In this thesis we study the matter of hypersensitivity to model structure in the Rosenzweig- MacArthur predator-prey model, and in particular whether the introduction of stochasticity reduces the sensitivity of the !-limit sets to small changes in the underlying vector field. To do this, we study the steady-state probability distributions of stochastic differential equations driven by a compound Poisson process on a bounded subset of Rn, as steady-state distributions are analogous to !-limit sets for stochastic differential equations. We take a primarily analytic approach, showing that the steady-state distributions are equivalent to weak measure-valued solutions to a certain partial differential equation. We then analyze perturbations of the underlying vector field using tools from the theory of compact operators. Finally, we numerically simulate and compare solutions to both the deterministic and stochastic versions of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Functional analysis is a method of behavioural assessment used to determine the environmental variables maintaining a specific behaviour. While functional analysis is often used with individuals with developmental and intellectual disabilities, problem behaviours in people with dementia are rarely assessed using functional analysis methodology. The purpose of the present study was to conduct descriptive and functional analyses of problem behaviours among individuals with dementia to determine: (a) if a descriptive assessment would identify a function of the challenging behaviour assessed; (b) the extent to which stimuli identified in the descriptive assessment were needed to conduct a functional analysis; and (c) if a standard functional analysis is an effective assessment method for this population. The participants were two individuals with dementia who exhibited inappropriate vocalizations, consisting of swearing and delusional speech. For both participants, the results of the descriptive assessments suggested that the function of the behaviour was positive reinforcement in the form of attention from staff members. The findings of the descriptive analyses were confirmed in the functional analyses. The results suggest that a functional analysis informed by a descriptive analysis can identify the function of problem behaviour in individuals with dementia in a residential setting. / May 2016

Over the past century, a series of large (> 6.5) magnitude earthquakes have struck along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey in a roughly East to West progression. The progression of this earthquake sequence began in 1939 with the Ms 8.0 earthquake near the town of Erzincan and continued westward, with two of the most recent ruptures occurring near the Sea of Marmara in 1999. The sequential nature of ruptures along this fault zone implies that there is a connection between the location of the previous rupture and that of the future rupture zones. This study focuses on understanding how previous rupture events and tectonic influences affect the stress regime of the NAFZ and how these stress changes affect the probability of future rupture along any unbroken segments of the fault zone using a two dimensional finite element modeling program. In this study, stress changes due to an earthquake are estimated using the slip history of the event, estimations of rock and fault properties along the fault zone (elastic parameters), and the far-field tectonic influence due to plate motions. Stress changes are not measured directly. The stress regime is then used to calculate the probability of rupture along another segment of the fault zone. This study found that when improper estimates of rock properties are utilized, the stress changes may be under- or over- estimated by as much as 350% or more. Because these calculated stress changes are used in probability calculations, the estimates of probability can be off by as much as 20%. A two dimensional model was built to reflect the interpreted geophysical and geological variations in elastic parameters and the 1939 through 1999 rupture sequence was modeled. The far-field tectonic influence due to plate motions contributed between 1 and 4 bars of stress to the unbroken segments of the fault zone while earthquake events transferred up to 50 bars of stress to the adjacent portions of the fault zone. The 1999 rupture events near Izmit and Düzce have increased the probability of rupture during the next ten years along faults in the Marmara Sea to 38% while decreasing the probability of rupture along the faults near the city of Bursa by ~6%. Large amounts of strain accumulation are interpreted along faults in the Marmara Sea, further compounding the case for a large rupture event occurring in that area in the future. / Ph. D.

