The continued drive to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in order to mitigate climate change has led to an increase in demand for low-carbon energy sources, and the development of new technologies to harness the available energy in the wind, waves and tides. Many controversies surround these technologies, however, particularly with regards to their economic cost, environmental impacts and the implications of the variability of their output for security of the electricity supply. In order to make informed policy decisions on future developments of the electricity system, it is necessary to address these controversies and confirm the environmental, economic and social sustainability of these new renewable generators. This thesis specifically examines two key issues: whether new variable-output renewable energy generators actually deliver a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over their lifetimes, and whether they produce a viable energy return on energy investment. Although renewable energy sources are themselves ‘carbon free’, GHG emissions (and energy consumption) occur during the construction, maintenance and decommissioning of the generator infrastructure required to convert this energy into electricity. Furthermore, the variability of the output power from such generators has implications for the operation of the grid - there may be a requirement for additional reserve capacity and the increased part-loading of conventional plant is likely to reduce its operating efficiency. Carbon and energy paybacks are measures of the time required for a new renewable installation to offset these life cycle impacts. The work presented in this thesis examines both the life cycle impacts and the GHG emissions displacement of variable renewable generation, using Great Britain as a case study, in order to provide a basis for significantly more robust and reliable estimates of carbon and energy paybacks. The extensive literature survey concentrates on two key areas: current calculation methodologies and estimates for life cycle carbon and energy consumption of power generators; and the marginal emissions displacement of variable renewable generation. A detailed life cycle assessment of the Pelamis wave energy converter is presented, which sets the embodied carbon and energy in the context of the wider environmental impacts and includes an examination of the effect of different assumptions on the analysis results. In order to investigate the true emissions displacement of renewable generation, a historical analysis of real data from the National Grid was carried out, identifying the marginal displacement factor of wind power and taking into account the effect of the efficiency penalties of conventional plant. The findings of the analyses presented in this thesis are combined with information from the literature to examine the actual carbon and energy payback of existing renewable generation infrastructure on the British grid, and to provide detailed recommendations for future carbon and energy payback calculations.

Concerns over climate change impacts, goals to increase environmental sustainability, and questions about the reliability of fuel supply have led several countries to pursue the goal of increasing the share of renewable energy sources in their electricity grid. Portugal is one of the leading countries for wind electricity generation. Wind diffusion in Portugal started in the early 2000’s and in 2013 wind electricity generation accounted for more than 24% (REN 2013b). The large share of wind in Portuguese electricity production is a consequence of European Union (E.U.) mandates and national policies, mainly feed-in tariffs. Discussions on the appropriate policy design and level of incentive to promote renewable energy adoption and meet further renewable capacity goals are ongoing in Portugal, namely in what concerns the level and duration of feed-in tariffs that should be provided to independent power producers. This, in turn, raises the question of whether the past feed-in tariff levels were well designed to achieve the goals of a larger penetration of renewables in the Portuguese grid. The policies to induce wind adoption have led to a growth in wind installed capacity and share of electricity generated by wind in Portugal from less than 1% in 2000 to approximately 24% in 2013, but questions arise on their cost-effectiveness and whether alternative policy designs would have led to the same goal. vi The Portuguese wind feed-in tariffs are a guaranteed incentive which has varied between $85- $180/MWh over the last 20 years (ERSE 2011), and remained approximately constant since 2001 at $101/MWh. They are currently guaranteed for 20 years of production or 44GWh of electricity generation per MW installed (Diário da República 2013) - the longest period among countries with high wind electricity share. They do not incorporate any digression rate besides inflation, and are guaranteed for every unit of electricity fed to the grid. There are no power plants that have already been decommissioned despite being in operation for more than 20 years, favoring from new, detailed and hard-to-follow agreements in the legislation. All wind parks that are currently in operation have received feed-in tariffs since they connected to the grid, and are expected to keep receiving them at least until December 2019, and up to December 2036 - depending on year of connection and agreement under the most recent legislation (Diário da República 2013). The 2020 renewable energy goals in Portugal include having 6.8 GW of installed wind capacity, which implies the connection of 2 GW in the next years. If no further grid investments are made and wind capacity increases up to 100 MW to the connection point that we analyze, total annual electricity spill is likely to range the 20% to 40%. If the connection grid policy is designed to allow for wind spill, already ‘occupied’ connection points