Under what conditions has Russia adopted assertive foreign policies towards neighbouring states in order to pursue regional primacy? Scholars usually map Russia’s foreign policy according to theoretical approaches that are generated either from the individual, the state or the structural levels of analysis. However, each of them, taken individually, cannot account for Russia’s foreign policy across space and time. This study analyses the complex interplay between causal factors by developing a neoclassical realist model of Russia’s pursue of regional primacy in the contested neighbourhood with the EU. This study employs fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) at a cross-case level and Process Tracing at within-case level. fsQCA aims to test the explanatory value of systemic conditions such as external pressure in the regional neighbourhood by other regional powers and membership of target states in a military alliance (i.e. NATO); and of domestic conditions such as Russia’s status recognition by the West, and Russia’s state capacity. This analysis is based on 27 cases of Russia’s interaction with post-Soviet states between 1992 and 2015. Process Tracing is employed as a confirmatory method for within-case analysis.The results of the study suggest that Russia was inclined to adopt assertive foreign policy instruments, particularly military intervention, if external pressure from other great powers in a neighbouring country was combined with Russia’s high state capacity to mobilise resources. Due to NATO membership by neighbouring states, Russia resorted to coercive instruments rather than to direct use of force to maintain regional primacy. Finally, from the comparative process tracing, it emerged that, besides international security concerns and domestic constraints related to Russia’s status recognition, the two violent conflicts of Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia/Abkhazia in the 1990s, which were of equal threat to Russia’s regional primacy in the South Caucasus, bore a different ‘iconic significance’ to Russia.

地緣政治係俄羅斯制定外交政策的重要考量，俄羅斯領土橫跨歐亞洲，向東與東北亞地區相連，該區域之和平穩定關乎俄國國家利益。韓國位居朝鮮半島，因冷戰時期的意識形態對立，俄韓兩國無交流合作，然而隨著冷戰結束，國際局勢的變化替兩國發展交流帶來契機。 本文研究係從俄羅斯外交政策之演變探討俄國逐漸向東轉之因，後從兩國政治、經濟、安全三大面向之互動，歸納出俄羅斯對韓國外交政策方向。 / Geopolitics is the crucial concern for Russian foreign policy. Russia has the most extensive territory in the world, and its eastern part is right next to Northeast Asia, in which the stability and peace is Russia’s national interests. South Korea is located on the Korean Peninsula, but because of the ideological conflict in Cold War era, there was barely no exchange or cooperation between Russia and South Korea. However, after the end of Cold War, the change of international relations brought the opportunity to these two countries. The dissertation focuses on discussing the policy “Pivot to East”of Russian foreign policy, and sums up Russia’s Foreign Policy toward South Korea by studying the political, economic and security interactions between two countries.

俄羅斯獨立之初，其對外政策路線為「向西方一面倒」，亞太政策並未能與其對西方政策相提並論。但在短短數年間，俄羅斯與亞太區域大國—中共的關係急遽加溫，雙方建立了戰略夥伴關係。這足以說明俄羅斯的亞太政策在其對外政策中的比重已然提升。俄羅斯現行的對外政策走的是「東西平衡」路線；從而，俄羅斯的亞太政策也有重大的調整。本論文將探討1992至1998年間，俄羅斯的亞太政策如何形成。 本論文認為：1992年俄羅斯獨立之後，俄羅斯的亞太政策乃是在國內經濟發展的需求以及戰略三角的互動等環節關聯上，受到克里姆林宮政治生態互動而形成。此一命題可再引申為下列邏輯相關的子命題：（一）由於美國主導北約的東進使俄羅斯感受威脅，加上中共與美國的戰略衝突，引起美俄中戰略三角的互動，促使俄羅斯意圖聯合中共以制衡美國，因而造成俄羅斯亞太政策的重大調整。（二）在俄羅斯國內經濟凋敝的情況下，俄屬遠東的開發為其自力救濟的唯一途徑。為加速俄屬遠東的開發，俄羅斯勢必要開創有利的國際環境，從而必須調整其亞太政策。（三）俄羅斯亞太政策的形成與其國內政治生態的互動有密切的關聯：克里姆林宮政治生態互動，造成俄羅斯的對外政策路線從原來的「向西方一面倒」徹底轉為東西平衡的「雙頭鷹」，而亞太政策就是其重要環節之一。 上述的三個成因，構成本論文的核心論點；而對應於此三個論點，本論文將分六章探討。第一章為緒論，說明研究動機與範圍、文獻述評與研究途徑。第二章：俄羅斯的亞太政策。本章將略述俄羅斯獨立後，其亞太政策的實際運作。當中以俄羅斯對中共、日本與南北韓的政策，做為重點加以描述，其次再論及俄羅斯對東南亞地區國家的政策。第三章：戰略三角互動對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響。本章將闡述戰略三角互動對俄羅斯亞太政策形成的影響。第四章：俄羅斯遠東經濟開發對其亞太政策的影響。本章將檢視俄屬遠東經濟開發對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響。第五章：俄羅斯政治生態互動對其亞太政策的影響。本章將探討克里姆林宮政治生態互動對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響。第六章：結論。 