Abstract In this thesis, novel data and channel estimation methods are proposed and analyzed for low-complexity short-range communication (SRC) radios. Low complexity is challenging to achieve especially in very wideband or millimeter-wave SRC radios where phase recovery and energy capture from numerous multipaths easily become a bottleneck for system design. A specific type of transceiver is selected using pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) at the transmitter and energy detection (ED) at the receiver, and it is thus called an ED-PAM system. Nonnegative PAM alphabets allow using an ED structure which enables a phase-unaware detection method for avoiding complicated phase recovery at the receiver. Moreover, the ED-PAM approach results in a simple multipath energy capture, and only one real decision variable, whose dimension is independent of the symbol alphabet size, is needed. In comparison with optimal phase-aware detection, the appealing simplicity of suboptimal ED-PAM systems is achieved at the cost of the need for a higher transmitted signal energy or shorter link distance for obtaining a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at the receiver, as ED-PAM systems are more vulnerable to the effects of noise and interference. On the other hand, the consequences of requiring a higher SNR may not be severe in the type of SRC scenarios where a sufficient received SNR is readily available due to a short link distance. Furthermore, significant interference can be avoided by signal design. However, what has slowed down the development of ED-PAM systems is that efficient symbol decision threshold estimation and related error probability analysis in multipath fading channels have remained as unsolved problems. Based on the above observations, this thesis contributes to the state-of-the-art of the design and analysis for ED-PAM systems as follows. Firstly, a closed-form near-optimal decision threshold selection method, which adapts to a time-varying channel gain and enables an arbitrary choice of the PAM alphabet size and an integer time-bandwidth product of the receiver filters, is proposed. Secondly, two blind estimation schemes of the parameters for the threshold estimation are introduced. Thirdly, analytical error probability evaluation in frequency-selective multipath fading channels is addressed. Special attention is given to lognormal fading channels, which are typically used to model very wideband SRC multipath channels. Finally, analytical error probability evaluation with nonideal parameter estimation is presented. The results can be used in designing low-complexity transceivers for very wideband and millimeter-wave wireless SRC devices of the future. / Tiivistelmä Tässä työssä esitetään ja analysoidaan uusia data- ja kanavaestimointimenetelmiä, joiden tavoitteena on yksinkertaistaa lähikommunikaatiota (short-range communication, SRC) langattomien laitteiden välillä. SRC-radioiden yksinkertainen toteutus on poikkeuksellisen haasteellista silloin, kun käytetään erittäin suurta kaistanleveyttä tai millimetriaaltoalueen tiedonsiirtoa. Tällöin vastaanottimen yksinkertaisen toteutuksen voivat estää esimerkiksi kantoaallon vaiheen estimointi ja signaalienergian kerääminen lukuisilta kanavan monitiekomponenteilta. Näistä lähtökohdista valitaan SRC-radion järjestelmämalliksi positiiviseen pulssiamplitudimodulaatioon (pulse amplitude modulation, PAM) perustuva lähetin ja energiailmaisimeen (energy detection, ED) perustuva vastaanotin. ED-PAM-järjestelmän ei tarvitse tietää vastaanotetun signaalin vaihetta ja signaalienergian kerääminen tapahtuu yksinkertaisen diversiteettiyhdistelytekniikan avulla. Lisäksi ilmaisuun tarvitaan vain yksi reaalinen päätösmuuttuja, jonka dimensio on riippumaton PAM-tasojen määrästä. ED-PAM-tekniikan yksinkertaisuutta optimaaliseen vaihetietoiseen ilmaisuun verrattuna ei saavuteta ilmaiseksi. Yhtenä rajoituksena on alioptimaalisen ED-PAM-tekniikan luontainen taipumus vahvistaa kohinan ja häiriöiden vaikutusta symbolin päätöksenteossa. Kohinan vahvistus ei välttämättä ole suuri ongelma niissä SRC-radioissa, joissa pienen linkkietäisyyden johdosta riittävä signaali-kohinasuhde vastaanottimessa voidaan kohinan vahvistuksesta huolimatta saavuttaa. Myös häiriöiden vahvistuksen vaikutusta voidaan tehokkaasti vähentää signaalisuunnittelulla. Joka tapauksessa ED-PAM-tekniikan käyttöönottoa on hidastanut tehokkaiden symbolipäätöskynnysten estimointi- ja analysointimenetelmien puuttuminen. Edellä mainitut havainnot ovat motivoineet löytämään uusia suunnittelu- ja analyysimenetelmiä ED-PAM-järjestelmille seuraavasti. Symbolipäätöskynnysten estimointiin johdetaan lähes optimaalinen suljetun muodon menetelmä, joka kykenee adaptoitumaan muuttuvassa kanavassa ja valitsemaan mielivaltaisen kokonaisluvun sekä PAM-tasojen määrälle että vastaanottimen aika-kaistanleveystulolle. Lisäksi esitetään kaksi sokeaa päätöskynnysten estimointimenetelmää, jotka eivät tarvitse redundanttista opetussignaalia. Työn toisessa osassa ED-PAM-järjestelmän symbolivirhesuhdetta analysoidaan taajuusselektiivisessä monitiekanavassa. Analyysissä keskitytään log-normaalijakauman mukaan häipyvään kanavaan. Seuraavaksi analyysia laajennetaan ottamalla mukaan epäideaalisten kynnysarvojen estimoinnin vaikutus. Saavutettuja tuloksia voidaan hyödyntää erittäin laajakaistaisten ja millimetriaaltoalueen SRC-laitteiden suunnittelussa.

The goal of this paper is to evaluate economic efficiency of a development project, including sensitivity and probability analysis of selected residential development project. In theoretical part, the term "development project" is explained and project lifecycle is described. In this part there is also mentioned, how cash flow is determined, how cash flow report is created, and how economic efficiency indicators are calculated. It also describes specific risks of a development project. In the end of theoretical part, possible risk identification and evaluation methods are described. Practical part is focused on an actual development project. It evaluates the project using economic efficiency indicators, sensitivity analysis and probability analysis.

An evaluation of the utility of assessing and treating severe problem behavior through precursor functional analysis was completed. Ongoing measurement of problem behavior in two settings in the participant's natural environment was conducted for the duration of the study. A precursor to self-injurious behavior was identified using descriptive assessment and conditional probability analyses. A precursor functional analysis was then conducted. Subsequently, a treatment, in which precursor behavior produced the maintaining variable identified in the precursor functional analysis, was implemented in the natural environment. Treatment resulted in increases in the precursor behavior and decreases in self-injury in both the treatment setting and the second setting in which observations occurred. Implications of the assessment and treatment procedures are discussed.

The proposed diploma thesis deals with the application of methodology and tools of inverse analysis for design of selected structural parameters using a fully probabilistic analysis to determine the level of its reliability. The method based on artificial neural networks is used to approximate the inverse function. The inverse analysis was carried out in two ways that differs in the method of obtaining reliability indicators. The structure analyzed in this work was an existing bridge. The year of construction is estimated approximately between the years 1955 to 1960. The bridge is located close to the Uherský Ostroh. It is a one-piece concrete slab made of MPD3 and MPD4 girders post-tensioned by tendons. Based on the 2006 and 2007 diagnostic surveys, laboratory tests, normative regulations and recommendations and, last but not least, sensitivity analyses, an inverse design of selected design parameters was performed for required limit states. Various load levels, different alternatives of design parameters and different neural network structures were studied.