will be available to new entrants, lowering the total investment costs for new wind parks and increasing their profitability. This thesis is divided in three main parts: a first introductory section, a retrospective study of wind power in Portugal and a prospective analysis of the Portuguese wind power sector. The introductory section is a brief overview of the global renewable status, described in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 compile a retrospective study of wind power and the policies that have incentivized wind diffusion. We include in the discussion some references to the future wind vii power goals, but the results and policy recommendations are directed towards the existing connected wind power capacity. Chapter 2 is a qualitative piece that describes in detail the motivation behind the Portuguese wind power diffusion, the policy changes over the last 20 years and the mechanics of the remuneration mechanism, i.e. the feed-in tariff formula variables and the actors of the wind power sector. We compare the Portuguese feed-in tariff with other European feed-in tariff designs and conclude that the incentive is one of the highest in Europe, contributing to the current Portuguese electricity system deficit of about $2 billion. If feed-in tariffs keep being fixed and do not incorporate any market variation, and renewables are prioritized to meet electricity demand, feed-in tariff net support per unit of electricity might be higher when the wind blows the most because moments with high penetration of renewable power might be correlated with low market prices. We find that wind power penetration is correlated with net exports to Spain. This might result in a net cost to Portugal and a subsidy to Spanish electricity consumers per unit of electricity traded. In total terms, the resulting subsidy is higher when the wind resource is larger as well, as the total amount of electricity that is exported increases. In Chapter 3 we estimate the profits of wind power producers connected in Portugal between 1992 and 2010, and we recommend specific policy reforms that would lower spending in the form of wind feed-in tariffs. In particular, we assess four scenarios to decrease the level and/or period of the tariffs. We find that under the 2005 legislation - in which feed-in tariffs are granted for 15 years, all existing wind parks have positive NPVs varying between $0 and $12/MWh, when considering a 20-year lifetime. In fact, most of existing wind parks can stop receiving the feed-in tariff now (July 2014), and instead participate directly in the Iberian electricity market and still be profitable. Moreover, under the 2013 feed-in tariff reform that aims at decreasing the viii electricity system deficit, total spending will increase and wind parks will have larger profits than under the 2005 legislation. The motivation of keeping a high feed-in tariff comes from the need of liquidity that wind producers can provide immediately to the electricity system, which is required at this moment to comply with the E.U. economic agreements signed during the recession. Nevertheless, the environmental and energy dependency benefits of the Portuguese wind sector could have been achieved with as much as 25% less spending. Later on, we move to analyze future wind power additions. Chapter 4 compiles a prospective analysis of the wind power sector in Portugal. We focus on new wind parks that will connect to critical lines of the distribution grid in two regions of the country, as part of the national 2030 wind power goals. In particular, we assess the implications of a 100% guaranteed availability of grid power capacity. We find that from the investor perspective, it is more profitable to bear some risk of wind power curtailment, because of the avoided costs that would otherwise be incurred to upgrade the grid. We also find that since there is ample room in the distribution lines to connect more wind parks, very few grid upgrades can allow to highly increase the distributed wind capacity with a low risk of wind curtailment. Moreover, even in scenarios with ‘high curtailment’ of 5% to 20%, projects are profitable. Thus, the Portuguese government should consider a policy where the guaranteed feed-in would be removed, and further assess the possibility of limiting profitability of the existing and new wind projects by introducing curtailment. This work compiles two perspectives: first, a temporal perspective, in which past and future assessments of wind power diffusion are described. Second, a perspective on policy characterization, in which we present an assessment of two characteristics in the feed-in tariff design: the level/period of the tariff and the conditionality of prioritizing wind power over fossilix fuel resources with absence of risk of wind power curtailment. The level and period-related policy recommendations are considered for the existing wind parks, and are addressed mainly in Chapter 3. Considerations about grid capacity and introducing a risk of wind power curtailment are considered for subsequent wind power capacity additions, and are mainly considered in Chapter 4. In addition, notice that Chapter 3 focuses on avoiding excessive profitability of wind power parks while in Chapter 4 we analyze wind and grid capacity additions under the perspective of wind investors. Nevertheless, as we also find in Chapter 4 that profits are excessive, we do make recommendations that limit wind investor’s revenue. Portuguese decision maker should give serious consideration to revisions to the Portuguese feed-in tariff policy design. Most of the existing Portuguese wind parks to not need a feed-in tariff to be profitable. A value associated with the risk of wind power curtailment for subsequent additions should be incorporated in future policy design. We expect that this work will contribute to the Portuguese renewable policy in particular in light of Portugal’s 2020 and 2030 wind power goals.

