Este trabalho apresenta o desenvolvimento de um Sistema de Suporte a Decisão (SSD) para o planejamento operacional de sistemas hidrotérmicos de grande porte formados por um conjunto de usinas hidrelétricas e termelétricas, operados para geração e atendimento a demandas de energia elétrica. São consideradas também outras fontes de geração de energia, a expansão do sistema, transposições, usos múltiplos da água e restrições ambientais. O SSD integra um banco de dados com informações sobre o sistema hidrotérmico, uma interface gráfica para facilitar a edição dos dados e visualização dos resultados e os modelos de simulação e otimização. Os modelos do SSD chamado HIDROTERM baseiam-se na programação não linear (PNL). Nas diversas aplicações feitas do SSD com dados do Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN), formado por 4 subsistemas e 128 usinas hidrelétricas ativas, foram obtidos resultados bastante satisfatórios demonstrando diversos avanços em relação ao modelo SISOPT de Barros et al. (2003), com destaque para a velocidade de processamento, o porte de sistemas aos quais o modelo pode ser aplicado e a representação bem mais completa do sistema hidrotérmico. Além do planejamento da operação do sistema hidrotérmico, o SSD pode ser aplicado também para diagnósticos do sistema existente, análises de impacto de mudanças em regras operacionais e de usos múltiplos da água, planejamento e avaliação de alternativas de expansão. / This paper presents the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for the operational planning of large-scale hydrothermal systems formed by a series of hydroelectric and thermoelectric power plants, operated for the production and service demands for energy. Other sources of energy production, the expansion of the system, water transfers, multiple uses of water and environmental constraints are also considered. The DSS integrates a database with information of the hydrothermal system, a graphical interface to facilitate the editing of the data and display the results and the simulation and optimization models. The models of the called DSS HIDROTERM are based on the non-linear programming (NLP). In several applications made with the DSS with data for the Brazilian Hydrothermal System, formed by 4 subsystems and 128 active hydroelectric plants, very satisfactory results were obtained demonstrating various advances in relation to the model SISOPT from Barros et al. (2003), with emphasis on the processing speed, the size of systems to which the model can be applied and in a much more complete representation of the hydrothermal system. In addition to the planning of the operation of the hydrothermal system, the DSS can be applied also to the existing system diagnoses, analyses the impact of changes in operating rules and of multiple uses of water, planning and evaluation of expansion alternatives.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / O ArquipÃlago de Cabo Verde, situado na costa ocidental africana, sofre influÃncia do deserto de Saara tornando o clima caracterizado por pluviometria muito baixa e distribuÃda irregularmente no espaÃo e no tempo. As chuvas sÃo muito concentradas, gerando grandes escoamentos para o mar. O aumento da disponibilidade hÃdrica requer alÃm da construÃÃo e manutenÃÃo de infraestrutura de captaÃÃo e conservaÃÃo de Ãguas pluviais, uma gestÃo eficiente destes recursos. Atualmente, constitui um dos eixos estratÃgicos da polÃtica do Estado de Cabo Verde, a captaÃÃo, o armazenamento e a mobilizaÃÃo de Ãguas superficiais atravÃs de construÃÃo de barragens. Estudos do comportamento hidrolÃgico e sedimentolÃgico do reservatÃrio e da sua bacia de contribuiÃÃo constituem premissas bÃsicas para adequados dimensionamento, gestÃo e monitoramento da referida infraestrutura. à nesse sentido que o presente estudo objetivou sistematizar informaÃÃes hidrolÃgicas e sedimentolÃgicas da bacia hidrogrÃfica da Barragem de PoilÃo (BP) e apresentou proposta operacional de longo prazo. A Ãrea de estudo ocupa 28 km da Bacia HidrogrÃfica da Ribeira Seca (BHRS) na Ilha de Santiago. A altitude da bacia varia de 99 m, situada na cota da barragem, atà 1394 m. Para o estudo, foram utilizados e sistematizados sÃrie pluviomÃtrica de 1973 a 2010, registros de vazÃo instantÃnea do perÃodo 1984 a 2000 e registros agroclimÃticos da Ãrea de estudo de 1981 a 2004. Para o preenchimento das falhas tanto dos escoamentos como da descarga sÃlida em suspensÃo, foi utilizado o mÃtodo de curva chave. Para estimativa de produÃÃo de sedimentos na bacia, aplicou-se a EquaÃÃo Universal de Perda de Solo (USLE) associada à razÃo de aporte de sedimentos (SDR). O Ãndice de retenÃÃo de sedimentos no reservatÃrio foi estimado pelo mÃtodo de Brune e a distribuiÃÃo