<p><strong>As the public becomes more concerned with the natural environment, one of the major topics discussed is the oil. Since there is no true source of knowledge how long the oil can continue to be extracted, it is interesting to know how long the world can benefit from such as scarce resource. Instead of idly watching as oil production decreases with time, which pre-measures could be taken in order to minimize a negative impact on an economy? The UAE is a thriving oil rich countries which for the past 30 years have experienced a vast oil wealth. Even though the oil gave wealth to the UAE, they should avoid any future oil dependency since it could negatively affect its now flourishing economy. Therefore, for the UAE to continue growing in the future it is in the best interest for the government to focus on a diversifying strategy that promotes the non-oil economy. By referring to concepts and theories of previous research in this field such as the Solow growth model, Resource curse and Dutch disease the authors find that the UAE had managed to diversify or not. Three sectors in different periods between 1970 and 2007 were measured: The oil sector, the non-oil sector and the government sector. Diversification changes means a decreasing dependency of the oil sector to the non-oil sector while the latter instead depends more on the government sector. Using British Petroleum (2008) and United Nations (2008) as sources, data was collected in order to draw a time-series regression analysis and test empirically for these diversification trends. The results for all periods confirmed that the UAE have indeed diversified and it could thus be observed that it started its successful strategy already in the 1970s. With the right government policy investments and the stability in the union, the UAE prevented from becoming dependent on oil and thereby not crowding out its important non-oil economy. </strong></p> / <p><strong>Med en ökad allmän medvetenhet angående naturmiljön så är oljan bland det mest omtalande temat. Eftersom inget vet exakt hur länge oljan kan utvinnas, är det intressant att veta hur länge världen kan förlita sig på en sådan begränsad resurs. Finns det förebyggande medel för att minska en negativ verkan på ekonomin istället för att passivt bevittna en sjunkande oljeproduktion? Förenta Arabemiraten (FAE) är en framgångsrik union som under de senaste 30 åren har åtnjutit en omfattande oljerikedom. Trots att oljan lade grunden för tillväxten i FAE, så börs unionen undvika sitt oljeberoende eftersom den negativt kan påverka den nuvarande blomstrande ekonomin. Således, för att bibehålla tillväxten i FAE för framtiden, borde det vara i statens största intresse att fokusera på en differentierings-strategi som främjar icke-oljans ekonomi. För att veta om FAE faktiskt har differentierat sig eller inte, används koncept och teorier för tidigare forskning kring områdets som t.ex. Solows tillväxtmodel, Resursförbannelsen och holländska sjukan. Tre sektorer mättes i olika perioder mellan 1970-2007: oljesektorn, icke-sektorn och statssektorn. Icke-olje sektorn förväntas minska oljeberoendet samt öka beroendet av statssektorn vilket resulterar i en differentieringstrend i ekonomin. Genom källor från British Petroleum (2008) och Förenta Nationerna (2008)  har data insamlats för att empiriskt testa en tidsserie regression och se förändringar mellan sektorerna. Under alla perioder i FAE blev en differentieringstrend bekräftad och man kunde därför se att denna framgångsrika strategi redan åtogs i 1970-talet. Med effektiva investeringar i den offentliga sektorn samt en hållbar stabilitet i unionen, undvek FAE ett oljeberoende och därmed främjade icke-olje ekonomin.</strong><strong></strong></p>

This report, rooted in the conflict over the control of natural resource wealth, departs from the widely-accepted findings of two disparate literatures. First, while recent analyses correctly conclude that natural resources rents play a contingent role in development, this study deviates from the conventional wisdom attributing the variation of the resource curse to formal institutions. Secondly, as opposed to the recent wave of “political insurance” arguments that ascribe the creation of reforms to weak incumbents attempting to tie the hands of their successors, I argue that actors pursue similar institutional reforms for economic and political reasons. I build on these literatures by examining the commitment to a specific government institution—stabilization funds, which manage the fluctuations of natural resource rents and stop natural resource wealth from being a curse—across three natural resource-rich Latin American countries: Chile, Mexico and Venezuela. Paradoxically, because successful stabilization funds provide greater political benefits when rents are saved, I argue that these institutions only tie the hands of political successors from using rents for political purposes when they are created for economic purposes. / text