<div>As on 2017, US Energy Information Administration (US EIA) claims that 50 % of the total US energy consumption are contributed by Commercial and Industrial (C&I) end-users.</div><div>Most of the energy consumption by these users is in the form of the electric power. Electric utilities, who usually supply the electric power, tend to care about the power consumption profiles of these users mainly because of the scale of consumption and their significant contribution</div><div>towards the system peak. Predicting and managing the peaks of C&I users is crucial both for the users themselves and for utility companies.</div><div>In this research, we aim to understand and predict the daily peaks of individual C&I users. To empirically understand the statistical characteristics of the peaks, we perform an extensive exploratory data analysis using a real power consumption time series dataset. To accurately predict the peaks, we investigate indirect and direct learning approaches. In the indirect approach, daily peaks are identified after forecasting the entire time series for the day whereas in the direct approach, the daily peaks are directly predicted based on the historical data available for different users during different days of the week. The machine learning models used in this research are based on Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).</div>

This research focuses on developing strategies for the optimal control of large-scale Combined Cooling, Heating and Power (CCHP) systems to meet electricity, heating, and cooling demands, and evaluating the cost savings potential associated with it. Optimal control of CCHP systems involves the determination of the mode of operation and set points to satisfy the specific energy requirements for each time period. It is very complex to effectively design optimal control strategies because of the stochastic behavior of energy loads and fuel prices, varying component designs and operational limitations, startup and shutdown events and many more. Also, for large-scale systems, the problem involves a large number of decision variables, both discrete and continuous, and numerous constraints along with the nonlinear performance characteristic curves of equipment. In general, the CCHP energy dispatch problem is intrinsically difficult to solve because of the non-convex, non-differentiable, multimodal and discontinuous nature of the optimization problem along with strong coupling to multiple energy components. <div><br></div><div>This work presents a solution methodology for optimizing the operation of a campus CCHP system using a detailed network energy flow model solved by a hybrid approach combining mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and nonlinear programming (NLP) optimization techniques. In the first step, MILP optimization is applied to a plant model that includes linear models for all components and a penalty for turning on or off the boilers and steam chillers. The MILP step determines which components need to be turned on and their respective load needed to meet the campus energy demand for the chosen time period (short, medium or long term) with one-hour resolution. Based on the solution from MILP solver as a starting point, the NLP optimization determines the actual hourly state of operation of selected components based on their nonlinear performance characteristics. The optimal energy dispatch algorithm provides operational signals associated with resource allocation ensuring that the systems meet campus electricity, heating, and cooling demands. The chief benefits of this formulation are its ability to determine the optimal mix of equipment with on/off capabilities and penalties for startup and shutdown, consideration of cost from all auxiliary equipment and its applicability to large-scale energy systems with multiple heating, cooling and power generation units resulting in improved performance. </div><div><br></div><div>The case-study considered in this research work is the Wade Power Plant and the Northwest Chiller Plant (NWCP) located at the main campus of Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, USA. The electricity, steam, and chilled water are produced through a CCHP system to meet the campus electricity, heating and cooling demands. The hybrid approach is validated with the plant measurements and then used with the assumption of perfect load forecasts to evaluate the economic benefits of optimal control subjected to different operational conditions and fuel prices. Example cost optimizations were performed for a 24-hour period with known cooling, heating, and electricity demand of Purdue’s main campus, and based on actual real-time prices (RTP) for purchasing electricity from utility. Three optimization cases were considered for analysis: MILP [no on/off switch penalty (SP)]; MILP [including on/off switch penalty (SP)] and NLP optimization. Around 