This dissertation consists of two chapters. The first chapter addresses the role of trade barriers in explaining differences in the relative prices of tradables across countries. The second chapter assesses the quantitative importance of changes in comparative advantage in explaining the changes in the compositions of exports and output in South Korea during its growth miracle. In the first chapter I quantitatively address the role of trade barriers in explaining the cross-country distribution of the price of nontradables relative to tradables. Relative prices of nontradables are higher in rich countries than in poor countries. The standard explanation for this is due to Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964), where, in each country, the relative price of nontradables is equal to the inverse of relative productivity, and relative productivity is higher in poor countries. I construct a multi-country model of trade in which countries face asymmetric trade barriers. There are many tradable goods and trade barriers determine the cross-country pattern of specialization across tradable goods. The realized pattern of specialization determines measured productivity in the tradables sector, which determines relative prices. Existing trade barriers account for half of the difference in relative prices between rich and poor countries. In the second chapter, I explore how the evolution of comparative advantage can explain the changes in the compositions of exports and output that occurred in South Korea during its growth miracle. From 1960 to 1995 manufacture's share in both exports and output increased. I embed a dynamic, multi-country model of trade into a three-sector model of structural change where agriculture, manufactures, and services are complementary in both consumption and production. I measure productivity growth, in each sector for each country, using a growth accounting procedure. I feed the productivity growth rates into the model and find that the increase in manufacture's share in exports and output are explained by a shift in comparative advantage. The model also matches other aspects of the compositions: the declines in both agriculture's and service's share in exports, and the decline in agriculture's share in output. Finally, the model tracks the composition of output for other countries.

Pretendeu-se, neste trabalho, avaliar os impactos do avanço do agronegócio brasileiro e da evolução de seus preços relativos no consumo de camadas diferentes da população rural e urbana no período de 1995 a 2010. A despeito do contínuo crescimento da produção, esses anos foram marcados por duas fases distintas: uma fase de decréscimo de preços relativos do agronegócio, que vai até o ano de 2006; e uma fase de alta de preços, que se estende deste ano até pelo menos 2010. Assumiu-se, que os vetores que afetam o padrão de consumo de bens e serviços das diversas parcelas da população resultam de uma combinação de choques de demanda (relacionados à evolução da renda real) e de oferta (que consideram o aumento da produção e da produtividade). O cálculo da variação de consumo per capita das distintas parcelas da população foi decomposto, primeiramente, em quatro efeitos distintos: efeito devido às variações dos preços de bens do agronegócio; efeito devido a alterações nos preços de bens dos demais setores; efeito da evolução do produto do agronegócio; e efeito devido à evolução do produto demais setores.Em seguida, os efeitos relacionados aos preços foram decompostos em uma parte devida ao efeito Marshall de substituição no consumo e outra parte devida a um efeito renda associado à variação da renda do consumidor enquanto produtor de bens de ambos os setores. Para obter tais resultados, foram necessárias estimativas das elasticidades-preço e renda de bens de ambos os setores, , que foram obtidas pelo modelo LA/AIDS com base nos dados da POF 2008-2009. Finalmente, foram obtidas as taxas de crescimento do consumo da população, que consideraram a evolução populacional no período em cada categoria por meio dos dados da PNAD. As modificações nos preços relativos exercem impacto importante no consumo da população como um todo. Foi verificado que variações de preço de produtos do agronegócio tende a afetar e sentido contrário o consumo da população rural especialmente a faixa de baixa renda (que obtém parte importante de sua renda no agronegócio) e no mesmo sentido o consumo da população urbana. / The intention of this study was to evaluate the impacts of the advance of agribusiness and the evolution of their relative prices in the consumption of different layers of the rural and urban population from 1995 to 2010. Despite the continuous growth in production, these years were marked by two distinct phases: a phase of relative price decrease of agribusiness, which goes by the year 2006, and an uptick in prices, extending from this year until at least 2010. It was assumed that the vectors that affect the pattern of consumption of goods and services in various segments of the population result from a combination of demand shocks (related to changes in real income) and supply shocks (considering the increase in production and productivity). The calculation of the variation in per capita consumption of the different segments of the population was decomposed, primarily, in four distinct effects: effect due to variations in the prices of goods agribusiness; effect due to changes in the prices of goods of other sectors; effect of the evolution of product agribusiness, and effect due to the evolution of the product other sectors. Then, the effects related to prices were decomposed in part due to the Marshall effect of substitution in consumption, and partly due to an income effect associated with the change in consumer income as a producer of goods of both sectors. To obtain these results, it was needed to estimate the income and price elasticities of goods from both sectors, which were obtained by the model LA/AIDS based on data from POF 2008-2009. Finally, it was obtained the growth rates of consumption of the population, considering the evolution of population in the period in each category through the PNAD. Changes in relative prices exert significant impact on consumption of the population as a whole. It was found that price changes of agribusiness products tends to affect consumption in the opposite direction of the rural population, especially the lower income bracket (which gets an important part of their income from agribusiness) and, in the same sense, the consumption of the urban population.

