Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 1999. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This is a comparative study to determine the accuracy of the cumulative factors calculated and used by INET and the University of Stellenbosch, Graduate School of Business (USB). These factors are calculated whilst taking into account the changes in capital structure due to the effects of share splits (splits), consolidations and capitalisation issues in the calculation of dividends per share (both interim and final), and closing share prices. For this purpose the data of 350 listed industrial companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange was evaluated over a 28-year period (1970-1997). In cases where a company was delisted before the date of the financial year-end 1997, that company was deleted from the study for the full period. The analysis of share splits, consolidations and capitalisation issues in the calculation of a cumulative factor for the determination of dividends per share and closing share prices, is therefore of critical importance. It is important to the companies as well as parties who are involved in maintaining data of listed companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. It is also important to those who use this data for research purposes. South African studies using dividends per share and share prices from INET or the USB assume that the data is accurate. This study is an effort to verify the accuracy of the two mentioned databases. The results of the study clearly suggest or indicate that there are indeed numerous inaccuracies (differences) between the data kept by both INET and USB databases. It is therefore important that the data be revisited so that these anomalies can be rectified. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie is 'n vergelykende studie om die akkuraatheid te bepaal van die kumulatiewe faktore soos deur INET en die Universiteit van Stellenbosch se Nagraadse Bestuurskool (USB) bereken en gebruik. Hierdie faktore word bereken om die effek van die onderverdeling en konsolidasie van aandele, asook kapitalisasie-uitgifte op die dividend per aandeel (beide interim en finaal) en sluitingsaandeelpryse te bepaal. Vir hierdie doel was die data van 350 industriele maatskappye wat op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs genoteer is oor 'n 28-jaar periode (1970-1997) geevalueer. In gevalle waar die maatskappye voor die finansiele jaareinde 1997 gedenoteer is, is die maatskappy uit die studie weggelaat. Die analise van onderverdeling en konsolidasie van aandele en kapitalisasie-uitgifte in die berekening van 'n kumulatiewe faktor vir die bepaling van dividend per aandeel en die sluitingsaandeelpryse, is van kritiese belang. Dit is belangrik vir die maatskappye en ander belanghebbendes wat gemoeid is met die instandhouding van data van genoteerde maatskappye op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs. Dit is ook van belang vir diegene wat die data vir navorsingsdoeleindes gebruik. Suid-Afrikaanse studies wat op dividend per aandeel en aandeelpryse van INET of die USB gebaseer is, veronderstel dat die data korrek is. Hierdie studie poog om die akkuraatheid van die genoemde twee databasisse te verifieer. Die resultate van die studie toon duidelik aan dat daar 'n hele aantal onakkuraathede (verskille) tussen die data onderhou deur beide INET en die USB bestaan. Dit is dus belangrik dat die data weer ondersoek word ten einde verskille uit die weg te ruim.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / Dividends are probable the most controversial subject in the finance literature. Dividends are paid cent for cent from company profits. Besides having tax implications on the company, they reduce sources of internal finance for the company. On the other hand, the value of a company is the net present value of cash flows. Theoretically a company that does not pay dividends now and at anytime in the future has a value of zero. Companies have dividend policies applicable to themselves. It is therefore valid to argue that the revision of the dividend policy has an underlying reason. This study was done to investigate the effect of unexpected dividend policy changes to daily share price movement. This study seeks to establish the validity of the much-debated subject of information significance of dividends. Past studies at most failed to converge to an agreement on information significance of dividends. The investigation revealed that there were no significant abnórmal returns earned on the announcement date on three out of four instances. However the results of the cumulative abnormal returns revealed that share prices react to dividend changes during the period of investigation i.e. twenty days before and twenty days after the announcement. The overall adjustment in share prices over the period studied is in the same direction as the dividend charge. The investigation also revealed that price adjustments take place before and after the announcement date. Price adjustments on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange were not efficient as compared to adjustments on the New York Stock Exchange. Share price adjustments on the New York Stock Exchange took place during the period of a day before and a day after the announcement. The lack of similarity can be attributed to either sophistication of the market participants or efficiency of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Share repurchases were allowed in South Africa as from 1 July 1999. The concept of repurchasing shares is therefore relatively new in this country, compared to many other countries (e.g. the United States of America and the United Kingdom), where it is an established practice. Considerable research in the field already exists, providing empirical evidence on the extent of share repurchase activities and current theoretical thinking on the motivations for share repurchases and the determinants affecting the choice of payout methods. In South Africa there are indications, as this study demonstrates, that research on payout methods and payout reform has become a matter of urgency. Share repurchase activity by JSE-listed companies is not comprehensively recorded by South