This research study had two distinct objectives. The first objective was to determine in which areas in South African banks the most severe operational risk losses are likely to occur (based on the Basel II seven loss event types and eight business lines). Severity was assessed based on single operational risk events that might have significant monetary values attached to them. The likely frequency of single operational risk events was also assessed. The investigation of the aforementioned research problem was explorative and quantitative of nature, as the researcher made extensive use of survey research in the form of a questionnaire to all registered banks. The second part of the research study’s objective was to assess the range of practices in collecting internal loss data for operational risk purposes as required by Basel II. This part was approached from a qualitative perspective, by benchmarking the research findings against the Basel II text, the researcher’s experience in risk management in banks, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s Sound Practices for the Management and Supervision of Operational Risk, and related literature. The literature review, including reference to certain surveys and studies, focuses on the main concepts of operational risk within banks that are pertinent to the research problem. The literature review also includes several references to the Basel II text and other relevant publications and papers issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The research results revealed that respondents in South African banks believed that ‘business disruption and system failures’ is the loss event type that is likely to result in the most severe single operational risk loss. ‘Trading and sales’ scored the same high average rating as ‘business disruption and system failures’ as the business line where the most severe single operational risk loss is likely to occur in South African banks. ‘External fraud’ and ‘execution, delivery and process management’ scored the highest average ratings as the loss event types where the most frequent operational risk losses are likely to occur. Respondents indicated that ‘retail banking’ is the business line where the most frequent single operational risk losses are likely to occur in South African banks. Based on the above-mentioned findings the researcher recommends that these high-risk areas be highlighted to the Bank Supervision Department of the South African Reserve Bank, the boards of directors and senior management of banks in order for them to strengthen banks’ internal controls. The researcher recommends the inclusion of near misses and opportunity cost in operational risk loss databases. Banks should at least capture the date of the discovery of an operational risk event as this represents acceptable practice among the majority of banks. Operational risk losses should be assigned to the multiple business activities in which it occurred on a pro-rata basis. All recoveries of operational risk losses should be processed separately, but associated with the original loss event. Replacement cost is seen as the most appropriate way to capture gross loss amounts for the damage to fixed assets. The researcher encourages the recording of overtime cost for fixing systems failures. Market risk losses due to operational risk events should be treated as market risk losses, while loan-related losses due to operational risk failures should be treated as credit risk losses by banks. The researcher’s view is that banks should set different thresholds for the collection of operational risk losses for its various business units based on each business unit’s operations and nature of business. Banks should, as a starting point, map operational risk events to the Basel II 8x7 matrix. Operational risk losses should be assessed by both legal entity and on a consolidated basis.

Magister Artium (Social Work) - MA(SW) / Although the practice of day labouring can be traced back for centuries, it has become a steadily growing global phenomenon and has significant implications for the populations and economies of both developed and developing countries. In South Africa, the day labour market serves as a catchment area for the fallout from a formal economy which is unable to provide employment to all South Africans. The day labourers are often excluded from the benefits of modern societies, such as access to social services, opportunities for employment, and adequate incomes. This study took the form of a qualitative case study and made use of an ethnographic research design. The qualitative data was collected through the conducting of semi-structured interviews, participant observation, and by making use of photovoice, while the quantitative data was generated through the administration of a questionnaire. The triangulation of several sets of data ensured the trustworthiness of the findings. The research population for the study comprised the day labourers who gathered at a particular hiring site in Cape Town. The qualitative data was analysed by means of thematic analysis, while the quantitative data was analysed by means of the SPSS software package to generate descriptive statistics, which were represented graphically in the findings in the form of pie charts and bar graphs. Although there were inherent limitations in the data which was obtained, it nevertheless provided valuable insights into the plight of day labourers in South Africa.

