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Prediçao de distribuíção de espécies arbustivo-arbóreas no sul do Brasil / Prediction of distribution of shrub and trees species in southern BrazilVerdi, Marcio January 2013 (has links)
Em vista das mudanças ambientais em nível global, disponibilizar informações ecológicas e buscar uma melhor compreensão dos fatores e processos que moldam a distribuição de espécies, é uma iniciativa importante para o planejamento de ações de conservação. Neste contexto, a importância e carência de informações sobre a distribuição geográficas das espécies nos motivaram a predizer a distribuição potencial de arbustos e árvores das famílias Lauraceae e Myrtaceae na Floresta Atlântica, no sul do Brasil. Modelos lineares generalizados (GLM) foram usados para ajustar modelos preditivos com os registros de ocorrência de 88 espécies em função de variáveis ambientais. As variáveis preditoras foram selecionadas com base no menor critério de informação de Akaike corrigido. Nós avaliamos o desempenho dos modelos usando o método de validação cruzada (10-fold) para calcular a habilidade estatística verdadeira (TSS) e a área sob a curva característica do operador receptor (AUC). Nós usamos GLM para testar a influência da área de ocorrência estimada, do número de registros das espécies e da complexidade dos modelos sobre a TSS e a AUC. Nossos resultados mostraram que as variáveis climáticas governam amplamente a distribuição de espécies, mas as variáveis que captam as variações ambientais locais são relativamente importantes na área de estudo. A TSS foi significativamente influenciada pelo número de registros e complexidade dos modelos, enquanto a AUC sofreu com o efeito de todos os três fatores avaliados. A interação entre estes fatores é uma questão importante e a ser considerada em novas avaliações sobre ambas medidas e com diferentes técnicas de modelagem. Nossos resultados também mostraram que as distribuições de algumas espécies foram superestimadas e outras corresponderam bem com a ocorrência por nós conhecida. Efetivamente nossos resultados têm fundamentos para embasar novos levantamentos de campo, a avaliação de áreas prioritárias e planos de conservação, além de inferências dos efeitos de mudanças ambientais sobre as espécies da Mata Atlântica. / In view of environmental change on a global level, providing ecological information and getting a better understanding of the factors and processes that shape species distribution is an important initiative for planning conservation actions. In this context, the importance and lack of information about the geographical distribution of species motivated us to predict the potential species distribution of shrubs and trees of the family Lauraceae and Myrtaceae, in the Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil. Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to fit predictive models with records of occurrence of 88 species according to environmental variables. Predictor variables were selected based on the lowest corrected Akaike information criterion. We evaluate the performance of the models using the method of cross-validation (10-fold) to calculate the true skill statistic (TSS) and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). We used GLM to test the influence of the area of occurrence estimated, the number of records of the species and the complexity of the models on the TSS and AUC. Our results show that climatic variables largely govern the distribution of species, but the variables that capture the local environmental variations are relatively important in the study area. The TSS was significantly influenced by the number of records and complexity of models while the AUC suffered from the effect of all three evaluated factors. The interaction between these factors is an important issue and be considered for new reviews on both measures and with different modeling techniques. Our results also showed that the distributions of some species were overestimated and other corresponded well with the occurrence known to us. Indeed our results have foundations to support new field surveys, assessment of priority areas and conservation plans, and inferences of the effects of environmental change on species of the Atlantic Forest.
