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Probabilistic Assessment of Common Cause Failures in Nuclear Power PlantsYu, Shuo January 2013 (has links)
Common cause failures (CCF) are a significant contributor to risk in complex technological systems, such as nuclear power plants. Many probabilistic parametric models have been developed to quantify the systems subject to the CCF. Existing models include the beta factor model, the multiple Greek letter model, the basic parameter model, the alpha factor model and the binomial failure rate model. These models are often only capable of providing a point estimate, when there are limited CCF data available. Some recent studies have proposed a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainties in CCF modeling, but they are limited in addressing the uncertainty in the common failure factors only.
This thesis presents a multivariate Poisson model for CCF modeling, which combines the modeling of individual and common cause failures into one process. The key idea of the approach is that failures in a common cause component group of n components are decomposed into superposition of k (>n) independent Poisson processes. Empirical Bayes method is utilized for simultaneously estimating the independent and common cause failure rates which are mutually exclusive. In addition, the conventional CCF parameters can be evaluated using the outcomes of the new approach. Moreover, the uncertainties in the CCF modeling can also be addressed in an integrated manner. The failure rate is estimated as the mean value of the posterior density function while the variance of the posterior represents the variation of the estimate. A MATLAB program of the Monte Carlo simulation was developed to check the behavior of the proposed multivariate Poisson (MVP) model. Superiority over the traditional CCF models has been illustrated.
Furthermore, due to the rarity of the CCF data observed at one nuclear power plant, data of the target plant alone are insufficient to produce reliable estimates of the failure rates. Data mapping has been developed to make use of the data from source plants of different sizes. In this thesis, data mapping is combined with EB approach to partially assimilate information from source plants and also respect the data of the target plant. Two case studies are presented using different database. The results are compared to the empirical values provided by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC).
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The Impacts of Legacy Mining Operation on Inorganic Arsenic Bioaccumulation and Exposure in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, CanadaTanamal, Claudia 04 December 2019 (has links)
Arsenic transfers and toxicology are important topics of research and a public health concern because arsenicosis affects millions of people worldwide every year. One of the most significant sources of arsenic in the environment is industrial wastes, such as by-products of mining operation. In Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada, there were two large gold mines—Giant Mine and Con Mine, along with dozens of small-scale mines. The combined by-product of emission from these roasters might have contributed to high concentrations of arsenic found in the city. This thesis presents the results of two related studies to address the environmental health concern: (1) to investigate the arsenic transfers and arsenic species accumulation in freshwater food webs near large legacy mining operations in Yellowknife, and (2) to assess the long-term health risk of inorganic arsenic exposure from the consumption of fish in Yellowknife among the general residents and the Yellowknives Dene First Nation. We found that inorganic arsenic is biominified in food webs (i.e. inorganic arsenic concentrations diminish at higher trophic positions relative to lower trophic positions). Higher-trophic organisms have low inorganic arsenic concentrations in tissue due to biotransformation of inorganic arsenic to non-toxic organic arsenobetaine, and effective elimination of arsenic from their tissue. The trophic positions of freshwater organisms can be used to predict the range of arsenic concentrations and its species composition, accounting for more than 80% of variance. Dietary study results show that the Yellowknives Dene First Nation consumed significantly more fish in their diets (adults: 19 g/day, children: 9 g/day) compared to the general residents of Yellowknife (adults: 9 g/day, children: 5 g/day). Our probabilistic risk assessments showed no significant long-term non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks of inorganic arsenic exposure from fish consumption for the majority of Yellowknife residents, but elevated cancer risks among the adult heavy fish consumers in Yellowknife. However, our data suggested that the residents of Yellowknife were not exposed to higher cancer risks from inorganic exposure compared to the general population in Canada. Therefore, due to fish health benefits and the values associated with its consumption, fish should continue to be a major source of sustenance in Yellowknife.
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Incorporation of Corrosion Mechanisms into a State-dependent Probabilistic Risk AssessmentLewandowski, Radoslaw 24 July 2013 (has links)
No description available.
