During the Syrian conflict the number of European Foreign Fighters has increased exponentially and has become an ever-growing concern for European policymakers. This phenomenon presents host of major security challenges for European policymakers and governments. Among European countries, France provides the highest number of citizens who have gone to Syria to fight against Assad´s regime. The French authorities have estimated that by mid-2014, over 700 French citizens have left France and travelled to Syria to fight. Historically France has had a relationship with Syria which started with its role as a border-drawing colonial power. Grounded in a framework of realism, that emphasizes nation-states as the primary actor within the international system, the analysis concentrates on the role of France´s foreign policy on the Syria as push factor for terrorism and radicalization. This paper attempts to determinate a specific correlation between the policy that France has been conducting towards Syria between 2000 and 2015, and the phenomenon of French Foreign Fighters. Findings suggest that France´s foreign policy towards Syria is the main root cause of the French Foreign Fighters phenomenon.

I collect data on subjects' information acquisition during real and hypothetical risky choices using process-tracing software called Mouselab. I also measure subjects' cognitive ability using the cognitive reflective test (CRT). On average, measured risk preferences are not significantly different across real and hypothetical settings. However, cognitive ability is inversely related to risk aversion when choices are hypothetical, but it is unrelated when the choices are real. This interaction between cognitive ability and hypothetical setting is consistent with the notion that some individuals, specifically higher-ability individuals, treat hypothetical choices as "puzzles" and may help explain why some studies find that subjects indicate that they are more tolerant of risk when they make hypothetical choices than when they make real choices. On average, subjects demonstrate a similar degree of consistency across settings, and there are also no significant differences across settings in the amount of time subjects take to make a choice, the amount of information they acquire, or how they distribute their attention. I also find evidence to suggest that subjects acquire information in a manner consistent with the implicit calculation of expected utility. Specifically, individuals do not merely make choices "as if" they are integrating probabilities and outcomes, it appears that they actually are. Moreover, as they progress through a series of choices in a commonly used risk preference elicitation method, their information acquisition becomes progressively more consistent with integration models. Finally, on average, individuals appear to acquire information in real and hypothetical settings in similar ways.

The use of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) or drones have in recent yearsbecome the modus operandi of US counterterrorism strategy to eliminate sought out terrorists.Since the initiation of systematic drone strikes in Pakistan 2004, their use has increased andalso expanded into other countries. In 2012 Yemen experienced equal levels of strikes asPakistan. Thirteen years have passed since the “war on terror” began and although Osama binLaden has been killed, al-Qaeda still prevails and might be expanding. This study examines apossible spread of al-Qaeda from Pakistan to Yemen, since the initiation of drone strikes, byprocess tracing. Building on the literature of al-Qaeda, counterterrorism and UCAV, the aimhas been to analyze drone strikes affect on terrorism by tracing al-Qaeda’s development.Findings suggest there are indications of a spread from al-Qaeda in Pakistan to Yemen,although further research is required to confirm uncertainties in the material.

The use of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) or drones have in recent years become the modus operandi of US counterterrorism strategy to eliminate sought out terrorists.Since the initiation of systematic drone strikes in Pakistan 2004, their use has increased andalso expanded into other countries. In 2012 Yemen experienced equal levels of strikes asPakistan. Thirteen years have passed since the “war on terror” began and although Osama bin Laden has been killed, al-Qaeda still prevails and might be expanding. This study examines apossible spread of al-Qaeda from Pakistan to Yemen, since the initiation of drone strikes, byprocess tracing. Building on the literature of al-Qaeda, counterterrorism and UCAV, the aimhas been to analyze drone strikes affect on terrorism by tracing al-Qaeda’s development.Findings suggest there are indications of a spread from al-Qaeda in Pakistan to Yemen,although further research is required to confirm uncertainties in the material.

No description available.