African financial data sources. Prior research on South African share repurchases is limited, mainly owing to the fact that a comprehensive share repurchase database is not available. This study sets out to document the extent of share repurchases by companies in selected JSE-listed sectors (for reporting periods including 1 July 1999 to the 2009 year-ends of the companies) and to test whether empirical evidence and current theoretical thinking also applied in South Africa. The results of these tests were used to develop a model to ascertain what the significant determinants were when a JSE-listed company had to decide between repurchasing shares and paying special dividends. This study found that the South African regulatory environment pertaining to share repurchases differed from the regulatory environments of other countries. The main differences related to the share repurchase announcement structure (namely the JSE Listings Requirements that open market share repurchases need to be announced via SENS only once a 3% limit has been reached) and that subsidiaries are allowed to repurchase shares in the holding company (and have a tax benefit when compared to share repurchases made by the holding company itself). These differences affected the results of this study. On compiling a database on share repurchases by companies in selected JSE-listed sectors, it was found that the share repurchase announcements (made via SENS) could not be used as the main source to compile comprehensive share repurchase data (mainly owing to the 3% rule on open market share repurchases). Annual report disclosures were therefore scrutinised to obtain share repurchase data for this study. These disclosures were found to be applied inconsistently by companies (mainly because subsidiaries were allowed to repurchase shares in the holding company; International Financial Reporting Standards and the JSE Listings Requirements did not adequately cater for the differing South African regulatory environment in their disclosure stipulations; and compliance to the disclosure requirements were not adequately monitored). Consequently, an extensive process of verification was applied in order to compile a comprehensive and reliable share repurchase database for this study. When testing whether empirical evidence and current theoretical thinking on share repurchases also applied in South Africa, it was found that the unique South African regulatory environment led to certain aspects of the South African share repurchase experience not mirroring the global precedent. The main differences between the South African and global share repurchase evidence which emerged from the present study are that the open market share repurchase type is not the outright favoured repurchase type (as is the case globally); that subsidiaries repurchasing shares in the holding company are the favoured South African share repurchasing entity (as opposed to subsidiaries not being allowed to repurchase shares in most other countries); and that share repurchases announced via SENS do not represent comprehensive share repurchase data (as opposed to global security exchanges requiring share repurchase announcements on a regular and accurate actual-time basis). When testing the current theoretical thinking on the information-signalling motivation for share repurchases, it was found that the motivation for South African open market and pro rata share repurchases mirrored the current theoretical thinking. Open market share repurchases were found to be motivated by the information-signalling hypothesis, while the short-term abnormal returns of pro rata offers were offset by the negative abnormal returns over the long term. A share repurchase type unique to the South African share repurchase environment (namely the repurchase of treasury shares by the holding company) was found not to be motivated by the information-signalling hypothesis. This study also found that companies repurchasing shares were generally classified as value companies (which tend to be undervalued) prior to the repurchase transaction which mirrored the current theoretical thinking. In developing a model of choice to determine what the main determinants were when a company had to decide between open market share repurchases and special dividends, this study found that some of the South African determinants mirrored the current theoretical thinking, but also identified determinants which were not identified as significant determinants in global research. This study found that ownership structure, size of the distribution and level of company undervaluation were the significant factors which affected a company’s choice of payout method. It was found that smaller companies, with fewer shareholders and more public investors favoured open market share repurchases over special dividends. Open market share repurchases were found to be selected for smaller distributions when compared to special dividends. Companies paying special dividends were found to exhibit lower degrees of undervaluation when compared to companies which repurchased shares in the open market. This study found that share repurchases became a popular means of distributing excess cash as from 2005. A total amount of about R384 billion was spent on share repurchases during the reporting periods including 1 July 1999 to the 2009 year-ends of the companies included in the population of this study. Share repurchases did not exceed dividend payments over the target period and represented about 36 per cent of total payouts. In 2009, the final year of the study, share repurchases represented about 44 per cent of total payouts. The results of this study showed that investors would benefit over the long term when investing in companies which repurchased shares in the open market. It was also found that there were certain characteristics which were evident in companies when choosing open market share repurchases rather than special dividend payments. This study concluded that the South African regulatory environment possesses many characteristics of a developing economy’s financial systems. Suggestions are given on how to improve and better align the South African repurchasing environment to those of developed economies.

