This dissertation examines Cassell's theory of purchasing power parity within the context of post-World War II foreign exchange markets and government policies.

Research Report: BUSA7167 (MM Finance and Investment Management). Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the (Master of Management in Finance and Investments). Submitted on 06th June 2016 / The findings of the research have implications on the efficiency of the South African exchange rate market, and by extension, the efficiency of similar emerging foreign exchange markets. The study used Ordinary Least Square Approach and Johansen cointegration. Despite their theoretical appeal, and in line with a dozen of related past literature, the findings of the research generally favour the rejection UIP, PPP and IFE. The findings have implications on some regulatory measures that can be undertaken by the financial authority to improve the efficiency of the foreign exchange market. While there have been extensive studies on uncovered interest parity (UIP), purchasing power parity(PPP), and the international Fisher effect(IFE), research has scarcely tested these hypotheses in the context of emerging markets. This study attempts to bridge the existing gap by testing the three related parity condition for South Africa. / MT2016

A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, 2012. / The purpose of this study is to investigate if the International Comparison Program (ICP) methodology could be used to examine the different buying power (worth) of the currency on the same products or goods amongst South African provinces. The method will be tested on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) food data collected from January 2006 to December 2006 from the main cities in the provinces. The food basket is obtained via the Income and Expenditure Survey (IES), which is generally updated every 5 years. South Africa (SA) has disparities and differentials in economic indicators such as the CPI, Gross Domestic Product and employment, amongst the provinces which are caused by among other things geographic set-up, urbanisation, inflation rates, and expenditure patterns. We use the monthly data to do an inter-provincial comparison of food prices by deriving annual purchasing power parities (PPPs) for each of the provinces, using the Country Product Dummy (CPD) method recommended as best practice by the World Bank. The CPI data is validated using the SEMPER software developed by the African Development Bank (AfDB). The validated data is examined for variability over the months and between the provinces using Analysis of Variance. Significant price differences are found for various products over the months and between provinces. The validated data was used to compute PPPs at the group and basic heading level. PPPs were investigated for differences in the provinces on grouped level of food products using Analysis of Variance. The reliability of PPPs between provinces is investigated both at grouped and basic heading level of products using the Cronbach-alpha statistic. The results show that there are no significant variations in PPPs across provinces. This could be due to the similar business opportunities or developments in the provinces or due to the aggregation of prices from the individual product (basic heading) to the main product group level. This implies that the cost of the food basket is the same across provinces.

O objetivo desse estudo é avaliar a validade da Teoria da Paridade do Poder de Compra (PPC) no Brasil em sua recente experiência de regime de câmbio flutuante, 1999M01-2009M12. São empreendidas decomposições da taxa de câmbio real de forma a evidenciar o papel da taxa de câmbio nominal, dos preços de bens comercializáveis e não comercializáveis, e preços das exportações e importações. A validade da PPC é diretamente testada através de testes de cointegração. Os resultados apontaram que ambos os setores, dos comercializáveis e não comercializáveis, são relevantes nos desvios da taxa de câmbio real, mas que a fonte de desvios não estacionários da PPC está relacionada ao setor dos não comercializáveis, tendo-se, portanto, evidência favorável à validade da Teoria da PPC para o setor dos comercializáveis no Brasil durante o período. Na relação de cointegração do setor dos comercializáveis, a taxa de câmbio nominal se apresentou fracamente exógena e os índices de preços tiveram velocidades de ajustamento significativas, sendo maior para os preços externos. Esses resultados são consistentes com um cenário em que a determinação da taxa de câmbio nominal é dominada por fatores fora do escopo da PPC e os preços dos comercializáveis se ajustam à relação de equilíbrio. / The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity Theory (PPP) in Brazil during its recent experience of floating exchange rate regime, 1999M01- 2009M12. Real exchange rate decompositions are undertaken in order to highlight the role of nominal exchange rate, prices of tradable goods and relative prices of nontradable goods, and prices of exports and imports. The validity of PPP is directly tested through cointegration tests. The results have shown that both sectors are relevant for the deviations of the real exchange rate, but that the source of non-stationary deviations from PPP is related to the nontradable sector, and, therefore, there was favorable evidence for the validity of PPP theory for tradable goods sector in Brazil between 1999 and 2009. For the cointegration relationship of the tradable sector, the nominal exchange rate appeared to be weakly exogenous and the index prices presented significant speeds of adjustment, which was higher for foreign prices. These results are consistent with a scenario in which the nominal exchange rate determination is dominated by factors outside the scope of the PPP and the prices of tradable goods adjusts to the equilibrium relationship.