ABSTRACT Background Smoking is undoubtedly a major risk factor for morbidity, disability and premature death. Its use results in grave health and economic losses not only to the individual but also to the population and the world at large. Many surveys have been done in South Africa to estimate the prevalence of smoking. It is therefore imperative and expedient to have an overall impression of the prevalence rates over time. And also it is important to assess how subgroups affect the prevalence and trends in the national population. This will be of help in determining which subgroups have achieved reduction in smoking prevalence and which have not; evaluating the tobacco control policies in the country; and in designing specific interventions. This research was undertaken to determine the trends and patterns of smoking in the South African adult population Objectives The objectives for this study were: Regarding the South African adult population during 1995 – 1998, to: 1. Compute the prevalence of smoking and assess the trends of smoking prevalence. 2. Assess the patterns and trends of smoking prevalence in subgroups by sex, age, marital status, race, locality (urban or rural), education and province. 3. Identify factors in the population that may account for patterns and trends in smoking prevalence over time 4. Make recommendations regarding the public health implications of the findingsMethods This was an analytical study involving secondary analysis of existing datasets from four South African representative national surveys. From 11 surveys, which measured smoking in the South African population, four surveys were selected using some inclusion and exclusion criteria. The population of interest was the South Africa adult population (18 – 49), so variables of interest (outcome variable was current smokers) for this group were extracted. Prevalence (frequency) rates estimation of smoking in the national population and in subgroups were then estimated. Unadjusted odds ratios and adjusted odds ratios were computed by bi-variate cross tabulation and multivariate logistic regression respectively. Time-trend analyses (Maentel Haenszel chi-squared test) were computed by logistic regression for trend in proportions Results From 1995 to 1997 about 1/3 of the adult South African population were smokers, but that dropped significantly to about ¼ in 1998. For the period however, there was no significant trend. The prevalence of smoking varied with, and was largely depended on population subgroup; while it was as high as 63.9% among Coloured males, 62.3% among Coloured females, 53.7 % among all males, 52.7% among rural males, it was as low as 11.4% among all females, 6.8% among rural females, 10.83% among Indian females and 5.06% among Black females. The only significant trends was an increasing smoking prevalence among Blacks, Coloured men, people with tertiary education, Free State and Gauteng provinces, age group 35 – 44; urban men and a decreasing smoking prevalence in all women, urban women and black women, age group 18 – 24 and the Eastern Cape, Kwazulu-Natal, Northen Cape and Mpumalanga provinces. Sex, race, age, and education were the major risk factors for smoking in the South African adult population. Locality (rural/urban) though had different smoking rate was not a risk factor for smoking. Marital status was neither a determinant nor risk factor for smoking. Discussion and Conclusion The prevalence of smoking in the South African adult population is very high and did not achieve any significant trend between 1995 and 1998. However the significant drop from 1997 to 1998 probably means that smoking prevalence in the national population may have started declining; therefore, more monitoring is needed to ascertain this. This high prevalence of smoking in the South African population, which may have been for years, may predict a high burden of chronic smoking-related diseases in the near future. The patterns of smoking analyses reveal that smoking in the South African adult population is determined by a complex interplay of different factors.

Abstract available through American Journal of Epidemiology.

This thesis focuses on measuring extreme risks in insurance business. We mainly use extreme value theory to develop asymptotics for risk measures. We also study the characterization of upper comonotonicity for multiple extreme risks. Firstly, we conduct asymptotics for the Haezendonck--Goovaerts (HG) risk measure of extreme risks at high confidence levels, which serves as an alternative way to statistical simulations. We split the study of this problem into two steps. In the first step, we concentrate on the HG risk measure with a power Young function, which yields certain explicitness. Then we derive asymptotics for a risk variable with a distribution function that belongs to one of the three max-domains of attraction separately. We extend our asymptotic study to the HG risk measure with a general Young function in the second step. We study this problem using different approaches and overcome a lot of technical difficulties. The risk variable is assumed to follow a distribution function that belongs to the max-domain of attraction of the generalized extreme value distribution and we show a unified proof for all three max-domains of attraction. Secondly, we study the first- and second-order asymptotics for the tail distortion risk measure of extreme risks. Similarly as in the first part, we develop the first-order asymptotics for the tail distortion risk measure of a risk variable that follows a distribution function belonging to the max-domain of attraction of the generalized extreme value distribution. In order to improve the accuracy of the first-order asymptotics, we further develop the second-order asymptotics for the tail distortion risk measure. Numerical examples are carried out to show the accuracy of both asymptotics and the great improvements of the second-order asymptotics. Lastly, we characterize the upper comonotonicity via tail convex order. For any given marginal distributions, a maximal random vector with respect to tail convex order is proved to be upper comonotonic under suitable conditions. As an application, we consider the computation of the HG risk measure of the sum of upper comonotonic random variables with exponential marginal distributions. The methodology developed in this thesis is expected to work with the same efficiency for generalized quantiles (such as expectile, Lp-quantiles, ML-quantiles and Orlicz quantiles), quantile based risk measures or risk measures which focus on the tail areas, and also work well on capital allocation problems.

