Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Internationally, a number of studies on property cycles have been undertaken. In contrast very little academic research has been undertaken in South Africa. The importance of the subject is once again become evident given the recent global turbulence in both property and credit markets. The central hypothesis of this study is that there exists a residential property cycle in South Africa and that it can be identified and that furthermore there are indicators that can identify the various stages that the property market finds itself in and that these indicators can be used to forecast the property cycle. A number of potential drivers of the property cycle were identified and analysed. These drivers collectively propel the property cycle through its various cycle stages. Not one of the drivers in isolation has the ability to move the cycle; it is rather the correct combination of drivers at the right time that have the necessary impact to make the changes in property price levels. The study has identified the historical residential property cycle in South Africa and identified the primary drivers of the property cycle. It was found that Interest Rates, GOP, Population, Household Debt to Disposable Income ratio, Quantity of Building Plans Approved and Building Cost Escalation are all material drivers in defining the property cycle. A statistical analysis in the form of multiple regression was applied to the above variables and a statistical model was developed to forecast the property cycle. It was found that the model has significant explanatory powers when the goodness of fit was tested. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die sentraal onderstelling van hierdie studie is dat daar 'n residensiele eiendom kringloop in Suid-afrika bestaan en dat dit geidentifiseer kan wees en dat bowendien daar aanwysers wat die verskeie stadiums van die eiendom mark kan identifiseer vind en dat hierdie aanwysers gebruik kan word vir voorspelling van die eiendom kringloop. 'n Aantal potensiele drywers van die eiendom kringloop was geidentifiseer en gean ali seer. Hierdie drywers gesamentlik dryf die eiendom kringloop deur sy verskeie kringloop stadiums voort. Nie een van die drywers in isolasie het die vermoe om die kringloop te beweeg nie; dit is liewer die korrekte kombinasie van drywers op tyd wat die nodige impak het om die veranderinge in eiendom prys vlakke te maak. Die studie het die historiese residensiele eiendom kringloop in Suid-afrika geidentifiseer en die primere drywers van die eiendom kringloop. Dit was gevind dat Rentekoerse, GOP, Populasie, Huishouding Skuld tot Weggooibare Inkomste Verhouding, Hoeveelheid van Gebou Pia nne Goedgekeur en Gebou Kos Eskilasie is almal materiaal drywers in definieer van die eiendom kringloop. 'n Statisties analisering was aangewend aan die bo onkonstante en 'n statistiese skema was ontwikkel om voorspelling van die eiendom kringloop te bepaal. Dit was gevind dat die skema beduidende verduidelike kragte het wanneer die goedheid van pas getoets was.

Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for Master of Arts in Industrial Sociology in the Graduate School for the Humanities, Social Sciences and Education in the faculty of Arts at the University of the Witwatersrand November 2016 / The study pursues the examination of transition in peri-urban areas through the case study of Midvaal Local Municipality. Peri-urban areas are experiencing a transition from rural urban coexistence to urban dominance. The peri-urban urban concept remains a complex one to define. Peri-urban concept has been accepted to mean the urban and rural linkages that are mutually reinforcing. Literature has reflected on urban bias developments of peri-urban areas with rural function being subdued. There is evidence of competing tensions between rural and urban functions. These tensions arise from competing interests such as residential estate developments and industrialisation of peri-urban zones. The study explores the urban bias extended to peri-urban zones that has potential to underscore rural functions, such as farming. Theoretical constructs assist to contextualise the transition in the peri-urban areas. There is convergence in the body of literature over transition of the peri-urban areas albeit not homogeneous. Unique country and within country transition of peri-urban zones make it difficult to forecast growth trajectory of peri-urban zones. The study finds that peri-urban developments have taken an affluent development trend, redefining the peri-urban as zones of high consumption. It is established that ultra-rich people are attracted to Midvaal. Accordingly, there are exclusive upmarket estates, namely, Eye of Africa golfing estate and Blue Saddle Ranches equestrian estate. These affluent development trends fracture the conceptualisation of peri-urban areas as vulnerable, poor areas that are a consequence of urban sprawl. Some of the pro-urban developments in periurban areas results in irrecoverable loss of agricultural land. Often, urban bias functions influence the neighbouring farm portions through land use or even influence price of land in these zones. There is an appeal of middle and upper class to peri-urban zones owing to country nostalgia, cheap land, security, recreation, ambiance, tranquillity and anti-urbanism. Peri-urban areas are being redefined along class lines in the South African socio-economic context. Racial property ownership patterns have been replaced by class patterns. The study establishes that ownership patterns within the estates under study are above the middle class income bracket of South Africa, rather a preserve of the affluent. The study establishes that Midvaal Municipality consents to the development of estates. There is an underlying motivation for the local authorities to be amenable to the upmarket estate developments. The municipality is actuated by revenue linked to upmarket residential estate developments. Developments of these estates inject revenue growth in the area. Upfront, developers invest in the laying of bulk infrastructure which is later taken over by the municipality. This type of relationship, if not guarded may yield elite capture of peri-urban. Development trends in peri-urban areas are not homogeneous. Some peri-urban zones still reflect a state of neglect, vulnerability and are homes of the poor. Whilst the municipality boasts being premised on agriculture strategy in its objectives as an agri-tropolis local authority, there is little evidence to suggest vibrant agriculture and contribution of same towards the GDP of the municipality. Instead, the growth path is dominated by non-agricultural functions and activities. There are contradictions and tensions of agricultural pursuit over industrial and residential developments. / MT2017

Thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of Master of Science in Building (Property Development and Management) to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, School of Construction Economics and Management at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2017 / The research study seeks to determine the most resilient residential real estate market segment throughout the economic cycle waves, for the innercity of Johannesburg, South Africa. The study is prompted by various global reports that subtly suggests a uniform effect to real estate market segments throughout economic cycle waves. Such reports have adopted various indices as proxy to economic cycle waves (e.g. interest rates, current account deficit, gross domestic product, etc.) and house price as proxy to real estate market segments in an attempt to justify the relationship between the proxies. For purposes of this research report, business cycles are employed as proxy to economic cycle waves whilst house prices are also representative of real estate market segments. In a country that ranks third globally on high inequality, with a gini coefficient of 0.63, it is considered improbable – at the very least - that the performance of real estate market segments would react uniformly to the effects of economic cycle waves. The residential sector is opted as a test case, mainly due to growing number of population and the desperate need for housing to accommodate such high population growth levels. The housing challenge needs to be thoroughly understood so that informed and/or adequate planning can be formulated. The research study follows a Pragmatism Philosophy, which allows for mixed method approach in addressing research questions, in order to meet the research aim and objectives. An Explanatory Sequential research design is used as a form of mixed method approach. The process involves collecting both Qualitative and Quantitative data, integrating the two forms of data, and using distinct designs that involves philosophical assumptions and theoretical frameworks. In this case, Quantitative methods are used to explain Qualitative methods. Priority is given to Quantitative data and the two methods are integrated during the interpretation phase of the research study. Empirical analysis using tools such as Quantile Regressions (e.g.OLS regressions) for a period between 2005 (Q1) and 2015 (Q4) are analysed and discussed. Standard errors and covariances were computed using tools such as the Huber-Sandwich methods, to which an Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was conducted to test for the null hypothesis of a unit root in a time series sample. The Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test is also used to confirm the absence of serial correlation at four lags. The ARCH LM test is used to show that residuals are homoskedastic, i.e. that there is no evidence of time-varying variance. A negative and significant coefficient appears only the high price sector, suggesting that the business cycle has a negative impact on house prices in the high residential real estate market segment, displaying negative average growth over the period. House prices in the low and medium residential real estate market segments do not respond to movements in the business cycle, on the average. Property size also displayed a negative impact on house prices in the high residential real estate market segment. The autoregressive parameters for house prices in the low and middle residential real estate market segments are statistically significant at 5% and 10%, respectively. Negative and significant coefficient is recorded for the middle residential real estate market segment as well, at the second quantile. In conclusion, the low residential real estate market segment appeared to have been the most resilient residential real estate market segment amongst other residential real estate market segments. The middle residential real estate market segment appears to have been a partially resilient, whilst the high residential real estate market segment appears to have been the least resilient. Given these findings, it is submitted that residential real estate market segments need to be considered or assessed individually, in order to formulate adequate strategies for integrated and sustainable human settlements. / MT2018