Thesis. 1980. Ph.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY. / Includes bibliographies. / Ph.D.

The thesis documents the changes in Italian public opinion towards the Euro. Its aim is to assess the relevance of economic factors for the decline in Italian support for the common currency. The thesis begins by assessing the extent to which support for the Euro has declined in Italy. While there has been popular, media and political comment on this issue, the thesis investigates the changes in attitude through the use of survey material and concludes that there is compelling evidence that public support for the Euro has declined in Italy. The thesis adopts a utilitarian/rational choice approach in order to investigate the reasoning behind the Italian public's developing relationship with the single currency from 1998 to the present. Its central question is: How have economic factors impacted on the Italian public's support for the Euro? The analysis focuses on Italians' perceptions - not their actual knowledge - of national and individual level economic changes brought about by the single currency. The thesis investigates how such perceptions have impacted Italian popular support for the Euro over the period 1998-2007. The method employed in this thesis is primarily based around analysing quantitative data gathered from Standard and Flash Eurobarometers. Other sources considered are academic literature and newspaper articles. The analysis clearly suggests that Italians' optimism towards their national and personal economic situations have all decreased since the Euro was introduced, concurrently with their diminishing support for the Euro. This work suggests that the main reason for decreased support lies in Italian perceptions that the Euro has contributed to worsening economic situations at both the national and individual levels. In particular, Italians believe the Euro has spurred inflation and diminished their purchasing power, and accuse it of failing to promote economic growth and jobs. However, Eurobarometer data combined with newspaper articles indicate that it is the perceived economic consequences at the individual level - loss of purchasing power due to Euro-related price increases, and pessimism towards their household financial situation - that more strongly determine Italians' decreasing support for the Euro.

Abstract It is well known that geographical distances between nations cause differences in cul-tural resemblances as well as affinity. Defined, affinity is inheriting similarities between nations in familiarity, language and mutual understanding. It cause variations in the uni-lateral trade volume flowing towards the destination countries and can be estimated by a traditional gravity model (GM). So far Swedish affinity towards Czech Republic (CZ) has remained unexplored. Hence, this paper investigates Swedish firm´s export perfor-mance and affinity towards CZ, both through the aggregate export and the extensive margin (average number of exporters). The investigation aims to seek clarification of what particular factors influence unilateral export towards CZ as well as stronger affini-ty in contrast to similar markets. To answer those questions, a one sided GM is re-gressed on two gravity equations, covering panel data for 177 destination countries from year 1997 to 2006. Results are in line with the expected behavior of the GM and show evidently; distance as well as land lock features have negative effects on unilateral ex-ports to CZ. Additionally, evidence of positive influence on unilateral export is found for GDP and familiarity to the nation. Both regressions for the gravity equations are showing high goodness of fit for the panel data. Findings of positive residuals in both the equations conclude that Swedish export have stronger affinity to CZ and solider country characteristics than its resembling countries Slovenia and Slovakia. However, positive residuals also indicate larger export flows to CZ than motivated by the tradi-tional GM coefficients. Various explanations are suggested as origins for those, such as differences in purchasing power and regions, were Prague was found to be the most suitable option for export and other regions rather for outsourcing possibilities.