Under what conditions has Russia adopted assertive foreign policies towards neighbouring states in order to pursue regional primacy? Scholars usually map Russia’s foreign policy according to theoretical approaches that are generated either from the individual, the state or the structural levels of analysis. However, each of them, taken individually, cannot account for Russia’s foreign policy across space and time. This study analyses the complex interplay between causal factors by developing a neoclassical realist model of Russia’s pursue of regional primacy in the contested neighbourhood with the EU. This study employs fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) at a cross-case level and Process Tracing at within-case level. fsQCA aims to test the explanatory value of systemic conditions such as external pressure in the regional neighbourhood by other regional powers and membership of target states in a military alliance (i.e. NATO); and of domestic conditions such as Russia’s status recognition by the West, and Russia’s state capacity. This analysis is based on 27 cases of Russia’s interaction with post-Soviet states between 1992 and 2015. Process Tracing is employed as a confirmatory method for within-case analysis.The results of the study suggest that Russia was inclined to adopt assertive foreign policy instruments, particularly military intervention, if external pressure from other great powers in a neighbouring country was combined with Russia’s high state capacity to mobilise resources. Due to NATO membership by neighbouring states, Russia resorted to coercive instruments rather than to direct use of force to maintain regional primacy. Finally, from the comparative process tracing, it emerged that, besides international security concerns and domestic constraints related to Russia’s status recognition, the two violent conflicts of Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia/Abkhazia in the 1990s, which were of equal threat to Russia’s regional primacy in the South Caucasus, bore a different ‘iconic significance’ to Russia.

Since the 1980s, private sector spending on Research and Development (RandD) has outpaced federal RandD spending. For example, while the Department of Defense (DoD) spent $64 billion on RandD in fiscal year 2015, the private sector spent $260 billion. DoD relies on the private sector to develop advanced technologies for defense requirements. However, some innovative businesses are hesitant to work with DoD because of the perceived bureaucracy of the DoD procurement system. Recognizing this problem, in 1989, Congress created a new type of non-procurement agreement for DoD called Other Transactions Agreements (OTs). OTs are excluded from most laws and regulations that govern traditional procurement agreements. OTs can be written to meet the needs of the parties and the project, enabling agreements that resemble commercial contracting. Congress has expanded OT authority, and DoD has issued OT guidance to its employees. But DoD has not used OTs as widely as expected. This is puzzling because commentators find OTs are helpful to DoD and the private sector in reducing the legal and regulatory compliance costs associated with the DoD procurement system. Using qualitative methods, and drawing on the OT and historical institutionalism literature, this study explores institutional factors that may explain why DoD has not more widely used OTs. The study relied on interviews with DoD employees and contractors. OT case studies were used to triangulate the interview findings. Potential causal mechanisms are identified to support future research of the DoD OT program using causal process tracing. The study findings are used to offer policy recommendations to support the wider use of OTs by DoD. / Ph. D. / Some innovative businesses are reluctant to work with the Department of Defense (DoD) due to the perceived bureaucracy of the DoD procurement system. Recognizing this problem, in 1989, Congress created a new type of non-procurement agreement for DoD called Other Transactions Agreements (OTs). Unlike traditional procurement agreements, OTs are excluded from many of the laws and regulations that reportedly deter the private sector from doing business with DoD. OTs enable agreements that more closely resemble commercial contracting. The terms and conditions of the OT can be written to meet the needs of the parties and the OT project. Thus, OTs are a flexible tool to help attract innovative businesses that would not otherwise work for DoD under traditional procurement agreements. Congress has expanded OT authority to encourage DoD to use OTs more widely. DoD has issued guidance to help its employees negotiate and administer OTs. But DoD has not used OTs as much as expected. This is puzzling because procurement and policy experts find that OTs are helpful to DoD and the private sector in reducing the legal and regulatory compliance costs often associated with the DoD procurement system. This study explores institutional and other factors that may help explain why DoD has not more widely used OTs. The study relied on interviews with DoD employees and contractors. OT case studies were used to corroborate the interview findings. The study findings are used to offer policy recommendations to support the wider use of OTs by DoD.

