The cost of construction projects depends on their size, complexity, and duration. Construction management applies effective management techniques to the planning, design, and construction of a project from conception to completion for the purpose of controlling time, cost and quality. A real options approach in construction projects, improves strategic thinking by helping planners recognize, design and use flexible alternatives to manage dynamic uncertainty. In order to manage uncertainty using this approach, it is necessary to value the real options. Real option models assume independence of option holder and the impacts of underlying uncertainties on performance and value. The current work proposes and initially tests whether project management reduces the value of real options. The example of resource allocation is used to test this hypothesis. Based on the results, it is concluded that project management reduces the value of real options by reducing variance of the exercise signal and the difference between exercise conditions and the mean exercise signal.

The cost of construction projects depends on their size, complexity, and duration. Construction management applies effective management techniques to the planning, design, and construction of a project from conception to completion for the purpose of controlling time, cost and quality. A real options approach in construction projects, improves strategic thinking by helping planners recognize, design and use flexible alternatives to manage dynamic uncertainty. In order to manage uncertainty using this approach, it is necessary to value the real options. Real option models assume independence of option holder and the impacts of underlying uncertainties on performance and value. The current work proposes and initially tests whether project management reduces the value of real options. The example of resource allocation is used to test this hypothesis. Based on the results, it is concluded that project management reduces the value of real options by reducing variance of the exercise signal and the difference between exercise conditions and the mean exercise signal.

Contingent Claim Pricing with Applications to Financial Risk Management By Hua Chen 2008 Committee Chair: Samuel H. Cox and Shaun Wang Major Academic Unit: Department of Risk Management and Insurance This is a multi-essay dissertation designed to explore the contingent claim pricing theory with non-tradable underlying assets, with emphasis on its applications to insurance and risk management. In the first essay, I apply the real option pricing theory and dynamic programming methods to address problems in the area of operational risk management. Particularly, I develop a two-stage model to help firms determine optimal switching triggers in the event of an influenza epidemic. In the second essay, I examine mortality securitization in an incomplete market framework. I build a jump-diffusion process into the original Lee-Carter model and explore alternative model with transitory versus permanent jump effects. I discuss pricing difficulties of the Swiss Re mortality bond (2003) and use the Wang transform to account for correlations of the mortality index over time. In the third essay, I study the valuation of the non-recourse provision in reverse mortgages. I model the various risks embedded in the HECM program and apply the conditional Esscher transform to price the non-recourse provision. I further examine the premium structure of HECM loans and investigate whether insurance premiums are adequate to cover expected claims.

This thesis introduces and discusses the notion that real options theory can be applied to investment decisions when the value lies in human capital. This approach contributes in circumventing traditional problems which arise during valuation of intangible assets. This leads to the development of HR (human resource) options, which can be defined as “investments in the human capital pool of an organization that provide the capability to respond to future contingent events” (Bhattacharya & Wright, 2005), or “real options featuring intangible assets” (A. Berk & Kaše, 2010), created through HR practices or strategies. Different HR options (i.e. compensation plans, recruitments, temporary workers) have been studied by scholars and have been shown to have an effect in different aspects of a firm (i.e. growth, flexibility, learning). The different categories of uncertainties surrounding (the valuation of) human capital are discussed; they are relevant for the case study of this thesis. The thesis focuses on recruiting as a HR option: a single recruitment is viewed as an investment project and an attempt to determine its Net Present Value is made. For this reason, a valuation model is developed with help of continuous-time stochastic processes which have been previously used for similar purposes in research. The model is then implemented in a real-world scenario, with data either taken from publicly available market indexes and from statistical processing of employee data provided by a large (500+ employees) consulting company, active across various sectors of the Swedish industry. The expected value of a single recruitment is therefore determined. Sensitivity analyses are then carried out with the intent to provide insight into how certain parameters (and, in extension, the HR processes that determine them) affect the expected value of a recruitment. A conclusion which should be kept in mind during reading is that the main objective of this paper is not the valuation part itself. Instead, it is the discussion about different parameters, the listing of uncertainties involved, and the sensitivity of the result to various HR practices, which seek to bring understanding regarding the recruitment process and HR options in general. / Denna avhandling introducerar och diskuterar uppfattningen att realoptionsteori kan tillämpas på investeringsbeslut när värdet ligger i humankapital. Detta tillvägagångssätt bidrar till att kringgå traditionella problem som uppstår vid värdering av immateriella tillgångar. Detta leder till utvecklingen av HR-alternativ, som kan definieras som "investeringar i humankapitalpoolen i en organisation som ger förmågan att svara på framtida betingade händelser" (Bhattacharya & Wright, 2005), eller "reala optioner med immateriella tillgångar” (A. Berk & Kaše, 2010), skapade genom HR-praxis eller strategier. Olika HR-alternativ (t.ex. kompensationsplaner, rekryteringar, tillfälligt anställda) har studerats av forskare och har visat sig ha en effekt i olika aspekter av ett företag (t.ex. tillväxt, flexibilitet, lärande). De olika kategorierna av osäkerheter kring (värderingen av) humankapital diskuteras; de är relevanta för fallstudien av denna avhandling. Avhandlingen fokuserar på rekrytering som ett HR-alternativ: en enstaka rekrytering ses som ett investeringsprojekt och ett försök att fastställa dess nettonuvärde görs. Av denna anledning utvecklas en värderingsmodell med hjälp av kontinuerliga stokastiska processer som tidigare använts för liknande ändamål i forskning. Modellen implementeras sedan i ett verkligt scenario, med data hämtade från allmänt tillgängliga marknadsindex och från statistisk bearbetning av personaldata från ett stort (500+ anställda) svenskt konsultföretag. Därefter bestäms förväntningsvärdet av en enstaka rekrytering. Känslighetsanalyser genomförs sedan i syfte att ge insikt i hur vissa parametrar (och i förlängningen de HR-processer som bestämmer dem) påverkar det förväntade värdet av en rekrytering. En slutsats som bör hållas i åtanke under läsningen är att huvudsyftet med denna uppsats inte är själva värderingsdelen. Istället är det diskussionen om olika parametrar, uppräkningen av inblandade osäkerheter och resultatets känslighet för olika HR-praxis, som försöker skapa förståelse för rekryteringsprocessen och HR-möjligheter i allmänhet.