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Submitted by Evelyn Edith Contreras Medrano (contrerasmedrano@gmail.com) on 2017-03-10T21:05:13Z No. of bitstreams: 1 EContreras 2016 - Local Institutions and Natural Resources vf.pdf: 2289932 bytes, checksum: 3e134974c30ddcb38184183d421e24e7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2017-03-20T13:10:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 EContreras 2016 - Local Institutions and Natural Resources vf.pdf: 2289932 bytes, checksum: 3e134974c30ddcb38184183d421e24e7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-22T18:33:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 EContreras 2016 - Local Institutions and Natural Resources vf.pdf: 2289932 bytes, checksum: 3e134974c30ddcb38184183d421e24e7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-08 / After decades of research, there is still no consensus in the literature regarding the effects of natural resource abundance on the economic and political performance of a territory. This research aims to contribute to this discussion, by analyzing the role of institutions on explaining the relationship between natural resource-based revenues and the provision of public goods at the local level. In order to do so, I test the mechanisms previously proposed in the literature for explaining the natural resource curse effect at the national level (mediation and moderation effects of institutional quality), using cross-sectional data of Peruvian municipalities located in the Andean highlands, for the 2011-2014 period. The identification strategy proposed uses as source of exogenous variation for revenues, the location of natural resources and its value among the territory, and a set of rules established by law for the redistribution of natural resource-based revenues to the local governments. In order to deal with the endogeneity of institutional quality, I include 2SLS estimations, using the presence of 'Peasant Communities' (Comunidades Campesinas) as an instrumental variable. The results show some evidence of a positive effect of natural resource-based revenues on the provision of local public infrastructure (water, public lightning and rural roads), a null effect on education results, and a negative effect on health campaigns. However, regarding the role of institutional quality on explaining these effects, I find no significant effects for all of the outcomes and samples analyzed.

La chute récente du prix des matières premières a montré la vulnérabilité que pouvait impliquer une trop forte dépendance des économies aux revenus provenant des ressources naturelles. Dans le premier chapitre, les résultats que nous obtenons indiquent que les prix des matières premières sont un indicateur important du risque pays des exportateurs, ce qui n’est pas le cas des pays qui sont importateurs. Bien que les pays exportateurs soient aujourd’hui ceux dont le défaut externe est le plus probable, il n’apparaît pas de prime de risque supplémentaire liée à la détention de leurs obligations. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous étudions le lien entre les termes de l’échange et le taux de change effectif réel entre et de exportateurs de matières premières . Il existe une relation de long terme entre les termes de l’échange des pays exportateurs et leur taux de change réel. Les termes de l’échange n’ont pas d’impact à court-terme sur les taux de change effectifs réels. Néanmoins, nous montrons grâce à l’estimation d’un modèle à seuil à transition lisse en panel PSTR , qu’ une forte baisse du prix du pétrole (entre 25% et 36%) donnent un pouvoir explicatif aux termes de l’échange. Même si la question est encore largement débattue dans la littérature, l’idée qu’il existe une "malédiction des ressources naturelles" a fait sa place. Les pays fortement dotés en ressources naturelles auraient en moyenne une croissance économique plus faible que ceux qui n’en sont pas pourvus. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous proposons une méta-analyse basée sur un échantillon de 67 études empiriques qui étudient le lien entre ressources naturelles et croissance économique. Sur la base d’un ensemble de coefficients estimés, nos résultats montrent qu’il existe une "faible" malédiction des ressources. / The recent drop in commodity prices showed the high vulnerability implied by being too much dependent on revenues stemming from natural resources. In the first chapter, we look into the way financial markets assess the market risk of twenty-two emerging economies. More precisely, the purpose of this chapter is to investigate how natural resources are incorporated in the way international investors perceived the ability to service external debt obligationsduring the 2003-2014 period. The results indicate that commodity prices are an important driver of sovereign spreads in the case of exporters while it is not the case for importing countries. In the second chapter, we investigate the link between energy prices and the real effective exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. Estimating a panel cointegration relation between the real effective exchange rate and its fundamentals, we provide evidence for the existence of both energy and commodity currencies and we show that when the oil market is highly volatile (downwards), currencies follow an "oil currency regime", terms-of trade becoming an important driver of the real exchange rate A conventional wisdom has spread in the literature stating that a high endowment in natural resources is detrimental for growth, yet the debate is still ongoing In this chapter, we aim at providing quantitative results on the magnitude of the link between natural resources and growth found in the literature, as well as discussing, on quantitative bases, whether the sources of heterogeneity are significant. To this end, we implement a meta-analysis based on 67 empirical studies that investigate the link between natural resources and growth, totaling 1405 estimates. The results show a "soft" curse that may be reverted together with the importance of institutions in mitigating the curse.