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<b>Development of a Potential Facility Risk Index for Nuclear Safety and Security</b>Joeun Kot (18370179) 16 April 2024 (has links)
<p dir="ltr">Risk assessment involves analyzing potential accident scenarios to identify hazards and assess associated risk factors. Nuclear safety and security share the common goal of protecting against radiation exposure. However, they have developed separately, each with their own distinct risk assessment methodologies. As a result, there is a need for a comprehensive risk assessment method that covers both safety and security aspects. This thesis proposes a methodology that integrates risk assessment approaches for nuclear safety and security to address the gap in the current development of their risk assessment methodologies.</p><p dir="ltr">The proposed methodology applies the existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology to the PFRI (Potential Facility Risk Index), originally developed to evaluate quantitative nuclear security risks, to enable the inclusion of safety risks in the assessment. The PFRI framework and methodology are modified to ensure that the PFRI score accurately reflects the overall risk of the facility for both nuclear safety and security. The facility-based approach of the existing PFRI is maintained to ensure a comprehensive assessment of the research reactor.</p><p dir="ltr">To achieve the goal of developing a comprehensive risk assessment method, the traditional PRA tools, such as event tree analysis (ETA) and fault tree analysis (FTA), are utilized in combination with the modified PFRI methodology. In addition, the consequence analysis method of PFRI is changed using the MACCS, which is commonly used for consequence analysis in PRA. The modified methodology is then used to conduct a risk assessment for the PFRI by setting safety and security scenarios at a hypothetical nuclear facility. The results demonstrate that the modified PFRI can provide a reasonable traditional risk unit and enable the comparison of risks from both safety and security aspects.</p><p dir="ltr">The final goal of this study is to develop the PFRI to determine the overall risk of the facility, considering both nuclear safety and security aspects. The PFRI score is utilized as a quantitative measure to show the total risk associated with hypothetical nuclear facility, providing a comprehensive understanding of its safety and security. By developing a methodology that integrates risk assessment approaches for nuclear safety and security, this thesis contributes to the improvement of the risk assessment methodology for nuclear facilities.</p>
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Evaluation of Epistemic Uncertainties in Probabilistic Risk Assessments : Philosophical Review of Epistemic Uncertainties in Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models Applied to Nuclear Power Plants - Fukushima Daiichi Accident as a Case StudyRawandi, Omed A. January 2020 (has links)
Safety and risk assessment are key priorities for nuclear power plants. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for quantitative evaluation of accident risk, in particular severe nuclear core damage and the associated release of radioactive materials into the environment. The reliability and certainty of PRA have at times been questioned, especially when real-world observations have indicated that the frequency of nuclear accidents is higher than the probabilities predicted by PRA. This thesis provides a philosophical review of the epistemic uncertainties in PRA, using the Fukushima Daiichi accident of March 2011 as a case study. The thesis provides an overview of the PRA model structure, its key elements, and possible sources of uncertainty, in an attempt to understand the deviation between the real frequency of nuclear core-melt accidents and the probabilities predicted by PRA.The analyses in this thesis address several sources of epistemic uncertainty in PRA. Analyses of the PRA approach reveal the difficulty involved in covering all possible initiating events, all component and system failures, as well as their possible combinations in the risk evaluations. This difficulty represents the source of a characteristic epistemic uncertainty, referred to as completeness uncertainty. Analyses from the case study (the Fukushima Daiichi accident) illustrate this difficulty, as the PRA failed to identify a combined earthquake and tsunami, with the resultant flooding and consequent power failure and total blackout, as an initiating causal event in its logic structure.The analyses further demonstrate how insufficient experience and knowledge, as well as a lack of empirical data, lead to incorrect assumptions, which are used by the model as input parameters to estimate the probabilities of accidents. With limited availability of input data, decision-makers rely upon the subjective judgements and individual experiences of experts, which adds a further source of epistemic uncertainty to the PRA, usually referred to as input parameter uncertainty. As a typical example from the case study, the Fukushima Daiichi accident revealed that the PRA had underestimated the height of a possible tsunami. Consequently, the risk mitigation systems (e.g. the barrier seawalls) built to protect the power plant were inadequate due to incorrect input data.Poor assumptions may also result in