This study investigated the effect the price of oil has on enabling political establishments to maintain their presence within the business environment. The study consists of three different case studies with each of the states (Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates) being chosen based upon their level of state involvement within the business community. Each case study investigated whether the price of oil had any effect on influencing the amount of political involvement within the business community, property rights or trade freedom. The findings for all three case studies suggest that the price of oil has little to no effect on determining the amount of influence the state possesses within the business environment. Based on the results of this investigation, recommendations were made to improve the United States relationship with each country. Additional analysis and recommendations were made concerning the future economic impact of Iraq relying solely on oil as its revenue source.

The thesis deals with the existence or absence of a curse of mineral resource (more closely specified in the form of so-called curse of natural resources) namely on the most important mining regions of the selected group of developing countries with significant mining sector. The aim is to capture the regional benefits of mining, or its negative impact with the help of indicator of the relative position of the quality of life of the mining region (relativized to the other regions of watched country). You can see the greatest benefits of the work in this approach of monitoring the impacts of a possible curse (or benefit) of mineral resources at the regional level, as the majority of similar thesis is devoted to the comparison of countries, or the individual studies. The reader finds an overview of the basic mechanisms and factors affecting the use, benefit or a curse of mineral resources, as well as partial specifically aimed analyzes watched mining countries, including the determination of mining regions and finally a summary of reclaimed pieces of knowledgee, including the attempt of interpretation. The thesis also specifies the factors and mechanisms that underlie the curse, or the benefits of mineral resources among the group of countries and their mining regions. Key Words: Nature Resource...

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in Ful llment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics 15 July, 2015 / The thesis focuses on the sources of macroeconomic uctuations in ten (10) selected African economies over the period 1990-2011. Data for the study were obtained from the International Financial statistics (IFS), the World Bank, and Central Bank database of the selected countries. We formulate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the thesis. We estimate the model using quarterly time series data. Due to data availability, the sample size di¤ers from one country to the other. First, we investigate the relative contributions of internal and external shocks to economic uc- tuations in African economies. Second, we evaluate the signi cance of the balance sheet channel in African economies. Third, we investigate the ef- fectiveness of sovereign wealth funds in reducing macroeconomic volatility caused by commodity price shocks. The thesis has 5 chapters. Chapter 1 is the general introduction. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 are stand-alone related papers on macroeconomic uctuations. Chapter 5 is the conclusion. Chapter 1 introduces the study. We discuss the research problem, the moti- vation, the objectives, and the research questions. We also explain both our theoretical and empirical contributions to the literature. Moreover, we high- light the signi cance and the key ndings of the study. Finally, we conclude the chapter with a brief outline on the organisation of the study. Chapter 2 investigates the relative contributions of internal and external shocks to macroeconomic uctuations in African economies. We formulate and estimate a monetary DSGE model to examine the sources of economic uctuations in ten African countries. The model is estimated with the Bayesian technique using twelve macroeconomic variables. Generally, the ndings indicate that both the internal and external shocks signi cantly in- uence output uctuations in African countries. Over a four quarter horizon, internal shocks are dominant while over eight to sixteen quarter horizons, the external shocks are dominant. Among the external shocks, external debt, ex- change rate, foreign interest rate and commodity price shocks account for a large part of output variations in African economies. Money supply and productivity shocks are the most important internal shocks contributing to output uctuations in African countries. To ensure macroeconomic stability, African countries need to formulate appropriate exchange rate and exter- nal debt management policies, diversify the economies, and create sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) or use hedging instruments. Chapter 3 evaluates the quantitative signi cance of the balance sheet chan- nel in African economies. We construct an open economy monetary DSGE model where entrepreneurs nance investment by issuing foreign currency- denominated debt. The model is estimated with Bayesian technique. The evidence suggests that the balance sheet e¤ects are empirically important in African economies. The marginal likelihood results clearly favour the model with nancial frictions. Moreover, the ndings indicate that the balance sheet e¤ect reduces the e¤ectiveness of monetary policy, raises the sensitiv- ity of the risk premium to external debt, and contracts output. This indi- cates that exchange rate depreciation is contractionary in African economies. We conclude that African countries should reduce their exposure to foreign currency-denominated debt and also deepen their domestic bond markets. Chapter 4 investigates the e¤ectiveness of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in reducing macroeconomic volatility in commodity exporting African countries. We formulate and simulate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that features SWFs. The simulation results suggest that the creation of SWFs can reduce macroeconomic volatility in commodity exporting coun- tries. Particularly, SWFs can reduce government expenditure, real exchange rate, and external debt volatility. Since these are the channels through which commodity price shocks are transmitted to the African economies, we rec- ommend that African countries should create SWFs to sterilize the in ow of commodity revenue and to prevent the resource curse problem. Chapter 5 concludes the study. We summarize the key ndings in Chapters 2, 3, and 4. We highlight the policy implications of our ndings. Finally, we suggest areas for further research.

