For several decades, management scholars have extolled the virtues of using real option logic when making decisions under uncertainty. Real option logic suggests that in such situations, firms might be better off deferring or staging investments, reducing potential financial losses, while at the same time securing an option to grow (or abandon) the investment when uncertainty abates. Our analysis of the empirical research published in leading management journals over the past 25 years suggests that while some progress has been made, much more work needs to be done. We still do not have the answers to critical questions such as: Which entrepreneurial/managerial traits impact the identification or exploitation of real options? Do multiple types of uncertainties interact with each other and influence real option decisions? Addressing these and other issues identified in our study can help improve our understanding of the usefulness of real option logic in management.

The soaring number of natural hazards in recent years due largely to climate change has resulted in an even higher level of investment in flood protection structures. However, such investments tend to be made in the aftermath of disasters. Very little is known about the proactive planning of flood protection investments that account for uncertainties associated with flooding events. Understanding the uncertainties such as “when” to invest on these structures to achieve the most optimal cost-saving amount is outmost important. This study fills this large knowledge gap by developing an investment decision-making assessment framework that determines an optimal timing of flood protection investment options. It combines real options with a net present value analysis to examine managerial flexibility in various investment timing options. Historical data that contain information about river water discharges were leveraged as a random variable in the modeling framework because it may help investors better understand the probability of extreme events, and particularly, flooding uncertainties. A lattice model was then used to investigate potential alternatives of investment timing and to evaluate the benefits of delaying investments in each case. The efficacy of the proposed framework was demonstrated by an illustrative example of flood protection investment. The framework will be used to help better inform decision makers.

Exporting plays an imperative role in many firms growth and survival. For that reason, a profound understanding of export operations is of interest to researchers as well as practitioners. Choosing the export mode is one of the most important strategic decisions a firm makes when exporting to its foreign markets. This decision may affect the firm s resource allocations and shape the possibility of future foreign expansion, and thus has potential performance implications. This study acknowledges that export mode choices should contribute to the firm success initially and on a continuous basis. Hence, it recognises the interlinked nature of export mode operations, and, for the first time, adapts a holistic view on export operation modes. Introducing the portfolio logic, this study investigates antecedents of the export mode portfolio and its performance implications. Two different theoretical approaches of transaction cost economics (TCE) and real options (RO) were used to distinguish different possible export mode portfolios of a firm. The study model is empirically tested using data from 250 Chinese export firms. From the TCE perspective, the finding suggests that firms' levels of investment uncertainty and export marketing capability are the main drivers of an internalised export mode portfolio. From the RO theory viewpoint, on the other hand, the result indicates that firms' levels of endogenous uncertainties (i.e. cultural uncertainty and technological uncertainty) are positively related to the intensity of use of Joint-Investment export modes in the portfolio of firms. In ddition, as expected, the greater the preponderance of exogenous uncertainties (i.e. investment uncertainty and demand uncertainty) the higher the proportion of No-Investment export modes in the portfolio of the firm. Further analysis of firms' export performance reveals that firms shaping their export mode portfolios according to the predictions of real options out-perform firms that shape their export mode portfolio based on TCE considerations. More specifically, firms that reduce their endogenous uncertainty, by engaging more in Joint- Investment modes of export operation across their portfolio, benefit from higher profit performance. The new model developed in this study provides a tool that enables scholars to give better advice to exporters on how they can structure their export mode portfolio for enhanced export profit.