3.5% cost savings is achievable with both MILP optimization cases while almost 10.7% cost savings is achieved using the hybrid MILP-NLP approach compared to the current plant operation. For the selected components from MILP optimization, NLP balances the equipment performance to operate at the state point where its efficiency is maximum while still meeting the demand. Using this hybrid approach, a high-quality global solution is determined when the linear model is feasible while still taking into account the nonlinear nature of the problem. </div><div><br></div><div>Simulations were extended for different seasons to examine the sensitivity of the optimization results to differences in electric, heating and cooling demand. All the optimization results suggest there are opportunities for potential cost savings across all seasons compared to the current operation of the power plant. For a large CCHP plant, this could mean significant savings for a year. The impact of choosing different time range is studied for MILP optimization because any changes in MILP outputs impact the solutions of NLP optimization. Sensitivity analysis of the optimized results to the cost of purchased electricity and natural gas were performed to illustrate the operational switch between steam and electric driven components, generation and purchasing of electricity, and usage of coal and natural gas boilers that occurs for optimal operation. Finally, a modular, generalizable, easy-to-configure optimization framework for the cost-optimal control of large-scale combined cooling, heating and power systems is developed and evaluated.</div>

Within the broad topical designation of “smart grid,” research in demand response, or demand-side management, focuses on investigating possibilities for electrically powered devices to adapt their power consumption patterns to better match the availability of intermittent renewable energy sources, especially wind. Devices such as battery chargers, heating and cooling systems, and computers can be controlled to change the time, duration, and magnitude of their power consumption while still meeting workload constraints such as deadlines and rate of throughput. This thesis presents a system by which a computer server, or multiple servers in a data center, can estimate the power imbalance on the electrical grid and use that information to dynamically change the power consumption as a service to the grid. Implementation on a testbed demonstrates the system with a hypothetical but realistic usage case scenario of an online video streaming service in which there are workloads with deadlines (high-priority) and workloads without deadlines (low-priority). The testbed is implemented with real servers, estimates the power imbalance from the grid frequency with real-time measurements of the live outlet, and uses a distributed, real-time algorithm to dynamically adjust the power consumption of the servers based on the frequency estimate and the throughput of video transcoder workloads. Analysis of the system explains and justifies multiple design choices, compares the significance of the system in relation to similar publications in the literature, and explores the potential impact of the system.

Many scenarios try to describe a future of supply and demand for electricity in Sweden. All the studied scenarios contain an increased amount of variable renewable energy (VRE) power production. VRE power sources, such as solar and wind power, depend on weather conditions, like solar irradiance and wind speed. There are also scenarios predicting an increased amount of plug-in electrical vehicles (PEVs), which charge their batteries from the electricity grid and thereby changes the consumption patterns. In a future power system with less nuclear power and increased VRE power production it is of interest to investigate the scenarios impact on supply and demand. The scenarios were compiled into cases for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. Simulations of each case VRE shares resulted in hourly power production data. Aggregating the data and comparing it with the consumption gives an understanding of the power and regulation need.  For Case 2030, a VRE share of 10.3% was calculated. The hydropower in Sweden could cover the power need for the whole year and even peaks in demand. For the larger shares of Case 2050 and 2100, hydropower was not able to cover peaks in power demand solemnly. The consumption of PEVs was small for all cases, reaching shares of 1.5% to 7.1%, compared to the consumption of all other sectors. Considering short-term statistics for wind power and the latest news that some of Sweden’s nuclear reactors might shut down in advance, it is possible that Case 2030 might occur sooner than predicted. If larger shares of VRE power have to be produced to meet consumer needs in the near future, grid-stabilizing measures has to be investigated.

