de l’étude est de mettre en question la capture de régulation par les intérêts concentrés de la finance dans les débats sur les mesures à prendre après la crise du crédit partie des États-Unis en 2008. Les décideurs publics de ce pays et de l’Union européenne ont entrepris des efforts de réforme ambitieux pour mieux protéger les consommateurs de services financiers. Les débats au Congrès des États-Unis et au Parlement européen se sont achevés sur des décisions importantes concernant la réglementation du crédit. Fortement politisés, ils avaient suscité un lobbying intense des groupes d’intérêt de la finance et de la société civile, où normalement ces derniers auraient été tenus pour beaucoup plus faibles que leurs adversaires. Paradoxalement, une coalition de la société civile aux moyens modestes a réussi à convaincre les décideurs de la nécessité du changement et à contrecarrer les efforts du lobby financier pour l’empêcher. Qu’est-ce qui explique que des acteurs faibles et périphériques l’ont emporté sur des acteurs riches et puissants ? / The goal of this study is to examine and challenge questions of regulatory capture by concentrated industry interests in the reform debates in response to the credit crisis which originated in the US in 2008. Policymakers in the EU and the US set ambitious reform efforts in motion to better protect consumers of financial services. Decisions to reform credit regulations marked the end of highly politicized reform debates in the US Congress as well as in the European Parliament, involving lobbying from business associations and civil society groups, in which proponents of reforms would normally have been considered to be much weaker than their opponents. Paradoxically, a poorly-resourced civil society coalition successfully lobbied decision-makers and countered industry attempts to prevent regulatory change. What, then, explains that rather weak and peripheral actors prevailed over more resourceful and dominant actors?

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-28T20:13:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-Lavinia Barros de Castro.pdf: 1709487 bytes, checksum: 7e7fd53427d965f069a10b1cdcf3c8f9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-09-15 / The purpose of this work is to analyze investment finance in economic development. The central hypothesis of this study is that the Korean and Brazilian financial structure offers us an important key to understand their swift to industrialization during the period 1950-80. Numerous comparisons have been made between Brazil and Korea, most of them stressing the differences and similarities of the industrial development (catch up). Few analyses emphasizes (and compare) the evolution of financial systems. Also, most treatments of finance are static, missing the Gerschenkronian developmental perspective which would tell us that a credit system based in equity and securities markets is an artifact of early industrialization (as it is the case of England and U.S industrialization), and that the model of state or bank-influenced industrialization is a consequence of lateness vis-?-vis the absence of abundant capital in the private sector. This thesis is organized in four different and independent articles. Article I is a review on the literature about investment finance. Article II examines Korean economic and financial development during the period 1950-80. The third article is a shorter essay, presenting a panel data model to test the relevance of banking finance in explaining economic growth in the case of Korea during the 1950s and the 1960s. Finally, the fourth compares Brazilian and Korean development outcomes (1950-80) in a broad sense. Together, the articles form a set that discusses the needs and challenges of investment finance in economic development, using two late-late-comers experiences. / O objetivo desta tese ? analisar o processo de financiamento do desenvolvimento em duas experi?ncias de industrializa??o tardia. A hip?tese central deste estudo ? que as estruturas financeiras da Cor?ia e do Brasil desempenharam um papel fundamental na transforma??o de economias de base agr?cola para economias de base industrial, ao longo do per?odo 1950-80. Diversas compara??es j? foram feitas entre o desenvolvimento industrial brasileiro e coreano, enfatizando o processo de catch up. Poucas an?lises, por?m, enfatizam e comparam a evolu??o dos sistemas financeiros. Al?m disso, a maioria dos estudos financeiros comparativos s?o est?ticos, sem uma perspectiva hist?rico-institucional. S?o, por isso, desprovidos do insight Gershenkroniano que nos alerta que uma estrutura financeira baseada em mercado de capitais ? comum em pa?ses que se industrializaram precocemente, como a Inglaterra e os EUA. Alternativamente, estruturas baseadas no cr?dito banc?rio privado ou estatal s?o uma conseq??ncia do atraso (lateness); uma resposta adaptativa ? escassez de recursos de capital. Esta tese ? organizada em quarto artigos, independentes entre si. O primeiro artigo ? uma revis?o da literatura sobre o financiamento do desenvolvimento. O segundo examina o desenvolvimento econ?mico e financeiro da Cor?ia durante o per?odo 1950-80. O terceiro ? um ensaio mais curto, onde apresentamos um modelo econom?trico de painel, cruzando dados de cr?dito banc?rio setorial com dados de produ??o industrial coreana nos anos 1950 e 1960. Por fim, o quarto artigo compara os processos de desenvolvimento coreano e brasileiro numa perspectiva ampla, ressaltando as alternativas institucionais para o financiamento do desenvolvimento (1950-80). Juntos, os artigos formam um conjunto que discute as necessidades e desafios para o financiamento do investimento em pa?ses emergentes, utilizando duas experi?ncias de industrializa??o tardia.