Submitted by LUCIANO CANDIDO SILVA null (luciano.silva1@nissan.com.br) on 2016-06-22T23:48:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação versão final.pdf: 2172477 bytes, checksum: 4fe67046a80dd8bad23baa326cb55a97 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Paula Grisoto (grisotoana@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-06-24T18:11:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_lc_me_guara.pdf: 2172477 bytes, checksum: 4fe67046a80dd8bad23baa326cb55a97 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-24T18:11:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_lc_me_guara.pdf: 2172477 bytes, checksum: 4fe67046a80dd8bad23baa326cb55a97 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-28 / A indústria automobilística tem uma importância crescente no contexto econômico brasileiro - em 2006 o país era o décimo colocado no ranking automotivo mundial e no final de 2010 o quarto lugar. O setor movimenta uma cadeia enorme que engloba fabricantes, fornecedores de matéria-prima, autopeças, distribuidores, postos de gasolina, seguradoras, oficinas mecânicas, borracharias, empresas de comunicação, agências de publicidade, entre outros. Consciente desta importância, o governo federal, através da Lei n° 12.715 de 17 de dezembro de 2012 instituiu o Programa de Incentivo à Inovação Tecnológica e Adensamento da Cadeia Produtiva de Veículos Automotores - INOVAR-AUTO com o objetivo de apoiar o desenvolvimento tecnológico, a inovação, a segurança, a proteção ao meio ambiente, a eficiência energética e a qualidade dos automóveis, caminhões, ônibus e autopeças. No entanto, as empresas adotam tais políticas públicas quando é possível avaliar os ganhos obtidos com sua implantação. Deste modo, este trabalho apresenta a aplicação da Teoria das Opções Reais (TOR) na avaliação dessa política pública. A abordagem modela a tomada de decisão como uma opção de compra americana em um projeto de instalação de uma unidade produtora de veículos automotores que deseja aderir ao INOVAR-AUTO. Constatou-se que uma das maiores dificuldades da aplicação das Opções Reais é a modelagem dos fatores de riscos decorrentes das incertezas. As fontes de incerteza modeladas neste trabalho são as associadas à quantidade de carros vendidos no país, à participação da empresa no mercado (market share), ao preço do carro e à taxa de juros. A Simulação de Monte Carlo permite integrar os efeitos dessas incertezas na estimação da volatilidade do projeto. Como produto final deste trabalho, obteve-se um quadro que resume que os métodos tradicionais de análises de investimentos (VPL e TIR) não são suficientes para a avaliação de projetos em segmentos com elevado grau de incerteza como o automotivo. / The automotive industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic context - in 2006, the country was the tenth in the global automotive ranking and in late 2010, the fourth. The industry moves a huge supply chain that includes manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, auto repair shops, tire repair, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Aware of this importance, the Federal Government, by the Law No. 12,715 of December 17, 2012 established the Incentive Program for Technological Innovation and Supply Chain Densification of Motor Vehicles - INOVAR-AUTO, in order to support the technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and the quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. However, companies adopt such policies when it is possible to evaluate the gains from its implementation. Thus, this work presents the application of the Real Options Theory (ROT) in the evaluation of this public policy. The approach models the decision making as an option of an American company with a project to install a vehicle production unit using INOVAR-AUTO. It was found that one of the greatest difficulties of the application of Real Options Theory is the modeling of risk factors arising from uncertainties. The uncertainty sources modeled in this paper are those associated to the number of sold cars in the country, to company’s market share, the car price and to the interest rate. The Monte Carlo simulation allows to integrating the effects of these uncertainties in the estimation of the project volatility. As a final product of this work, we obtained a table that summarizes the traditional methods of investment analysis (NPV and IRR) are not sufficient to assess projects in sectors with a high degree of uncertainty as automotive industry.

The existing environmental threats and the ever increasing global dependence on electric power highlight the importance of producing power in a sustainable manner. In accordance, it is vital to attract investments in electricity generation projects based on renewable energy sources, also called renewable energy projects (REP). This poses a challenge, as REP tend to be less financially competitive than their fossil fuel based counterparts. Moreover, the power grid has to be upgraded to integrate large amounts of RESs in an efficient and economic manner. An appealing alternative to enhance the financial appealing of REP is to improve the techniques used for their assessment. These tools produce robust and economically sound assessments, but tend to undervalue REP and other projects under uncertainty, as they neglect the flexibility of the projects to be adjusted in response to uncertainty. This can be corrected by extending the tools with the aid of real options (RO) theory. RO theory can be used to extend assessment techniques to value flexibility derived from the projects, their management, and even their environment, which can be used to enhance the financial value of REP in the changing power sector. In addition, the scope of RO theory is increasing to address flexibility in the design of the projects. Therefore, the theory can drive investments in REP and motivate the design of more profitable projects. This research project seeks to analyse the potential of RO theory to increase the financial worth of different types of REP in the current and changing power sector. The novelties of this research are that it expands RO theory by addressing the flexibility within the design of the projects, the potential of RO theory to manage uncertainties that are exclusive to the projects or typical in the power sector, and other relevant areas of research interest. The research produced several RO methodologies to model the planning, operation, and design of hydropower projects, wind power projects, and solar photovoltaic projects in existing power sector environments and environments characterised by high penetration of RESs and consumers with demand response capabilities. The results demonstrate the applicability of RO theory to enhance the financial value of different types of REP under a wide range of circumstances.