目錄-----------------------------------------------------------I 圖表目錄------------------------------------------------------VI 縮寫表------------------------------------------------------VIII 第一章 緒論---------------------------------------------------1 第一節 研究動機與目的-----------------------------------------1 第二節 研究範圍-----------------------------------------------4 第三節 文獻述評-----------------------------------------------6 第四節 研究途徑與架構----------------------------------------13 第二章 俄羅斯的亞太政策--------------------------------------24 第一節 俄羅斯對東亞政策--------------------------------------26 一、俄羅斯對中共政策------------------------------------------26 （一）俄中夥伴關係層次的提升—由「睦鄰友好」到「戰略夥伴」----26 （二）俄中夥伴關係的具體表現----------------------------------30 二、俄羅斯對台灣政策------------------------------------------36 （一）俄台關係—中斷四十年後的交流----------------------------36 （二）俄台經貿往來成果----------------------------------------37 第二節 俄羅斯對東北亞政策------------------------------------39 一、俄羅斯對日政策--------------------------------------------40 （一）俄日零和關係的轉變—「東京宣言」------------------------40 （二）俄羅斯對日政策推行的障礙—北方四島問題------------------41 二、俄羅斯對朝鮮半島政策--------------------------------------44 （一）俄羅斯對南韓政策—漸行漸遠的雙邊關係--------------------45 （二）俄羅斯對北韓政策—由疏而近的調整------------------------47 第三節 俄羅斯對東南亞政策------------------------------------49 （一）俄羅斯與東協「對話夥伴關係」的建立----------------------49 （二）俄羅斯東南亞政策的具體成就------------------------------52 第三章 戰略三角互動對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響--------------------54 第一節 俄美的戰略衝突----------------------------------------56 （一）俄美「成熟戰略夥伴關係」的建立--------------------------56 （二）俄美之間日漸浮現的衝突----------------------------------58 （三）俄美衝突的激化—美國主導北約東擴------------------------66 第二節 美中的戰略衝突----------------------------------------77 （一）「圍堵」與「反圍堵」------------------------------------77 （二）美國干涉1996年台海飛彈危機------------------------------84 （三）貌合神離的美中「建設性夥伴關係」------------------------87 第三節 俄中的戰略匯合----------------------------------------91 （一）俄羅斯對中共的軍售與技術轉移----------------------------91 （二）俄中邊界裁軍與互信措施的建立----------------------------97 （三）俄中對外戰略的互補--------------------------------------99 第四節 戰略三角互動對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響-------------------110 第四章 俄屬遠東開發對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響-------------------112 第一節 俄屬遠東的開發現況與困境-----------------------------113 （一）俄屬遠東開發的歷史回顧---------------------------------114 （二）俄屬遠東的開發現況-------------------------------------119 （三）俄屬遠東開發所面臨的困境-------------------------------123 第二節 東北亞區域經濟合作對俄屬遠東開發的必要性-------------130 （一）東北亞區域經濟合作的源起—圖們江開發計劃---------------130 （二）東北亞區域經濟合作—圖們江開發計劃的推行現況-----------133 （三）東北亞區域經濟合作對俄屬遠東開發的必要性---------------137 第三節 俄羅斯國內對俄屬遠東開發的歧見-----------------------140 （一）俄羅斯的遠東開發政策-----------------------------------140 （二）遠東地區對開發當地的看法-------------------------------146 第四節 俄羅斯為其遠東開發所做的政策調整---------------------150 （一）裡應外合的前置調整-------------------------------------150 （二）俄屬遠東開發與俄羅斯亞太政策之間的聯繫-----------------152 （三）俄羅斯亞太政策因應俄屬遠東開發的調整-------------------153 第五節 俄屬遠東開發對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響-------------------164 第五章 俄羅斯政治生態互動對其亞太政策的影響-----------------166 第一節 俄羅斯亞太政策的決策機制-----------------------------168 （一）總統府-------------------------------------------------168 （二）外交部-------------------------------------------------176 （三）國會---------------------------------------------------178 第二節 對外政策路線論爭的影響-------------------------------180 （一）俄羅斯對外政策路線的轉折-------------------------------180 （二）大西洋學派、歐亞大陸學派與大俄羅斯帝國學派-------------183 （三）對外政策路線的論戰-------------------------------------186 （四）「俄羅斯對外政策概念」與「俄羅斯的戰略」之比較---------191 第三節 府會之間對立的影響-----------------------------------197 （一）府會政爭的前夕-----------------------------------------197 （二）府會衝突的激化-----------------------------------------200 （三）府會之間對立對俄羅斯外交路線的影響---------------------209 第四節 國會政治生態的影響-----------------------------------211 （一）93國會大選後的政治生態---------------------------------212 （二）95國會改選的衝擊---------------------------------------217 （三）國會政治生態對俄羅斯外交路線的影響---------------------224 第五節 總統大選的衝擊---------------------------------------226 （一）96外長易人後國內的政治生態-----------------------------226 （二）車臣戰事的糾葛-----------------------------------------231 （三）總統大選對俄羅斯外交路線的影響-------------------------238 第六節 俄羅斯政治生態互動對其亞太政策的影響-----------------240 第六章 結論-------------------------------------------------242 參考書目-----------------------------------------------------245 / In the initial stage immediately after its dependence, Russia’s foreign policy was following the line of “inclining to the West” therefore, the gravity of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy was disproportional comparing with that of its Policy toward the West. Nevertheless, during recent years, the Russo-Chinese relation has developed rapidly, and both sides have established the “strategic partnership”. This means that Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy has become more and more significant since Russia is seeking an equilibrium between the East and the West in its current foreign policy. Against this background, this thesis will survey the factors that exert impact on the formation of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy during the period from 1992 to 1998. This thesis is taking the position that Russia’s Asia-Pacific policy has been shaped by the Kremlin politics within the context of its domestic imperative of economic development and the interaction of “Strategic Triangle” politics since the collapse of the former Soviet Union. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following three logically intertwined propositions: (1) Due to the US led NATO expansion eastward, which has created threats Russia’s security and the strategic conflict between the U.S.A. and the PRC. Russia intends to search the support from the PRC in order to check the US hegemonism. Under this consideration, Russia adjusts its Asia-Pacific Policy. (2) With the difficulties in its domestic economic development, the development of Russia’s Far East is the only way to release Russia from such a predicament. In order to accelerate the development of Russia’s Far East, Russia, it is necessary to search for a stable international condition. This consideration also demands that Russia adjust its Asia-Pacific Policy. (3) The formulation of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy is driven by its domestic political struggle: Kremlin politics makes the thoroughgoing change of Russia’s foreign policy line. Now Russia is seeking an equilibrium between the East and the West, which demands an adjustment in its Asia-Pacific policy in turn. These three factors above constitute the core points of this thesis. In accordance with these points, this thesis will be discussed in six chapters. Chapter one is introduction, it will explain the purpose, scope and approaches of this study. Chapter two will survey the development of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy during the period defined. This chapter will sketch the implementation of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy, with emphasis on Russia’s policies toward the PRC, Japan and the Korean Peninsula, and the Southeast Asia. Chapter three will explore the influence of the Strategic Triangle politics. Chapter four will examine the influence of the development of Russia’s Far East on Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy. Chapter five will discuss how the Kremlin politics influences Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy. Chapter six is conclusion.

The thesis entitled "Genesis of Russian propaganda as a serious security threat of the 21st century from the perspective of NATO and EU" examines the phenomenon of contemporary Russian propaganda. Russia commonly uses propaganda as a tool of promoting its interests. Russian propaganda is very sophisticated, aggressive, and massive. Mainly due to the effective use of the internet and social networks, Russian online actors are able, in a short space of time, to successfully generate an information chaos, which is difficult to navigate in. Contemporary Russian propaganda has several key aspects, namely the anti-American and anti-European orientation, attacks on Western democratic values, and the mixing of truth with fiction. Thus, propaganda becomes an effective weapon in the information war that the Kremlin has initiated. The West is aware of these alarming issues and tries to respond. The thesis analyzes the development of the perception of the Kremlin propaganda by the Western international security organizations NATO and EU. At the same time, it attempts to identify the moment when Russian propaganda began to be perceived as a serious security threat. Whereas the key of the analysis is to interpret the perception of Russian propaganda, the concept of securitization was chosen as the theoretical...