Thesis (MBA)-- Stellenbosch University, 1995. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The price of shares is determined primarily by investors' current expectations about the future values of variables that measure the relevant aspects of a company's performance and profitability, particularly the anticipated growth rate of earnings per share. Empirically, no model estimated with only historical senes data has been found to have greater forecast accuracy than the random walk model in estimating earnings one period ahead. This has led to the conclusion that past and future earnings growth is uncorrelated and that only year t-l earnings are useful in forecasting year t earnings. Research by Mozes in the USA has found the opposite and his model is applied to the South African situation. The aim is to determine whether the Mozes model has greater forecasting accuracy in the prediction of earnings per share than the random walk model. The present study shows that the Mozes model has greater forecast accuracy in the prediction of earnings per share than the random walk model if the following criteria are met: the company must be classified as a large company in terms of market capitalisation; or the percentage increase in earnings per share must be large; and the earnings per share must be classified in the growth mode. It is demonstrated that if these criteria are met, the historical growth in earnings and the future growth in earnings are positively correlated and not distributed at random. If earnings per share is classified in the non~growth mode, the random walk model is more accurate in the prediction of earnings per share than the Mozes model and as such, only the earnings per share of year t-l is important in forecasting year t's earnings per share. The most important conclusion from the study is that earnings per share in the South African market is not always randomly distributed. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die prys van aandele word primer bepaal deur beleggers se huidige verwagtinge rakende die toekomstige waarde van veranderlikes wat relevante aspekte van die maatskappy se prestasie en winsgewendheid beinvloed, meer spesifiek die geantisipeerde groei in verdienste per aandeel. Empiriese studies het bevind dat die toevalslopie-model die grootste akkuraatheid in die vooruitskatting van verdienste vir een periode in die toekoms lewer indien van historiese tydreeksdata gebruik gemaak word. Die gevolgtrekking word dus gemaak dat groei in verdienste van die verlede en die toekoms nie gekorreleerd is nie en dat slegs jaar t-1 se verdienste belangrik is in die vooruitskatting van jaar t se verdienste. Navorsing deur Mozes in die VSA het die teendeel getoon en die model is in die ondersoek toegepas op Suid-Afrikaanse data om te bepaal of dieselfde bevindinge geld. Resultate van hierdie studie toon dat daar aan die volgende kriteria voldoen moet word alvorens die Mozes-model meer akkurate vooruitskattings van verdienste per aandeel lewer as die toevals-Iopiemodel : -die maatskappy behoort as 'n groot maatskappy geklassifiseer te wees volgens markkapitalisasie; of -die persentasieverandering in verdienste per aandeel behoort groot te wees; en -indien verdienste per aandeel as synde in die groeifase geklassifiseer is. Indien aan die kriteria voldoen word, is aangetoon dat historiese groei in verdienste en toekomstige groei in verdienste gekorreleerd is en nie ewekansig versprei is nie. In die gevalle waar verdienste per aandeel as synde in die nie-groeifase geklassifiseer is, lewer die toevalslopie-model oorheersend meer akkurate vooruitskattings van verdienste per aandeel as die Mozes-model en gevolglik is daar bevind dat slegs jaar t ~ 1 se verdienste per aandeel belangrik is vir die vooruitskatting van jaar t se verdienste per aandeel. Die belangrikste afleiding vanuit die studie is gevolglik dat verdienste per aandeel in die SuidAfrikaanse mark nie in aile gevalle sonder meer ewekansig versprei is nie.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: “Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” – Ronald Reagan It is widely publicised that inflation-linked instruments provide a hedge against rising inflation. This has led investors to assume that high inflation creates an opportunity to beat the market when investing in this asset class. This assumption is based on the belief that higher inflation creates higher returns. It is due to this belief that a research question was formulated to determine if inflation is in fact a determinant of inflation-linked bond returns. This research study investigated, as a first objective, the relationship between the South African prime lending interest rate and the South African consumer price index inflation between 2000 and 2013. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to test for unit roots between interest and inflation. This test was extended to six other emerging countries that, together with South Africa, are issuers of government inflation-linked bonds. The researcher’s intention was to compare the relationship between interest rates and inflation in South Africa with that of the six other countries. Surprisingly, the results indicated that South African inflation and interest are non-stationary. After testing for cointegration, it was concluded that there is no relationship between the prime lending interest rate and inflation in the data set and most of the variation can be explained by means of the autocorrelation of residuals in previous periods more than the prime lending rate. As a second objective, the same methodology was applied to determine whether there is any relationship between the South African consumer price index inflation and the South African government inflation-linked bond returns. The results indicated that the series is not cointegrated which means that no relationship exists between inflation and inflation-linked bond returns. The third objective looked at alternative factors that could explain what the real determinants of inflation-linked bond returns are. It was concluded that the trend in inflation is really the source of inflation-linked bond performance, with the effects of the lead and lag periods causing capital losses and profits.

