Esta dissertação trata da perspectiva sobre a avaliação de investimentos em condições de risco, especificamente o caso da infraestrutura urbana, buscando-se um aperfeiçoamento dos métodos tradicionais de análise de investimento, através da aplicação do Método de Monte Carlo (MMC) e da criação de planilha eletrônica, possibilitando o refino e agilidade no processo de tomada de decisão quanto ao investimento em infraestrutura urbana. O objetivo principal deste trabalho consiste na promoção de critérios objetivos para a aceitação de projetos de investimento em infraestrutura urbana, cenário que apresenta inúmeras condições de risco. Para isto será desenvolvida uma ferramenta computacional, utilizando-se do MMC para refinar os métodos tradicionais. Para testar o modelo desenvolvido será utilizado o caso da ampliação física do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre. Assume-se a premissa que o emprego de métodos tradicionais como análise do VPL, payback e TIR não são suficientes para embasar as tomadas de decisão quando os investimentos estão em condições de risco. A partir das contribuições teóricas dos campos de estudos sobre Estatística, Engenharia Econômica, Análise de Investimentos e Tecnologia Computacional, propõe-se a elaboração de planilha eletrônica através de implementos em Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) e o uso do MMC objetivando expandir as possibilidades de análise existentes de investimento em condições de risco; situação esta encontrada em investimentos de infraestrutura, atingindo um aperfeiçoamento dos métodos tradicionais. Para isto, será realizada simulação em cenário real: a ampliação física do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre. Conclui-se que, enquanto a análise de investimento do caso em estudo pelo método do VPL embasou a viabilidade financeira de execução do investimento através de sua aceitabilidade, quando o modelo é aperfeiçoado através do MMC e princípios estatísticos, como por exemplo o Princípio de Pareto, o mesmo investimento demonstrou-se instável e concluiu-se que sua viabilidade não poderia ser garantida. Isto se deve ao fato de que, em projetos de infraestrutura, os riscos devem ser apreciados, cenário não identificado no uso de métodos tradicionais. / This dissertation deals with the perspective on the evaluation of investments in risky conditions, specifically the case of urban infrastructure, aiming at an improvement of the traditional methods of investment analysis, through the application of the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) and the creation of spreadsheet, enabling refining and agility in the decision-making process regarding the investment in urban infrastructure. The main objective of this work is the promotion of objective criteria for the acceptance of investment projects in urban infrastructure, a scenario that presents risk conditions. For such, a computational tool using the MCM to refine the traditional methods will be developed. To test the developed model, the case of the physical enlargement of the Hospital de Clínicas of Porto Alegre will be used. It is assumed that the use of traditional methods such as analysis of NPV, payback and IRR are not enough to support decision making when investments are in risky conditions. From the theoretical contributions of the field of studies on Statistics, Economic Engineering, Analysis of Investments and Computational Technology, it is proposed the elaboration of electronic spreadsheets through Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) tools and the use of MCM in order to expand the existing possibilities of investment in risky conditions, a situation found in investments in infrastructure, reaching an improvement of the traditional methods. For such, a simulation in a real scenario - the physical expansion of the Hospital of Clinics of Porto Alegre - will be done. It is concluded that, while the investment analysis of the case under review by the VPL method supported the feasibility of execution of the investment through its acceptability, when the model is improved through MCM and statistical principles such as the Pareto Principle, the same investment was proved unstable and it was concluded that its viability could not be guaranteed. This is due to the fact that in infrastructure projects the risks should be appreciated, an unidentified scenario in the use of traditional methods.

