The thesis consists of four chapters. The introductory chapter clarifies different notions of rationality used by economists and gives a summary of the remainder of the thesis. Chapter 2 proposes an explanation for the common empirical observation of the coexistence of infrequently-changing regular price ceilings and promotion-like price patterns. The results derive from enriching an otherwise standard, albeit stylized, general equilibrium model with two elements. First, the consumer-producer interaction is modeled in the spirit of the price dispersion literature, by introducing oligopolistic markets, consumer search costs and heterogeneity. Second, consumers are assumed to be boundedly-rational: In order to incorporate new information about the general price level, they have to incur a small cognitive cost. The decision whether to re-optimize or act according to the obsolete knowledge about prices is itself a result of optimization. It is shown that in this economy, individual retail prices are capped below the monopoly price, but are otherwise flexible. Moreover, they have the following three properties: 1) An individual price has a positive probability of being equal to the ceiling. 2) Prices have a tendency to fall below the ceiling and then be reset back to the cap value. 3) The ceiling remains constant for extended time intervals even when the mean rate of inflation is positive. Properties 1) and 2) can be associated with promotions and properties 1) and 3) imply the emergence of nominal price rigidity. The results do not rely on any type of direct costs of price adjustment. Instead, price stickiness derives from frictions on the consumers’ side of the market, in line with the results of several managerial surveys. It is shown that the developed theory, compared to the classic menu costs-based approach, does better in matching the stylized facts about the reaction of individual prices to inflation. In terms of quantitative assessment, the model, when calibrated to realistic parameter values, produces median price ceiling durations that match values reported in empirical studies.<p><p>The starting point of the essay in Chapter 3 is the observation that the baseline New-Keynesian model, which relies solely on the notion of infrequent price adjustment, cannot account for the observed degree of inflation sluggishness. Therefore, it is a common practice among macro- modelers to introduce an ad hoc additional source of persistence to their models, by assuming that price setters, when adjusting a price of their product, do not set it equal to its unobserved individual optimal level, but instead catch up with the optimal price only gradually. In the paper, a model of incomplete adjustment is built which allows for explicitly testing whether price-setters adjust to the shocks to the unobserved optimal price only gradually and, if so, measure the speed of the catching up process. According to the author, a similar test has not been performed before. It is found that new prices do not generally match their estimated optimal level. However, only in some sectors, e.g. for some industrial goods and services, prices adjust to this level gradually, which should add to the aggregate inflation sluggishness. In other sectors, particularly food, price-setters seem to overreact to shocks, with new prices overshooting the optimal level. These sectors are likely to contribute to decreasing the aggregate inflation sluggishness. Overall, these findings are consistent with the view that price-setters are boundedly-rational. However, they do not provide clear-cut support for the existence of an additional source of inflation persistence due to gradual individual price adjustment. Instead, they suggest that general equilibrium macroeconomic models may need to include at least two types of production sectors, characterized by a contrasting behavior of price-setters. An additional finding stemming from this work is that the idiosyncratic component of the optimal individual price is well approximated by a random walk. This is in line with the assumptions maintained in most of the theoretical literature. <p><p>Chapter 4 of the thesis has been co-authored by Julia Lendvai. In this paper a full-fledged production economy model with Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory features is constructed. The agents’ objective function is assumed to be a weighted sum of the usual utility over consumption and leisure and the utility over relative changes of agents’ wealth. It is also assumed that agents are loss-averse: They are more sensitive to wealth losses than to gains. Apart from the changes in the utility, the model is set-up in a standard Real Business Cycle framework. The authors study prices of stocks and risk-free bonds in this economy. Their work shows that under plausible parameterizations of the objective function, the model is able to explain a wide set of unconditional asset return moments, including the mean return on risk-free bonds, equity premium and the Sharpe Ratio. When the degree of loss aversion in the model is additionally assumed to be state-dependent, the model also produces countercyclical risk premia. This helps it match an array of conditional moments and in particular the predictability pattern of stock returns. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

No description available.

