This study examines intertemporal variation in the associations of accounting data with subsequent firm returns. A number of accounting research studies pool data indiscriminately across time and firms. Previous research has disclosed the nature and effects of cross-sectional dependencies in pooled data. On the other hand, intertemporal dependencies associated with real macroeconomic phenomena have not been widely researched. The objective of this study was to provide evidence as to whether accounting data's associations with subsequent firm returns systematically vary across recession-associated and expansion-associated valuation change periods. Eighty-two accounting ratios were examined for evidence of systematic variation in association across business cycle-associated valuation events. Analyses are conducted, using both simple and multiple regression. Business cycle effects on the predictive accuracy of regression models were also examined. / Ph. D.

Rice grows in saturated soil water condition and its requirement for water is highest amongst other cereal crops. In India, the southwest monsoon wind regime brings rainfall that provides a favourable environment for rice cultivation. Thus, there is significant dependency ofrice production on the southwest monsoon rainfall. Being a crop that grows across diverse climatic regions in India ranging from the humid to semi-arid, it offers possibility to explore therelationship between stable isotopic compositions in the grain organic matter with the climaticfactors relevant for its growth. In this thesis, we measured the isotopic compositions of oxygen, hydrogen and carbon of several rice genotypes that were cultivated during the southwest monsoon in diverse climatic regions across the Indian landmass. These isotopic values were then compared with the seasonalaverage values of climate factors such as relative humidity and temperature. Together with thiswe also studied the dependency of the oxygen isotope composition of the grain OM (δ18OOM) onthat of the source water (δ18OSW). Upon removal of δ18OSW effect from δ18OOM, we obtained astrong and significant relationship between the 18O enrichment in grain organic matter (definedas 18OOM) with relative humidity. The gradient recorded was 0.45‰ shift in 18OOM with 1%change in the relative humidity level. This relationship can potentially be used to estimate thepast variations in relative humidity (and by extension, can provide a measure of monsoon rainfallvariations). We further validated this relationship based on experiments carried out in aglasshouse where all the physical factors were well-monitored. Together with this, carbonisotopic composition measured in the rice grain organic matter were used to infer the water useefficiency of rice grown in different climatic settings. The stable isotope approach was furtherimplemented for studying the archaeological rice grains recovered from archaeological sites. Analysis of carbon isotopic composition of archaeological rice grains from seven archaeologicalsites (Balu, Kanmer, Ojiyana, Lahuradewa, JognaKhera, Hulas and Kunal), belonging to theHarappan civilization and other contemporary cultures provided a new suit of data on quantitativeestimate of the hydroclimatic condition (specifically relative humidity) and water availabilityduring the existence of this civilization.

Rice grows in saturated soil water condition and its requirement for water is highest amongst other cereal crops. In India, the southwest monsoon wind regime brings rainfall that provides a favourable environment for rice cultivation. Thus, there is significant dependency ofrice production on the southwest monsoon rainfall. Being a crop that grows across diverse climatic regions in India ranging from the humid to semi-arid, it offers possibility to explore therelationship between stable isotopic compositions in the grain organic matter with the climaticfactors relevant for its growth. In this thesis, we measured the isotopic compositions of oxygen, hydrogen and carbon of several rice genotypes that were cultivated during the southwest monsoon in diverse climatic regions across the Indian landmass. These isotopic values were then compared with the seasonalaverage values of climate factors such as relative humidity and temperature. Together with thiswe also studied the dependency of the oxygen isotope composition of the grain OM (δ18OOM) onthat of the source water (δ18OSW). Upon removal of δ18OSW effect from δ18OOM, we obtained astrong and significant relationship between the 18O enrichment in grain organic matter (definedas 18OOM) with relative humidity. The gradient recorded was 0.45‰ shift in 18OOM with 1%change in the relative humidity level. This relationship can potentially be used to estimate thepast variations in relative humidity (and by extension, can provide a measure of monsoon rainfallvariations). We further validated this relationship based on experiments carried out in aglasshouse where all the physical factors were well-monitored. Together with this, carbonisotopic composition measured in the rice grain organic matter were used to infer the water useefficiency of rice grown in different climatic settings. The stable isotope approach was furtherimplemented for studying the archaeological rice grains recovered from archaeological sites. Analysis of carbon isotopic composition of archaeological rice grains from seven archaeologicalsites (Balu, Kanmer, Ojiyana, Lahuradewa, JognaKhera, Hulas and Kunal), belonging to theHarappan civilization and other contemporary cultures provided a new suit of data on quantitativeestimate of the hydroclimatic condition (specifically relative humidity) and water availabilityduring the existence of this civilization

