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This study set out to investigate the relationship between returns in the residential property markets and two key economic variables of output and interest rates. The main focus was on the short-term rates path and how it is influenced by the Taylor rule fundamentals and in turn, its effect on the returns in the property markets within the developing countries of South Africa, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Czech Republic. A secondary focus was on building a model that can be further developed into a full forecasting model of returns in the residential property markets. Output was found to be a strong driver of returns in the residential property markets across all four countries. Real changes in the economic activity feed into the residential property markets and drives returns. Output can be incorporated into a forecasting framework for returns in the residential property markets within these countries The short-term rate paths within the countries studied were found to be consistent with the Taylor rule but with heavy short run deviations from the rule. Short-term rates deviated from the rule in the short run, but showed a tendency to revert to the rule in subsequent periods. Returns and prices in the property markets were driven by the short-term rates only in two of the emerging markets. For these countries, this link between rate and returns mean there was also a link between monetary policy and returns in the property sector. Similar to the Taylor rule process, property returns in the two emerging markets were found to have short run deviations which could not be explained by interest rates and output. For the purposes of building a fully fledged forecasting model, this model must be expanded to include other explanatory factors. Adding the risk premium as an explanatory variable could be the starting point.

Este trabalho procurou demonstrar a tese de que a reestruturação econômica mundial dos últimos trinta anos ocasionou a expansão do mercado imobiliário de escritórios em São Paulo, entre outras regiões urbanas do mundo.Para tanto, analisou como a reorganização da divisão internacional e regional do trabalho privilegiou a concentração de atividades terciárias - administrativas,financeiras e de serviços especializados - nessas regiões, criando a demanda por edifícios de escritórios mais tecnologicamente adequados a essas atividades.A seguir, pesquisou como o capital imobiliário articulou-se com os capitais financeiro e corporativo no intuito de viabilizar esses empreendimentos, levando à consolidação do mercado imobiliário comercial como uma das formas típicas de investimento do atual estágio do capitalismo. A região da marginal do rio Pinheiros foi escolhida como estudo de caso por ser a que mais têm atraído investimentos nesse tipo de empreendimento desde a década de 70.Por fim, procurou compreender os efeitos desses megaprojetos, estudando os impactos do desenvolvimento terciário no uso do solo, na malha urbana, na infraestrutura viária e de transportes da região e na decadência dos outros centros de negócios da cidade. / This thesis tries to demonstrate that global economic restructuring has caused the expansion of commercial property market in São Paulo between certain urban regions of the world since the 1970s.It analyses how the reorganisation of the international and regional division of labour caused the concentration of tertiary activities administrative, finance and services related in these regions, creating demand for new technologically adapted office buildings.It has also assessed the way which finance, corporate and real estate capitals had been articulated in order to promote this development, causing the consolidation of commercial property market as a typical investment of present capitalist stage.The region of Marginal of Pinheiros River was chosen as a case-study as it is the area that has most attracted office development in São Paulo since the 1970s.Finally, it analyses the effects of these megaprojects, first analysing the impacts of tertiary development on land use, road layout, traffic and transport systems of neighbourhoods and then, relating it to the process of urban decay of consolidated business districts.

Este trabalho procurou demonstrar a tese de que a reestruturação econômica mundial dos últimos trinta anos ocasionou a expansão do mercado imobiliário de escritórios em São Paulo, entre outras regiões urbanas do mundo.Para tanto, analisou como a reorganização da divisão internacional e regional do trabalho privilegiou a concentração de atividades terciárias - administrativas,financeiras e de serviços especializados - nessas regiões, criando a demanda por edifícios de escritórios mais tecnologicamente adequados a essas atividades.A seguir, pesquisou como o capital imobiliário articulou-se com os capitais financeiro e corporativo no intuito de viabilizar esses empreendimentos, levando à consolidação do mercado imobiliário comercial como uma das formas típicas de investimento do atual estágio do capitalismo. A região da marginal do rio Pinheiros foi escolhida como estudo de caso por ser a que mais têm atraído investimentos nesse tipo de empreendimento desde a década de 70.Por fim, procurou compreender os efeitos desses megaprojetos, estudando os impactos do desenvolvimento terciário no uso do solo, na malha urbana, na infraestrutura viária e de transportes da região e na decadência dos outros centros de negócios da cidade. / This thesis tries to demonstrate that global economic restructuring has caused the expansion of commercial property market in São Paulo between certain urban regions of the world since the 1970s.It analyses how the reorganisation of the international and regional division of labour caused the concentration of tertiary activities administrative, finance and services related in these regions, creating demand for new technologically adapted office buildings.It has also assessed the way which finance, corporate and real estate capitals had been articulated in order to promote this development, causing the consolidation of commercial property market as a typical investment of present capitalist stage.The region of Marginal of Pinheiros River was chosen as a case-study as it is the area that has most attracted office development in São Paulo since the 1970s.Finally, it analyses the effects of these megaprojects, first analysing the impacts of tertiary development on land use, road layout, traffic and transport systems of neighbourhoods and then, relating it to the process of urban decay of consolidated business districts.