Este projeto de pesquisa, que desperta a vivência e suscita questionamentos pessoais sobre os aparentes resultados da formação continuada de professores com o uso das Tecnologias Digitais de Informação e Comunicação TDIC , inicia-se com a formação introdutória para uso de software de programação para professores de informática educativa do município de São Paulo. E, em razão do rápido avanço nas relações entre as novas tecnologias e a rede, em todas as áreas socioeconômico-culturais, constata ser imprescindível expandir o conceito de fluência digital, para fortalecer o currículo Trivium contemporâneo e melhorar a situação real da educação brasileira. E questiona: qual leitura segundo a abordagem antiessencialista da tecnologia é realizada, pelo professor em formação, do software de programação, neste caso o Scratch, para utilizá-lo com seus alunos em nossas atuais escolas? Para tal investigação, utiliza-se o estudo de caso com a técnica do process tracing, adaptada à educação, de maneira a transferir a análise das causas e dos resultados para o processo em si, que é desconhecido, na criação de uma teoria. Por meio das manifestações e das atividades reais, desde a formação até a aplicação do Scratch em classe, preveem-se e testam-se evidências em mecanismo causal hipotético. Tais evidências, confirmadas ou não pelas observações em classe, por entrevistas, questionários, depoimentos e rotinas de aula, nos casos em estudo, contribuem para que se proponha a Formação Insubordinada de Professores para o uso das TDIC FoIP-TDIC. O modelo traz como premissas serem as TDIC dependentes da cultura; por meio delas, o professor pode estimular a criatividade, a consciência cidadã, a investigação e a resolução de problemas reais e relevantes, de forma a elaborar criticamente seu cotidiano. A FoIP-TDIC relativiza as evidências tidas por formadores e formandos como necessárias e/ou imprescindíveis em uma formação. Portanto, pretende ampliar ideias para a estrutura e a organização de formação inicial ou continuada do professor da educação básica, seja ela presencial ou semipresencial. Aprofundar pesquisas da FoIP-TDIC poderá contribuir para a formação rumo à Educação 4.0 em uma sociedade que se deseja solidária. / This research project, which awakens the experience and raises personal questions about the apparent results of the ongoing training of teachers with the use of Digital Information and Communication Technologies (TDIC), begins with the introductory training for the use of programming software for teachers of educational computing in the city of São Paulo. Because of the rapid progress in the relations between the new technologies and the network in all socioeconomic and cultural areas, it is essential to expand the concept of digital fluency, to strengthen the contemporary Trivium curriculum and to improve the real situation of Brazilian education. He questions: what reading - according to the antiessentialist approach of technology - is carried out by the teacher in training of programming software, in this case Scratch, to use it with his students in our current schools? For this investigation, the case study is used with the process tracing technique, adapted to education, in order to transfer the analysis of causes and results to the process itself, which is unknown, in the creation of a theory. Through the manifestations and real activities, from the formation to the application of the Scratch in class, evidence and tests in hypothetical causal mechanism are foreseen and they are tested. These evidences, confirmed or not by classroom observations, through interviews, questionnaires, statements and classroom routines, in the cases under study, contribute to the proposed Insubordinate Teacher Training for the use of TDIC - FoIP-TDIC. The model assumes that the culture-dependent TDICs are; through them, the teacher can stimulate creativity, citizen awareness, research and resolution of real and relevant problems, in order to, critically elaborate their daily lives. The FoIP-TDIC relativizes the evidences taken by trainers and trainees as necessary and / or essential in a formation. Therefore, it intends to broaden ideas for the structure and organization of initial or continuing training of the elementary school teacher, whether it is classroom or semi-presential. Deepening FoIP-TDIC research may contribute to the formation towards Education 4.0 in a society that wishes to be in solidarity.

Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es einerseits, allgemeine Erwartungen an die Bedienabläufe eines Fahrerinformationssystems zu ermitteln, welche Benutzer aus ihren Vorerfahrungen mit anderen technischen Geräten mitbringen, und andererseits zu zeigen, dass sich die Anpassung der Bedienabläufe eines Fahrerinformationssystems an diese allgemeinen Benutzererwartungen vorteilhaft auf die Gebrauchstauglichkeit des Gerätes auswirkt. Dabei wird eine Erwartung, welche in einer bestimmten Bediensituation an das Gerät besteht, verstanden als das mentale Modell von der Funktionsweise des Systems, welches der Benutzer in genau dieser Situation aus seinem schematischen Vorwissen und Merkmalen der Bedienoberfläche des zu bedienenden Gerätes bildet. In einer ersten Studie werden zunächst durch einen Vergleich mit dem konzeptuellen Modell eines bestehenden Fahrerinformationssystems diejenigen mentalen Modelle der Benutzer von Bedienabläufen identifiziert, welche interindividuell übereinstimmen. Dazu wird eine auf process tracing aufbauende, eigens entwickelte Methodik eingesetzt, welche es ebenfalls erlaubt, für diese Erwartungen diejenigen Aspekte zu ermitteln, welche unabhängig von speziellen Merkmalen des untersuchten Systems auch für Bedienabläufe eines Fahrerinformationssystems generell zutreffen. In einer nächsten Studie werden die ermittelten systemunabhängigen Benutzererwartungen verifiziert, indem aus ihnen das Bedienverhalten für ein zweites FIS mit anderem Bedienkonzept vorhergesagt wird. Dank der Verwendung des gleichen, handlungspsychologisch definierten Analyseniveaus für mentale und konzeptuelle Modelle können die verifizierten systemunabhängigen, interindividuell übereinstimmenden Benutzererwartungen als konzeptuelle Modelle in Form von Status-Übergangs-Diagrammen dargestellt und so als allgemeine Gestaltungsempfehlungen für Bedienabläufe in Fahrerinformationssystemen festgehalten werden. In einer dritten Studie werden die Bedienabläufe eines Prototypen entsprechend den allgemeinen Benutzererwartungen gestaltet und gegenüber Bedienabläufen evaluiert, welche von den Benutzererwartungen abweichen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass Bedienabläufe, welche mit den allgemeinen mentalen Modellen der Benutzer übereinstimmen, zu besseren Bedienleistungen und Systembewertung auf Seiten der Benutzer führen. Die formulierten allgemeinen Gestaltungsempfehlungen sind meist generalisierbar auf andere Domänen und die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit bieten Ansatzpunkte für zukünftige Forschungsarbeiten. / The presented research project has two main goals: To learn about the nature of users’ general expectancies towards the operation of infotainment systems in passenger cars and to show that designing the paths of operation according to the users’ expectancies has positive effects on the usability of such systems. An expectancy at a certain point in the course of operation is understood as the mental model which the user forms of the system’s functionality in this situation on the basis of the system’s interface’s properties and his or her past experiences with other technical devices. A first study compares the conceptional model of an existing in-car infotainment system with the mental models of people using this system and thus identifies which mental models are shared interindividually by a majority of the users. The methodology used in this study was developed based on process tracing and permitted to equally identify those aspects of the mental models which are independent of the specific interaction concept of the examined system and therefore apply to the paths of operation of any in-car infotainment system in general. A next study verifies the users’ system-independent expectancies found in the first study by predicting users’ behavior during the operation of a second system with a different user interface. Both the users’ mental models and the systems’ conceptional models are analyzed and described using the same level of abstraction which is defined on the basis of action regulation theory. Thus directly comparable to the conceptional models, the users’ expectancies are described as state-transition diagrams which in turn as conceptional models represent the derived recommendations for the design of operational paths in infotainment systems. A third study uses a prototype system to evaluate paths of operation which have been designed according to the general recommendations versus paths of operation which deviate from the users’ expectancies. The results of this third study show that a system with paths of operation matching the users’ general mental models permits better user performance and leads to greater customer satisfaction. The general rules for designing the paths of operation of an in-car infotainment system described in this project can be applied to other domains and open perspectives for future research.