Doctor of Philosophy / Water quality guidelines (WQGs) present concentrations of contaminants that are designed to be protective of aquatic ecosystems. In Australia, guidance for assessment of water quality is provided by the ANZECC and ARMCANZ (2000) Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality. WQGs are generally provided for individual contaminants, not complex mixtures of chemicals, where interaction between contaminants may occur. Complex mixtures of contaminants are however, more commonly found in the environment than singular chemicals. The likelihood and consequences of adverse effects occurring in aquatic ecosystems resulting from contaminants are generally assessed using an ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework. Ecological risk assessment is often a tiered approach, whereby risks identified in early stages, using conservative assumptions, prompt further detailed and more realistic assessment in higher tiers. The objectives of this study were: to assess and investigate the toxicity of the mixture of volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons (VCHs) in groundwater to indigenous marine organisms; to present a ‘best practice’ ecological risk assessment of the discharge of contaminated groundwater to an estuarine embayment and to develop techniques to quantify the environmental risk; and to evaluate the existing ANZECC and ARMCANZ (2000) WQGs for VCHs and to derive new WQGs, where appropriate. Previous investigations at a chemical manufacturing facility in Botany, Sydney, identified several plumes of groundwater contamination with VCHs. Contaminated groundwater containing a complex mixture of VCHs was identified as discharging, via a series of stormwater drains, to surface water in nearby Penrhyn Estuary, an adjacent small intertidal embayment on the northern margin of Botany Bay. A screening level ecological hazard assessment was undertaken using the hazard quotient (HQ) approach, whereby contaminant concentrations measured in the environment were screened against published trigger values (TVs) presented in ANZECC and ARMCANZ (2000). Existing TVs were available for 9 of the 14 VCHs present in surface water in the estuary and new TVs were derived for the remaining 5 VCHs. A greater hazard was identified in the estuary at low tide than high tide or when VCH concentrations from both high and low tides were assessed together. A greater hazard was also identified in the estuary when the toxicity of the mixture was assessed, rather than the toxicity of individual contaminants. The screening level hazard assessment also identified several limitations, including: the low reliability of the TVs for VCHs provided in ANZECC and ARMCANZ (2000); the limited applicability of the TVs to a complex mixture of 14 potentially interacting contaminants; the use of deterministic measures for each of the exposure and toxicity profiles in the HQ method and the associated lack of elements of probability to assess ‘risk’. Subsequent studies were undertaken to address these identified shortcomings of the screening level hazard assessment as described in the following chapters. A toxicity testing methodology was adapted and evaluated for suitability in preventing loss of VCHs from test solutions and also for testing with 6 indigenous marine organisms, including: oyster (Saccostrea commercialis) and sea urchin larvae (Heliocidaris tuberculata); a benthic alga (Nitzschia closterium); an amphipod (Allorchestes compressa); a larval fish (Macquaria novemaculeata); and a polychaete worm (Diopatra dentata). The study evaluated possible VCH loss from 44 mL vials for small organisms (H.tuberculata, S.commercialis and N.closterium) and 1 L jars for larger organisms (M.novemaculeata, A.compressa and D.dentata). Vials were effective in preventing loss of VCHs, however, an average 46% of VCHs were lost from jars, attributable to the headspace provided in the vessels. Test jars were deemed suitable for use with the organisms as test conditions, i.e. dissolved oxygen content and pH, were maintained, however, variability in test organism survival was identified, with some control tests failing to meet all acceptance criteria. Direct toxicity assessment (DTA) of groundwater contaminated with VCHs was undertaken using 5 indigenous marine organisms and site-specific species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) and TVs were derived for the complex mixture of VCHs for application to surface water in Penrhyn Estuary. Test organisms included A.compressa, H.tuberculata, S.commercialis, D.dentata and N.closterium. The SSD was derived using NOEC data in accordance with procedures presented in ANZECC and ARMCANZ (2000) for deriving WQGs. The site-specific SSD adopted was a log-normal distribution, using an acute to chronic ratio (ACR) of 5, with a 95% TV of 838 μg/L total VCHs. A number of additional scenarios were undertaken to evaluate the effect of including different ACRs (i.e. 5 or 10), inclusion of larval development tests as either acute or chronic tests and choice of SSD distribution (i.e. log-normal, Burr Type III and Pareto). TVs for the scenarios modelled varied from 67 μg/L to 954 μg/L total VCHs. A site-specific, quantitative ERA was undertaken of the surface water contaminated with VCHs in Penrhyn Estuary. The risk assessment included probabilistic elements for toxicity (i.e. the site-specific SSD) and exposure (i.e. a cumulative distribution function of monitoring data for VCHs in surface waters in the estuary). The joint probability curve (JPC) methodology was used to derive quantitative estimates of ecological risk (δ) and the type of exposure in the source areas in surface water drains entering the