The future smart grid is envisioned as a large scale cyber-physical system encompassing advanced power, computing, communications and control technologies. This work provides comprehensive accounts of the application with optimization methods, probability theory, commitment and dispatching technologies for addressing open problems in three emerging areas that pertain to the smart grid: unit commitment, service restoration problems in microgrid systems, and charging services for the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) markets. The work on the short-term scheduling problem in renewable-powered islanded microgrids is to determine the least-cost unit commitment (UC) and the associated dispatch, while meeting electricity load, environmental and system operating requirements. A novel probability-based concept, {\em probability of self-sufficiency}, is introduced to indicate the probability that the microgrid is capable of meeting local demand in a self-sufficient manner. Furthermore, we make the first attempt in approaching the mixed-integer UC problem from a convex optimization perspective, which leads to an analytical closed-form characterization of the optimal commitment and dispatch solutions. The extended research of the renewable-powered microgrid in the connection mode is the second part of this work. In this situation, the role of microgrid is changed to be either an electricity provider selling energy to the main grid or a consumer purchasing energy from the main grid. This interaction with the main grid completes work on the scheduling schemes. Third, a microgrid should be connected with the main grid most of the time. However, when a blackout of the main grid occurs, how to guarantee reliability in a microgrid as much as possible becomes an immediate question, which motivates us to investigate the service restoration in a microgrid, driven islanded by an unscheduled breakdown from the main grid. The objective is to determine the maximum of the expected restorative loads by choosing the best arrangement of the power network configurations immediately from the beginning of the breakdown all the way to the end of the island mode. Lastly, the work investigating the pricing strategy in future PHEV markets considers a monopoly market with two typical service classes. The unique characteristics of battery charging result in a piecewise linear quality of service model. Resorting to the concept of subdifferential, some theoretical results, including the existence and uniqueness of the subscriber equilibrium as well as the convergence of the corresponding subscriber dynamics are established. In the course of developing revenue-maximizing pricing strategies for both service classes, a general tradeoff has been identi ed between monetization and customer acquisition. / Graduate

Many sustainability concerns have led to a push for more sustainable electricity systems. Governments and utilities have responded to these pressures by making changes ranging from minor incremental adjustments to sweeping transformations. This dissertation is focused on determining how we can best understand such transitions of electricity systems and what possibilities exist for First Nations to participate in them. This dissertation involves case studies of three Canadian provinces – Nova Scotia, Ontario and Saskatchewan – based on a review of relevant documents and semi-structured interviews. The theoretical basis of this dissertation is derived from the sustainability transitions field and discourse coalition theory. The conclusion of this research is a helpful and robust integrated sustainability transition framework, which is developed by combining elements of the multi-level perspective (MLP) and technological innovation system (TIS) frameworks from the sustainability transitions field, and supplementing those elements with features from discourse coalition theory. This integrated sustainability transition framework can usefully explain the complex dynamics involved in transitions of electricity systems. The typology of transition pathways – distinguishing between the possibilities of reproduction, transformation, technological substitution, reconfiguration, and de-alignment/re-alignment – provides insights into the direction of the transition. The various TIS functions add a needed element of agency and provide insights into the rate of progress along the particular transition pathway. Discourse coalition theory adds a greater degree of agency by uncovering the political dynamics involved. By considering factors for successful First Nations participation as important TIS functions, the integrated sustainability transition framework presented in this dissertation helps explain the possibilities for First Nations participation. Successful First Nations participation is more likely to occur where governments are proudly engaging in reconciliation efforts and resurgence support and where they embrace distributed, clean energy projects and deliberately open up space for new actors to participate in the electricity sector. In order to achieve the momentum needed to take advantage of a window of opportunity to participate, First Nations need a project champion, stable governance, access to cash, partnerships with the private sector, and must ensure that the focus remains on sustainable development and delivery of benefits to the entire community.