Syftet med uppsatsen är att skapa en affärsplan och utveckla vår affärsidé som från början var att sälja herrkläder i ett lägre prissegment till killar mellan 18-30 år på den svenska marknaden. Våra problemformuleringar är; Hur utformar vi en hållbar affärsplan? Hur skapar vi en affärsidé för vårt valda koncept? Hur ska erbjudandet utformas och vilka delar bör ingå för att nå potentiella konsumenter?Vi har studerat olika källor där exempel på affärsplaner och vad de innehåller tagits upp, vi har även genom personliga möten på Drivhuset i Borås fått hjälp av projektledaren Linn Johansson att utveckla vårt koncept och affärsplan. Genom en marknadsundersökning där vi tillfrågade killar mellan 18-30 år så ville vi ta reda på vilken som är vår målgrupp och även se om det finns intresse får vårt koncept. Undersökningen gav oss en bra grund att bygga vidare vår affärsplan och affärsidé på. I vår affärsplan har vi valt att koncentrera oss på affärsidén, visioner och mål, marknadsplan och risker. I marknadsplanen bestämmer vi vår marknad genom segmentering och positionering. Vi tittar på konkurrensbilden genom SWOT-analyser och en omvärldsanalys. Vi presenterar marknadsmixen och hur vi valt att använda oss av den för att nå ut på marknaden och vilka delar som vi tycker är viktigast för oss. Vi har i uppsatsen analyserat vår tänkta kund, marknad och konkurrenter genom olika metoder. Exempelvis har vi gjort SWOT-analys på vår affärsidé och även på de två största konkurrenterna som vi fick fram genom marknadsundersökningen, Jack &amp; Jones och Carlings. Genom Porters femkraftsmodell har vi också analyserat andra tänkbara faktorer som kan påverka oss än de faktorer som tar upp den befintliga situationen på marknaden. I slutet av vår affärsplan har vi presenterat tre tänkbara riskscenarier där vi tar upp det bästa som kan hända(bästa fallet), det värsta som kan hända(sämsta fallet), det som troligtvis kan inträffa(normalfallet), riskerna med dem samt hur vi skall kunna åtgärda dem. / <p>The purpose of this paper is to create a business plan and develop our business concept that was originally selling men's clothing at a lower price segments for men between 18-30 years in the Swedish market. Our problem formulation is: How do we design a sustainable business plan? How do we create a business concept for our selected concept? How should the offer be designed and what elements should be included to reach potential consumers? We have studied different sources with examples of business plans and what they contains, we have also through personal meetings at Drivhuset in Borås been assisted by the Project Manager Linn Johansson to develop our concept and business plan. In a survey did we interview men between 18-30, because we wanted to find out which one is our target audience and also see if there is interest for our concept. The study gave us a good foundation to build our business plan and business concept on. In our business plan we have chosen to concentrate on the business concept, vision and objectives, marketing plan and risks. In the market plan we will determine our market through segmentation and positioning. We look at the competitive landscape through SWOT analysis and business intelligence. We present the marketing mix and how we chose to make use of it to reach the market and which parts we think are most important to us. In our essay we have analyzed our prospective customer, market and competitors through various methods. For example, we have SWOT analysis of our business and also on the two largest competitors as we got up by the market investigation, Jack & Jones and Carlings. By Porters five forces we have also analyzed other potential factors that may affect us than the factors that reflects the current market situation. I the end of our business plan, we have presented three possible risk scenarios in which we take up the best thing that can happen (best case) and, the worst that could happen (worst case), it is as likely to occur (typically), the risk associated with them, and how we to remedy them.</p><p>Program: Butikschefsutbildningen</p>