本篇論文透過國家脆弱程度與資源依賴之間的關係之研究以檢視資源詛咒。本論文寫作之目的在於探究即便國際社會逐漸增加對於透明性之訴求的情況下，撒哈拉以南非洲地區之非法自然資源貿易仍存在之緣由。文章主要討論三個問題：第一、國家脆弱程度是否對撒哈拉以南非洲地區國家之非法自然資源剝削造成影響？第二、在剛果的鈳鉭鐵礦貿易對於非法自然資源貿易透露出什麼訊息？第三、中國是如何對剛果開採的鈳鉭鐵礦之國際貿易造成影響？為找出上述問題之答案，本文運用了綜合的研究方法。以跨時間序列的回歸研究設計套用於49個撒哈拉以南非洲地區國家，用以解釋下述兩個變項之關係：IV代表脆弱國家指數、DV代表出口與服務占國內生產毛額之百分比。一項與波札那鑽石產業有關之剛果鈳鉭鐵礦貿易之個案研究，為非法貿易、來源、路線以及生存工具提供了更深入的觀察視野。最後，本文認為衰弱的中央政府，以及國際的漏洞使得自然資源的非法貿易成為可能。 / This thesis examines the resource curse through a study of the relationship between state fragility and resource dependency. The purpose of this thesis is to uncover why illegitimate trade of natural resources occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite greater international push for transparency. 3 main questions are posed; 1. Does state fragility impact illegitimate natural resource exploitation in SSA countries? 2. What information does the coltan trade in Congo reveal about illegitimate trade of natural resources? 3. How has the Chinese Gateway impacted the international trade of Congolese mined coltan? To answer these set of questions, a mixed methods research approach is employed. A cross times series regression research design with a data set of 49 SSA countries is used to identify and explain the relationship between two variables IV: Fragile State Index and DV: Exports and Services (% of GDP). A case study on the coltan trade in Congo in relation to Botswana’s Diamond Industry, provides a closer look at illegitimate trade, its sources, routes and means of survival. Ultimately this thesis argues that weakened central governments, along with international loopholes enables the illegitimate trade of natural resources.

This thesis seeks to verify the concept of so-called resource curse at the beginning of the new millennium. The theoretical part defines the symptoms of the alleged curse, curse transmission channels and criticism of the concept. Compared to other studies dealing with the theme of the resource curse this work is not focused on just one transmission channel. The practical part verifies several hypotheses established by comparing research papers on impacts of natural resources. The validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, Dutch disease symptoms and a negative impact on political institutions (inclination toward authoritarianism, high level of corruption, high government spending, low efficiency of economic and political decision-making and low investment in education) is verified. For the analysis have been selected two African countries (Nigeria and Botswana) and two advanced countries (Canada and Norway). The last part of this thesis provides policy implications. The results confirm the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis for selected commodities in the long term and some of the symptoms of Dutch disease at the beginning of the new millennium. Hypotheses regarding the impact on the political institutions have not been confirmed, since the results varied across the countries. The high vulnerability of the countries to movements in commodity prices was found.

The thesis is concerned with the influence of the income from oil industry on the economies of Algeria and the United Arab Emirates in the years 2000-2015. The topic is analysed from the point of view of the resource curse theory. This theory is defined as a negative relationship between excess of a non-renewable resource and economic performance. Alongside with the negative economic growth, the experts defined other factors linked to the resource curse. The method used in the thesis is an analysis of these indicators on the example of Algeria and the UAE, and subsequently the dangers of resource curse are identified. The thesis evaluates, based on the comparison of the performance of selected factors, the economical and institutional development of the chosen countries. In the conclusion the diversification efforts of the UAE in the economic field and relatively safe economic development of Algeria are commented. More or less positive tendencies may be observed also in the development of most of the institutional indicators of both countries.