improper modeling of failure modes and sequences in the PRA logic structure, which makes room for an additional source of epistemic uncertainty referred to as model uncertainty. For instance, the Fukushima Daiichi accident indicated insufficient backup of the power supply, because the possibility of simultaneous failure of several emergency diesel generators was assumed to be negligibly small. However, that was exactly what happened when 12 out of the 13 generators failed at the same time as a result of flooding.Furthermore, the analyses highlight the difficulty of modeling the human interventions and actions, in particular during the course of unexpected accidents, taking into account the physiological and psychological effects on the cognitive performance of humans, which result in uncertain operator interventions. This represents an additional source of epistemic uncertainty, usually referred to as uncertainty in modeling human interventions. As a result, there may be an increase in the probability of human error, characterized by a delay in making a diagnosis, formulating a response and taking action. Even this statement confirms the complexity of modelling human errors. In the case of the Fukushima Daiichi accident, lack ofvsufficient instructions for dealing with this "unexpected" accident made the coordination of operators' interventions almost impossible.Given the existence of all these sources of epistemic uncertainty, it would be reasonable to expect such a detected deviation between the real frequency of nuclear core-melt accidents and the probabilities predicted by PRA.It is, however, important to highlight that the occurrence of the Fukushima Daiichi accident could lie within the uncertainty distribution that the PRA model predicted prior to the accident. Hence, from the probabilistic point of view, the occurrence of a single unexpected accident should be interpreted with care, especially in political and commercial debates. Despite the limitations that have been highlighted in this thesis, the model still can provide valuable insights for systematic examination of safety systems, risk mitigation approaches, and strategic plans aimed at protecting the nuclear power plants against failures. Nevertheless, the PRA model does have development potentials, which deserves serious attention. The validity of calculated frequencies in PRA is restricted to the parameter under study. This validity can be improved by adding further relevant scenarios to the PRA, improving the screening approaches and collecting more input data through better collaboration between nuclear power plants world-wide. Lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident have initiated further studies aimed at covering additional scenarios. In subsequent IAEA safety report series, external hazards in multi-unit nuclear power plants have been considered. Such an action shows that PRA is a dynamic approach that needs continuous improvement toward better reliability.
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Optimal Allocation of Resources for Screening of Donated BloodXie, Shiguang 29 September 2011 (has links)
Blood products, either whole blood or its components, are vital healthcare commodities for patients across all age groups, multiple diagnoses, and in a variety of settings. Meanwhile, blood shortages are common, and are projected to significantly increase in the near future in both developing and developed countries due to a limited supply of and increasing demand for blood, lack of resources, infrastructure. Unfortunately, today there remains a definable risk associated with the transfusion of blood and blood products. We explored, in depth, the resource allocation problem in reducing the risks of transfusion-transmitted infections (TTI). We developed models and algorithms to study the problem of selecting a set of blood screening tests for risk reduction, which we show to be very efficient in numerical studies with realistic-sized problems. This analysis also motivates the development of effective lower bounds with co-infection; our analysis indicates that these algorithms are very efficient and effective for the general problem. We also incorporate other objective functions and constraints (i.e., waste) into the analysis. Waste, defined as the fraction of disposed blood in the ``infection-free" blood, is incorporated into the risk-based model as a constraint. As an important extension, we compared our results of the blood screening problem in risk model with that of weighted risk objectives, which allows for different weights for each TTI. We further explored efficient algorithms to study this extension of the model and analyze how the test composition changes with the different objectives. Finally, in the context of blood screening, the last extension we investigated is to include a ``differential" testing policy, in which an optimal solution is allowed to contain multiple test sets, each applied to a fraction of the total blood units. In particular, the decision-maker faces the problem of selecting a collection of test sets as well as determining the proportion (or fraction) of blood units each test set will be administered to. We proposed the solution methodology and determined how the test sets under differential policy relate to those under the "same-for-all" policy; and how these changes impact the risk, and allow for better budget utilization. / Ph. D.