Rice grows in saturated soil water condition and its requirement for water is highest amongst other cereal crops. In India, the southwest monsoon wind regime brings rainfall that provides a favourable environment for rice cultivation. Thus, there is significant dependency ofrice production on the southwest monsoon rainfall. Being a crop that grows across diverse climatic regions in India ranging from the humid to semi-arid, it offers possibility to explore therelationship between stable isotopic compositions in the grain organic matter with the climaticfactors relevant for its growth. In this thesis, we measured the isotopic compositions of oxygen, hydrogen and carbon of several rice genotypes that were cultivated during the southwest monsoon in diverse climatic regions across the Indian landmass. These isotopic values were then compared with the seasonalaverage values of climate factors such as relative humidity and temperature. Together with thiswe also studied the dependency of the oxygen isotope composition of the grain OM (δ18OOM) onthat of the source water (δ18OSW). Upon removal of δ18OSW effect from δ18OOM, we obtained astrong and significant relationship between the 18O enrichment in grain organic matter (definedas 18OOM) with relative humidity. The gradient recorded was 0.45‰ shift in 18OOM with 1%change in the relative humidity level. This relationship can potentially be used to estimate thepast variations in relative humidity (and by extension, can provide a measure of monsoon rainfallvariations). We further validated this relationship based on experiments carried out in aglasshouse where all the physical factors were well-monitored. Together with this, carbonisotopic composition measured in the rice grain organic matter were used to infer the water useefficiency of rice grown in different climatic settings. The stable isotope approach was furtherimplemented for studying the archaeological rice grains recovered from archaeological sites. Analysis of carbon isotopic composition of archaeological rice grains from seven archaeologicalsites (Balu, Kanmer, Ojiyana, Lahuradewa, JognaKhera, Hulas and Kunal), belonging to theHarappan civilization and other contemporary cultures provided a new suit of data on quantitativeestimate of the hydroclimatic condition (specifically relative humidity) and water availabilityduring the existence of this civilization.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Academics, analysts and investors have always been intrigued by, and have always sought to identify with certainty, factors that determine investment returns and share price movements. In 1953 Maurice Kendall, following on the work of Louis Bachelier, made the revelation that share price movements followed a random pattern, i.e. they could not be predicted with certainty. Through continual research, two schools of thought emerged - fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamentalists' perspective is that through thorough due diligence analysis of current and historical data, one will be able to identify good investment prospects.The latter stipulates that future price movements can be predicted from previous price movements, i.e. historical patterns replicate themselves over time. The random walk theory suggested by Kendall was followed by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as developed and refined by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Black (1972). The CAPMrecognised risk (beta) as the key explanatory variable of returns. The CAPMremains the backbone of modern financial theory and is the basis against which all new developmentsare measured. Subsequent studies have attempted to find other explanatory variables of return other than beta. Banz (1981) found evidence of a relationship between size and returns later referred to as the size effect. Chen (1981 and 1983) found that after adjusting for risk factors, the size effect did not yield high returns adequately, thus challenging Banz's findings. In 1985, Chan, Chen and Hsieh using macro and micro economic variables found that given more accurate estimates of beta, no sized-based differences in returns could be observed. Reinganumin 1981 found evidence of high earnings-price (EjP) shares yielding abnormally high returns. He further found a strong relationship between size and earnings-to-price (EjP) ratio. Bhandari (1988) suggested that in addition to beta and size, leverage also played an important explanatory role of returns. Related studies by Basu (1977), Chan, Hamao and Lakonishok (1991) and Jegadeesh (1992) found a multi-variable explanation of returns - market equity, beta, EjP ratio, size and other non-market factors. The combination of these factors led to the conclusion that the CAPM model had been misspecified. Fama and