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中國實行人民幣國際化後之均衡匯率及 匯率形成機制探討 / Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Regime of RMB after China Implemented RMB Internationalization朱虹潔 Unknown Date (has links)
˼˶為因應全球金融海嘯及歐債危機之匯兌風險、歐美先進國家採行量化寬鬆貨幣政策所產生之外溢成本,以及經濟實力相對提升,2009年中國開始推動人民幣國際化。目前人民幣已成為全球第五大支付貨幣,且國際貨幣基金會(International Monetary Fund)在2015年10月31日宣布將人民幣納入特別提款權籃子(Special Drawing Right),人民幣國際化進程十分迅速。
長期以來,人民幣被國際間普遍認為是低估的,本文使用購買力平價模型(Purchasing Power Parity)及有效匯率模型(Effective Exchange Rate)估算人民幣高低估程度,分析結果顯示人民幣匯率低估程度已有大幅改善,逐漸接近均衡匯率(Equilibrium Exchange Rate)。
另外,人民幣匯率形成機制也是國際間關注的議題,在2010年中國重啟人民幣匯改後,逐步放寬人民幣兌美元單邊波幅,且對外宣稱逐步與美元脫鉤,實行釘住一籃子貨幣的匯率形成機制。本文用中國人民銀行所發佈的CFETS人民幣匯率指數所公布的組成成分,將13種貨幣變動率對人民幣做回歸分析,推論中國目前採取『可調整的釘住一籃子』的匯率形成機制。若中國欲將人民幣推廣成為國際貨幣,勢必需推動匯率自由化,並降低人為操弄空間。 / In response to exchange rate risks to the global financial crisis and European debt crisis, developed countries adopt quantitative easing monetary policy arising from the spillover costs, and the enhancing of the economic strength, in 2009, China began to implement the internationalization of the RMB. The RMB has become the world's sixth-largest currency of payment. Besides, IMF (International Monetary Fund) announced the Yuan to be included in the SDR basket (Special Drawing Right) on October 31, 2015, RMB internationalization process is very fast.
For a long time, the Yuan’s value is regarded underestimated. This paper uses the PPP model (Purchasing Power Parity) and Effective Exchange Rate model to estimate the degree of undervaluation of Yuan. The analysis shows that the degree of undervaluation has been greatly improved, and gradually approaching the equilibrium exchange rate.
In addition, the RMB exchange rate regime is also a very important issue. After China restarted the RMB exchange rate reform in 2010, the volatility limitation of Yuan against the US dollar is gradually relaxed. China also announced that the exchange rate regime decoupled the US dollar peg to a basket of currencies. This paper uses CFETS RMB exchange rate index’s composition of the 13 kinds of currency rate on a regression analysis to the Yuan. We find out that China’s exchange rate regime is "adjustable peg to a basket". If China wants the Yuan to be an international currency, the exchange rate must be liberalized and the space of manipulation must be minimized.
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人民幣離岸市場的發展前景: 以香港與台灣為個案分析 / The development prospects of RMB offshore markets: Hong Kong and Taiwan as a case study林宜賢 Unknown Date (has links)
離岸金融市場,早期主要是以非居民為對象提供非本幣交易金融服務的國際金融市場。近幾十年來,國際金融市場規模快速成長,同時國際金融功能也不斷擴大,而離岸市場也隨著它的功能不斷調整、擴充,發展出了許多不同的面貌。許多國際貨幣如美元、日圓、歐元也在倫敦、東京、紐約、香港、新加坡這些國際金融城市頻繁且大量的交易。
人民幣目前還不是主要國際貨幣,國際化程度不若這些國際貨幣高,在境外使用也較主要國際貨幣來的少,較具規模的人民幣離岸市場從2010年後在香港漸具雛型。由於中國近年來一系列推動人民幣向境外流動的政策,讓人民幣在全球貨幣的地位逐漸提升,而隨著人民幣在境外流動數量的增加,使得近年來人民幣離岸市場引起國際金融城市的關注,有些地區也加入爭取發展人民幣離岸市場的行列。
由於香港不但是第一個發展人民幣離岸市場的案例,在現今的發展規模上也是最大的境外人民幣中心,因此本研究透過香港發展的條件及路徑,從既有文獻的檢閱、數據的蒐集,並結合對相關人士的訪談,整理歸納國際貨幣離岸市場的發展經驗與香港發展人民幣離岸市場的優劣條件,希望台灣在開放人民幣業務之後,能借鏡當初其他國際貨幣離岸市場與香港發展的一些經驗來做為台灣發展的參考,並結合自身擁有的條件,發揮自身優勢,改善原有劣勢,把握面臨的機會,積極地克服外在的威脅。 / In the early period, offshore financial markets provided non-local currency transaction services to non- residents. In recent decades, as the international financial market grows and expands rapidly, the offshore market and its function also constantly adjust, expand, and develop many different aspects.Many international currencies such as the dollar, the yen, and the euro are also hugely demanded and used in those international financial centers such as London, Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
RMB is still not a major international currency nowadays. Its degree of internationalization and frequency of usage outside China are not high as other international currencies, but Hong Kong already develops as an offshore financial market after 2010. Due to China government’s series policies to promote the internationalization of RMB, the international position of RMB is rising. As RMB’s offshore flow increases rapidly, it gets the attention of many international financial cities, and some regions even join to develop as RMB offshore financial markets.
Since Hong Kong is the first offshore financial market and the biggest offshore center of RMB, this study examines its development through reviewing the existing literature, analyzing data, and combining the interviews of stakeholders to sum up the merits of Hong Kong and other international monetary markets. We hope that after opening RMB’s business, Taiwan can actively learn from Hong Kong and these markets, promotes our strengths, improve the weaknesses, seize the opportunities, and overcome external threats.
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