In 2014, venture capitalist (VC) investments were as high as $87 billion for startup companies. Furthermore, although more than 50% of venture-backed startups failed, return on investment came from only 10% of the investee companies. The high VC investment dollars and the low number of profitable VC-backed startups suggest challenges that VCs might experience in identifying profitable startups. Using a real options theory conceptual framework, the purpose of this multiple case study was to explore strategies VCs in the southeastern United States use to identify profitable startups. Data collection included observation and archival document reviews and involved semistructured interviews of 11 VC participants in 8 firms who participated in assessing startups that led to an initial public offering or buyout within the past 5 years. Data analysis involved a coding technique for extrapolating themes. Several themes emerged including due diligence and investor involvement, reduction of information asymmetry, human capital management, environment and market forces, startup experience matching investor strategy, trust building, investment timing, and VC market dynamics. Findings from this study might contribute to positive social change by assisting VCs, entrepreneurs, and capital investors in identifying startups that lead to sustainable and profitable businesses. Sustainable and profitable businesses may result in stable jobs in the local community. Beneficiaries of this research include VCs, entrepreneurs, and capital investors.

O processo de avaliação de empresas por modelos e técnicas formais tem por objetivo nortear a gestão e os grupos de interessados quanto à tomada de decisão ótima. Em geral, no processo de avaliação estes modelos são utilizados seguindo pressupostos acerca do valor dos benefícios da firma, dando a conotação de que o valor do negócio é o valor destes benefícios. Em empresas que atuam em mercados com alta competitividade e elevado nível de desenvolvimento e emprego de tecnologias e inovações, a utilização isolada de técnicas focadas em benefícios dos negócios atuais se mostram inadequadas para avaliar a habilidade da organização na resposta às variáveis mercadológicas. Sob este prisma, as vantagens advindas de estratégias competitivas e minimização das possibilidades de perdas do negócio, principalmente conquistadas através de estratégias de flexibilização e de geração de oportunidades de novos negócios se mostram importantes direcionadores de valor. O valor gerado por oportunidades e flexibilidades em empresas de telecomunicações é o foco da presente pesquisa que objetiva fundamentar em suas discussões e testes a viabilidade de incorporação do modelo de opções reais no processo de avaliação das empresas do setor, partindo do pressuposto de que o mercado, visualizando a importância das estratégias de gestão dos investimentos e da estrutura da empresa para o seu sucesso na geração de valor, remuneram estas organizações, atribuindo o valor de acordo com suas expectativas. Foram testados os modelos de efeitos fixos e aleatórios de dados em painel para verificar a significância das variáveis explicativas geradoras de valor potencial de opções reais. Os testes demonstram significância estatística das variáveis, embasando o modelo. Não obstante, a pesquisa posiciona estudos e levantamentos teóricos acerca dos modelos de avaliação abordados para contextualizar a utilidade do modelo de opções reais em processos de avaliação, bem como destaca a aplicabilidade procedimental do modelo de opções reais em conjunto com a técnica de fluxo de caixa descontado na avaliação de empresas do setor. Seus objetivos de discussão e averbação da aplicabilidade da teoria são alcançados, dado o conjunto de métodos empíricos e ilustrativos de sua técnica. / The process of business valuation for formal models and techniques aims to guide the management and stakeholder groups as to the optimal decision-making. In general, in the evaluating process these models are used following assumptions about the value of the firm benefits, giving the connotation that business value is the value of these benefits. In companies that operate in markets with high competitiveness and high level of development and use of technologies and innovations, the isolated use of techniques focused on the benefits of today\'s businesses have shown inadequate to assess the organization ability in response to marketing variables. From that perspective, the benefits arising from competitive strategies and minimization of business loss chances, mainly won through relaxation strategies and generating new business opportunities to show important value drivers. The value generated by the opportunities and flexibilities in the firm\'s telecommunications companies is the focus of this research that aims to support in their discussions and tests the feasibility of incorporating the real options model in the evaluation of companies in the sector, on the assumption that the market, seeing the importance of strategies for investment management and company structure for its success in generating value, remunerate these organizations, assigning the value according to your expectations. Models of fixed and random effects panel data were tested to assess the significance of the explanatory variables generating potential value of real options. The tests demonstrate statistical significance of the variables, basing the model. Nevertheless, this research positions studies and theoretical surveys about the valuation models addressed in order to contextualize the usefulness of the real options model in evaluation processes, and highlights the applicability of the real options model procedural in conjunction with the technique of cash flow discounted in evaluating companies. The goals for discussion and annotation of the theory applicability are achieved, given the set of empirical and illustrative of this technique.