French (1992 and 1995) expanded the research and sought to establish the multi-dimensionality of beta. They found, inter alia, that equities with a high book value vis-a-vis their price realised higher returns than their counterparts. They further found profitability to be positively related to size. This led to a new ratio in financial analysis, the price book ratio (PB). The PB ratio has never emerged as a prominent analytical tool in the financial sector and has historically been superseded by the price earnings (PE) ratio. The author therefore seeks to establish the raison d' etre for the status quo by undertaking an empirical study of the JSE Securities Exchange for the period commencing 1989 and ending 1998. Using financial data obtainable from annual financial statements, the author proceeded to calculate PE and PB ratios. Tracing the mathematical derivation of the two ratios and using the Pearson correlation coefficient, trend analysis and the Spearman Rank correlation test, the author found that there exists prima facie evidence to suggest that the PE ratio could be used as a proxy for the PB ratio. This offers a partial explanation of the inconspicuous role of the PB ratio as an explanatory tool. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Akademici, analiste en beleggers stel steeds belang in en strewe om faktore wat beleggingsopbrengste en aandeleprysbewegings bepaal, met sekerheid te identifiseer. In 1953 het Maurice Kendal, gebaseer op die werk van Louis Bachelier, getoon dat aandelepryse 'n ewekansige patroon volg en as gevolg hiervan nie met sekerheid voorspel kan word nie. Navorsing het twee denkrigtings tot gevolg gehad naamlik fundamentele ontleding en tegniese analise. Fundamentele ontleding veronderstel dat winsgewende beleggingsgeleenthede vanuit 'n deeglik oorweegde impak analise van huidige en historiese data gemaak kan word. Tegniese analise stel voor dat toekomstige prysbewegings uit vorige prysbewegings afgelei en voorspel kan word, óf anders gestel, dat patrone hulself oor 'n sekere periode herhaal. Die stogastiese lopie teorie van Kendall is gevolg deur die markpryswaarderingsmodel (MPM) wat deur Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) en Black (1972) ontwikkel en verfyn is. Die MPM stel risiko (beta) as 'n sentrale veranderlike wat opbrengste voorspel. Die MPM vorm steeds die primêre uitgangspunt van finansiële teorie en die basis waaraan nuwe ontwikkelings gemeet word. Voortspruitend uit die voorafgaande studies, is daar gepoog om verdere veranderlikes anders as beta te ondersoek wat opbrengste voorspel. Banz (1981) toon aan dat daar 'n verhouding bestaan tussen grootte en opbrengste - naamlik die grootte-effek. Chen (1981 en 1983) het die gevolgtrekking gemaak dat die grootte-effek nie genoegsame hoë opbrengste lewer nadat risikofaktore in berekening gebring is nie. Gevolglik is Banz se bevindinge bevraagteken. In 1985 het Chan, Chen en Hsieh deur die gebruik van makro en mikro-ekonomiese veranderlikes bevind dat, gegewe 'n meer akkurate bepaling van beta, geen grootte gebaseerde opbrengste waargeneem kon word nie. Reinganum (1981) bevind dat bewyse bestaan dat aandele met hoë verdienste-prys abnormaal hoë opbrengste getoon het. Sterk verhoudings tussen grootte en die aandeel se prysverdienste verhouding is waargeneem. Bhandari (1988), in verdere navorsing in hierdie verband, stel dat in aanvulling tot die gebruik van die beta-koëffisient en grootte, hefboomwerking ook 'n belangrike bydrae lewer in die bepaling van opbrengste. Verbandhoudende studies deur Basu (1977), Chan, Hamao en Lakonishok (1991) en Jegadeesh (1992) stel dat opbrengste verduidelik kan word aan die hand van verskeie veranderlikes, naamlik markekwiteit, beta, prysverdienste verhouding, grootte en ander nie-markverwante faktore. Die kombinering van hierdie faktore het gelei tot die gevolgtrekking dat die MPM model verkeerd gespesifiseerd was. Fama en French (1992 en 1995) se navorsing poog om die multi-dimensionaliteit van beta te bepaal. Hulle bevind onder andere dat aandele wat 'n hoë boekwaarde teenoor prys, 'n hoër verdienste of opbrengs oplewer as ander aandele. Verder is bevind dat 'n positiewe korrelasie tussen winsgewendheid en grootte bestaan. Dit het gelei tot 'n nuwe verhouding in finansiële analise, naamlik die prys-tot-boek verhouding (PB). Die PB-verhouding het egter nooit in die finansiële sektor gerealiseer as 'n prominente analitiese metode nie en word histories deur die prysverdienste verhouding oorskadu. Die skrywer wil gevolglik die raison d' etre vasstel vir die status quo deur 'n empiriese studie van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs vir die periode 1989 tot 1998 te onderneem. Deur jaarlikse finansiële state te ontleed, is die prysverdienste en prys-tot-boek verhoudings bereken. Deur 'n wiskundige afleiding van die twee verhoudings te maak, die Pearson korrelasiekoëffisient, tendensanalise en die Spearman rang korrelasiekoëffisienttoets te gebruik, het die skrywer bevind dat daar prima facie getuienis bestaan dat die prysverdienste verhouding ook gebruik kan word as 'n ekwivalent vir die prys-tot-boek verhouding. Dit bied 'n gedeeltelike verklaring van die ontoereikende rol van die prys-tot- boek verhouding as 'n verklarende veranderlike.

Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 1998. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In many ways, the cash flow statement can be more informative than the other financial statements. It is relatively freer from subjective accounting and reveals managerial choices, such as investment and financing decisions, which are less apparent from the balance sheet or income statement. One of the components of the cash flow statement, cash flow from operations, is the primary focus and the primary variable of interest in this study. The study set out to create a database for the University of Stellenbosch Business School by using cash flow ratios of listed industrial companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange for the period 1974 to 1997. This is an initial attempt to have such a facility in place to assist future researchers in establishing patterns present in the ratios. Descriptive statistics were calculated for all the ratios. Twenty-two ratios were calculated in three ways: (a) Ratios were pooled over time and over sector; (b) Ratios were pooled over time for each of the 17 sectors; and (c) Ratios were pooled over sectors for each of the years 1974 to 1997. In addition, chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for normality were conducted. To get insight into the potential patterns, some of the statistical properties of cash flow ratios have been examined with particular reference to two ratios, (ratio 14 and ratio 20). These were chosen since they are considered to be the most important ratios in the study. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die kontantvloeistaat kan op baie maniere meer inligting as die ander finansieIe state verskaf. Dit word relatief gesproke minder deur subjektiewe rekerungkunde beYnvloed en dit 1aat die klem val op bestuursbesluite, S005 investerings- en finansieringsbesluite. Laasgenoemdes is minder duidelik waameembaar as daar na die balansstaat en inkomstestaat gekyk word. Kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite. een van die komponente van die kontantvloeistaat, is die primere fokus en die belangrikste item in hierdie studie. Die doel van die studie is om 'n datahasis vir die Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch daar te stel, deur gebruik te maak van kontantvloeiverhoudings van aile genoteerde industriele maatskappye op die Johannesburg Effektebeurs vir die periode 1974 tot 1997. Dit was 'n eerste poging om so 'n fasiliteit daar te stel ten einde toekomstige navorsers in staat te stel om patrone aanwesig in die verhoudings waar te neem. Beskrywende statistiek is bereken Vlf al die verhoudings. Twee en twintig verhoudings is bereken op drie maniere: (a) Verhoudings gepoel oor tyd en oor sektore heen; (b) Verhoudings verpoel oor jare vir elk van die 17 sektore; en (c) Verhoudings verpoel oor sektore heen, per jaar vanaf 1974 tot 1997. Verder is die chi-kwadraat en die Kolmogorov-Smirnoftoetse vir normaliteit gedoen. Twee van die verhoudings. verhoudings 14 en 20, is uitgesonder as die belangrikste verhoudings in die studie. Ten einde insig in die potensieie patrone van die kontantvloeiverhoudings te verkry, is die statistiese eienskappe van hierdie twee verhoudings verder ondersoek.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 1995. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In spite of the significant role of price-earnings ratios on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. relatively little is known of the behaviour of these ratios over time. The price-earnings ratio is the price of the company's share. divided by the company's earnings per share. In a theoretically stable environment the interpretation of the price-earnings ratio is less problematic than in an everyday unstable. non-perfect market. The problem with a non-perfect market, is that the expectations and assumptions of investors start to play a role. This is difficult to quantify. To analyse price·earnings ratios now become problematic . Based on the formula for price-earnings ratio, one can say that it represents that which the investor is willing to pay, for one rand of the earnings of the company. A high price-earnings ratio is a function of either a big expected growth in earnings for the company, or a very small earnings for the company in that financial year. The purpose of this study is: 1) The accomplishment of a databank which reflects the relative rank of the different companies. 2) To establish the relationship of the rank of a given year with future ranks. The study was conducted on all industrial companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Price·earnings ratios calculated with share prices at financial year-end, as well as price-earnings ratios calculated with share prices three months after the financial year·end, were used in the study. Companies included in the study were divided into groups which have been listed for 20. 