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Uncertainty, variability and environmental risk analysisFilipsson, Monika January 2011 (has links)
The negative effects of hazardous substances and possible measures that can be taken are evaluated in the environmental risk analysis process, consisting of risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and natural variability are always present in this process. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate some tools as well as discuss the management of uncertainty and variability, as it is necessary to treat them both in a reliable and transparent way to gain regulatory acceptance in decision making. The catalytic effects of various metals on the formation of chlorinated aromatic compounds during the heating of fly ash were investigated (paper I). Copper showed a positive catalytic effect, while cobalt, chromium and vanadium showed a catalytic effect for degradation. Knowledge of the catalytic effects may facilitate the choice and design of combustion processes to decrease emissions, but it also provides valuable information to identify and characterize the hazard. Exposure factors of importance in risk assessment (physiological parameters, time use factors and food consumption) were collected and evaluated (paper II). Interindividual variability was characterized by mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis and multiple percentiles, while uncertainty in these parameters was estimated with confidence intervals. How these statistical parameters can be applied was shown in two exposure assessments (papers III and IV). Probability bounds analysis was used as a probabilistic approach, which enables separate propagation of uncertainty and variability even in cases where the availability of data is limited. In paper III it was determined that the exposure cannot be expected to cause any negative health effects for recreational users of a public bathing place. Paper IV concluded that the uncertainty interval in the estimated exposure increased when accounting for possible changes in climate-sensitive model variables. Risk managers often need to rely on precaution and an increased uncertainty may therefore have implications for risk management decisions. Paper V focuses on risk management and a questionnaire was sent to employees at all Swedish County Administrative Boards working with contaminated land. It was concluded that the gender, age and work experience of the employees, as well as the funding source of the risk assessment, all have an impact on the reviewing of risk assessments. Gender was the most significant factor, and it also affected the perception of knowledge. / Negativa effekter orsakade av skadliga ämnen och möjliga åtgärder bedöms och utvärderas i en miljöriskanalys, som kan delas i riskbedömning, riskkommunikation och riskhantering. Osäkerhet som beror på kunskapsbrist samt naturlig variabilitet finns alltid närvarande i denna process. Syftet med avhandlingen är att utvärdera några tillvägagångssätt samt diskutera hur osäkerhet och variabilitet hanteras då det är nödvändigt att båda hanteras trovärdigt och transparent för att riskbedömningen ska vara användbar för beslutsfattande. Metallers katalytiska effekt på bildning av klorerade aromatiska ämnen under upphettning av flygaska undersöktes (artikel I). Koppar visade en positiv katalytisk effekt medan kobolt, krom och vanadin istället katalyserade nedbrytningen. Kunskap om katalytisk potential för bildning av skadliga ämnen är viktigt vid val och design av förbränningsprocesser för att minska utsläppen, men det är också ett exempel på hur en fara kan identifieras och karaktäriseras. Information om exponeringsfaktorer som är viktiga i riskbedömning (fysiologiska parametrar, tidsanvändning och livsmedelskonsumtion) samlades in och analyserades (artikel II). Interindividuell variabilitet karaktäriserades av medel, standardavvikelse, skevhet, kurtosis (toppighet) och multipla percentiler medan osäkerhet i dessa parametrar skattades med konfidensintervall. Hur dessa statistiska parametrar kan tillämpas i exponeringsbedömningar visas i artikel III och IV. Probability bounds analysis användes som probabilistisk metod, vilket gör det möjligt att separera osäkerhet och variabilitet i bedömningen även när tillgången på data är begränsad. Exponeringsbedömningen i artikel III visade att vid nu rådande föroreningshalter i sediment i en badsjö så medför inte bad någon hälsofara. I artikel IV visades att osäkerhetsintervallet i den skattade exponeringen ökar när hänsyn tas till förändringar i klimatkänsliga modellvariabler. Riskhanterare måste ta hänsyn till försiktighetsprincipen och en ökad osäkerhet kan därmed få konsekvenser för riskhanteringsbesluten. Artikel V fokuserar på riskhantering och en enkät skickades till alla anställda som arbetar med förorenad mark på länsstyrelserna i Sverige. Det konstaterades att anställdas kön, ålder och erfarenhet har en inverkan på granskningsprocessen av riskbedömningar. Kön var den mest signifikanta variabeln, vilken också påverkade perceptionen av kunskap. Skillnader i de anställdas svar kunde också ses beroende på om riskbedömningen finansierades av statliga bidrag eller av en ansvarig verksamhetsutövare.