O processo de avaliação de empresas por modelos e técnicas formais tem por objetivo nortear a gestão e os grupos de interessados quanto à tomada de decisão ótima. Em geral, no processo de avaliação estes modelos são utilizados seguindo pressupostos acerca do valor dos benefícios da firma, dando a conotação de que o valor do negócio é o valor destes benefícios. Em empresas que atuam em mercados com alta competitividade e elevado nível de desenvolvimento e emprego de tecnologias e inovações, a utilização isolada de técnicas focadas em benefícios dos negócios atuais se mostram inadequadas para avaliar a habilidade da organização na resposta às variáveis mercadológicas. Sob este prisma, as vantagens advindas de estratégias competitivas e minimização das possibilidades de perdas do negócio, principalmente conquistadas através de estratégias de flexibilização e de geração de oportunidades de novos negócios se mostram importantes direcionadores de valor. O valor gerado por oportunidades e flexibilidades em empresas de telecomunicações é o foco da presente pesquisa que objetiva fundamentar em suas discussões e testes a viabilidade de incorporação do modelo de opções reais no processo de avaliação das empresas do setor, partindo do pressuposto de que o mercado, visualizando a importância das estratégias de gestão dos investimentos e da estrutura da empresa para o seu sucesso na geração de valor, remuneram estas organizações, atribuindo o valor de acordo com suas expectativas. Foram testados os modelos de efeitos fixos e aleatórios de dados em painel para verificar a significância das variáveis explicativas geradoras de valor potencial de opções reais. Os testes demonstram significância estatística das variáveis, embasando o modelo. Não obstante, a pesquisa posiciona estudos e levantamentos teóricos acerca dos modelos de avaliação abordados para contextualizar a utilidade do modelo de opções reais em processos de avaliação, bem como destaca a aplicabilidade procedimental do modelo de opções reais em conjunto com a técnica de fluxo de caixa descontado na avaliação de empresas do setor. Seus objetivos de discussão e averbação da aplicabilidade da teoria são alcançados, dado o conjunto de métodos empíricos e ilustrativos de sua técnica. / The process of business valuation for formal models and techniques aims to guide the management and stakeholder groups as to the optimal decision-making. In general, in the evaluating process these models are used following assumptions about the value of the firm benefits, giving the connotation that business value is the value of these benefits. In companies that operate in markets with high competitiveness and high level of development and use of technologies and innovations, the isolated use of techniques focused on the benefits of today\'s businesses have shown inadequate to assess the organization ability in response to marketing variables. From that perspective, the benefits arising from competitive strategies and minimization of business loss chances, mainly won through relaxation strategies and generating new business opportunities to show important value drivers. The value generated by the opportunities and flexibilities in the firm\'s telecommunications companies is the focus of this research that aims to support in their discussions and tests the feasibility of incorporating the real options model in the evaluation of companies in the sector, on the assumption that the market, seeing the importance of strategies for investment management and company structure for its success in generating value, remunerate these organizations, assigning the value according to your expectations. Models of fixed and random effects panel data were tested to assess the significance of the explanatory variables generating potential value of real options. The tests demonstrate statistical significance of the variables, basing the model. Nevertheless, this research positions studies and theoretical surveys about the valuation models addressed in order to contextualize the usefulness of the real options model in evaluation processes, and highlights the applicability of the real options model procedural in conjunction with the technique of cash flow discounted in evaluating companies. The goals for discussion and annotation of the theory applicability are achieved, given the set of empirical and illustrative of this technique.

The telecommunications market in Brazil has been extremely competitive since the privatization of Telebrás in 1998, especially the mobile phone sector. Brazilians own approximately 250 million mobile phones in a country with an estimated population of 200 million people. In 2012, due to these circumstances, Brazil\'s telecommunications regulator (ANATEL) auctioned off the rights to use the 2,500 MHz radio frequency bands. This granted the top bidders the right to operate mobile services using the fourth generation of mobile phone communication technology standards (4G). The technology enables mobile broadband to access the Internet. Auction participants offered R$ 2,93 billion for the right to exploit this frequency band for 15 years. These companies also committed an estimated R$ 20 billion over 7 years to set up the 4G mobile networks throughout Brazil. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasiability of investments in 4G mobile technology in accordance with the Bid Nr. 004/2012/PVCP/SPV ANATEL ( 4G Auction ) by using traditional methods of investment appraisal and the real options, associated with the Monte Carlo simulation. Even though the discounted cash flow method is commonly adopted in the analysis of investments in real assets, this technique is limited due to the fact that it does not allow for the valuation of managerial flexibility present in many projects. This research evaluated the projects of the four companies - Claro, Vivo, TIM and Oi - that won the right to operate the service throughout the national territory. The evaluation process was based on the four-step approach of CA (Copeland and Antikarov). The results indicate that when traditional metrics for evaluating investments were applied, nearly all these projects were unfeasible since they presented low probabilities of achieving a positive NPV (Net Present Value). Nevertheless, the adoption of the real options analysis indicated that positive results can be expected in 80% of the cases. This work was further complemented with an analysis of the risk and return, as well as a study of the effects of volatility on the option value. / O mercado de telecomunicações no Brasil tem se mostrado extremamente competitivo desde que ocorreram as privatizações do sistema Telebrás em 1998, sobretudo na telefonia móvel que em 2012 atingiu a marca de 250 milhões de celulares habilitados para uma população estimada em menos de 200 milhões de pessoas. Nesse cenário em 2012 a Anatel promoveu o leilão da faixa de frequência de 2.500 MHz concedendo o direito de exploração dos serviços de telefonia móvel usando tecnologia de quarta geração ou 4G, que possibilita acesso móvel em banda larga à Internet. Os participantes da licitação ofereceram R$ 2,93 bilhões pelo direito de explorar esta faixa de frequência durante 15 anos e estima-se que os investimentos para implantar as redes móveis 4G em todo o Brasil alcancem a cifra dos R$ 20 bilhões em 7 anos. O propósito deste estudo foi avaliar a viabilidade dos investimentos no projeto de telefonia móvel 4G no Brasil desenvolvido a partir do edital de licitação número 004/2012/PVCP/SPV da ANATEL. Para tanto foram usados os métodos tradicionais de avaliação de investimentos e a Teoria das Opções Reais em conjunto com as técnicas de simulação de Monte Carlo. Embora o método do fluxo de caixa descontado seja o mais usado na análise de investimentos em ativos reais, ele é limitado por não permitir a valoração das flexibilidades gerenciais presente na maioria dos projetos. Para alcançar esse objetivo essa pesquisa se propôs a avaliar os projetos das quatro empresas que adquiriram o direito de explorar o serviço em todo o território nacional, ou seja, Claro, Vivo, TIM e Oi. O processo de avaliação foi baseado no método CA (Copeland e Antikarov) de quatro passos. Os resultados mostraram que na avaliação usando os métodos tradicionais praticamente todos os projetos foram inviáveis ao apresentarem baixas probabilidades de atingirem VPL (Valor Presente Líquido) positivo, enquanto a análise por opções reais elevou a avaliação dos mesmos para patamares acima de 80% de se obterem resultados positivos. O trabalho ainda foi complementado com uma análise do risco e retorno do projeto, bem como um estudo dos efeitos da volatilidade sobre o valor das opções. / Mestre em Administração