2005年4月號The Econonist 經濟學人週刊的封面刊登: 'Power at last - How the internet means the consumer really is king (and queen). ' 沒錯！消費者是國王的時代來臨了！消費者在網際網路上可以隨時隨地取得更多、更有價值的消費訊息，以極低的成本，應用網路中各種透明的消費資訊，任意的改變消費的抉擇，史無前例的表達出有別於過去被動接受產品的主動消費力量，消費利益也確實受到保護，因此以資訊為基礎的行銷策略就是消費者導向策略(Glazer,1997)，呼應了經濟學人週刊的聳動標題；本研究即証明了在獲得充分且有價值的消費資訊，對消費者在進行消費決策與行為時，是具有「主動的」改變力量，因此提供消費者更豐富的消費資訊，也必定能保護更多的消費者利益。 當新的資訊處理技術與傳播媒體出現，或是由某種新工藝的創造與發展，進而改變現存的政治、經濟與文化、風俗產生新的變遷將對消費行為，產生戲劇化影響(Innis, 1951; McLuhan, 1964)，原因在於消費者在面對嶄新而且陌生的消費環境，所採取維護自身消費利益的因應之道；本研究引用學者 Kahneman and . Tversky 提出的「預期理論」（Prospect Theory)，以及Barry Schwatz（2004）提出的「經驗效用」（Experienced Utility）、「期望效用」（）、「記憶效用」（Remembered Utility），因為以人類基於維護自身利益為出發點，方能準確反映出消費者的行為，洞察消費變化的先機；特別是在網際網路平台上對此議題的研究，本研究尚屬先例。 企業經營的成敗可由她與客戶關係的良莠顯現，衡量客戶關係最重要的指標就是：企業是否能由與消費者在消費流程互動中（關係），掌握所留下的足跡（資訊），加以解讀應用並促進消費者再消費，如此資訊的應用就是 Rashi Glazer所稱的企業「關鍵資產」，反映出不斷促進產品、服務交易的要素( Glazer,1997)：如果廠商忽視此變化，影響所及，失去的將不只是企業經營的「關鍵資產」，甚至還會被消費者「主動」的遺棄；因此，在企業經營的研究中，能將劇變如此的消費行為與決策，研究出可遵循與掌握的模式，相信對廠商競爭力的提升有莫大助益。 本研究的貢獻呈現在CORM-PET模式，也就是展現消費者是如何表達他「主動」消費力量的軌跡；試想，當企業發現消費者表示喜歡你的產品卻無消費行動，在過去對企業的影響並不明顯，因為同行也不知道何以如此（無資訊）！但是面對資訊處理能力百倍於過去的今天，能經由對資訊精準處理與應用，知道其中原因的廠商將嶄露頭角；CORM-PET模式就是我們提出能解釋消費行為何以如此的模式，以及能精確應用當前處理資訊的能力，解讀消費行為留下的資料轉為有力的應用資訊，幫助供需雙方在新興「資訊經濟時代」的市場交易中各取所需。 關鍵詞 消費者導向、預期理論、期望效用、記憶效用、經驗效用、稟賦效用、定錨效用、框架效用、消費風險、消費價值、頂端效用、可得性捷思法 / The front cover title of The Econonist magazine (April of 2005) read ' Power at last-How the internet means the consumer really is king (and queen). ' Consumers can obtain more valuable consumption information whenever and wherever in the internet, this shows unprecedentedly consumers’ active consumption strength which is different from their passively accepted the products in the past. Consumers can use the transparent price information in the network with the extremely low cost, and are free to choose any consumption. Consumption interests are also really protected, so the marketing tactics based on information are that consumers lead tactics (Glazer, 1997), which echoed the title of the The Econonist magazine. This research has proved that valuable and sufficient consumption information for consumer while making consumption decision provide active power of change. Therefore, offering more abundant consumption information to consumers can certainly protect more consumers’ interests. Enterprises’ relation with customers can reflect the success or failure of their management. The most important criteria of the relationship are whether both enterprises and consumers can keep enough track in the consumption procedure to facilitate the same consumer to consume again. This is what Glazer (1997) said ' key assets ' of enterprises, which reflect key elements to promote products, service trade constantly. If the owner ignores the fact that information changes consumption decision and behavior, he or she will lose not only ' key assets ' of enterprises, but also can be abandoned by consumers. So if academic research of enterprise management can figure out the model of drastic change of the consumer behavior and decision, which can be followed and grasped, manufacturer's competitiveness will be greatest improved. The change of consumption decision and behavior is because the consumer guided by information in the face of brand-new and strange consumption environment (network market) to adopt and safeguard self-consumption interests. Historian and mass communication scholar (Innis, 1951; McLuhan, 1964) point out such a change, as new materials treatment technology and media appear or new craft created and developed can change extant politics, economy, culture and custom. Other scholars maintain one after another that must extend the value concept of the customer in the past to apply to the business activity in the internet network (Keeney, 1999; Keeney, 1992; Rayport, Sviokla, 1994). All the scholars’ academic researches of mankind’s protect one's own interests over the years, the most excellent theories are 'Prospect Theory' by Kahneman ＆ Tversky. Schwatz’ (2004) 'Experienced Utility ', ' Expected Utility' , ' Remembered Utility '. We adopt the academic research of above-mentioned scholars, as the foundation of developing this research, because the academic research is based on mankind’s safeguarding one's own interests, which is different from others are on roles development. This research based on this kind of research to develop more concrete consumption behavior, especially the consumer behavior on the internet network platform, still belongs to the precedent. The contribution of the study appears in CORM-PET model, which represents how consumers express their initiatively consumption power. Just try to think that when the enterprises find that consumers like your products but not having the consuming action. There was not obvious in the past influence enterprises’ for the counterparts had no idea about the reasons. But information handling ability hundred times to the past today, the manufacturers who can process and apply with information accurately, and know the whys and wherefores will show up prominently. The CORM-PET model we proposed helps to explain how the consumer behavior like this pattern, dealing with information accurately, to understand the materials staying behind in consumer behavior transferring to powerful application information, to help both. Key words: Consumer orientation, Prospect theory, Expected utility, Remembered utility, Experienced utility, Endowment effect, Anchor effect, Framing effect, Consumer risk, Consumer value, Peak effect, Availability heuristics