Nested by linear cointegration first provided in Granger (1981), the definition of nonlinear cointegration is presented in this paper. Sequentially, a nonlinear cointegrated economic system is introduced. What we mainly study is testing no nonlinear cointegration against nonlinear cointegration by residual-based test, which is ready for detecting stochastic trend in nonlinear autoregression models. We construct cointegrating regression along with smooth transition components from smooth transition autoregression model. Some properties are analyzed and discussed during the estimation procedure for cointegrating regression, including description of transition variable. Autoregression of order one is considered as the model of estimated residuals for residual-based test, from which the teststatistic is obtained. Critical values and asymptotic distribution of the test statistic that we request for different cointegrating regressions with different sample sizes are derived based on Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed theoretical methods and models are illustrated by an empirical example, comparing the results with linear cointegration application in Hamilton (1994). It is concluded that there exists nonlinear cointegration in our system in the final results.

This dissertation includes two chapters in the field of international finances about foreign exchange rate predictability and testing purchase power parity. In each chapter, we build the theory, methodology, and the empirical results to present the paper¡¦s construction. The first chapter, we studies whether the pure price inflation rate which is extracted from stock return can help us to test the relative of purchasing power parity in where Asian countries include Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Singapore against the United States. The paper of Chowdhry et al. (2005) argue that relative PPP may not hold for the official price inflation rates which is constructed from consumer price indices, since relative price changes and other frictions cause price to be sticky. Thus, they use the Fisher equation and Fama-French three factors elaborately to build up a model on the nominal return of real risk-free asset to extract the pure price inflation rates. Their argument is supported in the case of Japan, Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom. We are interested in the case of some Asian countries. So, this chapter, we extend the model and methodology of Chowdhry et al. (2005) to test the relative PPP for Asian countries. If our empirical evidence is firmly supported, it will be a strongly reconfirmed the elaborated idea of Chowdhry et al. (2005). In our study, the PPP rule is not supported for Asian countries since joint null hypothesis of a=0 and b=1 are rejected at all horizons except Taiwan at monthly horizon. The testing results by constrained seeming unrelated regression (SUR) and system equation in pooled data are similar to the tests of country-by-country. Therefore, we apply the methods of panel unite root from Im et al. (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), and Pesaran (2007) to test the PPP doctrine, and it is strongly supported PPP for Asian countries. The second chapter, we extract the estimated data of pure price inflation by Chowdhry et al. (2005), and use the data to build up a nonlinear STR (smooth transition autoregressive) model by Granger and Teräsvirta (1993), then compare the performance of linear or nonlinear model of exchange rate predictability with random walk model in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany. This study has presented evidences that the extracted inflation rates offer a good predictability on the prediction of exchange rate for the United Kingdom and Germany. Those extracted data in which are calculated from the industry portfolio returns of stock market. The issue of series correlation in regression error does matter the estimated coefficients £]k, thus we estimate the simulation of Gaussian bootstrap distribution for testing variables with Newey West standard deviation in regression estimate. The empirical evidences show that the PPP doctrine affects the predictability performance of exchange rate change by the extracted inflation rates.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is an important theory of exchange rate determination. The documents probing into the PPP theory are voluminous nowadays; however, there hasn¡¦t been an agreed conclusion yet. In this paper, we apply the Panel Lagrange Multiplier unit root test, a newly developed panel unit root test that allows for heterogeneous breaks, under both the null and the alternative, in both the level and trend of the series under investigation, addressed by Im, Lee and Tieslau (2010). The validity of PPP theory can be examined by testing the stationary of real exchange rates. We use the data chosen from the countries of Asia, including Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Tailand, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore to proceed the positive analysis. The result shows that no matter we use CPI or WPI as the price index, both considering more about the structure breaks and using the panel unit root test strongly support the PPP theory. And it also shows that when using the WPI as the price index, there would be much more countries support the PPP theory.