O objetivo desse estudo é avaliar a validade da Teoria da Paridade do Poder de Compra (PPC) no Brasil em sua recente experiência de regime de câmbio flutuante, 1999M01-2009M12. São empreendidas decomposições da taxa de câmbio real de forma a evidenciar o papel da taxa de câmbio nominal, dos preços de bens comercializáveis e não comercializáveis, e preços das exportações e importações. A validade da PPC é diretamente testada através de testes de cointegração. Os resultados apontaram que ambos os setores, dos comercializáveis e não comercializáveis, são relevantes nos desvios da taxa de câmbio real, mas que a fonte de desvios não estacionários da PPC está relacionada ao setor dos não comercializáveis, tendo-se, portanto, evidência favorável à validade da Teoria da PPC para o setor dos comercializáveis no Brasil durante o período. Na relação de cointegração do setor dos comercializáveis, a taxa de câmbio nominal se apresentou fracamente exógena e os índices de preços tiveram velocidades de ajustamento significativas, sendo maior para os preços externos. Esses resultados são consistentes com um cenário em que a determinação da taxa de câmbio nominal é dominada por fatores fora do escopo da PPC e os preços dos comercializáveis se ajustam à relação de equilíbrio. / The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity Theory (PPP) in Brazil during its recent experience of floating exchange rate regime, 1999M01- 2009M12. Real exchange rate decompositions are undertaken in order to highlight the role of nominal exchange rate, prices of tradable goods and relative prices of nontradable goods, and prices of exports and imports. The validity of PPP is directly tested through cointegration tests. The results have shown that both sectors are relevant for the deviations of the real exchange rate, but that the source of non-stationary deviations from PPP is related to the nontradable sector, and, therefore, there was favorable evidence for the validity of PPP theory for tradable goods sector in Brazil between 1999 and 2009. For the cointegration relationship of the tradable sector, the nominal exchange rate appeared to be weakly exogenous and the index prices presented significant speeds of adjustment, which was higher for foreign prices. These results are consistent with a scenario in which the nominal exchange rate determination is dominated by factors outside the scope of the PPP and the prices of tradable goods adjusts to the equilibrium relationship.

I use data from the National Football League (NFL) to analyze the impact of minimum salaries on an employee’s firm tenure, an employee’s career length, and an employer’s distribution of employee experience. The NFL has a salary structure in which the minimum salary a player can receive increases with the player’s years of experience. Salary schedules similar to the NFL’s exist in public education, Secret Service, Internal Revenue Service, other federal government agencies, the Episcopalian church, and unionized industries. Even though the magnitude of the salaries in the NFL differs from other industries, this study provides insight to the impact of this type of salary structure firm tenure, career length, and the experience distribution. In the first essay, I analyze the impact of minimum salaries on firm tenure and career length for six positional groups in the NFL, defensive backs, defensive linemen, linebackers, running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers. A major advantage of using NFL data is that I am able to control for a player’s productivity. I find statistically significant evidence that minimum salaries shorten firm tenure and career length when they require teams to increase a player’s base salary from year t to year t+1 or a player’s total compensation from year t to year t+1. In the second essay, I analyze the impact of minimum salaries on the experience distribution. I exploit the fact that the NFL’s minimum salary schedule causes the relative minimum price between two experience levels to change over time. This provides teams with an incentive to substitute away from the experience level whose relative minimum price becomes more expensive. I find evidence that when relative minimum prices change, the experience distribution changes.