M.Comm / This dissertation comprises of four parts that attempt to explain the history and application of shadow pricing in South African water projects with reference to water resource development and water pricing reforms. Water is a precious resource and people simply cannot survive without fresh water. It becomes a vital function to then price water correctly and therefore revolutionise the way water is treated. The application of CBA has become increasingly important over recent years Governments often finance these projects, but there is a need for a consistent or standard framework to evaluate capital projects to minimise the risk and possible losses. As a result a manual and method to evaluate spending priorities was developed in the 1980’s in South Africa. CBA has found extensive applications in the field of water development. Important issues such as the opportunity cost of water and a method to calculate the economic value or the opportunity cost of water have been developed further in South Africa over the past few years. It emphasises that pricing water can be a complicated process affected by various forces, many of which are difficult to define and model. The History and Application of Shadow Pricing in South African Water Projects Page v This dissertation demonstrates that the strategies employed in each country are different variations of CBA, with the use of shadow pricing and are adapted to each countries varying circumstance. The political experiences in South Africa have placed strain on the countries scarce national resources. As a result there is a need for some kind of framework and method to evaluate spending and pricing of infrastructure and importantly the development of water pricing reforms and management thereof. The study concludes that there is limited literature that actually defines and explains how shadow prices are calculated in water resource management. Wrong policy or planning decisions can often be a result of price distortions. Therefore, countries are becoming more aware that external factors, such as social welfare and the environment need to be taken into consideration.

M.Econ. / Please refer to full text to view abstract

Ph.D. (Economic Sciences) / The international oil industry has always been subject to significant changes throughout the years, mainly as a result of changes in the environment, government policies, the world economy and a developing technology. Since the turn of the century, however, no changes have been as fundamental as the events of 1973. The international oil industry found itself in a very short period of time, with the following changes: The loss of production resources to the industry's previous host countries. A significant increase in the price of the products the industry handle. Increased interference by the governments of the countries in which the industry markets its products. No growth. A permanent change in the mix of petroleum products required by the market. The oil industry reacted to these changes in the following ways: Large proportions of refining networks were closed and large amounts of money were spent on additional cracking facilities for the remainder of the industry's networks. Organisational changes were introduced, with the objective of removing surplus infra-structure from a shrinking industry. iii Attention was given to other forms of energy. Whatever the reaction had been, the mere fact that refining capacity had to be reduced, and large oil tankers scrapped, suggests a lack of proper planning during the period preceding the problems of 1973. During the late fifties and sixties, when there was a steady growth in the world economy and oil prices remained static, planning ahead became relatively simple, and the oil industry planners slipped into the illusion that none of the upheave1s of history would be repeated. The signals were clearly there, but were totally ignored until far too late. To a large extent, this happened because government officials and oil company executives tended to specialise, and therefore they lacked knowledge of the oil industry as a whole. In South Africa, more planning was conducted than elsewhere in the world, but was mainly directed towards the development of synfuels and strategic storage. This was the result of South Africa's peculiar political circumstances and not because of an awareness of the need for realistic commercial planning.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investment. June 2017 / This research report explores how various macroeconomic surprises impact on individual stock returns in South Africa. The focus of the study is on the individual constituent stocks of the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index listed during the period January 2005 to December 2015. This report employs an event study and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) analysis approach to provide comprehensive insights into the relationship between the macroeconomic surprises and the individual stock returns in South Africa. This study closely mirrors a previous study conducted by Gupta and Reid (2013) which explored the impact of five macroeconomic surprises on general stock market indices (ALSI and JSE Top 40) and industry-specific stock returns in South Africa. However, in the interests of completeness and robustness, there are a few material differences and additional innovations introduced in this report. The event study results show that individual stock returns in South Africa are highly sensitive to GDP growth and CA surprises. Upon immediate impact, the GDP growth shocks cause negative stock returns indicating that initially market participants have a general dislike for the surprise element in GDP growth surprise announcements. However, post immediate impact, the stock returns increase and remain positive in line with widely hypothesized economic theory. In addition to GDP growth and CA surprises, the BVAR analysis indicates that USFed shocks have significant dynamic effects on individual stock returns in South Africa. The study finds that individual banking stocks and resource stocks are significantly sensitive to REPO surprises, whilst individual retail, property and consumer goods stocks are very responsive to GDP growth shocks. / MT2017

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg 2014. / The application of agent based modelling in nance allows market experiments to be undertaken which would normally be prohibitive due to cost, complexity and other factors. Agent based models use simple behaviour and interaction to produce complex outcomes. We introduce the requirements of an agent based market simulator based on protocol stipulated by the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The requirements are then translated into a technical design. This design is implemented using the Microsoft .NET framework. The product of this design and creation approach is a market simulator which is then used to run three simulations where different agent behaviour is demonstrated. The approach and results of the simulations are documented to show possible use cases of the simulator.