Orientador: Pedro Paulo Zahluth Bastos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-11T17:33:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 BrisoNeto_JoaquimLuizPereira_M.pdf: 1314143 bytes, checksum: 6a9e5a48cce59d1ac6fe4368a3e8a7a8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: Esta pesquisa procura demonstrar que havia um projeto conservador de governo ¿em construção¿ no período de crise do desenvolvimentismo (1961-1964), apoiado nos trabalhos do Instituto de Pesquisas e Estudos Sociais (IPES) e de outros pólos contrários ao nacional-reformismo. Precisamente, discorre sobre um momento importante da ¿construção¿ desse projeto conservador: o Congresso Brasileiro para a Definição das Reformas de Base (1963) ¿ evento realizado em São Paulo reunindo políticos, empresários e acadêmicos com vistas à elaboração de uma plataforma de políticas públicas modernizadoras do capitalismo no Brasil. Mediante a análise dos Anais do ¿Congresso¿, descreve como se desdobraram os debates e as resoluções relacionadas à temática das Reformas Financeiras: o Conselho Monetário (CM), Banco Central (BC), Banco Rural, Legislação Bancária, Sistema Financeiro. Compara tais debates e resoluções aos que resultaram na Lei nº. 4595 de 31 de dezembro de 1964 ¿ a qual dispôs sobre a criação do Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN), como órgão normativo da política monetária, e a transformação da Superintendência da Moeda e do Crédito (SUMOC) em Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), como órgão executivo. A conclusão a que chega é que resistências e interesses setoriais similares permearam o encaminhamento das Reformas Financeiras no Congresso Nacional e no Congresso Brasileiro para a Definição das Reformas de Base, e ¿soluções de compromisso¿ equivalentes foram acordadas para preservar a aliança conservadora. Essas ¿soluções de compromisso¿ consistiram numa redistribuição das funções de BC entre o BCB e o Banco do Brasil (BB). Aquele herdou, entre outras, as funções de fiscalização dos bancos, do redesconto, da emissão e da guarda dos depósitos compulsórios; este permaneceu com as funções de Agente Financeiro do Governo, crédito rural e comércio exterior / Abstract: The purpose of this dissertation is to demonstrate that it had a conservative governmental project ¿being elaborated¿ in the period of crise do desenvolvimentismo (1961-1964), supported on the work of Instituto de Pesquisas e Estudos Sociais (IPES) and others poles contrary to nacional-reformismo. Precisely, it discusses an important moment of the conservative project¿s ¿elaboration¿: the Congresso Brasileiro para a Definição das Reformas de Base ¿ an event which took place in São Paulo and brought together politicians, businessmen and academics with the aim of elaborating a platform of public policies for the modernization of Brazil¿s capitalist system. Through the analysis of the event¿s archives, it describes how the debates and resolutions related to Financial Reforms unfolded: the Monetary Council (CM), Central Bank (BC), Rural Bank, Banking Legislation, Financial System. It compares these debates and resolutions with those which resulted in Law nº. 4595 of December 31st, 1964 ¿ which set up the National Monetary Council (CMN) as a normative organ of monetary policy, and effected the transformation of the Superintendência da Moeda e do Crédito (SUMOC) at the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) into an executive organ. The conclusion it reaches is that resistance and similar sectoral interests permeated the direction of Financial Reforms in the National Congress and in the Congresso Brasileiro para a Definição das Reformas de Base, and equivalent ¿solutions of compromise¿ were negotiated to preserve the conservative alliance. These ¿solutions of compromise¿ consisted in a redistribution of the functions of the Central Bank between the BCB and Banco de Brasil (BB). The former inherited, among others, the functions of bank supervision, the discount rate, the issuance and holding of compulsory deposits; the latter retained functions as the Government¿s Financial Agent, of rural credit and foreign trade / Mestrado / Historia Economica / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Este trabalho busca revisitar as teorias existentes sobre reformas econômicas e democratização, em especial no que concerne às reformas financeiras liberalizantes. De acordo com o saber convencional, normalmente essas reformas afetam de modo negativo as democracias, colocando em perigo a construção de boas instituições para a sua consolidação. Ao analisar de forma mais detida a relação entre as reformas financeiras levadas a cabo pelo Banco Central do Brasil, a partir de uma conjuntura crítica ocorrida no início de 1999, e a padronização de instituições para o incremento da Supervisão Bancária, oriunda do BIS ? Banco para Compensações Internacionais, resolvemos questionar a validade universal dessa literatura ao argumentar que a construção de redes de proteção para o sistema financeiro brasileiro, num contexto de crise e oportunidades, foi possibilitado por uma maior cooperação entre esse organismo financeiro internacional e a autoridade monetária local. A contrapartida para o reforço de autoridade do Banco Central e a conseqüente implementação de instituições para a reforma financeira, no Brasil, foi um aumento da transparência das ações da autoridade monetária, concomitante a uma melhoria em seu processo de prestação de contas e responsabilização pública. A reconstrução das trajetórias que levaram a essa convergência entre um organismo internacional e uma autoridade local, numa democracia emergente de mercado, parece