de sedimento pelo mÃtodo empÃrico de reduÃÃo de Ãrea descrito por Borland e Miller e revisado por Lara. Para gerar e simular curvas de vazÃo versus garantia foi utilizado cÃdigo computacional VYELAS, desenvolvido por AraÃjo e baseado na abordagem de Campos. TambÃm foi avaliada uma possÃvel reduÃÃo da vazÃo de retirada do perÃodo 2006 a 2026, provocada pelo assoreamento do reservatÃrio. Concluiu-se que, em mÃdia, a precipitaÃÃo anual à de 323 mm, concentrando-se 73% nos meses de agosto e setembro; a bacia de contribuiÃÃo apresenta nÃmero de curva (CN) 76, com abstraÃÃo inicial (Ia) de 26 mm, coeficiente de escoamento de 19% e vazÃo anual afluente de 1,7 hm (Cv = 0,73); a disponibilidade hÃdrica para garantia de 85% à 0,548 hmÂ/ano e nÃo 0,671 hmÂ/ano, como indica o projeto original da barragem. Com uma descarga sÃlida avaliada em 22.185 mÂ/ano, estima-se que, atà o ano de 2026, a capacidade do reservatÃrio seja reduzida a uma taxa de 1,8 % ao ano, devido ao assoreamento, provocando uma reduÃÃo de 41% da disponibilidade hÃdrica inicial. Em 2026, segundo as estimativas dessa pesquisa, as perdas por evaporaÃÃo e sangria deverÃo ser da ordem de 81% da vazÃo afluente ao reservatÃrio. Na base desses resultados se apresentou proposta de operaÃÃo da Barragem de PoilÃo / Cape Verde Islands, located in the West African coast, are influenced by the Sahara desert, making the climate characterized by very low rainfall and great spatial and temporal variability. The rainfall events are highly concentrated generating large flows to the sea. The increase of water availability requires construction and maintenance of infrastructure to capture and conserve rainwater, and also an efficient management of these resources. Nowadays, capture, storage and mobilization of water surface through construction of dams is one of the strategic priorities of the policy of the State of Cape Verde. Studies of hydrology and sedimentology of the only existing reservoir (PoilÃo Dam, 1.2 hmÂ) and its watershed are the basic requirements for adequate design, management and monitoring of this infrastructure. In this sense, the present study aimed at systematizing hydrological and sediment information of the PoilÃo Dam and providing a long-term operational proposal. The altitude of the basin varies from 99 m, situated on the dam, up to 1394m. For the study, the following data were used and systematized: rainfall dataset from 1973 to 2010; records of instantaneous flow for the period of 1984 to 2000; and agro-climatic records from 1981 to 2004. To fill the gaps of both flow and suspended-sediment discharge, the rating-curve method was used. To estimate sediment yield in the watershed it was applied the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), associated with the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR). The sediment release efficiency rate of the reservoir was estimated by Brune method and the sediment distribution inside the reservoir by the empirical area reduction method described by Borland and Miller, and reviewed by Lara. To assess water availability, water yield versus reliability curves were used. These curves were obtained by the computer code VYELAS, developed by AraÃjo and based on Campos approach. The reduction of the water yield (caused by the reservoir silting) within the period from 2006 to 2026 was also assessed. It was concluded that the average annual rainfall in the watershed is 323 mm, concentrating 73% in August and September; the watershed presents a number of curve (CN) of 76 with an initial abstraction (Ia) of 26 mm, the runoff coefficient is 19% and the average annual inflow is 1.7 hm (coefficient of variation 0.73); the water availability at 85% reliability level is estimated at 0.548 hmÂ/year and not 0.671 hmÂ/year as the original design indicates. With a sediment discharge estimated at 22,185 mÂ/year, it was concluded that, by the year 2026, the annual reservoir storage capacity reduction rate is 1.18% (due to siltation), causing a 41% reduction of the initial water availability. At that time, losses due to evaporation and spillway overflow totalize 81% of annual inflow. Based on these results, a PoilÃo reservoir operation proposal is presented

