The objective of this thesis is to develop a strategy that allows robots to safely execute open-loop motion patterns for pre-computed time durations when facing interruptions in communication. By computing the time horizon in which collisions with other robots are impossible, this method allows the robots to move safely despite having no updated information about the environment. As the complexity of multi-robot systems increase, communication failures in the form of packet losses, saturated network channels and hardware failures are inevitable. This thesis is motivated by the need to increase the robustness of operation in the face of such failures. The advantage of this strategy is that it prevents the jerky and unpredictable motion behaviour which often plague robotic systems experiencing communication issues. To compute the safe time horizon, the first step involves constructing reachable sets around the robots to determine the set of all positions that can be reached by the robot in a given amount of time. In order to avoid complications arising from the non-convexity of these reachable sets, analytical expressions for minimum area ellipses enclosing the reachable sets are obtained. By using a fast gradient descent based technique, intersections are computed between a robot’s trajectory and the reachable sets of other robots. This information is then used to compute the safe time horizon for each robot in real time. To this end, provable safety guarantees are formulated to ensure collision avoidance. This strategy has been verified in simulation as well as on a team of two-wheeled differential drive robots on a multi-robot testbed.

Threat assessment and reliable motion-prediction of surrounding vehicles are some of the major challenges encountered in autonomous vehicles' safe decision-making. Predicting a threat in advance can give an autonomous vehicle enough time to avoid crashes or near crash situations. Most vehicles on roads are human-driven, making it challenging to predict their intentions and movements due to inherent uncertainty in their behaviors. Moreover, different driver behaviors pose different kinds of threats. Various driver behavior predictive models have been proposed in the literature for motion prediction. However, these models cannot be trusted entirely due to the human drivers' highly uncertain nature. This thesis proposes a novel trust-based driver behavior prediction and stochastic reachable set threat assessment methodology for various dangerous situations on the road. This trust-based methodology allows autonomous vehicles to quantify the degree of trust in their predictions to generate the probabilistically safest trajectory. This approach can be instrumental in the near-crash scenarios where no collision-free trajectory exists. Three different driving behaviors are considered: Normal, Aggressive, and Drowsy. Hidden Markov Models are used for driver behavior prediction. A "trust" in the detected driver is established by combining four driving features: Longitudinal acceleration, lateral acceleration, lane deviation, and velocity. A stochastic reachable set-based approach is used to model these three different driving behaviors. Two measures of threat are proposed: Current Threat and Short Term Prediction Threat which quantify present and the future probability of a crash. The proposed threat assessment methodology resulted in a lower rate of false positives and negatives. This probabilistic threat assessment methodology is used to address the second challenge in autonomous vehicle safety: crash avoidance decision-making. This thesis presents a fast, proactive decision-making methodology based on Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC). A proactive decision-making approach exploits the surrounding human-driven vehicles' intent to assess the future threat, which helps generate a safe trajectory in advance, unlike reactive decision-making approaches that do not account for the surrounding vehicles' future intent. The crash avoidance problem is formulated as a chance-constrained optimization problem to account for uncertainty in the surrounding vehicle's motion. These chance-constraints always ensure a minimum probabilistic safety of the autonomous vehicle by keeping the probability of crash below a predefined risk parameter. This thesis proposes a tractable and deterministic reformulation of these chance-constraints using convex hull formulation for a fast real-time implementation. The controller's performance is studied for different risk parameters used in the chance-constraint formulation. Simulation results show that the proposed control methodology can avoid crashes in most hazardous situations on the road. / Master of Science / Unexpected road situations frequently arise on the roads which leads to crashes. In an NHTSA study, it was reported that around 94% of car crashes could be attributed to driver errors and misjudgments. This could be attributed to drinking and driving, fatigue, or reckless driving on the roads. Full self-driving cars can significantly reduce the frequency of such accidents. Testing of self-driving cars has recently begun on certain roads, and it is estimated that one in ten cars will be self-driving by the year 2030. This means that these self-driving cars will need to operate in human-driven environments and interact with human-driven vehicles. Therefore, it is crucial for autonomous vehicles to understand the way humans drive on the road to avoid collisions and interact safely with human-driven vehicles on the road. Detecting a threat in advance and generating a safe trajectory for crash avoidance are some of the major challenges faced by autonomous vehicles. We have proposed a reliable decision-making algorithm for crash avoidance in autonomous vehicles. Our framework addresses two core challenges encountered in crash avoidance decision-making in autonomous vehicles: 1. The outside challenge: Reliable motion prediction of surrounding vehicles to continuously assess the threat to the autonomous vehicle. 2. The inside challenge: Generating a safe trajectory for the autonomous vehicle in case of future predicted threat. The outside challenge is to predict the motion of surrounding vehicles. This requires building a reliable model through which future evolution of their position states can be predicted. Building these models is not trivial, as the surrounding vehicles' motion depends on human driver intentions and behaviors, which are highly uncertain. Various driver behavior predictive models have been proposed in the literature. However, most do not quantify trust in their predictions. We have proposed a trust-based driver behavior prediction method which combines all sensor measurements to output the probability (trust value) of a certain driver being "drowsy", "aggressive", or "normal". This method allows the autonomous vehicle to choose how much to trust a particular prediction. Once a picture is painted of surrounding vehicles, we can generate safe trajectories in advance – the inside challenge. Most existing approaches use stochastic optimal control methods, which are computationally expensive and impractical for fast real-time decision-making in crash scenarios. We have proposed a fast, proactive decision-making algorithm to generate crash avoidance trajectories based on Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC). We reformulate the SMPC probabilistic constraints as deterministic constraints using convex hull formulation, allowing for faster real-time implementation. This deterministic SMPC implementation ensures in real-time that the vehicle maintains a minimum probabilistic safety.

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<p>Set-based methods have been leveraged in many engineering applications from robust control and global optimization, to probabilistic planning and estimation. While useful, these methods have most widely been applied to analysis over sets that are convex, due to their ease in both representation and calculation. The representation and analysis of nonconvex sets is inherently complex. When nonconvexity arises in design and control applications, the nonconvex set is often over-approximated by a convex set to provide conservative results. However, the level of conservatism may be large and difficult to quantify, often leading to trivial results and requiring repetitive analysis by the engineer. Nonconvexity is inherent and unavoidable in many applications, such as the analysis of hybrid systems and robust safety constraints. </p> <p>In this dissertation, I present a new nonconvex set representation named the hybrid zonotope. The hybrid zonotope builds upon a combination of recent advances in the compact representation of convex sets in the controls literature with methods leveraged in solving mixed-integer programming problems. It is shown that the hybrid zonotope is equivalent to the union of an exponential number of convex sets while using a linear number of continuous and binary variables in the set’s representation. I provide identities for, and derivations of, the set operations of hybrid zonotopes for linear mappings, Minkowski sums, generalized intersections, halfspace intersections, Cartesian products, unions, complements, point containment, set containment, support functions, and convex enclosures. I also provide methods for redundancy removal and order reduction to improve the compactness and computational efficiency of the represented sets. Therefore proving the hybrid zonotopes expressive power and applicability to many nonconvex set-theoretic methods. Beyond basic set operations, I specifically show how the exact forward and backward reachable sets of linear hybrid systems may be found using identities that are calculated algebraically and scale linearly. Numerical examples show the scalability of the proposed methods and how they may be used to verify the safety and performance of complex systems. These exact methods may also be used to evaluate the level of conservatism of the existing approximate methods provided in the literature.  </p>