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Prediçao de distribuíção de espécies arbustivo-arbóreas no sul do Brasil / Prediction of distribution of shrub and trees species in southern BrazilVerdi, Marcio January 2013 (has links)
Em vista das mudanças ambientais em nível global, disponibilizar informações ecológicas e buscar uma melhor compreensão dos fatores e processos que moldam a distribuição de espécies, é uma iniciativa importante para o planejamento de ações de conservação. Neste contexto, a importância e carência de informações sobre a distribuição geográficas das espécies nos motivaram a predizer a distribuição potencial de arbustos e árvores das famílias Lauraceae e Myrtaceae na Floresta Atlântica, no sul do Brasil. Modelos lineares generalizados (GLM) foram usados para ajustar modelos preditivos com os registros de ocorrência de 88 espécies em função de variáveis ambientais. As variáveis preditoras foram selecionadas com base no menor critério de informação de Akaike corrigido. Nós avaliamos o desempenho dos modelos usando o método de validação cruzada (10-fold) para calcular a habilidade estatística verdadeira (TSS) e a área sob a curva característica do operador receptor (AUC). Nós usamos GLM para testar a influência da área de ocorrência estimada, do número de registros das espécies e da complexidade dos modelos sobre a TSS e a AUC. Nossos resultados mostraram que as variáveis climáticas governam amplamente a distribuição de espécies, mas as variáveis que captam as variações ambientais locais são relativamente importantes na área de estudo. A TSS foi significativamente influenciada pelo número de registros e complexidade dos modelos, enquanto a AUC sofreu com o efeito de todos os três fatores avaliados. A interação entre estes fatores é uma questão importante e a ser considerada em novas avaliações sobre ambas medidas e com diferentes técnicas de modelagem. Nossos resultados também mostraram que as distribuições de algumas espécies foram superestimadas e outras corresponderam bem com a ocorrência por nós conhecida. Efetivamente nossos resultados têm fundamentos para embasar novos levantamentos de campo, a avaliação de áreas prioritárias e planos de conservação, além de inferências dos efeitos de mudanças ambientais sobre as espécies da Mata Atlântica. / In view of environmental change on a global level, providing ecological information and getting a better understanding of the factors and processes that shape species distribution is an important initiative for planning conservation actions. In this context, the importance and lack of information about the geographical distribution of species motivated us to predict the potential species distribution of shrubs and trees of the family Lauraceae and Myrtaceae, in the Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil. Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to fit predictive models with records of occurrence of 88 species according to environmental variables. Predictor variables were selected based on the lowest corrected Akaike information criterion. We evaluate the performance of the models using the method of cross-validation (10-fold) to calculate the true skill statistic (TSS) and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). We used GLM to test the influence of the area of occurrence estimated, the number of records of the species and the complexity of the models on the TSS and AUC. Our results show that climatic variables largely govern the distribution of species, but the variables that capture the local environmental variations are relatively important in the study area. The TSS was significantly influenced by the number of records and complexity of models while the AUC suffered from the effect of all three evaluated factors. The interaction between these factors is an important issue and be considered for new reviews on both measures and with different modeling techniques. Our results also showed that the distributions of some species were overestimated and other corresponded well with the occurrence known to us. Indeed our results have foundations to support new field surveys, assessment of priority areas and conservation plans, and inferences of the effects of environmental change on species of the Atlantic Forest.
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Online Anomaly Detection on the Edge / Sekventiell anomalidetektering i nätverkskantenJirwe, Marcus January 2021 (has links)
The society of today relies a lot on the industry and the automation of factory tasks is more prevalent than ever before. However, the machines taking on these tasks require maintenance to continue operating. This maintenance is typically given periodically and can be expensive while sometimes requiring expert knowledge. Thus it would be very beneficial if one could predict when a machine needs maintenance and only employ maintenance as necessary. One method to predict when maintenance is necessary is to collect sensor data from a machine and analyse it for anomalies. Anomalies are usually an indicator of unexpected behaviour and can therefore show when a machine needs maintenance. Due to concerns like privacy and security, it is often not allowed for the data to leave the local system. Hence it is necessary to perform this kind of anomaly detection in an online manner and in an edge environment. This environment imposes limitations on hardware and computational ability. In this thesis we consider four machine learning anomaly detection methods that can learn and detect anomalies in this kind of environment. These methods are LoOP, iForestASD, KitNet and xStream. We first evaluate the four anomaly detectors on the Skoltech Anomaly Benchmark using their suggested metrics as well as the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. We also perform further evaluation on two data sets provided by the company Gebhardt. The experimental results are promising and indicate that the considered methods perform well at the task of anomaly detection. We finally propose some avenues for future work, such as implementing a dynamically changing anomaly threshold. / Dagens samhälle är väldigt beroende av industrin och automatiseringen av fabriksuppgifter är mer förekommande än någonsin. Dock kräver maskinerna som tar sig an dessa uppgifter underhåll för att forsätta arbeta. Detta underhåll ges typiskt periodvis och kan vara dyrt och samtidigt kräva expertkunskap. Därför skulle det vara väldigt fördelaktigt om det kunde förutsägas när en maskin behövde underhåll och endast göra detta när det är nödvändigt. En metod för att förutse när underhåll krävs är att samla in sensordata från en maskin och analysera det för att hitta anomalier. Anomalier fungerar ofta som en indikator av oväntat beteende, och kan därför visa att en maskin behöver underhåll. På grund av frågor som integritet och säkerhet är det ofta inte tillåtet att datan lämnar det lokala systemet. Därför är det nödvändigt att denna typ av anomalidetektering genomförs sekventiellt allt eftersom datan samlas in, och att detta sker på nätverkskanten. Miljön som detta sker i påtvingar begränsningar på både hårdvara och beräkningsförmåga. I denna avhandling så överväger vi fyra anomalidetektorer som med användning av maskininlärning lär sig och upptäcker anomalier i denna sorts miljö. Dessa metoder är LoOP, iForestASD, KitNet och xStream. Vi analyserar först de fyra anomalidetektorerna genom Skoltech Anomaly Benchmark där vi använder deras föreslagna mått samt ”Receiver Operating Characteristic”-kurvor. Vi genomför även vidare analys på två dataset som vi har tillhandhållit av företaget Gebhardt. De experimentella resultaten är lovande och indikerar att de övervägda metoderna presterar väl när det kommer till detektering av anomalier. Slutligen föreslår vi några idéer som kan utforskas för framtida arbete, som att implementera en tröskel för anomalidetektering som anpassar sig dynamiskt.