The National Credit Act (NCA) was promulgated and implemented on 1 June 2007. The purpose of this research study was to outline the residential mort-gage market in South Africa in the context of the NCA and to determine how residential mortgage lending under the new NCA was regulated. The purpose of the NCA was to remove the many unfair practices, inappropriate disclosure and anti-competitive practices from the market and to achieve honesty in the credit market. Low-income groups were held back because they could not gain access to formal finance to build or improve houses or supplement housing subsidies to get bigger houses. This study applied the quantitative research design using time series secondary data. Registered data on monthly residential mortgages was obtained from Lightstone Property for the period January 2001 to August 2011. Secondary data was collected from the BA900 of the SARB to see how many loans were approved and rejected between 2008 and 2014. The statistical analysis techniques used in this study were t-tests, descriptive statistics, trend analysis and correlation analysis. It was found that the NCA had a positive effect on the residential mortgages in SA. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

This study investigates relationship marketing by estate agencies in the residential property market of South Africa. In determining the residential estate agency's knowledge of relation­ ship marketing, an extensive literature study was undertaken on the marketing environment and broader market, marketing concept, market segmentation and target marketing, the marketing mix and expansion thereof, as well as customer service and internal marketing. An empirical study was conducted to determine the residential estate agency's present knowledge and practices of the basic components of relationship marketing. In the study a structured questionnaire was mailed to all residential estate agencies which are members of the Estate Agency Affairs Board. The most significant findings are that: the majority of respondents do not have mission statements and do not know what a mission statement is; they set marketing objectives which are communicated to the agents; when appointing new agents they consider the agent's service orientation and ability to work with clients, but qualifications and previous experience are not viewed as important; they train estate agents themselves and emphasise after-sales contact and building of long-term relationships, but do not stress customer behaviour influences; a large percentage do not conduct competitor analyses and view marketing research as unimportant, but are of the opinion that they have superior market knowledge and offer the best service quality; they regard the principles of the marketing concept as important; they engage in a large number of after-sales services, although few realise that contact after occupation is important; they regard the buyer's financial means as important and engage in activities to ensure customer service, but do not have formalised feedback systems to test customer satisfaction; they engage in internal marketing activities, strive to create a positive corporate culture and try to retain good agents. In conclusion it can be said that there is evidence that the principles of relationship marketing are followed by residential estate agencies in South Africa. There are, however, concerns about the long-term commitment of estate agencies towards their clients because of the lack of feedback systems and the lack of in-depth knowledge of the market. / Business Management / D. Comm (Business Management)

This study investigates relationship marketing by estate agencies in the residential property market of South Africa. In determining the residential estate agency's knowledge of relation­ ship marketing, an extensive literature study was undertaken on the marketing environment and broader market, marketing concept, market segmentation and target marketing, the marketing mix and expansion thereof, as well as customer service and internal marketing. An empirical study was conducted to determine the residential estate agency's present knowledge and practices of the basic components of relationship marketing. In the study a structured questionnaire was mailed to all residential estate agencies which are members of the Estate Agency Affairs Board. The most significant findings are that: the majority of respondents do not have mission statements and do not know what a mission statement is; they set marketing objectives which are communicated to the agents; when appointing new agents they consider the agent's service orientation and ability to work with clients, but qualifications and previous experience are not viewed as important; they train estate agents themselves and emphasise after-sales contact and building of long-term relationships, but do not stress customer behaviour influences; a large percentage do not conduct competitor analyses and view marketing research as unimportant, but are of the opinion that they have superior market knowledge and offer the best service quality; they regard the principles of the marketing concept as important; they engage in a large number of after-sales services, although few realise that contact after occupation is important; they regard the buyer's financial means as important and engage in activities to ensure customer service, but do not have formalised feedback systems to test customer satisfaction; they engage in internal marketing activities, strive to create a positive corporate culture and try to retain good agents. In conclusion it can be said that there is evidence that the principles of relationship marketing are followed by residential estate agencies in South Africa. There are, however, concerns about the long-term commitment of estate agencies towards their clients because of the lack of feedback systems and the lack of in-depth knowledge of the market. / Business Management / D. Comm (Business Management)