L’essor des transports à une échelle globale s’inscrit dans un phénomène de mondialisation et 90% des biens échangés au travers le monde sont effectués par voie maritime. La maritimisation se définit comme un processus de dépendance économique des états au trafic maritime due à ce phénomène de mondialisation (Vigarié 1983). Ce phénomène transforme les territoires, et principalement les espaces côtiers mais a également comme conséquence une territorialisation des espaces maritimes, à savoir une utilisation et gestion des espaces pour les activités humaines. L'utilisation de cet espace a augmenté depuis 1970 et principalement le transport, que ce soit via porte-conteneurs ou tanker (Rodrigue, Comtois, and Slack 2013). Cela forme ainsi un réseau de transport maritime et d’approvisionnement lié à l’emplacement des ports dans le monde et des routes maritimes les reliant. Cependant ce réseau s’étend sur un espace vaste et dynamique, l’espace maritime, qui peut générer des risques pour l’usage de l’espace à des fins de transports.Ce réseau d’approvisionnement est vulnérable face à certains événements (perturbations) pouvant affecter la performance du réseau d’approvisionnement (Achurra-Gonzalez et al. 2016) : les tempêtes, les pénuries, la piraterie maritime, les fermetures de canaux sont des événements ayant une influence sur l’efficacité d’un réseau d’approvisionnement. Cette vulnérabilité est liée à plusieurs facteurs (Wagner and Neshat 2010) : les variations de l’offre et de la demande, les risques économiques, et à la structure du réseau et de l’espace maritime, les risques géographiques. L’ensemble de ces risques peuvent être mesurés et quantifiés dans les caractéristiques topologiques, géométriques et relationnelles des graphes. Un graphe est un ensemble de noeuds relié par un ensemble de lien. Les graphes sont utilisés pour la formalisation des réseaux, notamment des réseaux de transports (Ducruet and Lugo 2013).Afin de tester les perturbations sur les caractéristiques du réseau, un système de simulation est mis en place. Pour cela, les perturbations sont modélisées par des objets spatio-temporels ayant une influence sur l’accessibilité à l’espace des navires. Au travers d’un système multi-agents (Ferber 1997), ces navires prennent des décisions face aux perturbations (changement de route, de destination, report ou annulation du voyage). Ces comportements individuels, une fois agrégés, par la pondération des noeuds et des liens du graphe, permettent d’évaluer les variations topologiques et géométriques du graphe en fonction des perturbations dans l’espace maritime, grâce à des indicateurs utilisés pour mesurer la vulnérabilité des réseaux (Gleyze 2005). Ainsi cette recherche permet de mieux comprendre l’influence de ces perturbations sur le fonctionnement d’un réseau d’approvisionnement dans un espace maritime. / Transportation on a global scale is due to the globalization process. Today, 90% of goods in the world are traded by sea. Maritimization is defined as a process of increased economic dependence of states on maritime traffic (Vigarié 1983). This phenomenon transforms territories, mainly the coastal areas, but also results in a territorialization of maritime spaces, which means a use and a management of maritime space for human activities. The use of this space for transportation has increased since 1970, whether through container ships or tanker (Rodrigue, Comtois, and Slack 2013). These trips have created a network which linked the locations of the ports in the world by the sea routes of shipping. However, this network extends over a vast and dynamic space, maritime space, which can generate risks for the use of space for transportation.This supply network is vulnerable to certain events (disruptions) that may affect the performance of the supply network (Achurra-Gonzalez et al., 2016): storms, shortages or maritime piracy have an influence on the efficiency of a supply network. This vulnerability is linked to several factors (Wagner and Neshat 2010): variations in supply and demand, which are economical risks, and the structure of the network and maritime space, which are geographical risks. All these can be measured and quantified by the topological, geometric and relational properties of graphs. A graph is a set of nodes connected by a link set. The graphs are used for the formalization of networks, notably transport networks (Ducruet and Lugo 2013).To test the disruptions on the characteristics of the network, a simulation system is used. In the simulations, disruptions are modeled by space-time objects having an influence on the accessibility of the vessels. Through a multi-agent system (Ferber 1997), these ships make decisions about disruptions (change of route, destination, postponement or cancellation of the trip). These individual behaviors, once aggregated by the weighting of the nodes and links of the graph, allow evaluating the topological and geometric variations which represent the influence of disruptions on the martitime network. Theses variations can be measured by indicators of the vulnerability of network (Gleyze 2005). This research allows us to improve the understanding on the influence of these disruptions on a network within a dynamic space.

Le but principal des travaux dont fait l’objet cette thèse, consiste à estimer le risque de foudroiement d’une structure ou d’un site. Un modèle de protection a donc été développé afin d’évaluer les probabilités d’impact sur chaque partie d’une structure complexe. Ce modèle, qui est une évolution du modèle électrogéométrique servant de référence dans les normes de protection, permet notamment d’identifier « très finement » les zones les plus vulnérables de cette structure, quel que soit le type de coup de foudre. À cet effet, une analyse statistique des données du réseau de détection a également été menée et intégrée au modèle pour tenir compte du type de coup de foudre ou encore du contexte géographique. Dans le but de valider ce modèle, celui-ci a été appliqué au site du Pic du Midi de Bigorre, au sommet duquel un ensemble de diagnostics électriques et optiques a été installé. Ce site en altitude présente une structure relativement complexe de par la présence de divers bâtiments et d’une antenne de télédiffusion. Les mesures expérimentales recueillies sur ce site ont mis en évidence le foudroiement quasi systématique de cette antenne, validant ainsi les résultats fournis par le modèle. Par ailleurs, les différents phénomènes physiques mis en jeu lors du foudroiement d’une structure en altitude ont été étudiés grâce à l’instrumentation développée au sommet du Pic du Midi de Bigorre : sondes de courant, capteurs de champ et réseau de caméras. Les différentes phases d’un coup de foudre ont notamment été analysées à partir des mesures des variations rapides du champ électrique. L’analyse de ces variations à l’échelle de la cellule orageuse a également mis en évidence le fait que des décharges apparaissant à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres du Pic du Midi peuvent initier un coup de foudre ascendant sur le site. Enfin, à partir de l’allure du courant écoulé lors d’un coup de foudre, déduite des enregistrements vidéo d’une caméra rapide, la polarité et le sens de propagation (descendant ou ascendant) de ces coups de foudre ont pu être associés à leurs caractéristiques temporelles et aux quantités de charges consommées au cours de leurs développements. / The main purpose of this thesis work is to estimate the risk of a structure or a site being struck by lightning. A lightning protection model was developed with the aim to calculate the impact probability on every part of a complex structure. This model is an evolution of the electrogeometric model used as a reference in the lightning protection standards. In particular it allows identifying the most vulnerable areas of the structure, regardless of the type of lightning. To this end, a statistical analysis of the detection network data was also conducted and integrated in the model to take into account the type of flash or the geographical context. In order to validate this model, it was applied to the site of the Pic du Midi de Bigorre, at the top of which several electrical and optical diagnostics were installed. This site in altitude has a relatively complex structure because of the presence of various buildings and a broadcast antenna. The experimental measurements collected on this site show that the broadcast antenna is struck almost systematically which is in line with the results provided by the model. In addition the different physical phenomena involved during a lightning strike on a structure in altitude were studied using the instrumentation developed at the top of the Pic du Midi de Bigorre: current probes, electric field sensors and video cameras. In particular the different phases of a flash were analyzed from the measurements of the electric field variations. The analysis of the latters at the storm cell scale also highlighted the fact that flashes occurring to tens of kilometers from the Pic du Midi can initiate an upward flash on the site. Finally, the lightning current shape was deduced from video recordings of a high-speed camera. Thus the polarity and the propagation direction (upward or downward) of these flashes were associated with their temporal characteristics and with the charges consumed during their development.