15, 10 and 5 years respectively. Descriptive statistical methods were used to find out more about the data. To establish the extent of the relationships between the different ranks, Spearman's rankorder coefficient was used. Finally a databank was established to show the different relative ranks of the different groups. Descriptive statistics indicated that price-earnings ratios are not disrtibuted normally. The median was therefore used in all the groups as representative of the data. The median showed a definite upward trend over time. The medians of the price-earnings ratios calculated on the share prices three months after financial year-end, closely follow the medians of the price-earning ratios calculated on share prices at financial year-end. This indicates that either investors do not take the earnings of the companies into account, or that investors' expectations of earnings are correct. It is, however, doubtful whether investors have sufficient information at financial year-end. Spearman's rankorder coefficient showed a definite positive and significant trend. especially if the time-span of the tests are taken into account. Companies which were therefore ranked high, wilt most probably be high again the following year, if the time-span does not exceed five years. The databank which was established to show the relative ranks of the different companies, showed that the so-called top companies do not necessarily fall into the top positions. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Alhoewel prys-verdienste-verhoudings 'n belangrike rol op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs speel, is relatief min inligting beskikbaar oor die werking daarvan oor die lang termyn. Die prys-verdienste-verhouding is die prys van die maatskappy se aandeel, gedeel deur die verdienste per aandeel. Die interpretasie van prys-verdienste-verhoudings is minder problematies in 'n teoreties stabiele omgewing as in 'n oorwegend onseker, nie-perfekte marksituasie. Die probleem in laasgenoemde tipe mark is dat beleggersverwagtings en -aannames toenemend 'n rol begin speel. Aangesien verwagtings en aannames moeilik is om te kwantifiseer, bemoeilik dit ook die interpretasie van prys-verdienste-verhoudings. Volgens die formule verteenwoordig prys-verdienste-verhoudings dit wat beleggers bereid is om te betaal, vir een rand verdienste van die maatskappy. 'n Groot prys-verdienste-verhouding is 'n funksie van groot verwagte verdienstegroei van die maatskappy, of 'n baie klein verdienste per aandeel vir die maatskappy in daardie betrokke finansiele jaar. Die doel van die studie is: 1) Die daarstelling van 'n databank van prys-verdienste-verhoudings wat die relatiewe rangorde van die verskillende maatskappye reflekteer. 2) Vasstelling van die verband tussen rangordes van 'n bepaalde jaar en toekomstige rangordes . Die studie is gedoen op alle industriële maatskappye op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs. Prys-verdienste-verhoudings bereken volgens aandeelpryse op finansiële jaareinde, asook die bereken op aandeelpryse drie maande na afloop van die finansiële jaareinde van die betrokke maatskappy , is by hierdie studie ingesluit. Maatskappye is in vier groepe verdeel naamlik maatskappye wat onderskeidelik al 20, 15, 10 en 5 jaar genoteer is. Ter toeligting van hierdie data in die verskillende groepe, is beskrywende statistiese metodes gebruik en geinterpreteer. Spearman se rangorde korrelasiekoëffisient is gebruik om die omvang van die verband tussen rangordes vas te stel. 'n Databank is laastens opgestel vir die verskillende groepe wat relatiewe rangorde aantoon. Volgens die beskrywende statistiese metodes is die prys-verdienste-verhoudings nie normaal verdeel nie. Die mediaan is dus in alle groepe as verteenwoordigend van die data gebruik, in plaas van die gemiddelde. Die mediaan het in alle groepe 'n skerp stygende tendens oor tyd getoon. Mediane van prys-verdienste-verhoudings bereken op aandeelpryse drie maande na die finansiële jaareinde, het 'n sterk ooreenkoms getoon met mediane van prys-verdienste-verhoudings bereken op finansiële jaareind aandeelpryse. Dit kan 'n gevolg wees van of die feit dat beleggers hulle nie veel steur aan die verdienstes van maatskappye nie, of dat beleggers se verwagtings van die maatskappye se verdienstes korrek was. Dit is egter te betwyfel of beleggers op finansiële jaareinde oor genoegsame intigting beskik. Spearman se rangorde korrelasiekoëffisient toon 'n definitiewe positiewe en beduidende tendens, veral as die tydsduur van die toetse wat gedoen is in ag geneem word. Maatskappye met 'n hoë rangorde sal daarom waarskynlik ook die daaropvolgende jare 'n hoë rangorde hê, veral as die tydperk nie langer as vyf jaar is nie. Volgens die databank wat saamgestel is om die relatiewe rangordes van die verskillende maatskappye se prys-verdienste-verhoudings aan te toon. hey, sogenaamde top maatskappye nie hoog in die hiërargie van top maatskappye gefigureer nie.