Pretendeu-se, neste trabalho, avaliar os impactos do avanço do agronegócio brasileiro e da evolução de seus preços relativos no consumo de camadas diferentes da população rural e urbana no período de 1995 a 2010. A despeito do contínuo crescimento da produção, esses anos foram marcados por duas fases distintas: uma fase de decréscimo de preços relativos do agronegócio, que vai até o ano de 2006; e uma fase de alta de preços, que se estende deste ano até pelo menos 2010. Assumiu-se, que os vetores que afetam o padrão de consumo de bens e serviços das diversas parcelas da população resultam de uma combinação de choques de demanda (relacionados à evolução da renda real) e de oferta (que consideram o aumento da produção e da produtividade). O cálculo da variação de consumo per capita das distintas parcelas da população foi decomposto, primeiramente, em quatro efeitos distintos: efeito devido às variações dos preços de bens do agronegócio; efeito devido a alterações nos preços de bens dos demais setores; efeito da evolução do produto do agronegócio; e efeito devido à evolução do produto demais setores.Em seguida, os efeitos relacionados aos preços foram decompostos em uma parte devida ao efeito Marshall de substituição no consumo e outra parte devida a um efeito renda associado à variação da renda do consumidor enquanto produtor de bens de ambos os setores. Para obter tais resultados, foram necessárias estimativas das elasticidades-preço e renda de bens de ambos os setores, , que foram obtidas pelo modelo LA/AIDS com base nos dados da POF 2008-2009. Finalmente, foram obtidas as taxas de crescimento do consumo da população, que consideraram a evolução populacional no período em cada categoria por meio dos dados da PNAD. As modificações nos preços relativos exercem impacto importante no consumo da população como um todo. Foi verificado que variações de preço de produtos do agronegócio tende a afetar e sentido contrário o consumo da população rural especialmente a faixa de baixa renda (que obtém parte importante de sua renda no agronegócio) e no mesmo sentido o consumo da população urbana. / The intention of this study was to evaluate the impacts of the advance of agribusiness and the evolution of their relative prices in the consumption of different layers of the rural and urban population from 1995 to 2010. Despite the continuous growth in production, these years were marked by two distinct phases: a phase of relative price decrease of agribusiness, which goes by the year 2006, and an uptick in prices, extending from this year until at least 2010. It was assumed that the vectors that affect the pattern of consumption of goods and services in various segments of the population result from a combination of demand shocks (related to changes in real income) and supply shocks (considering the increase in production and productivity). The calculation of the variation in per capita consumption of the different segments of the population was decomposed, primarily, in four distinct effects: effect due to variations in the prices of goods agribusiness; effect due to changes in the prices of goods of other sectors; effect of the evolution of product agribusiness, and effect due to the evolution of the product other sectors. Then, the effects related to prices were decomposed in part due to the Marshall effect of substitution in consumption, and partly due to an income effect associated with the change in consumer income as a producer of goods of both sectors. To obtain these results, it was needed to estimate the income and price elasticities of goods from both sectors, which were obtained by the model LA/AIDS based on data from POF 2008-2009. Finally, it was obtained the growth rates of consumption of the population, considering the evolution of population in the period in each category through the PNAD. Changes in relative prices exert significant impact on consumption of the population as a whole. It was found that price changes of agribusiness products tends to affect consumption in the opposite direction of the rural population, especially the lower income bracket (which gets an important part of their income from agribusiness) and, in the same sense, the consumption of the urban population.

O objetivo desse estudo é avaliar a validade da Teoria da Paridade do Poder de Compra (PPC) no Brasil em sua recente experiência de regime de câmbio flutuante, 1999M01-2009M12. São empreendidas decomposições da taxa de câmbio real de forma a evidenciar o papel da taxa de câmbio nominal, dos preços de bens comercializáveis e não comercializáveis, e preços das exportações e importações. A validade da PPC é diretamente testada através de testes de cointegração. Os resultados apontaram que ambos os setores, dos comercializáveis e não comercializáveis, são relevantes nos desvios da taxa de câmbio real, mas que a fonte de desvios não estacionários da PPC está relacionada ao setor dos não comercializáveis, tendo-se, portanto, evidência favorável à validade da Teoria da PPC para o setor dos comercializáveis no Brasil durante o período. Na relação de cointegração do setor dos comercializáveis, a taxa de câmbio nominal se apresentou fracamente exógena e os índices de preços tiveram velocidades de ajustamento significativas, sendo maior para os preços externos. Esses resultados são consistentes com um cenário em que a determinação da taxa de câmbio nominal é dominada por fatores fora do escopo da PPC e os preços dos comercializáveis se ajustam à relação de equilíbrio. / The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity Theory (PPP) in Brazil during its recent experience of floating exchange rate regime, 1999M01- 2009M12. Real exchange rate decompositions are undertaken in order to highlight the role of nominal exchange rate, prices of tradable goods and relative prices of nontradable goods, and prices of exports and imports. The validity of PPP is directly tested through cointegration tests. The results have shown that both sectors are relevant for the deviations of the real exchange rate, but that the source of non-stationary deviations from PPP is related to the nontradable sector, and, therefore, there was favorable evidence for the validity of PPP theory for tradable goods sector in Brazil between 1999 and 2009. For the cointegration relationship of the tradable sector, the nominal exchange rate appeared to be weakly exogenous and the index prices presented significant speeds of adjustment, which was higher for foreign prices. These results are consistent with a scenario in which the nominal exchange rate determination is dominated by factors outside the scope of the PPP and the prices of tradable goods adjusts to the equilibrium relationship.

A expansão do milho no Brasil é decorrente da mudança espaço-temporal da produção, que cria uma nova perspectiva de análise para a relação entre os preços do milho e da soja. Nesse contexto, este estudo objetiva analisar o transbordamento de risco entre esses mercados, por meio de três ensaios independentes, porém complementares. No primeiro ensaio, realiza-se uma revisão de literatura sobre a disseminação de riscos, com foco no mercado agrícola. Como estratégia de pesquisa realiza-se um levantamento de estudos publicados sobre os termos transmissão, transbordamento e contágio, que são utilizados de forma intercambiável pela literatura e que sintetizam os desdobramentos recentes no tocante à disseminação ou propagação de riscos entre mercados. No segundo ensaio, pretende-se identificar o contágio de preços dos mercados físicos e futuros de soja para o mercado de milho, com a utilização dos modelos de correlação condicional dinâmica. Os resultados indicam tanto a influência da crise financeira global de 2008 na relação entre os preços desses grãos, como mudanças nos padrões de correlação condicional entre o milho e a soja, principalmente em períodos de adversidades climáticas. Por fim, os maiores patamares de correlação condicional ocorrem na relação entre os preços físicos desses produtos, demonstrando que os agentes utilizam o conteúdo informacional presente nos preços de commodities correlatas em sua avaliação de risco. No terceiro ensaio, o transbordamento de risco é avaliado em termos de mudanças nos preços relativos de milho e soja em seus mercados físicos domésticos e futuros internacionais. Para esse fim, utiliza-se o modelo markoviano para identificar as mudanças de regime na relação de preços entre essas commodities e seu efeito sobre a estratégia de hedge. Os resultados sugerem que o comportamento das razões de preços no mercado físico doméstico e no mercado futuro externo divergem a partir de 2012. As mudanças nos regimes de preço no mercado doméstico refletem com mais intensidade o comportamento sazonal das duas safras de milho cultivadas ao longo do ano, enquanto que no setor externo, estão mais associadas às adversidades climáticas. Em termos de estratégias de hegde, a B3 consegue captar melhor o rearranjo de preços no mercado doméstico, apresentando uma elevação da razão ótima de hegde no regime de baixa (preços de soja e milho estão mais próximos). Resultado similar é obtido na CME, quando a mudança de regime de preços ocorre na razão de preços futuros. Em síntese, os resultados desse estudo evidenciam que a gestão de risco de preços não se limita apenas aos fundamentos e características de um mercado específico. Destaca-se assim a importância de se identificar fatores exógenos, presentes ou identificáveis em commodities correlatas, aperfeiçoando a estratégia de gestão de risco de preços. / The expansion of corn in Brazil is due to the spatio-temporal change in production, which creates a new perspective analysis for the price relationship between corn and soybeans. This study aims to analyze the risk of spillover between corn and soybeans markets, through three independent but complementary essays. In the first essay, a literature review on the spread of risks is carried out, focusing on the agricultural market. As a research strategy, carried out a survey of published studies on the subjects - transmission, spillover and contagion - which are used interchangeably in the literature, and summarizing the recent developments regarding the risk propagation across markets. In the second essay, we intend to identify the contagion of prices of spot and futures soybean prices for the corn market, with the use of dynamic conditional correlation models. The results indicate both the influence of the global financial crisis of 2008 on the relationship between prices of these grains and changes in the conditional correlation patterns between corn and soybeans, especially in periods of climatic adversity. Finally, the highest levels of conditional correlation occur in the relationship between the spot prices of these products, demonstrating that in their risk assessment, the agents use the informational content present in the prices of related commodities. In the third essay, risk of spillover is assessed in terms of changes in relative prices of corn and soybeans in the spot and futures markets. For this purpose, the Markov model is used to identify the regime change in the price relationship between these commodities and their effect on the hedging strategy. The results suggest that, as of 2012, the behavior of the price ratios in the domestic spot market differs from the behavior of the price ratio in the external futures market. Changes in price regimes in the domestic market respond more intensely to seasonal behavior of the two corn crops grown throughout the year, while in the external market, they are more associated with climatic adversities. In terms of hedge strategies, the B3 commodity exchange can better capture the rearrangement of prices in the domestic market, presenting an elevation of the optimal hegde ratio in the low regime (soybean and corn prices are closer). A similar result is obtained in CME, when the change in price regime occurs in the ratio of future prices. In summary, the results of this study show that price risk management is not limited to the fundamentals and characteristics of a specific market. This highlights the importance of identifying exogenous factors present or identifiable in related commodities, improving the strategy of price risk management.

<p>The thesis presents annual price series for rye and barley in Östergötland during the period 1592-1735. Prices of wheat, oats, animal products, building materials, iron, nails, horse shoes and horse shoe nails from about the mid-17th century up to 1735 are also presented and analysed. New data has been excerpted from four hospitals and about fifty parishes in Östergötland. Prices from other provinces have also been excerpted for the study. This nes data is compared to already published prices from Sweden´s capital and from several provinces in central parts of the western national region of Sweden of that time. This area constituted Sweden´s core region. By linking the studies results to previous research, a description is made of the price developments for rye, butter and tallow up to 1775, that is, during Sweden´s period of great power and age of freedom. A principal result for the roughly 150 years primarily covered by the thesis is that it was chiefly the prices of rye and barley, the most important food at the time, that fluctuated in twelve cycles. Periodically there were large fluctuatons. The price cycles for corn (half rye, half barley) had an average amplitude of somewhat more than 100 % and a duration of 11 years on average. The prices were on average higher further north in the country. The causes of the price fluctuations are complex. During the major part of the period studied, Sweden was at war or in armistice period, which occupied a large part of the male population. Politically, increasingly great power was gradually concentrated to the king and autocracy was introduced, culminating at the end of Charles XII´s regency. The peasantry was burdened by high taxes and other onuses. After the middle of the 17th century the country was no longer self-subsistent but largely dependent on corn import. The production of foddstuffs decreased, partly through a smaller part of the country´s resources beeing used for production, and partly due to bad harvests. Recurrent epidemics reduced the population even up to the early 18th century.</p>

The thesis presents annual price series for rye and barley in Östergötland during the period 1592-1735. Prices of wheat, oats, animal products, building materials, iron, nails, horse shoes and horse shoe nails from about the mid-17th century up to 1735 are also presented and analysed. New data has been excerpted from four hospitals and about fifty parishes in Östergötland. Prices from other provinces have also been excerpted for the study. This nes data is compared to already published prices from Sweden´s capital and from several provinces in central parts of the western national region of Sweden of that time. This area constituted Sweden´s core region. By linking the studies results to previous research, a description is made of the price developments for rye, butter and tallow up to 1775, that is, during Sweden´s period of great power and age of freedom. A principal result for the roughly 150 years primarily covered by the thesis is that it was chiefly the prices of rye and barley, the most important food at the time, that fluctuated in twelve cycles. Periodically there were large fluctuatons. The price cycles for corn (half rye, half barley) had an average amplitude of somewhat more than 100 % and a duration of 11 years on average. The prices were on average higher further north in the country. The causes of the price fluctuations are complex. During the major part of the period studied, Sweden was at war or in armistice period, which occupied a large part of the male population. Politically, increasingly great power was gradually concentrated to the king and autocracy was introduced, culminating at the end of Charles XII´s regency. The peasantry was burdened by high taxes and other onuses. After the middle of the 17th century the country was no longer self-subsistent but largely dependent on corn import. The production of foddstuffs decreased, partly through a smaller part of the country´s resources beeing used for production, and partly due to bad harvests. Recurrent epidemics reduced the population even up to the early 18th century.

Introdução: A análise das principais tendências sobre consumo de alimentos tem apontado para a diminuição do consumo de alimentos in natura e o aumento do consumo de produtos industrializados. Este padrão de consumo pode levar à deficiências nutricionais e propiciar o surgimento de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis como a obesidade, dislipidemias e hipertensão. Os hábitos de consumo alimentar são afetados por uma grande variedade de fatores em que se destacam os econômicos, como preços relativos de alimentos e renda da população. Analisar a evolução dos preços relativos pode nos fornecer subsídios que possibilitam visualizar as tendências da relação entre os grupos alimentares. Objetivos: Analisar a evolução dos preços relativos dos grupos de alimentos a partir da elaboração dos números-índices dos preços relativos para o período de 1939 a 2010 com a utilização do banco de dados do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor da Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (IPC/FIPE). Metodologia: Para analisar a evolução dos preços relativos, foram utilizados o banco de preços da FIPE e as estruturas de ponderação da FIPE (1939-1988) e do IBGE (1989-2010), desagregadas por classe de renda a partir de 1972. O banco de preços foi organizado, sua consistência foi testada e os preços foram deflacionados pelo IPC/FIPE. Os preços relativos foram calculados e depois agregados por grupo alimentar. Por fim, o índice de preços foi calculado por duas fórmulas: Laspeyres e Konüs-Byushgens. Resultados: Comparou-se o índice geral da alimentação com os índices de cada grupo alimentar, e é possível notar que os grupos de gorduras, óleos, condimentos, açúcares e alimentos processados tiveram um seguimento de queda, por outro lado o índice dos alimentos in natura como frutas e verduras tiveram um ligeiro aumento. Os grupos de cereais, farinhas e massas e os grupos de carnes, leite e ovos tiveram uma tendência mais estável. Conclusão: A evolução dos preços relativos dos alimentos indica uma tendência desfavorável para uma alimentação saudável. / Introduction: Analyses of major trends on food consumption point out decreasing fresh food consumption and increasing processed food consumption. Processed food may cause nutritional deficiencies and ease onset of chronic non communicable diseases such as obesity, dyslipidemia and hypertension. Food consumption habits are affected by many factors, and the ones that stand out are the economic factors such as food relative price and population income. Studying the evolution of relative price may give us support to visualize the relationship trends among food groups. Objectives: Analyze the evolution of relative price of food groups by calculating the index-numbers of relative prices from 1939 to 2010 using the Consumer Price Index database from the Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Institute for Economic Research Foundation) (IPC/FIPE). Methodology: To analyze the evolution of relative price, we used FIPE´s price database and also the weight structure from FIPE (1939-1988) and from IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) (1989-2010), which were separated by income class since 1972. Price database was arranged, it´s consistency was tested and prices were deflated by IPC/FIPE. Relative prices were calculated and then associated by food group. Ultimately, price index was calculated according to: Laspeyres and Konüs-Byushgens. Results: When comparing total food index against indexes of each food group we noticed that the groups of fat, oil, spices, sugars and sweets and processed food showed decreased indexes whereas fresh foods such as fruits and vegetables showed swift increased indexes. Grain, flour and pasta groups along with meat, milk and egg groups showed a steadier trend. Conclusion: The evolution of relative price of food points out an unfavorable trend toward healthy eating.