O objetivo desta dissertação é construir uma hipótese de mecanismo causal do esquerdismo nos governos de esquerda renovadora da América Latina a partir do estudo de caso do racha à esquerda do Frente Amplio (FA) do Uruguai, e testar esta hipótese com o caso do racha à esquerda do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) do Brasil. Utilizando theory building process-tracing, a partir da literatura sobre partidos políticos foram elaboradas, e testadas no caso uruguaio, três hipóteses de partes de mecanismo causal, as quais estabelecem: (i) o movimento ao centro feito pelo FA para atingir objetivos eleitorais é parte do mecanismo causal do racha da fração 26M; (ii) as situações de crise com o governo do Presidente Tabaré Vázquez se constituíram em parte do mecanismo causal do racha do 26M; e (iii), a diminuição das oportunidades do 26M de incidir na toma de decisões do FA, combinada com sua perda de zonas de incerteza dentro do partido, tornou- se parte do mecanismo causal do racha desta fração. As evidências apresentadas para cada hipótese suportaram o Hoop test, o que deu um alto poder confirmatório das hipóteses, porém, não permitiu descartar hipóteses alternativas. Com base nos resultados do caso Uruguaio, se construiu uma hipótese de mecanismo causal dos processos de esquerdismo nos governos de esquerda renovadora da América Latina que contém 8 partes, as entidades (atores) e ações envolvidas em cada uma delas. Por fim, utilizando theory-testing process-tracing, se fizeram apontamentos sobre o funcionamento da hipótese no caso do processo das frações que racharam com o PT e formaram o Partido Socialismo e Liberdade (PSOL). As evidências apresentadas neste caso não foram submetidas a testes empíricos, porém, de maneira geral, não diminuíram nossa confiança na hipótese de mecanismo causal. Inclusive, se produzindo uma trajetória divergente entre as frações que derivou na estruturação em dois momentos do PSOL, não foi necessário adicionar de maneira ad-hoc partes para o mecanismo, pois as foças causais foram transmitidas pelas partes nele estabelecidas, encurtando-o no caso das frações que racharam no primeiro momento, e percorrendo-o parte por parte, no caso da fração que rachou no segundo momento. / The aim of this Master\'s dissertation is to construct a causal mechanism hypothesis of leftism in the Latin American renovation of left-wing governments. This will be reviewed in two parts: starting with the case study of the split in the left of the Frente Amplio (FA) party of Uruguay, and furthermore to test the hypothesis with the case study of the split in the left of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) of Brazil. Using theory- building process-tracing from literature about political parties, three hypotheses of parts of causal mechanism were elaborated and tested in the Uruguayan case, which established that: (i) the movement towards the center made by the FA to achieve electoral objectives was part of the causal mechanism of the split of the fraction 26M; (ii) crisis situations with the government of President Tabaré Vázquez were part of the causal mechanism of the split of 26M; and (iii) the reduction of 26M\'s opportunities to influence FA decision-making process, combined with the loss of zones of uncertainty within the party, became part of the causal mechanism of fracture of this fraction. The evidences presented for each hypothesis withstood the Hoop test, which gave a high confirmatory power to the hypotheses, however, they did not allow for the disregard of alternative hypotheses. Based on the results in the case of Uruguay, a hypothesis of causal mechanism of the leftist processes in the Latin American renovation of left-wing governments was constructed, which contains 8 parts, the entities (actors) and actions involved in each one of them. Finally, using theory-testing process-tracing, notes were made on the functionality of the hypothesis in the process of fractions that broke with the PT and formed the Partido Socialismo e Liberdade (PSOL). The evidence presented in this case was not subjected to empirical tests, however, in general, it did not diminish our confidence in the causal mechanism hypothesis. Even if there was a divergent trajectory between the fractions that resulted in the structuring in two moments of PSOL, it was not necessary to add parts to the mechanism ad-hoc, because the causal forces were transmitted to the parties in it, shortening it in the case of the fractions that broke initially, and going part by part, in the case of the fraction that broke after.