The thesis is focused on risk and uncertainty in decision theory. It introduces principles of choosing the best alternative in case of uncertainty and risk, as well as different ways how to quantify and manage the risk, therefore the risk management. The thesis also discusses simulation, definition of random numbers and generating of these numbers. Monte Carlo method is widely used in this area. One of the applications based on Monte Carlo method is Crystal Ball; detailed description of this application is also mentioned. At the close, an example of the capital project valuation is provided as the demonstration of Crystal Ball application.

Dissertation deals with the analysis of investment projects. Specifically it is focused on the utilization of probability approaches to analysis of investment projects. These approaches are represented by scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.The treatis contains critical comparison of both approaches and offers the set of recommendation to the application of both methods. The inherent part of this work is postaudits analysis which are accompanied by the set of recommendation as well.

This final thesis is regarding the creating and evaluation of the business plan of private nursery school. The theoretical part is about small and medium-sized enterprises and business plan itself. Practical part contains concrete business plan. Crucial parts of the business plan are: analysis of the environment, marketing mix, financial plan, risk analysis.

Globalization and growing economic integration within different geographic areas are the main factors having impact on increasing number of companies involved in international business. However, due to recent economic turbulences on the international markets during the last years, this trend is associated with higher level of risk. To ensure the stability on the international market, the knowledge of the risks is an obligation. This thesis consists of two parts. The first part is theoretical and focuses first on the principle risks associated with the international business operations. Afterwards it presents the scope of the risk management and explains the main techniques of the risk assessment. The second part is practical and its goal is to illustrate the application of the techniques explained in the theoretical part on the environment of Zodiac Aerospace group.

Este trabalho propõe um método de análise de risco aplicada ao descarrilamento (incidente no qual a roda perde a sustentação provida pelo trilho, podendo ser causado por diversos aspectos como imperfeições na via, falhas no material rodante, obstáculos na via, entre outras que pode acarretar possíveis acidentes e perdas materiais e humanas) de forma a tornar mais seguro o transporte ferroviário, que atualmente não apresenta diminuição da taxa de ocorrência dos descarrilamentos, complementando assim as simulações computacionais e simulações dinâmicas que podem ser aplicadas ao estudo deste evento. Risco pode ser definido como o potencial de perda resultante da exposição a um perigo, sendo relacionado à probabilidade de ocorrência de um evento ou combinação de eventos acarretando em um perigo e a conseqüência deste perigo. Este conceito pode ser utilizado para investigar e avaliar as incertezas associadas com um evento. Já Confiabilidade pode ser definida como a probabilidade de um item executar a sua função sob condições pré-definidas de uso e manutenção por um período de tempo específico. Assim, considerando estes dois conceitos, será apresentada uma metodologia de análise de risco e confiabilidade para análise e discussão do descarrilamento, discorrendo sobre os possíveis parâmetros que podem causar este evento bem como propondo uma alternativa para avaliação da probabilidade de ocorrência do descarrilamento; desta forma permite guiar o gerenciamento da segurança quanto a este evento já que no Brasil não existe a figura da autoridade ferroviária, órgão máximo e responsável final pela regulamentação para a operação de um sistema ferroviário, que poderia determinar o processo que deve ser seguido para a garantia de segurança. Os objetos de estudo serão veículos ferroviários e conseqüentemente os elementos de interface com este tipo de veículo, como por exemplo, os elementos de via. / This research proposes a risk analysis method applied to derailment event (characterized by the wheel overlap on the rail, which can be caused by many aspects: rail imperfections, rolling stock failures, obstacles etc and which can cause accidents, material and life loss) to increase the safety level on railway transport that actually does not present decrease of derailment rate. This method also complements computational and dynamic simulations, which can be applied to this event. Risk can be defined as the potential loss due to a hazard exposure, also related with the probability of occurrence of an event or combinations of events leading to a hazard and the consequence of this hazard. This concept can be applied to investigate and to evaluate the uncertainties related with this event. Reliability can be defined as the probability of an item to perform its function under predefined use and maintenance conditions during a specific period of time. Thus, considering these two concepts, it will be presented a risk and reliability analysis to study the derailment event, discoursing about the possible parameters that can cause this event and proposing alternatives to evaluate the derailment occurrence probability in order to guide safety management since a railway authority does not exist in Brazil (body with the overall accountability to a regulator for operation a railway system, that could determines the process to be followed to assure safety levels). This research will cover railway vehicles and consequently the interface, for example, the railroad elements.