Diplom thesis discusses a question of influence of mineral resources on politics and economics in chosen countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. The paradox of low economic development of many resource rich countries significantly engaged in international trade is often discussed by economic experts. I decided to focus on Sub-Saharan Africa because I consider this region to be unable to fully use its potential for economic development despite being very rich in natural resources.Target of this thesis is to find out which natural resources exist in chosen countires, how the countries manage them, how successfull their economic development is, which problems they currently handle and how their current situation is related to their historic, cultural and politic background. For the purpose of my thesis I have chosen Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo and Botswana.

The main part of this thesis is composed of three separate chapters, each using an innovative approach to analysing externalities from economic activity. The general introduction and overall conclusion sections complete the structure of the thesis. Chapter one examines the value of statistical life, an essential parameter used in ascribing monetary values to the mortality costs of air pollution in health risk analyses. This willingness to pay estimate is virtually non-existent for most developing countries. In the absence of local estimates, two major benefit transfer approaches lend themselves to the estimation of the value of statistical life: the value transfer method and the meta-regression analysis. Using Nigeria as a sample country, we find that the latter method is better tailored than the former for incorporating many characteristics that vary between study sites and policy sites into its benefit transfer application. It is therefore likely to provide more accurate value of statistical life predictions for very low-income countries. Employing the meta-regression method, we find Nigeria’s value of statistical life estimate to be $489,000. Combining this estimate with dose response functions from the epidemiological literature, it follows that if Nigeria had mitigated its 2006 particulate air pollution to the World Health Organisation standards, it could have avoided at least 58,000 premature deaths and recorded an avoided mortality related welfare loss of about $28 billion or 19 percent of the nation’s GDP for that year. The second chapter applies the quantile fixed effects technique in exploring the CO2 environmental Kuznets curve within two groups of economic development (OECD and Non-OECD countries) and six geographical regions – West, East Europe, Latin America, East Asia, West Asia and Africa. A comparison of the findings with those of the conventional fixed effects method reveals that the latter may depict a flawed summary of the prevailing income-emissions nexus depending on the conditional quantile examined. We also extend the Machado and Mata decomposition method to the Kuznets curve framework to explore the most important explanations for the carbon emissions gap between OECD and Non-OECD countries. We find a statistically significant OECD-Non-OECD emissions gap and this contracts as we ascend the emissions distribution. Also, had the Non-OECD group the incomes of the OECD group, the former would pollute 26 to 40 percent more than the latter ceteris paribus. The decomposition further reveals that there are non-income related factors working against the Non-OECD group’s greening. We tentatively conclude that deliberate and systematic mitigation of current CO2 emissions in the Non-OECD group is required. The final chapter employs the Arellano-Bond difference GMM method in investigating the oil curse in OECD and Non-OECD oil exporting countries. Empirical studies investigating the natural resource curse theory mostly employ cross-country and panel regression techniques subject to endogeneity bias. Also, most of these studies employ GDP in its aggregate or per-capita terms as the outcome variable in their analyses. However, the use of GDP measures of income for resource curse investigations does not portray the true incomes of resource intensive economies. Standard national accounts treat natural resource rents as a positive contribution to income without making a corresponding adjustment for the value of depleted natural resource stock. This treatment, inconsistent with green national accounting, leads to a positive bias in the national income computations of resource rich economies. Our paper deviates from most empirical studies in the literature by using the Arellano-Bond difference GMM method. We test the robustness of the curse in the predominantly used measures of national income, GDP, by investigating the theme in genuine income measures of economic output as well. We employ two alternative measures of resource intensity in our explorations: the share of oil rents in GDP and per-capita oil reserves. Our results provide evidence of the curse in Non-OECD countries employing aggregate and per-capita measures of genuine income. On the other hand, we find oil abundance to be a blessing rather than a curse to the OECD countries in our sample.