This thesis includes a financial analysis of AGC Flat Glass Czech a.s. on the basis of financial reports of the period 2005 - 2009. The theoretical part describes the methods of financial analysis - absolute and ratio analysis, predictive models, economic value added. The practical part includes an analysis of macroeconomic and industry growth, the financial analysis and comparison with the industry.

The thesis aim is to examine and evaluate the Metrostav a.s financial health during the years 2005 and 2009 even in the context of economic crisis. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first one, theoretical - methodological part, describes the various methods of financial analysis, which are gradually being applied in the practical part. The content of the practical part is a brief description of the company and the construction sector, followed by the very core of financial analysis. At the end there are summarized learned knowledge of applied methods and interpreted results of financial analysis.

Orientador: David Ferreira Lopes Santos / Banca: Timóteo Ramos Queiroz / Banca: Marcelo Augusto Ambrozini / Banca: José Antônio de Souza Rossato Junior / Resumo: A diversificação de culturas confere benefícios à propriedade rural quanto à redução do risco do negócio e aos proventos agronômicos no ambiente produtivo. Na atividade canavieira a diversificação de culturas pelo sistema de rotação ou sucessão agrícola ainda é um paradigma para o produtor rural, principalmente devido ao ciclo produtivo da cana-de-açúcar (Saccharum spp) distinto das culturas anuais que induzem o produtor a manter a cultura entre 4 a 6 anos para diluir o investimento da implantação. Por conseguinte o plantio de outra cultura é realizado nas áreas de reforma de canavial apenas ao final do ciclo da cana. Esta pesquisa questiona esse paradigma ao utilizar a teoria de opções reais para capturar o valor da flexibilidade gerencial em diversificar a produção como forma de minimizar o risco e aumentar os resultados do empreendimento rural utilizando a opção de troca entre as culturas de cana e soja, considerando um modelo polinomial combinando a volatilidade de mercado com a volatilidade da produtividade. Para tanto, tomou-se como base um experimento agrícola realizado ao longo de 7 anos, com diferentes sistemas de sucessão com cana, instalado e conduzido em uma propriedade rural na Região de Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brasil. Diante dos resultados pode-se deferir que o sistema de sucessão soja/crotalária/soja/cana foi o que obteve melhor desempenho agronômico e econômico-financeiro e, a diversificação de culturas por meio da teoria do portfólio devolveu uma maior valori... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Diversification of crops confers benefits to rural property in reducing business risk and agronomic revenues in the productive environment. In sugar cane crop diversification by the rotation system or agricultural succession is still a paradigm for the rural producer, mainly due to the productive cycle of sugarcane (Saccharum spp) distinct from the annual crops that induce the producer to maintain the crop Between 4 and 6 years to dilute the deployment investment. Consequently, the planting of another crop is carried out in the areas of sugar cane reforestation only at the end of the cane cycle. This research questions this paradigm when using the real options theory to capture the value of managerial flexibility in diversifying production as a way to minimize risk and increase the results of the rural enterprise using the exchange option between cane and soybean crops, considering A polynomial model combining market volatility and productivity volatility. For this, an agricultural experiment was carried out over 7 years, with different sugarcane succession systems, installed and conducted in a rural property in the Jaboticabal Region, São Paulo, Brazil. In view of the results, it can be inferred that the succession system soybean / crotalaria / soybean / cane was the one that obtained the best agronomic and economic-financial performance and, the diversification of cultures through the theory of the portfolio returned a greater value to the activity, in a Division of area in 44% of sugarcane and 56% of soybean. These area quantities demonstrated financial viability at the Point of Equilibrium. Based on the real options theory, based on the agronomic and market risks in a polynomial approach, there was a higher return on investment with the flexibility of substitution of cane with soy...(Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre