This diploma thesis is concerned with real estate bubbles in the world economy, with special focus on the U. S. and Japanese experience. The primary aim of the thesis is to compare the U. S. real estate bubble which peaked in 2006 and the Japanese real estate bubble which peaked in 1991. The secondary aim is to verify the validity of five hypotheses stated in the introduction of the thesis. In the first section of the thesis the real estate bubble is defined and characterized. The second section is dedicated to the analysis of already metioned U. S. real estate bubble and Japanese real estate bubble.

The aim of this Diploma thesis is to characterize Hong Kong real estate bubble which reached its peak in 1988 and to analyze housing shortage in Hong Kong. The secondary objective is economic development of Hong Kong and urbanisation trends in 21st century. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first chapter introduces main theoretical urbanisation concepts. The second part deals Hong Kong economic development from 1842 till 2014. The third part analyzes formation and evolution of real estate bubble and housing shortage in Hong Kong.

The aim of this work is to describe the phenomena of bubble in the financial, but especially in the real estate market; based on gained information, the current situation of Chinese real estate market is described. This work is divided into theoretical and more practical part. The theoretical part is devoted to the definition of bubble, bubbles in asset market, real estate market bubbles specifics and its causes analysis, identification and implications for the economy. Also, the Japanese real estate bubble is described. The second part describes the evolution of Chinese real estate market and provides overview of the milestones in its evolution. Moreover, it deals with specifics of the Chinese real estate market and explains the factors behind the rise in prices. Further in second part, situation on Chinese housing market is compared with the one in Japan during real estate bubble. Furthermore, this thesis explains how state government can coordinate, regulate and intervene on the market and comes up with short-term outlook.

Este estudo tem como objetivo explorar e testar se os preços das moradias nas cidades de Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo podem ser explicados por um conjunto de indicadores econômicos selecionados, que inclui variáveis sociais e de custos de construção. Modelos de previsão de preços das residências foram construídos por meio da aplicação de análise fatorial seguida de regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários. Estes modelos não cumpriram com todos os pressupostos estatísticos necessários. Alternativamente, para cada uma das cidades, foi obtido um modelo ajustado a partir da regressão das séries em estado estacionário, seguida da aplicação da técnica de omissão de variáveis a partir do modelo completo. Finalmente, por meio da cointegração de Johansen, foi elaborado um modelo que evidencia o comportamento de longo prazo dos índices de preços. Este modelo foi utilizado para analisar o risco de existência de bolhas imobiliárias nas cidades estudadas, que se mostrou menor em São Paulo que no Rio de Janeiro onde, no entanto, pode-se observar um movimento de convergência dos preços reais para a curva de preços de longo prazo, indicando redução gradual no sobrepreço dos imóveis, se mantida a tendência. / This study aimed at exploring and testing whether house prices in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo could be explained by a set of selected economic indexes, which includes social variables and construction costs. Some prediction models were constructed by applying a factor analysis followed by an ordinary least-squares linear regression. However, these models have failed to comply with all the necessary statistical assumptions. Alternatively, for each of the cities, an accurate model was obtained by applying a stepwise regression technique to a set of steady state variables (first, second and third difference). Finally, it was used the Johansen cointegration to develop a model for the long-term behavior of house prices. The model was used to analyze the risk of real estate bubbles in the studied cities, which was shown to be lower in Sao Paulo than in Rio de Janeiro. However, Rio exhibits a convergence trend in real prices to the long-term price curve, indicating gradual reduction in overpricing, if the trend continues.

Submitted by Rodson Heringer (rodsonheringer@gmail.com) on 2014-08-19T13:35:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodson Heringer_vfinal.pdf: 585514 bytes, checksum: 47c7b742f2da43456fabe8d31c914054 (MD5) / Rejected by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: As paginas continuam numeradas. A numeração das paginas deverão ser contadas a partir do índice. on 2014-08-19T13:40:45Z (GMT) / Submitted by Rodson Heringer (rodsonheringer@gmail.com) on 2014-08-19T14:14:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodson Heringer_vfinal.pdf: 586286 bytes, checksum: d42505429c5f0cbf765dd2d32c6cb066 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-08-19T14:15:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodson Heringer_vfinal.pdf: 586286 bytes, checksum: d42505429c5f0cbf765dd2d32c6cb066 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-19T16:15:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodson Heringer_vfinal.pdf: 586286 bytes, checksum: d42505429c5f0cbf765dd2d32c6cb066 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-04 / Este trabalho analisa a variação da taxa de aluguel e do custo de moradia nas cidades de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro para o período de Janeiro de 2008 a Janeiro de 2014 utilizando uma abordagem quantitativa com base na expectativa de longo prazo da taxa de juros reais, na expectativa de inflação e na valorização do preço dos imóveis em uma janela de 1 ano. Os resultados indicam que a expectativa de longo prazo da taxa de juros reais tem um impacto relevante na variação da taxa de aluguel durante o período abordado, bem como a expectativa de inflação, mas em magnitude menor, enquanto a valorização passada de 1 ano não tem poder explicativo sobre a taxa de aluguel. / We examine the variation of the rent-to-price ratio in the cities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro from January 2008 to January 2014 using a quantitative approach based on the expected long-term real interest rate, the expected inflation rate and the price appreciation of real estate during the last twelve months. The results indicate that the expected long-term real interest rate has a significant impact on the variation of the rent-to-price ratio during the period covered, as well as the expected inflation, but to a lesser degree, while the past price appreciation has no explanatory power.