It widely is assumed that property markets can be predicted and to be able to make forecasts, concerning future housing prices, a number of different indicators are used. But if it possible to know the future today, why do we still experience bubbles in housing markets? To answer this question the reliability of four of the most commonly used indicators were tested for the time period between 2000 and 2010. To evaluate the indicators predicting power the development in, Germany, Sweden, Spain and the UK was studied. Germany and Sweden did not experience a correction during the most recent financial crises, while Spain and the UK did. If the evaluated indicators would be good predictors of future developments, it should have been possible to see differences in the attained values prior to the crises and it should have been easy to forecast that prices would fall in the UK and Spain and that they would be fairly stable in Germany and continue to increase in Sweden. The results from this study do not support the statement, that property prices can be forecasted, but, on the contrary, indicates that the investigated indicators have very limited predictive power in forecasting future price developments in housing markets. The result also show that variable rate mortgages can be expected to play a smoothing effect on property prices during economic cycles.

It widely is assumed that property markets can be predicted and to be able to make forecasts, concerning future housing prices, a number of different indicators are used. But if it possible to know the future today, why do we still experience bubbles in housing markets? To answer this question the reliability of four of the most commonly used indicators were tested for the time period between 2000 and 2010. To evaluate the indicators predicting power the development in, Germany, Sweden, Spain and the UK was studied. Germany and Sweden did not experience a correction during the most recent financial crises, while Spain and the UK did. If the evaluated indicators would be good predictors of future developments, it should have been possible to see differences in the attained values prior to the crises and it should have been easy to forecast that prices would fall in the UK and Spain and that they would be fairly stable in Germany and continue to increase in Sweden. The results from this study do not support the statement, that property prices can be forecasted, but, on the contrary, indicates that the investigated indicators have very limited predictive power in forecasting future price developments in housing markets. The result also show that variable rate mortgages can be expected to play a smoothing effect on property prices during economic cycles.

Pourquoi prend-on ou non des risques ? Pourquoi ne recycle-t-on pas davantage ? En situation d'incertitude, quels prix immobiliers peut-on anticiper ? Pour d'éventuelles explications et pronostics concernant ces questions, les principes d'économie comportementale peuvent être invoqués. L'économie comportementale (CE) est l'association de la psychologie et de l'économie ayant pour but de donner une explication aux comportements observés sur les marchés, comportements humains faisant preuve de rationalité limitée et de raisonnements complexes (Mullainathan et Thaler, 2000). L'étude de l'économie comportementale a inspiré un grand nombre de théories différentes et a été utilisée dans de nombreuses applications empiriques et cette thèse suit le même schéma en explorant différentes applications de l'économie comportementale. Cette thèse développe trois nouvelles extensions de l'économie comportementale aux champs du management, du choix en termes de politiques et en termes de décision d'investissement immobilier. / Why do we take risks or we do not? Why do not we recycle more? Under uncertainty what do we expect will happen to our home prices? These and many other questions are asked on daily basis.For possible explanations and answers to these and similar questions principles of behavioural economics can be used. Behavioural economics (BE) is the combination of psychology and economics that investigates what happens in markets in which some of agents display human limitations and complications (Mullainathan and Thaler, 2000). Behavioural economics provides more realistic psychological foundations to increase explanatory and predictive power of economic theory. The study of behavioural economics has inspired a number of different theories and has been used in many applications, and this thesis follows the same path and investigates different applications of behavioural economics. This thesis explores three novel applications of behavioural economics to management, policy making and property investment decision making.

The thesis analyses and compares the economies of Spain and Ireland in the run up to and during the current economic and financial crisis. Firstly, the focus is on the pre-crisis period since the mid 90's, the causes and extent of the price bubble on the property markets, the caracter of lending boom and the indebtedness of the private sector. The end of the lending boom and conjuncture on the real estate markets in 2006-2007 had strong impact on real economy and the financial sector. Both countries currently pass through a three-level crisis: economic, banking and debt crisis. The aim of the thesis is to examine their causes, evolution and causal links. The paper also illustrates future perspectives of both countries in context of the membership in EMU and possible solutions to their current situation.