In assuring the energy supply of Turkey, hydroelectric energy plays one of the most important roles in plans formulated to realize equilibrium between energy production and consumption. Hydroelectric power plants on Murat River, a tributary of Euphrates, is a part of the development plan for energy production. Operation of four dams in cascade on Murat River are simulated by using program package HECResSim. For this purpose, ten scenarios are formulated to utilize the hydraulic potential of Murat River between the elevations of 870 m 1225 m. This study provides detailed financial analyses of scenarios and shows how HEC-ResSim program can be used in formulation of alternative scenarios. Electric energy storage requirement due to the rising demand for peaking power is creating a completely new market value, which is also increasing the attractiveness of pumped storage power plants. The results of the simulation performed in Scenario 10 in which two pumped storage power plants are considered have 15% higher internal rate of return value than the other scenarios with conventional turbines. Results demonstrate the increasing attractiveness of the cascade system with reversible pump turbines.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / This work seeks to integrate climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir operation models in order to optimize available water volume in the Brazilian Northeast. The global ECHAM 4.5 climate model was used to feed the RAMS regional climate model for the Alto Jaguaribe hydrographic basin. Resulting precipitation values were calibrated by the probability density function (PDF) correction of simulated data compared with average daily precipitation data using the Thiessen method for the period 1979-2009. The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) was used to evaluate model performance in the Maximum Predictable Time Interval (ITEMP) of the atmospheric model. These PDF-corrected precipitation data, both observed and RAMS-simulated, were inserted in the hydrologic Soil Moisture Account (SMA) model from the Hydrologic Engineering Center â Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to determine modeled flows. These flows were then compared with median observed flows. To calibrate and validate the SMA, an iterative method was used to minimize percentage error of volume. The data returned by this cascade model was applied to assisting policy-makers determine water releases from the OrÃs reservoir. Three different scenarios were compared, the first based on observed flows, the second flows simulated by SMA with observed precipitation, and the third by flows simulated by SMA driven by the RAMS-PDF precipitation data. The RAMS model showed optimal efficiency in precipitation prediction on a 30 to 45 day interval, with HSS values of 0.56. The SMA model showed satisfactory performance with Nash-Sutcliffe values of 0.89 in the calibration phase and 0.67 in the validation phase, demonstrating its capacity to assist hydrological modeling in the semi-arid. This cascade model showed potential in accurately representing median inflows for the reservoir and as such can be used as a hydrologic tool, assisting reservoir operation decisions to meet the regionâs demand. Keywords: Soil Moisture Account; hydrologic / O presente trabalho visa o acoplamento de modelo atmosfÃrico, hidrolÃgico e de operaÃÃo de reservatÃrio com vistas à otimizaÃÃo da liberaÃÃo de Ãguas no semiÃrido do nordeste brasileiro. O modelo atmosfÃrico regional RAMS foi forÃado pelo modelo atmosfÃrico global ECHAM 4.5, na bacia hidrogrÃfica do Alto Jaguaribe, e em seguida, aplicada a correÃÃo probability density function (PDF) nos dados simulados e comparado com dados diÃrio de precipitaÃÃo mÃdia observada pelo mÃtodo de Thiessen no perÃodo de 1979-2009. Foi utilizando o Heidke Skill Score (HSS) como mÃtrica principal para avaliar o desempenho da previsÃo em busca do Intervalo de Tempo de MÃxima Previsibilidade (ITEMP) do modelo atmosfÃrico. Os dados de precipitaÃÃes observados e simulados pelo RAMS com correÃÃes PDFs foram inseridos no modelo hidrolÃgico Soil Moisture Account (SMA) do Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), e comparado com as vazÃes mÃdias observadas. Para a calibraÃÃo e validaÃÃo do SMA, foi realizado um mÃtodo interativo para minimizar uma funÃÃo objetivo, com base no erro percentual do volume. Por fim foi desenvolvido e avaliado um modelo de cascata a fim de comparar as decisÃes operacionais de liberaÃÃo do reservatÃrio OrÃs com diferentes cenÃrios com base nas vazÃes observadas, vazÃes simuladas pelo SMA com a precipitaÃÃo observada e vazÃes simuladas pelo SMA forÃada com o RAMS-PDF. O modelo RAMS mostrou melhor eficiÃncia na previsÃo da precipitaÃÃo no intervalo de 30 a 45 dias, com valores de HSS = 0,56. O modelo SMA mostrou desempenho satisfatÃrio com valores de Nash-Sutcliffe de 0,89 na fase de calibraÃÃo e 0,67 na fase de validaÃÃo, mostrando ser uma nova alternativa de utilizaÃÃo de modelo hidrolÃgico no semiÃrido. O modelo de cascata mostrou potencial em representar bem as afluÃncias mÃdias do reservatÃrio, podendo tornar uma ferramenta hidrolÃgica, auxiliando as decisÃes de operaÃÃo dos reservatÃrios, atendendo as demandas da regiÃo.