Este estudo tem como objetivo explorar e testar se os preços das moradias nas cidades de Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo podem ser explicados por um conjunto de indicadores econômicos selecionados, que inclui variáveis sociais e de custos de construção. Modelos de previsão de preços das residências foram construídos por meio da aplicação de análise fatorial seguida de regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários. Estes modelos não cumpriram com todos os pressupostos estatísticos necessários. Alternativamente, para cada uma das cidades, foi obtido um modelo ajustado a partir da regressão das séries em estado estacionário, seguida da aplicação da técnica de omissão de variáveis a partir do modelo completo. Finalmente, por meio da cointegração de Johansen, foi elaborado um modelo que evidencia o comportamento de longo prazo dos índices de preços. Este modelo foi utilizado para analisar o risco de existência de bolhas imobiliárias nas cidades estudadas, que se mostrou menor em São Paulo que no Rio de Janeiro onde, no entanto, pode-se observar um movimento de convergência dos preços reais para a curva de preços de longo prazo, indicando redução gradual no sobrepreço dos imóveis, se mantida a tendência. / This study aimed at exploring and testing whether house prices in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo could be explained by a set of selected economic indexes, which includes social variables and construction costs. Some prediction models were constructed by applying a factor analysis followed by an ordinary least-squares linear regression. However, these models have failed to comply with all the necessary statistical assumptions. Alternatively, for each of the cities, an accurate model was obtained by applying a stepwise regression technique to a set of steady state variables (first, second and third difference). Finally, it was used the Johansen cointegration to develop a model for the long-term behavior of house prices. The model was used to analyze the risk of real estate bubbles in the studied cities, which was shown to be lower in Sao Paulo than in Rio de Janeiro. However, Rio exhibits a convergence trend in real prices to the long-term price curve, indicating gradual reduction in overpricing, if the trend continues.

The diploma thesis deals with the occurence of price bubbles in the real estate markets and with the consequences resulting from their existence for the monetary policy authorities and for the macroprudential supervision. At first, the nature of price bubbles, the circumstances of their occurence and downfall and the possibilities of their identification are explained, while they are divided into rational and irrational bubbles. This is followed by the characteristics of the real estate market, by a description of its operation and by assessment of its specifics compared to the markets of other assets, while the real estate market is characterized by several market imperfections which constantly prevent it from heading to the equilibrium. Next part of the thesis refers to the analysis of the potential price bubble in the current Czech real estate market, separately for both the residential and the commercial segment of the market. Attention is paid to the central bank's response to current developments. In the last part, the thesis focuses on the implications of the impact of price bubbles on the real estate markets for the central banks' monetary policy and for macroprudential supervision authorities. The thesis also discusses the importance of asset prices in the context of inflation targeting and the importance of the role of real estate markets in systemic financial crises.

本論文では、中国不動産市場にバブルが存在しているか否かを実証的に考察した上で、バブルが生じる原因及び中国不動産市場の問題点を国際比較の視点から明らかにする。さらに、不動産価格を効率化させる諸条件を示すことを通じて、中国不動産バブルの軟着陸対策を短期対策、長期対策および不動産企業のあり方の三つに分けて検討し、中国不動産市場全体の健全化のための必要な施策を考察する。 / With the rapid increase of Chinese housing price, whether a bust in the Chinese real estate market could threaten the China's economic activity and the stability of the world's finance is concerned by Economists. In this paper, whether there is a bubble in Chinese real estate market is verified through the empirical research from the perspective of international comparison. In addition, the reasons and problems in Chinese real estate market are cleared. The soft landing of China's real estate bubble is discussed in this paper. / 博士(商学) / Doctor of Commerce / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University