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Evaluation of Non-Contact Sampling and Detection of Explosives using Receiver Operating Characteristic CurvesYoung, Mimy 07 November 2013 (has links)
The growing need for fast sampling of explosives in high throughput areas has increased the demand for improved technology for the trace detection of illicit compounds. Detection of the volatiles associated with the presence of the illicit compounds offer a different approach for sensitive trace detection of these compounds without increasing the false positive alarm rate. This study evaluated the performance of non-contact sampling and detection systems using statistical analysis through the construction of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves in real-world scenarios for the detection of volatiles in the headspace of smokeless powder, used as the model system for generalizing explosives detection. A novel sorbent coated disk coined planar solid phase microextraction (PSPME) was previously used for rapid, non-contact sampling of the headspace containers. The limits of detection for the PSPME coupled to IMS detection was determined to be 0.5-24 ng for vapor sampling of volatile chemical compounds associated with illicit compounds and demonstrated an extraction efficiency of three times greater than other commercially available substrates, retaining >50% of the analyte after 30 minutes sampling of an analyte spike in comparison to a non-detect for the unmodified filters. Both static and dynamic PSPME sampling was used coupled with two ion mobility spectrometer (IMS) detection systems in which 10-500 mg quantities of smokeless powders were detected within 5-10 minutes of static sampling and 1 minute of dynamic sampling time in 1-45 L closed systems, resulting in faster sampling and analysis times in comparison to conventional solid phase microextraction-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (SPME-GC-MS) analysis. Similar real-world scenarios were sampled in low and high clutter environments with zero false positive rates. Excellent PSPME-IMS detection of the volatile analytes were visualized from the ROC curves, resulting with areas under the curves (AUC) of 0.85-1.0 and 0.81-1.0 for portable and bench-top IMS systems, respectively. Construction of ROC curves were also developed for SPME-GC-MS resulting with AUC of 0.95-1.0, comparable with PSPME-IMS detection. The PSPME-IMS technique provides less false positive results for non-contact vapor sampling, cutting the cost and providing an effective sampling and detection needed in high-throughput scenarios, resulting in similar performance in comparison to well-established techniques with the added advantage of fast detection in the field.
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Validating Machine and Human Decision-Making in Forensic Fire Debris AnalysisWhitehead, Frances A 01 January 2024 (has links) (PDF)
This work presents a background on the chemical complexity of fire debris analysis, including an ever-present matrix of pyrolysis products as the catalyst that led to the creation of the National Center for Forensic Science's Fire Debris Database. A selection of these 1,000+ casework-relevant ground truth samples was used to create two newly proposed analyst workflows to connect the current method of categorical reporting with evaluative reporting practices reflective of the strength of the evidence. Both workflows use linear sequential unmasking to help mitigate bias, a discrete scoring system for quantification of the analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to bridge together categorical and probabilistic reporting by indicating the optimum decision threshold the analysts are operating from when they make a decision. Both workflows also allow a machine-learning component to be included in evaluating the evidence and are practical methods for obtaining validated performances for human and machine decisions. The second workflow includes subjective logic, which provides a means of determining the uncertainty inherent to the opinion made by the analyst and the machine learning computational model. ‘Fuzzy categories' and an opinion triangle connect the opinion offered by the analyst given their perceived uncertainty to the ROC curve so a categorical decision can be made. For each workflow, three analysts independently assessed 20 randomly chosen samples from the Fire Debris Database and followed the ASTM E1618-19 standard fire debris analysis method. The resultant area under the ROC curve for each analyst for each workflow was 0.90 or higher, indicating that all were in the very good to excellent range for diagnostic classifiers, as was the machine learning model tested in the second workflow. Recommendations for implementing a performance validation workflow, how repetitive engagement can help the individual analyst and insights on using these for performance validation and training purposes are also included.
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