The fine-scale structure of global (30N-30S) tropical rainfall is characterised using 13 years (1998-2010) of 3-hourly and daily, 0.25-degree Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall product. At the outset, the dominant timescales present in rainfall are identified. Specifically, the Fourier spectrum (in time) is estimated in two ways (a) spectrum of spatially averaged (SoSA) rainfall; and (b) spatial average of the spectrum (SAoS) of rainfall at each grid point. This procedure is applied on rainfall at the 3-hourly and daily temporal resolutions. Both estimates of the spectrum show the presence of a very strong seasonal cycle. But, at subseasonal timescales, the two methods of estimating spectrum show a marked difference in daily rainfall. Specifically, with SoSA the variability peaks at a subseasonal timescale of around 5 days, with a possible secondary peak around 30-40 days (mostly in the southern tropics). With SAoS, the variability is distributed across a range of timescales, from 2 days to 90 days. However, with finer resolution (3-hourly) observations, it is seen that (besides the seasonal cycle) both methods agree and yield a dominant diurnal scale. Along with other subseasonal scales, the contribution and geographical distribution of diurnal scale variability is estimated and shown to be highly significant. Given its large contribution to the variability of tropical rainfall, the diurnal cycle is extracted by means of a Fourier-based filtering and analysed. The diurnal rainfall anomaly is constructed by eliminating all timescales larger than 1 day. Following this, taking care to avoid spurious peaks associated with Gibbs oscillations, the time of day (called the peak octet) when the diurnal anomaly is largest is identified. The peak octet is estimated for each location in the global tropics. This is repeated for 13 years, and the resulting mode of the time of maximum rainfall is established. It is seen that (i) most land regions receive rainfall during the late afternoon/early evening hours; (ii) rainfall over open oceans lack a dominant diurnal signature with a possible combination of early morning and afternoon showers; (iii) coastal regions show a clear south/southwest propagation in the mode of the peak octet of rainfall. In addition to being a comprehensive documentation of the diurnal cycle at very fine scales, the results serve as a critical test for the validation of theoretical and numerical models of global tropical rainfall.

MESHWR / Department of Hydrology and Water Resources / This study dealt with the influence of climate variability on flood and drought cycles and implications on rainy season characteristics in Luvuvhu River Catchment (LRC) in Limpopo of South Africa. Extreme weather events resulting in hazards such as floods and droughts are becoming more frequent due to climate change. Extreme events affect rainy season characteristics and hence have an influence on water availability and agricultural production. Annual temperature was obtained from Water Research Commission for stations 0723485W, 0766628W and 0766898W from 1950-2013 were used to show/or confirm if there is climate variability in LRC. Daily rainfall data was obtained from SAWS for stations 0766596 9, 0766563 1, 0723485 6 and 0766715 5 were used to detect climate variability and determine the onset, duration and cessation of the rainy season. Streamflow data obtained from the Department of Water and Sanitation for stations A9H004, A9H012, and A9H001 for at least a period of 30 years for each station were used for climate variability detection and determination of flood and drought cycles. Influence of climate variability on floods and droughts and rainy season characteristic were determined in the area of study. Trends were evaluated for temperature, rainfall and streamflow data in the area of study using Mann Kendall (MK) and linear regression (LR) methods. MK and LR detected positive trends for temperature (maximum and minimum) and streamflow stations. MK and LR results of rainfall stations showed increasing trends for stations 0766596 9, and 0766563 1 whereas stations 0723485 6 and 0766715 5 showed decreasing trends. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to determine floods and droughts cycles. SPI results have been classified either as moderately, severely and extremely dry or, moderately, very and extremely wet. This SPI analysis provides more details of dominance of distinctive dry or wet conditions for a rainy season at a particular station. Mean onset of rainfall varied from day 255 to 297, with 0766715 5 showing the earliest onset compared to the rest of the stations. Cessation of rainfall for most of the hydrological years was higher than the mean days of 88, 83 and 86 days in 0766596 9, 0766563 1 and 0723485 6 stations. Mean duration of rainfall varied from 102 to 128, with station 0766715 5 showing shortest duration of rainfall. The results of the study showed that the mean onset, duration and cessation were comparable for all stations except 0766715 5 which had lower values. The study also found that climate variability greatly affects onset, duration and cessation of rainfall during dry years. This led to late onset, early cessation and relatively short duration of the rainfall season. Communities within the catchment must be educated to practice activities such as conservation of indigenous plants, reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

MRDV / Institute for Rural Development / This study originated from the realisation that non-conventional crops such as Bambara nuts (Vigna subterranea) were becoming increasingly important in addressing food insecurity and malnutrition in the smallholder farming sector of countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, some of the smallholder crop farmers were observed to be continuing to rely on indigenous techniques to forecast rainfall and adapt agricultural activities in response to climate variability. However, it was not clear how climate change influenced the productivity of V. subterranea. Nor were the indigenous approaches that farmers used to forecast rainfall on this phenomenon well understood. Thus, a study was carried out to identify and document indigenous approaches that smallholder farmers used to forecast rainfall and adaptation practices relating to V. subterranea. The study was conducted in Xigalo and Lambani villages located in Collins Chabane Local Municipality of Vhembe District in Limpopo Province. The villages served as case study areas that helped to compare the native approaches that the Va-Tsonga and Vha-Venda used to forecast rainfall in the course of producing V. subterranea. A multi-case study research design, which was exploratory in nature was adopted. Convenience and snowball sampling techniques were used to identify and select respondents. The triangulation of participatory methods, techniques and tools guided the collection of qualitative data. Key informant interviews, learning circles, photovoice, one-on-one interviews and narrative inquiry techniques were applied during data collection. Smallholder farmers and the elderly members of communities were the respondents. Nine key informants in Xigalo and Lambani villages were interviewed. One retired and two currently serving government extension officers were also interviewed. Separate learning circles comprising mainly elderly men and women were also organised. Each learning circle was made up of 7-10 respondents. Atlas.ti version 7.5.7 software was used to analyse the qualitative data following the thematic content analysis approach. It was observed that the respondents were aware of climate variability events that affected V. subterranea. Some of the events were shifts in rainfall patterns, heavy rainfall, extreme temperatures, scarcity of summer rainfall, the disappearance of lunar signs and the seasonal cycle variations. Eighteen types of phenological signs used to predict rainfall were identified. The most common signs included the Milky Way Galaxy of stars, musical sounds of birds and frogs, moon shapes, cumulus and cumulonimbus cloud types. A close relationship between conservation of V. subterranea and adaptation strategies was said to exist. It was evident that most commonly used conservation strategies were rainmaking ceremonies, planting after the summer rains, hoeing weeds, soaking seeds before planting, hilling or earthing up around the base of the V. subterranea plant and storing the legumes in traditional vessels and sacks. The need for integrating western scientific knowledge with native forecasts to inform the production of V. subterranea was uncovered. In addition to this, the needs of Tsonga and Venda communities should inform local policy interventions. Lastly, adaptation strategies that address food insecurity with V. subterranea being part of the agro-ecosystem deserve attention in scientific investigation and policymaking. / NRF