estuary, i.e. Springvale and Floodvale Drains, Springvale and Floodvale Tributaries and the Inner and Outer Estuary. The risk of possible adverse effects and likely adverse effects were each assessed using SSDs derived from NOEC and EC50 data, respectively. Estimates of risk (δ) of possible adverse effects (i.e. based on NOEC data) varied from a maximum of 85% in the Springvale Drain source area to <1% in the outer estuary and estimates of likely adverse effects (i.e. based on EC50 data) varied from 78% to 0%. The ERA represents a ‘best practice’ ecological risk assessment of contamination of an estuary using site-specific probabilistic elements for toxicity and exposure assessments. The VCHs identified in surface water in Penrhyn Estuary are additive in toxicity and act under the narcotic pathway, inhibiting cellular processes through interference with membrane integrity. Lethal toxicity to 50% of organisms (i.e. LC50) is typically reported at the internal lethal concentration (ILC) or critical body residue (CBR) of ~2.5 mmol/kg wet weight or within the range of 1 to 10 mmol/kg wet weight. To evaluate the sensitivity of the test organisms to VCHs and to determine if toxicity in the DTA was due to VCHs, the internal residue for 6 test organisms was calculated for the mixture of VCHs in groundwater and toxicity testing with seawater spiked individually 2 VCHs, chloroform and 1,2-dichloroethane. Calculated residues (at LC50/EC50) were typically between 1 and 10 mmol/kg, with the exception of the algal and sea urchin toxicity tests, which were considerably lower than the expected minimum. Mean internal residues for the groundwater, chloroform and 1,2-dichloroethane were 0.88 mmol/kg, 2.84 mmol/kg and 2.32 mmol/kg, respectively, i.e. close to the predicted value of ~2.5 mmol/kg, indicating that the organisms were suitably sensitive to VCHs. There was no significant difference (P>0.05) between the mean residues of each of the three treatments and the study concluded that the additive toxicity of the VCHs in groundwater was sufficient to account for the observed toxicity (i.e. VCHs caused the toxicity in the DTA undertaken). Evaluation of the existing low reliability ANZECC and ARMCANZ (2000) TVs for chloroform and 1,2-dichloroethane was undertaken to determine if these guidelines were protective of indigenous marine organisms. NOECs, derived from toxicity testing of 1,2- dichloroethane and chloroform with 6 indigenous marine organisms, were screened against the existing low reliability TVs. The TVs for 1,2-dichloroethane and chloroform were protective of 4 of the 6 species tested (A.compressa, D.dentata, S.commercialis and M.novemaculeata), however, the TVs were not protective of the alga (N.closterium) or the sea urchin larvae (H.tuberculata). As the existing TVs were not considered to be adequately protective, SSDs were derived using the NOEC data generated from the testing in accordance with procedures outlined in ANZECC and ARMCANZ (2000). Moderate reliability TVs of 3 μg/L and 165 μg/L were derived for chloroform and 1,2- dichloroethane, respectively, i.e. considerably lower than the existing TVs of 770 μg/L and 1900 μg/L. Differences between the existing and newly derived TVs were considered to result from the sensitive endpoints selected (i.e. growth and larval development rather than survival) and from variability inherent when deriving SSDs using a small number of test species. Ongoing groundwater monitoring indicated that the plumes of VCHs in groundwater, identified in the 1990s, were continuing to migrate towards Botany Bay. Discharge of these groundwater plumes into Botany Bay would result in significant increases in the concentrations of VCHs in the receiving environment and would likely lead to significant environmental impacts. In 2006, a groundwater remediation system was commissioned to prevent the discharge of groundwater containing VCHs into Penrhyn Estuary and Botany Bay. The success of the project had only been measured according to chemical and engineering objectives. Assessment of changes in ecological risk is vital to the success of ERA and central to the ERA management framework. Whereas monitoring of chemical concentrations provides qualitative information that risk should decrease, it cannot quantify the reduction in ecological risk. To assess the ecological risk following implementation of the groundwater treatment system, the risk assessment was revised using surface water monitoring data collected during 2007 and 2008. The ERA indicated that, following remediation of the groundwater, ecological risk in Penrhyn Estuary reduced from a maximum of 35% prior to remediation, to a maximum of only 1.3% after remediation. Using the same methodology applied in the initial risk assessment, the success of the groundwater remediation was measured in terms of ecological risk, rather than engineering or chemical measures of success. Prior to the present investigation, existing techniques for assessing ecological risk of VCH contamination in aquatic ecosystems were inadequate to characterise ecological risk. The current study demonstrated that through monitoring of surface water at the site and DTA using indigenous marine organisms, ecological risk can be assessed using site-specific, quantitative techniques for a complex mixture of VCHs in groundwater. The present investigation also identified that existing ANZECC and ARMCANZ (2000) low reliability TVs were less protective of indigenous test organisms than previously thought and therefore, new TVs were derived in the current work. The present study showed that revision of the risk assessment as conditions change is crucial to the success of the ecological risk management framework.