ser a chave para o entendimento das peculiaridades que redundaram nas falhas dos modelos unificadores de institucionalização, como aqueles preconizados pelo Consenso de Washington e adotados por outras organizações financeiras, por exemplo, o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) / This thesis aims to review the well-established theories of economic reforms and democratization. The object will focus especially on the so called \"liberal financial reforms\". According to conventional wisdom, these reforms normally affect democracies deeply and jeopardize the building of sound institutions towards their consolidation. We decided to debate the universal validity of this conventional literature using the argument that the institutional building of safety nets for the Brazilian financial system - in a context of crisis and opportunities - was possible as a result of the cooperative game between an international financial organization (BIS) and the local monetary authority (BACEN). We will do that by analyzing the relation between these financial reforms led by Brazilian Central Bank more accurately, arising from a critical juncture occurred at the beginning of 1999, and the standardization of institutions for the improvement of banking supervision originated from BIS -Bank for International Settlements. The counterbalance to the reinforcement of central bank authority and the consequent implementation of institutions for the financial reform in Brazil was the increased monetary authority acts transparency and the simultaneous improvement of its mechanisms of political accountability. The study of path sequence that led to the convergence of the intentions of an international organization and a local political authority, in a emerging market democracy, seems to be the key to the comprehension of the peculiarities that resulted in the failure of the remedies that recommended a \"single model\" for the success of these reforms in new democracies, like the ones prescribed by the Washington Consensus, which were adopted by several organizations, including the International Monetary Fund - IMF

Este trabalho busca revisitar as teorias existentes sobre reformas econômicas e democratização, em especial no que concerne às reformas financeiras liberalizantes. De acordo com o saber convencional, normalmente essas reformas afetam de modo negativo as democracias, colocando em perigo a construção de boas instituições para a sua consolidação. Ao analisar de forma mais detida a relação entre as reformas financeiras levadas a cabo pelo Banco Central do Brasil, a partir de uma conjuntura crítica ocorrida no início de 1999, e a padronização de instituições para o incremento da Supervisão Bancária, oriunda do BIS ? Banco para Compensações Internacionais, resolvemos questionar a validade universal dessa literatura ao argumentar que a construção de redes de proteção para o sistema financeiro brasileiro, num contexto de crise e oportunidades, foi possibilitado por uma maior cooperação entre esse organismo financeiro internacional e a autoridade monetária local. A contrapartida para o reforço de autoridade do Banco Central e a conseqüente implementação de instituições para a reforma financeira, no Brasil, foi um aumento da transparência das ações da autoridade monetária, concomitante a uma melhoria em seu processo de prestação de contas e responsabilização pública. A reconstrução das trajetórias que levaram a essa convergência entre um organismo internacional e uma autoridade local, numa democracia emergente de mercado, parece ser a chave para o entendimento das peculiaridades que redundaram nas falhas dos modelos unificadores de institucionalização, como aqueles preconizados pelo Consenso de Washington e adotados por outras organizações financeiras, por exemplo, o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) / This thesis aims to review the well-established theories of economic reforms and democratization. The object will focus especially on the so called \"liberal financial reforms\". According to conventional wisdom, these reforms normally affect democracies deeply and jeopardize the building of sound institutions towards their consolidation. We decided to debate the universal validity of this conventional literature using the argument that the institutional building of safety nets for the Brazilian financial system - in a context of crisis and opportunities - was possible as a result of the cooperative game between an international financial organization (BIS) and the local monetary authority (BACEN). We will do that by analyzing the relation between these financial reforms led by Brazilian Central Bank more accurately, arising from a critical juncture occurred at the beginning of 1999, and the standardization of institutions for the improvement of banking supervision originated from BIS -Bank for International Settlements. The counterbalance to the reinforcement of central bank authority and the consequent implementation of institutions for the financial reform in Brazil was the increased monetary authority acts transparency and the simultaneous improvement of its mechanisms of political accountability. The study of path sequence that led to the convergence of the intentions of an international organization and a local political authority, in a emerging market democracy, seems to be the key to the comprehension of the peculiarities that resulted in the failure of the remedies that recommended a \"single model\" for the success of these reforms in new democracies, like the ones prescribed by the Washington Consensus, which were adopted by several organizations, including the International Monetary Fund - IMF