Desde o início de 1980, quando o governo brasileiro decidiu reduzir os investimentos para a industrialização de óleo de xisto, os recursos existentes de xisto não tem feito parte da agenda da política energética nacional e pouca atenção tem sido dirigida à indústrialização do xisto no Brasil. Contudo, as discussões atuais sobre o pico de produção de petróleo no mundo e o aumento da demanda tem despertado a atenção dos gestores de recursos energéticos de vários países para os recursos de hidrocarbonetos nãoconvencionais, como os de óleo de xisto, ainda pouco explorado no mundo. Assim sendo, este estudo teve por objetivo geral a avaliação da viabilidade econômica do desenvolvimento dos recursos de óleo de xisto do sul do Brasil. Este estudo descreve os recursos de xisto no mundo e no Brasil, os custos operacionais, os custos de investimento e a tecnologia brasileira para retortagem de superfície para xisto. Para a avaliação da viabilidade econômica foram extrapoladas as estimativas dos custos de um projeto para explotação de xisto com capacidade de produção de 50.000 bbl por dia, do ano de 1980 para o ano de 2009, corrigindo-os apenas com a taxa de inflação em seguida foram feitas simulações de Monte Carlo para determinar o valor presente líquido (VPL), taxa de retorno (TIR) e período de retorno para vários cenários. Os resultados, considerando as condições de contorno descritas na metodologia, mostram como resultado mais importante, que os projetos de xisto apresentam viabilidade econômica e riscos aceitáveis quando o preço do barril do petróleo é maior que US$ 60,00 e pneus inservíveis são pirolisados juntamente com o xisto. Outros cenários podem ser viáveis, porém os riscos envolvidos foram considerados elevados. Contudo, quando analisados os resultados obtidos com as perspectivas do pré sal, o resultado desta análise nos induz a concluir que, para o Brasil, o xisto não se coloca como a melhor alternativa energética e, portanto, não deve ser criada a industria do xisto no Brasil. / Since the early 1980s, when the Brazilian government has decided to reduce investments for oil shale industrialization, the oil shale resources had not been part of national energy policy agenda and little attention has been given to the oil shale industry in Brazil. However, the current discussions about the peak oil production in the world combined with the increasing demand drawing attention to the unconventional hydrocarbon resources like oil shale, which is poorly explored in the world at present so this study presents an evaluating of economic feasibility of developing oil shale resources in the south of Brazil. It describes the oil shale resources in the world and in Brazil, operational costs, capital costs and Brazilian oil shale technology. For the evaluation of economic viability, was estimated the costs for a oil shale production project with capacity of 50.000 bbl per day and the Monte Carlo simulations was used to determine risks for some scenes. For the evaluation of economic viability was used the net present value (VPL), rate of return (TIR) and payback as parameters for evaluation The results, considering the methodology, show as more important result that the oil shale projects have economic feseability and acceptable risks when the oil price are higher than US$ 60,00 and the tires are process together oil shale. Other scenarios may be feasible, but the risks were considered high. However, when analyzing the results whit the pre-salt perspectives, the result of this analysis induce us to conclude that, for Brazil, oil shale does not the best alternative to energy and therefore should not be created the oil shale industry in Brazil.