In the past, most researchers found investors tend to be overconfident when making investment decisions. This paper, under the assumption that investors have the disposition of overconfidence, tries to examine whether investors will display different degrees of overconfidence when facing different situations. Results have been found investors will have more confidence in processing the information the market has revealed to make investments when facing companies with high firm-specific risks. Therefore, firm-specific risks will influence overconfident investors¡¦ investment decisions. Furthermore, this paper tries to further divide companies under consideration into three groups according to their market share to discuss overconfident investors¡¦ behavior. Finally, this paper uses some quantitative variables to proxy public and private information to test whether investors in Taiwan tend to overreact to private information than to public information. The results have proven that investors¡¦ overreaction to private information in Taiwan comply with other behaviors of investors in other countries.

The cash dividend payout ratio in Taiwan had declined slowly in past years, but it suddenly became higher and higher since 1998. The phenomenon gave me the motivation to try to find the reason why the trend of cash dividend payout ratio changed the direction. I first test the relationship between the characters of firms and their cash dividend payout ratios. The results declared that the market-to-book ratio, earning ability and firm size significantly influences the cash dividend payout ratio. Then I tried to test the catering theory to recognize if the change of cash dividend payout ratio trend can attribute to managers¡¦ desire to cater the demand of investors and found catering theory seems capable in explaining the phenomenon. But Hoberg and Prabhala (2007) indicated that if we take the risks into account, the catering theory can not sufficiently explain the change of the trend of cash dividend payout ratio. So I took Tax Integration and the risks which calculated by the methods of Fama and French (2003) into account to prove their perspectives. At last, the results revealed that the influence of catering were not very strong if we consider the risks of firms, but the influence of risks and Tax Integration has significantly great influences.

Alliance has become a necessary part of firms¡¦ strategy due to fast-paced diffusion of technologies, rising costs and protectionism. While the forms of strategy alliances evolve from simple contracts into multiple cooperation modes, factors needed to be considered are also gaining amount. Different kinds of strategy alliances possess different kinds of pros and cons, and will have effect on integration of resources and techniques. This research aims at analyzing whether the property of knowledge, firms¡¦ capacity and partner relations had effect on the selection of the strategy alliance modes. This study also formed a questionnaire survey which empirically tested the hypotheses set up in the study with data from public offering electronic firms. The results are indicating that contractual alliances are more likely to be formed when the absorptive capacity and risks are high, which are supported by numerous papers. The reason is that the strategy alliance is a channel of knowledge transferring, and higher the potential of gaining knowledge, then easier the process would be ¡V no resource-committing equity alliances are needed. The risk part is talking similar story: while risks are high, firms tend to serve contract as a tool of controlling loses. The level of implicit and complexity of knowledge are also positively related with the preference of committing equity alliances. The reason is that these kinds of alliances would serve better for firms to cooperate with each others and to transfer complex and tacit knowledge easier

Most everybody is ambitious about their own careers. Most of us aspire to be promoted to positions with greater responsibilities and benefits and have a clear sense of what we mean by a "successful career." Politicians are no different, and there is no apparent reason why they should be. However, unlike what happens in other occupations, politicians are forced periodically---i.e., at the end of each term they serve---to make a decision about what to do with their careers. This decision is made under the uncertainty about their ability to continue their careers according to their plans. The possibility of electoral defeat spares no one in spite of all that politicians do to avoid being voted out of office. Thus, at the end of each term, politicians must ponder what they want to do with their careers or where they want to go next. Politicians inform their decisions with their beliefs about their performance in office---or their performance as challengers---and their assessments of the difficulty of winning office in the following election. This raises the question about why some politicians decide to stay in office. Concretely, why do some politicians decide to get reelected while others seek election in "higher" or even "lower" offices? And also, why are some politicians more successful in having lasting careers? I focus on the career decisions that politicians make routinely and in the duration of their careers by considering individual and district factors that explain why politicians decide to run for particular offices and the length of their tenures.