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:31:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcio Barros Souza.pdf: 3064012 bytes, checksum: bbb11da9182e6b1ff4c1aee75ce7f916 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-07 / The aim of this study was to develop an analytical model of full stochastic programming, grounded on the Real Options Theory (ROT) for the analysis of the value of the investment opportunity in project to implement Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system. The proposed model is a modified extension of Wu et al. (2008), incorporating the possibility of a catastrophic event (or contingent event), as discussed in Schwartz and Zozaya-Gorostiza (2003). While a programming and stochastic optimization model, it is inserted in the context of Operational Research, whose nature, as the name implies, is the use of analytical scientific method to address operational problems in organizations. The managerial flexibility of the model was treated as a real option, in which there is the right, but not the obligation, to perform an action (for instance, postpone, expand, contract or abandon. The strategic decision concerned the possibility of purchasing and implementing the system as a whole package or through modules. Revenue estimates for the project were modeled as a stochastic process of the Geometric Brownian Motion type, while costs were modeled as a function of the characteristics of each cash outflow type, resulting in the choice of a probability distribution. The model uses Latin hypercube simulation to obtain the expected values of the parameters for generating a decision tree that guides the optimization process. Given the parameters and constraints of the model, the optimization searches for the optimal investment decision. Considering the model configuration and parameters adopted, the figures indicate that the process of purchasing and implementing the modules result in an optimal decision for the value of the investment opportunity. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the parameters allowed the identification of the most sensitive parameters in the model that need careful analysis, to avoid distortions in the projections. / Neste trabalho, objetivou-se a desenvolver um modelo analítico de programação estocástica inteira, fundamentada pela Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR), para a análise do valor da oportunidade de investimento em projeto para implementação de sistema ERP - Enterprise Resource Planning. O modelo proposto é uma extensão modificada de Wu et. al. (2008), com a incorporação da possibilidade de ocorrência de um evento catastrófico (ou contingente), como em Schwartz e Zozaya-Gorostiza (2003). Enquanto modelo de programação estocástica e de otimização, está inserido no contexto de Pesquisa Operacional, cuja natureza, como o próprio nome indica, é o uso do método científico analítico para tratar dos problemas operacionais nas organizações. A flexibilidade gerencial do projeto é tratada como uma opção real, na qual há um direito, mas não uma obrigação, para realizar uma ação (por exemplo, adiar, expandir, contrair ou abandonar). A decisão estratégica relacionou-se com a possibilidade de comprar e implementar o sistema pelo pacote completo, ou então por módulos. As estimativas de receitas do projeto foram modeladas como um processo estocástico do tipo Movimento Browniano Geométrico, enquanto os custos foram modelados em função da particularidade de cada tipo de saída de caixa, resultando na escolha de uma distribuição de probabilidades. O modelo utiliza simulação por hipercubos latinos para obtenção dos valores esperados dos parâmetros, os quais alimentam uma árvore de decisão que baliza o processo de otimização. Dados os parâmetros e as restrições do modelo, a otimização busca a decisão ótima de investimento. Os resultados obtidos, considerando a configuração do modelo e os parâmetros adotados, apontam que a compra e implementação por módulos resulta em uma decisão ótima para o valor da oportunidade de investimento. Ademais, a análise de sensibilidade dos parâmetros possibilitou a identificação dos parâmetros mais sensíveis no modelo e que precisam ser analisados com atenção, para evitar distorções nas projeções.