This thesis explores the institutional choices available to Timor-Leste to manage their natural resource wealth wisely and avoid the resource curse. Timor-Leste is a poor country and its challenge is to use its large per capita resource wealth to alleviate poverty and enable sustainable development. This research examines the Petroleum Fund Law, and other mechanisms to manage petroleum revenue that the Government of Timor-Leste has established. These mechanisms appear to be resilient, but remain untested. Based on field interviews in Timor-Leste, the study offers insights into the opinions of East Timorese and foreign advisers about how Timor-Leste´s petroleum revenue should be managed, and how a poor country can raise the living standards of its people.¶A framework that identifies human and social capital as essential to the quality of institutions is developed in this research, which proposes that the pre-condition of institutions affects the management of natural resource revenue. As a result of history (not its natural resource wealth) Timor-Leste´s productive institutions are weak and destructive institutions, such as corruption, are strong. The preferences of the research participants, identified using semi-structured interviews and multi-criteria decision analysis, revealed that what petroleum revenue is spent on is the most important petroleum revenue management decision. Further, health and education were regarded the highest spending priorities. Petroleum revenue management decisions that may affect Timor-Leste´s economic, social and political independence were also important to participants.¶Timor-Leste´s sustainable development depends on continued assistance in the form of foreign advisers to address its lack of human capital. A commitment to transparency should counteract the lack of trust between government and civil society. Timor-Leste will also need to invest more in people, and recognise that the wise management of its petroleum revenue depends as much on good governance as the mechanisms designed to manage it. The people of Timor-Leste´s fierce determination to overcome the challenges they face, against all odds, may help Timor-Leste to avoid the resource curse.¶

<p>Numerous studies have confirmed a statistically significant negative relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. This has been labeled “The Resource Curse”. In this paper we try to explain why Botswana, a country heavily dependent on its diamond industry, has managed to generate sustainable growth. Economists have advanced several explanations for the negative impact of natural resources on long-term growth. This paper focuses on the following important problems: First, a boom in a natural resource can pull resources away from other sectors of the economy, thus harming their international competitiveness, a phenomenon called the Dutch disease. Second, abundance in natural resources may lead to poor institutional quality in many countries. Thanks to conservative fiscal policies and accumulation of foreign reserves the local currency did not appreciate during the boom, and Botswana avoided the most severe symptoms of the Dutch disease. Historical tradition of democratic procedures and sound institutions at the time of diamond discovery has contributed to a high institutional quality in Botswana.</p>

The natural resource curse paradox has given rise to a wide range of explanations, which look at the economic, social and political characteristics of resource-rich countries. This paper focuses on the political economy of natural resources and finds that controlling for sociopolitical factors eliminates the natural resource curse. The analysis then turns to these sociopolitical factors and examines the significant, complex and varied effects of democratization on economic growth in general, as well as in resource-rich countries in particular. I conclude that the type of institutions needed for economic development in resource-rich countries are not specific to either democratic or autocratic systems, but are equally likely to be adopted by either regime, so that no one ideology is more suitable than the other. A corollary to this, however, is the case of weak democracies or low democratization levels. Such states are unable to adopt the necessary strategies and institutions and, thus, pose the greatest threat to economic growth in resource-rich countries. On the other hand, highly autocratic systems in resource-rich countries, such as those in Bahrain and UAE, or perfectly democratic systems, such as those in Norway and Iceland, utilize resources more efficiently for economic development.

Some oil-rich countries suffer from a resource curse, a paradoxical situation in which a country with oil wealth has poor economic growth and social development. A country can escape the resource curse by selecting appropriate policies. Governments are responsible for utilizing the right policies and managing the natural resource revenue effectively to benefit their nation. In this report, various economic, political, and social measurements are used to examine the fall into the resource curse by Nigeria, Iraq, and Brazil for a period of time, and the scape of Norway from the resource curse. The report also evaluates the current circumstances of Iraq to determine which direction the resource curse will take. Several recommendations are presented to direct Iraq out of the resource curse. / text

The extraction of natural resources can lead to higher incomes and standards of living for local areas, but resource exploitation, a lack of broad economic development, and an excess amount of environmental pollution can come with this activity. This dissertation analyzes the short and long run economic, public health, and demographic consequences of economic development via natural resources. It expands upon the current non-renewable resource extraction, "resource curse," and local community health literatures by using county data for the entire U.S. spanning over a century, capturing both short and long run impacts over various time periods, on net-migration, mortality, natality, local economic activity, and environmental impacts. What drove coal production in the U.S. during the twentieth century? How effective were the operators at predicting and responding to changes in price? Did coal mining industries provide broad economic benefits to local communities in non-mining sectors? Did the impacts differ over time? Has natural resource extraction activity caused mortality in the area to increase? To answer these questions I collected, compiled, and digitized a long run panel database of county level mining activity, mortality, natality, and pollution spanning the entire U.S. The dissertation identifies the short and long run net effects of natural resource extraction activity with time-varying measures, and an IV approach that isolates changes in local mining activity independent of local conditions and outcomes. The dissertation shows that coal producers responded to variation in prices, and were aware and responded to past price behavior. Chapter 3 shows increased levels of coal production had positive net impacts on county population and manufacturing employment over an initial ten year span, then became negative over the subsequent decade. This provides evidence that the existence of a "resource curse" on local manufacturing is a long run phenomena. Chapter 4 shows that extraction activity increased infant and total mortality, had no impact on contemporaneous total cancer mortality, and may be driven by areas where coal mining was historically prevalent. Past and present mining activity is strongly related to local pollution, supporting the idea that increasing local environmental pollution increases mortality.

Numerous studies have confirmed a statistically significant negative relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. This has been labeled “The Resource Curse”. In this paper we try to explain why Botswana, a country heavily dependent on its diamond industry, has managed to generate sustainable growth. Economists have advanced several explanations for the negative impact of natural resources on long-term growth. This paper focuses on the following important problems: First, a boom in a natural resource can pull resources away from other sectors of the economy, thus harming their international competitiveness, a phenomenon called the Dutch disease. Second, abundance in natural resources may lead to poor institutional quality in many countries. Thanks to conservative fiscal policies and accumulation of foreign reserves the local currency did not appreciate during the boom, and Botswana avoided the most severe symptoms of the Dutch disease. Historical tradition of democratic procedures and sound institutions at the time of diamond discovery has contributed to a high institutional quality in Botswana.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--UCLA, 2009. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 166-171).