Many scenarios try to describe a future of supply and demand for electricity in Sweden. All the studied scenarios contain an increased amount of variable renewable energy (VRE) power production. VRE power sources, such as solar and wind power, depend on weather conditions, like solar irradiance and wind speed. There are also scenarios predicting an increased amount of plug-in electrical vehicles (PEVs), which charge their batteries from the electricity grid and thereby changes the consumption patterns. In a future power system with less nuclear power and increased VRE power production it is of interest to investigate the scenarios impact on supply and demand. The scenarios were compiled into cases for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. Simulations of each case VRE shares resulted in hourly power production data. Aggregating the data and comparing it with the consumption gives an understanding of the power and regulation need.  For Case 2030, a VRE share of 10.3% was calculated. The hydropower in Sweden could cover the power need for the whole year and even peaks in demand. For the larger shares of Case 2050 and 2100, hydropower was not able to cover peaks in power demand solemnly. The consumption of PEVs was small for all cases, reaching shares of 1.5% to 7.1%, compared to the consumption of all other sectors. Considering short-term statistics for wind power and the latest news that some of Sweden’s nuclear reactors might shut down in advance, it is possible that Case 2030 might occur sooner than predicted. If larger shares of VRE power have to be produced to meet consumer needs in the near future, grid-stabilizing measures has to be investigated.

Transitioning from an energy system based on fossil fuels to an energy system based on renewables is necessary to limit global warming and comes with both opportunities and challenges. National policies in Cuba look toward the domestic sugar industry for synergies in this transition, and bagasse is projected to play a key role in the future electricity system. Since bagasse only is available during the sugarcane harvesting season, it must be supplemented with other feedstock for power production year-round. Biomass can have important interactions with CLEWs and therefore a nexus approach is important to ensure policy coherence across sectors. This study investigates different pathways for the Cuban energy transition from a CLEWs perspective through a scenario analysis and uses OSeMOSYS as a tool. This study shows that national policies for increased food security, regrowth of the sugar industry, use of energy crops and increased electricity consumption to develop the country compete for land and water resources. While there are currently plenty of resources, compromises will be needed in the medium- to long-term in order to stay within natural boundaries. This is especially true for the water sector since precipitation is expected to decrease in the future due to climate change and since sea level rise will contaminate groundwater. Another effect of climate change is soil degradation which would decrease yields. Increased energy and water inputs to the agricultural sector is known to increase yields in developing countries such as Cuba, which is why an adaptation strategy to maintain yields could be to increase these inputs. However, this would further amplify the pressure on water resources. Exceeding the exploitable internal renewable freshwater resources would then require water inputs from desalination plants which is an energy intensive process, which - if powered by an electricity system with a high share of biopower - could create a vicious cycle. / Omställningen från ett fossilbaserat energisystem till ett förnybart system är nödvändigt för att begränsa den globala uppvärmningen och innebär både möjligheter och utmaningar. Nationella policys i Kuba ser till landets sockerindustri för synergier i denna omställning, och bagass väntas spela en nyckelroll i det framtida elsystemet. Eftersom bagass endast är tillgängligt under sockerrörens skördesäsong måste den kompletteras med andra bränslen för att el ska kunna produceras året om. Biomassa kan ha betydande påverkan på CLEWs varför det är viktigt med en nexusanalys för att säkerställa samstämmighet av policys för olika sektorer. Denna studie undersöker olika tillvägagångssätt för den kubanska energiomställningen ur ett CLEWs-perspektiv genom en scenarioanalys i vilken OSeMOSYS används som modelleringsverktyg. Denna studie fann att nationella policys för ökad trygghet av matförsörjning, återuppbyggnad av sockerindustrin och ökad elkonsumtion för att utveckla landet konkurrerar om land- och vattenresurser. Det finns för närvarande gott om resurser, men på medel och lång sikt kommer kompromisser behövas för att stanna inom naturens gränser. Detta gäller särskilt för vattensektorn eftersom nederbörd väntas minska i framtiden till följd av klimatförändringar och eftersom höjningar av havsvattennivån kommer kontaminera grundvatten. Ytterligare påverkan från klimatförändringarna är markförstöring vilket minskar skörden. Ökad energi- och vattenanvändning i jordbrukssektorn ger vanligtvis högre skörd i utvecklingsländer såsom Kuba, vilket innebär att en anpassningsstrategi för att behålla skördenivån skulle kunna vara att öka dessa. Detta kan dock ytterligare förstärka belastningen på vattenresurserna. Att överskrida de utnyttjbara förnybara färskvattenresurserna skulle kräva avsaltning av vatten vilket är en energikrävande process, vilket - om energiförsörjningen kommer från ett system med mycket biomassa - skulle kunna skapa en ond cirkel.

The installation of variable renewable energy sources has rapidly increased during the last decade in several countries. It is likely that it will also increase in Sweden. Such a development could lead to periods of very high power production. In order to keep the stability of the electric grid, curtailment is the most common feed-in management method. This study examines how Power-to-Heat can utilize this surplus power in Swedish district heating systems instead of using curtailments and thereby facilitate the development of installed variable renewable energy sources. During this study a model was developed in MatLab where the capacity utilization was simulated for Power-to-Heat. The study indicates that the capacity utilization varies from 1,1–4,2 TWh electricity. In this scenario a share of the base load is substituted with new installed wind and solar power; 50 TWh respectively 10 TWh. The parameter that showed greatest sensitivity for the analysis were how the net power profile was simulated.