As regras de operação apresentam-se como um dos principais elementos no planejamento e gerenciamento de sistemas de recursos hídricos. Em períodos de seca ou iminente seca, a aplicação de regras operacionais padrão pode apresentar-se insatisfatória, visto que períodos com déficits de grande magnitude podem ocorrer, levando o sistema a uma situação altamente vulnerável. Muitas vezes, isto pode ser evitado ou minimizado, utilizando regras de proteção, que admitem déficits menores na fase de cheia, ou de seca, ou em ambas fases de operação, aumentando assim o armazenamento no reservatório para precaver-se contra déficits de grande magnitude que possam ocorrer no futuro. Neste trabalho é desenvolvida uma rotina computacional para obtenção de regras operacionais de sistemas de reservatórios, considerando um novo tipo de regra de proteção. Aplicando os algoritmos genéticos – AGs, foram obtidas as estratégias operacionais do sistema produtor. Os resultados demonstraram que o emprego de técnicas de otimização como os AGs constitui uma ferramenta versátil para auxiliar na tomada de decisões. Além disso, as regras de proteção apresentaram-se muito úteis na prevenção contra déficits de grande magnitude / The operation rules constitute one of the main elements in the planning and management of water resources systems. The application of the standard operational rules can be present unsatisfactory in periods of drought or imminent drought. These rules can result in periods with deficits of great magnitude, leading the system to a highly vulnerable situation. Many times, this can be avoided or minimized using hedging operation rules that admit deficits in phases of flood, drought or in both phases of operation. Therefore, the storage in the reservoir is increased to prevent deficits of great magnitude that can occur in the future. In this work a computational routine to attain the operational rules of the reservoirs systems was developed, considering a new approach of hedging rule. The operational strategies of the Cantareira system were obtained through the usage of genetic algorithms (GAs). The results demonstrated that the use of optimization techniques, as the AGs, is an important tool to assist in the decision making. Moreover, the hedging rules were suitable in the prevention of deficits of great magnitude that can occur in the future

Dams are amongst the most important components of water resource systems. In many places the water regulated by and stored in dams is essential to meet the development objectives of water supply, flood control, agriculture (i.e. irrigation and livestock), industry, energy generation and other sectors. Previous studies (Gourbesvive, 2008) indicate that in the next 30 years water use will increase by 50% in the world. By 2025 about 4 billion people will live under conditions of severe water stress. Continuous deterioration in water quality in most developing countries is additional challenge. Therefore, development of priority water infrastructures and improvements of water management have essential and complementary roles in contributing to sustainable growth and energy reduction in developing countries like Sweden. One way of improving water management is through increasing the efficiency of utilization of dam reservoirs (Bosona, 2010). Reservoir operation is a complex task involving numerous hydrological, technical, economical, environmental, institutional and political considerations. There is no general algorithm that covers all type of reservoir operation problems. The choice for techniques usually depends on the reservoir specific system characteristics, data availability, the objectives specified and the constraints imposed. Goal of the mathematical modelling and simulation of a physical system is to provide the user with the relevant information used in design and/or management decision-making. However, in the absence of adequate foresight and planning for adverse impacts, past dam construction has often resulted in devastating effects for ecosystems and the livelihoods of affected communities. In this project with Hec-ResSim simulation model four reservoirs in Ore River Basin and 3 reservoirs in Lule River Basin in different location in Sweden are considered and by new operation rules, model is simulated. With consideration of two high floods event model is calibrated and new operation rules for flood control and hydropower melioration was rendered and suggested.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第19976号 / 工博第4220号 / 新制||工||1653(附属図書館) / 33072 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 教授 堀 智晴, 准教授 KIM SUNMIN / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22760号 / 工博第4759号 / 新制||工||1744(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 清水 芳久, 教授 田中 宏明, 教授 米田 稔 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第24213号 / 工博第5041号 / 新制||工||1787(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 教授 角 哲也, 准教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Water reservoirs are used to regulate river discharge for a variety of reasons, such as flood mitigation, water availability for irrigation, municipal consumption and power production purposes. Recent efforts to increase the amount of renewable power production have seen an increase in intermittent climate-variable power production due to wind and solar power production. The additional variable energy production has increased the need for regulating the capacity of the electrical system, to which hydropower production is a significant contributor. The hydraulic impact on the time lags of flows between production stations have often largely been ignored in optimization planning models in favor of computational efficiency and simplicity. In this thesis, the hydrodynamics in the stream network connecting managed reservoirs were described using the kinematic-diffusive wave (KD) equation, which was implemented in optimization schemes to illustrate the effects of wave diffusion in flow stretches on the resulting production schedule. The effect of wave diffusion within a watershed on the variance of the discharge hydrograph within a river network was also analyzed using a spectral approach, illustrating that wave diffusion increases the variance of the hydrograph while the regulation of reservoirs generally increases the variance of the hydrograph over primarily short periods. Although stream hydrodynamics can increase the potential regulation capacity, the total capacity for power regulation in the Swedish reservoir system also depends significantly on the variability in climatic variables. Alternative formulations of the environmental objectives, which are often imposed as hard constraints on discharge, were further examined. The trade-off between the objectives of hydropower production and improvement of water quality in downstream areas was examined to potentially improve the ecological and aquatic environments and the regulation capacity of the network of reservoirs. / <p>QC 20170210</p>