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Utvärdering av osäkerhet och variabilitet vid beräkning av riktvärden för förorenad mark / Evaluation of Uncertainty and Variability in Calculations of Soil Guideline ValuesLarsson, Emelie January 2014 (has links)
I Sverige finns cirka 80 000 identifierade förorenade områden som i vissa fall behöver efterbehandling för att hantera föroreningssituationen. Naturvårdsverket publicerade 2009 ett reviderat vägledningsmaterial för riskbedömningar av förorenade områden tillsammans med en beräkningsmodell för att ta fram riktvärden. Riktvärdesmodellen är deterministisk och genererar enskilda riktvärden för ämnen under givna förutsättningar. Modellen tar inte explicit hänsyn till osäkerhet och variabilitet utan hanterar istället det implicit med säkerhetsfaktorer och genom att användaren alltid utgår från ett rimligt värsta scenario vid val av parametervärden. En metod för att hantera osäkerhet och variabilitet i riskbedömningar är att göra en så kallad probabilistisk riskbedömning med Monte Carlo-simuleringar. Fördelen med detta är att ingångsparametrar kan definieras med sannolikhetsfördelningar och på så vis hantera inverkan av osäkerhet och variabilitet. I examensarbetet genomfördes en probabilistisk riskbedömning genom en vidare egen implementering av Naturvårdsverkets metodik varefter probabilistiska riktvärden beräknades för ett antal ämnen. Modellen tillämpades med två parameteruppsättningar vars värden hade förankrats i litteraturen respektive Naturvårdsverkets metodik. Uppsättningarna genererade kumulativa fördelningsfunktioner av riktvärden som överensstämde olika mycket med de deterministiska riktvärden som Naturvårdsverket definierat. Generellt överensstämde deterministiska riktvärden för markanvändningsscenariot känslig markanvändning (KM) mer med den probabilistiska riskbedömningen än för scenariot mindre känslig markanvändning (MKM). Enligt resultatet i examensarbetet skulle dioxin och PCB-7 behöva en sänkning av riktvärden för att fullständigt skydda människor och miljö för MKM. En fallstudie över ett uppdrag som Geosigma AB utfört under hösten 2013 genomfördes också. Det var generellt en överensstämmelse mellan de platsspecifika riktvärden (PRV) som beräknats i undersökningsrapporten och den probabilistiska riskbedömningen. Undantaget var ämnet koppar som enligt studien skulle behöva halverade riktvärden för att skydda människor och miljö. I den probabilistiska riskbedömningen kvantifierades hur olika skyddsobjekt respektive exponeringsvägar blev styrande för olika ämnens riktvärden mellan simuleringar. För några ämnen skedde avvikelser jämfört med de deterministiska motsvarigheterna i mellan 70-90 % av fallen. Exponeringsvägarnas bidrag till det ojusterade hälsoriskbaserade riktvärdet kvantifierades också i en probabilistisk hälsoriskbaserad riskbedömning. Riktvärden med likvärdiga numeriska värden erhölls för riktvärden med skild sammansättning. Detta motiverade att riktvärdenas sammansättning och styrande exponeringsvägar alltid bör kvantifieras vid en probabilistisk riskbedömning. / In Sweden, approximately 80,000 contaminated areas have been identified. Some of these areas are in need of remediation to cope with the effects that the contaminants have on both humans and the environment. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published a methodology on how to perform risk assessments for contaminated soils together with a complex model for calculating soil guideline values. The guideline value model is deterministic and calculates single guideline values for contaminants. The model does not account explicitly for uncertainty and variability in parameters but rather handles it implicitly by using safety-factors and reasonable worst-case assumptions for different parameters. One method to account explicitly for uncertainty and variability in a risk assessment is to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) through