Les problématiques énergétiques sont au sommet des préoccupations politiques dans de nombreux pays, du fait des enjeux environnementaux inhérents, du rôle moteur de l’énergie dans tous les secteurs économiques ainsi que des préoccupations relatives à l’indépendance énergétique. Cet intérêt est accru du fait de la part croissante des sources d’énergie renouvelables et intermittentes dans le mix énergétique mondial. En particulier, de par son fort potentiel et la volonté politique de soutien dont elle a bénéficié, l’énergie photovoltaïque est désormais un acteur clé dans la mutation énergétique mondiale, et son intégration dans le mix mondial doit être réalisée avec attention. Afin d’avoir une compréhension approfondie de la façon dont l’énergie solaire peut pénétrer et transformer le panorama énergétique, nous avons adopté une stratégie en trois niveaux avec une approche multidisciplinaire visant à apporter quelques réponses aux questions suivantes : i/ quel sera la position de l’énergie solaire dans le futur mix énergétique ?; ii/ du fait de son inconvénient majeur, l’intermittence, pouvons-nous fournir une architecture optimale d’une système basé sur l’énergie solaire associant des systèmes de stockage ?; iii/ quelle est l’efficacité des politiques incitatives mises en œuvre pour accélérer son déploiement ?Ainsi, dans un premier chapitre, nous analysons la position particulière de l’énergie photovoltaïque dans le mix énergétique. Après un rappel des enjeux des futurs mix énergétiques mondiaux, nous proposons une description sommaire des différentes technologies solaires et de leurs évolutions attendues en termes d’améliorations techniques et de réductions de coûts. Enfin, nous décrivons la croissance très rapide du marché photovoltaïque et de ces conséquences à la fois sur le mix électrique et sur le secteur industriel. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous nous intéressons à la problématique de l’intégration de cette énergie intermittente dans le mix électrique, en développant une méthodologie d’évaluation multicritère ainsi qu’un outil d’optimisation multicritère sous contraintes qui permet de faire des simulations d’un système composé de panneaux photovoltaïques et de technologies de stockage. Des cas d’applications sur le cas réel du Cirque de Mafate (L’île de la Réunion, France) sont présentés pour illustrer l’intérêt de la méthode.Enfin, dans le troisième chapitre, nous questionnons l’efficacité de différentes politiques de soutien aux technologies photovoltaïques dans les pays les plus pertinents. Nous examinons plus particulièrement la corrélation entre la puissance installée, l’argent publique dépensé, ainsi que les prix de l’électricité. / The energetic issue is on the top of the political agenda in many countries, for environmental reasons, for its driving role in all the economic sectors, as well as for the energetic independency concerns. This problematic is stressed by the increasing weight of renewable intermittent power sources in the global energy mix. In particular, due to its high potential and the strong national policy support it beneficiated, solar photovoltaic energy is now a key player in the world energy mutation, and the way it is integrated into the global mix should be carefully performed. To deeply understand the way solar energy can penetrate and transform the forthcoming energy framework, we adopted a three-level strategy with an multidisciplinary approach to provide some answers to the following questions: i/ how can we situate the photovoltaic power role in future energy mixes?; ii/ due to its main drawback, intermittency, could we provide an optimal design of a system combining storage devices?; iii/ what is the efficiency of the incentive policies that are or have been implemented to accelerate its deployment?That is why, in a first chapter, the peculiar position of the solar photovoltaic energy in the energy mix is analyzed. After recalling the general issue of future global energetic mixes, we propose a brief description of the different photovoltaic technologies and their promising evolutions in terms of technical improvements and cost reductions. Then, we describe the fast growing photovoltaic market and its consequences both on the electricity mix and the industry sector.In the second chapter we investigate the issue of integrating such an intermittent energy in the electricity mix, by developing a multicriteria evaluation methodology and a multicriteria under constraint optimization tool which simulates a system composed of photovoltaic panels and storage devices. Applications on a real case in the Cirque de Mafate (L’île de la Réunion, France) are presented to illustrate the interest of our method.Finally, in chapter three, we question the efficiency of different public support policies to the photovoltaic technologies in the most relevant countries. We focus on correlating the installed power capacity with the spent public money and the electricity prices.

<div> <div> <div> <p>Puerto Rico’s lack of effective and affordable energy substitutes after Hurricane Maria resulted in a mortality increase of 4,970 residents (Verma, Murray, and Mamdani, 2018). Puerto Rico’s Island dependency on electric power and no energy substitutes available have provoked a risk to human life after catastrophic events. The problem was measured by comparing Puerto Rico’s reliance on fossil fuels with accessible and economical renewable energy options. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies are the optimum alternative to transition from fossil fuel usage to renewable energy. Previous research has demonstrated the impact of using solar panels instead of an electric grid due to the constant solar radiation throughout the year. The analyzed data and projections showed a reduction in fossil fuels and carbon dioxide emissions by implementing solar photovoltaic technologies. The installation of PV systems in landfills, household roofs and transitioning to solar public lighting positively impacts the atmosphere carbon dioxide emissions. </p> </div> </div> </div>