Monte Carlo-simulations. A benefit with this is that the parameters can be defined with probability density functions (PDFs) that account for the uncertainty and variability of the parameters. In this Master's Thesis a PRA was conducted and followed by calculations of probabilistic guideline values for selected contaminants. The model was run for two sets of PDFs for the parameters: one was collected from extensive research in published articles and another one included the deterministic values set by the Swedish EPA for all parameters. The sets generated cumulative probability distributions (CPDs) of guideline values that, depending on the contaminant, corresponded in different levels to the deterministic guideline values that the Swedish EPA had calculated. In general, there was a stronger correlation between the deterministic guideline values and the CPDs for the sensitive land-use scenario compared to the less sensitive one. For contaminants, such as dioxin and PCB-7, a lowering of the guideline values would be required to fully protect humans and the environment based on the results in this thesis. Based on a recent soil investigation that Geosigma AB has performed, a case study was also conducted. In general there was a correlation between the deterministic site specific guideline values and the CPDs in the case study. In addition to this, a health oriented risk assessment was performed in the thesis where unexpected exposure pathways were found to be governing for the guideline values. For some contaminants the exposure pathway governing the guideline values in the PRA differed from the deterministic ones in 70-90 % of the simulations. Also, the contributing part of the exposure pathways to the unadjusted health guideline values differed from the deterministic ones. This indicated the need of always quantifying the composition of guideline values in probabilistic risk assessments.
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Evaluation probabiliste du risque lié à l'exposition à des aflatoxines et des fumonisines dû à la consommation de tortillas de maïs à la ville de Veracruz / Evaluación probabilistica de riesgo por exposición a aflatoxinas y fumonisinas por consumo de tortillas en la ciudad de Veracruz / Probabilistic risk assessment for aflatoxins and fumonisins exposition through the consumption of maize tortillas in Veracruz City, MexicoWall Martinez, Hiram Alejandro 20 October 2016 (has links)
Un des dangers chimiques les plus importants relevés par l'OMS concerne la contamination des céréales par les mycotoxines et notamment les aflatoxines et les fumonisines. La réglementation recommande des contaminations maximales d'aflatoxines dans les céréales inférieures à 20 mg/kg ; cependant on relève couramment des taux supérieurs à 200 mg/kg dans le maïs au Mexique. Bien qu'il ait été évalué que le processus de nixtamalisation détruit plus de 90 % des fumonisines et de 80 à 95 % des aflatoxines, le taux résiduel peut encore être élevé : certaines publications rapportent des concentrations jusqu'à 100 mg/kg dans les tortillas, ce qui représente un risque avéré vue la grande consommation de tortillas au Mexique (325g/j). Le JECFA (2001) a établi une dose maximale acceptable de 2μg/kg pc/j pour la fumonisine et recommande de réduire l'exposition aux aflatoxines au plus faible niveau possible en considérant que le seuil de 1 ng/kg pc/j ne devrait pas être atteint. Au cours de cette thèse 3 enquêtes aléatoires et représentatives ont été menées dans 40 tortillerias de la ville de Veracruz. La consommation de maïs de la population a été évaluée à partir d'un questionnaire de consommation. L'analyse des mycotoxines a été réalisée par HPLC-FD par utilisation de colonnes à immunoaffinité selon la réglementation européenne (CIRAD-Montpellier). L'analyse des données obtenues a été effectuée selon une méthode probabiliste permettant de construire une fonction de distribution de probabilités à partir de la méthode de Monte Carlo (UBO). La représentativité de la population a été validée à partir d'évaluation de quotas de population après échantillonnage aléatoire initial. La contamination des tortillas a été mesurée à 0.54-1.96 mg/kg pour les aflatoxines et à 65-136 mg/kg pour les fumonisines. La consommation moyenne de tortillas a été mesurée à 148 g de maïs par jour. L'exposition de la population aux aflatoxines apparaît alors comprise entre 0,94 et 3,14 ng/kg pc/j et celle aux fumonisines entre 146 et 315 ng/kg pc/j. Les échantillons les plus contaminés proviennent des tortillerias réalisant elles-mêmes leur procédure de nixtamalisation. L'analyse des résultats montre que 60 % de la population de Veracruz serait à risque selon les préconisations du JECFA. L'exposition aux fumonisines atteint 5 % de la dose maximale acceptable, du fait d'une relativement faible contamination du maïs à cette mycotoxine. Les résultats montrent donc un risque sanitaire pour la population de la ville de Veracruz. Une extension de ce travail à la totalité de l’Etat de Veracruz, incluant la population rurale, devrait être menée du fait du risque probablement accru de cette dernière catégorie de population en lien avec sa plus forte consommation de maïs. / One of the chemical hazards that WHO has reported more frequently is cereals contamination with mycotoxins, mainly aflatoxins and fumonisins. NOM-188-SSA1-2002 establishes that aflatoxin concentration in grain should not exceed 20 mg kg-1 ; however, there are reported concentrations > 200 mg kg-1 in maize. Although it has been documented that nixtamalizacion removes more than 90% of fumonisins and between 80 and 95% of aflatoxins, the residual amount could be important, finding reports concentrations higher than 100 mg kg-1 of aflatoxin in tortilla, representing a risk due to the high consumption of tortillas in Mexico (325 g d-1). The JECFA (2001) establishes a maximum intake of 2 mg kg-1 pc d-1 for fumonisin and aflatoxin recommends reducing “as low as reasonably achievable” levels. 3 random and representative sampling in Veracruz city, each in 40 tortillerias, were made. Corn intake and weight of the population were estimated using a consumption questionnaire. Mycotoxins analysis were performed by HPLC-FD using immunoaffinity columns according to European standard UNE-EN ISO 14123 : 2008 for aflatoxins and UNE-EN 13585 : 2002 for fumonisin in the CIRAD (Montpellier, France). Statistical analysis were performed under a probabilistic approach in collaboration with the University of Bretagne Occidentale (Brest, France), building probability density function (PDF) and using the Monte Carlo method. PDF parameters of the weight of the population was 74.15kg for men (which coincides with reported by CANAIVE) and 65.83kg for women ; the pollution aflatoxin tortilla was 0.54 – 1.96mg kg-1 and fumonisin from 65.46 – 136.00mg kg-1 ; the tortilla consumption was 148.3g of corn per person per day ; the daily intake of aflatoxins was 0.94 – 3.14ng kg-1 bw d-1 and fumonisin of 146.24 – 314.99ng kg-1 bw d-1. Samples with higher aflatoxin contamination came from tortillerias that make the nixtamalization in situ. In assessing exposure it was found that up to 60% of the population could be consuming more than the recommended by JECFA (2001) for aflatoxin dose (1ng kg-1 bw d-1). Exposure to fumonisins intake was < 5% due to low contamination by these mycotoxins. The results suggest that the population of the city of Veracruz could be in food risk by eating contaminated corn tortillas AFT. It is advisable to extend this study in rural communities, where risk factors could increase.
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Development of Computational and Data Processing Tools for ADAPT to Assist Dynamic Probabilistic Risk AssessmentJankovsky, Zachary Kyle 18 September 2018 (has links)
No description available.
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