Diplomová práce - abstrakt Dulovcová Iva Abstract The main objective of this Master thesis is to test the hypothesis that economic dependence on the export of minerals allows the monopolization of power and thus reduces the possibility of democracy. The hypothesis will be tested on cases of mineral economies in Peru, Bolivia and Chile. The hypothesis is based on the resource curse theory, which assumes a negative relationship between the presence of natural resources, their export, and level of democracy. In this thesis I expanded this theory with mineral economies factor, therefore beyond purely petroleum countries. Another expansion of the theory lies with international dimension that strongly influences events in selected countries. The thesis will analyze cases of Peru, Bolivia and Chile, especially role of natural resources in these countries, but also economic results and role of democracy in selected countries. In this thesis I use qualitative and quantitative elements. Economic and political development will be analyzed on the basis of process analysis method and method of dependence on previous development. The validity of theoretical concept for these cases will be tested on the basis of the compliance method. Quantitative part of the thesis will be based on causal mechanisms designed by Ross. By...

The resource curse hypothesis suggests that resource-rich countries (especially oil-dependent economies) show lower economic growth rate as compared to resource-poor countries. We contribute to this literature by providing empirical evidence on a new transmission channel of the resource curse, namely the negative long-run effect of oil rents on the quality of education. Our empirical analysis for more than 70 countries from the period of 1995–2015 shows a significantly positive effect of oil rents on the quantity of education measured by government spending on primary and secondary education. However, we find a robust and negative long-run effect of oil rents dependency on the objective and subjective indicators of quality of education. Further, panel regressions with country and year fixed effects support our cross-country findings on the negative effect of oil rents dependency on the quality of education.

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Thesis (MPhil) Stellenbosch University, 2014 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Existence of natural resources in majority of African countries has been identified to support further development due to continuously increase in commodity revenues. However, the resource curse presents critical aspects of resource intensive economies such as short-term benefits of commodity revenues, limited economic diversification and unstable government. Due to natural resource abundance in Africa, extractive industries are essential in the domestic economic system, although, the disadvantages based on the resource curse theory, question the support of commodity revenues in Africa’s development. South America views the issues of extractive industries from a different perspective by analysing the related developmental approaches namely conventional extractivism, neo-extractivism and post-extractivism. While South American countries are in different transition phases of extractivism, Africa is dominated solely by conventional extractivism. This results in varying degrees of social and environmental impacts on the African continent. However, Africa’s transition towards neo- or post-extractivism will limit the problems of the resource curse and offers a more sustainable resource management of the extractive industries. The Environmental Kuznets’ Curve (EKC) supports the principle of developed and recently industrialised countries by relying on the economic development, which will reduce environmental degradation automatically by achieving a specific turning point. The three phases of EKC can be related to different stages of economic development, as well as to the three extractivism approaches. Therefore, transitions from conventional extractivism to neo-extractivism and finally to post-extractivism have to occur to stabilise economic development and reduce environmental degradation. Within this process of transition towards more sustainable extractivism approaches, the principle of “Sustainable Structural Transformation” (SST) is applicable. SST was described in the UNCTAD report (2012) as a tool to reduce environmental impacts while continuing to provide for the demand of an increasing global population. Neo- and post-extractivism approach supports the concept of SST, which primarily emphasises more efficient technologies, new economic activities, labour productivity and regulations. The foundation of SST is based on resource decoupling in order to separate economic developmental process from natural resource extraction while minimizing environmental impacts. For the application of SST and thus for the transition of extractivism, reinvestment is essential to create a diversified economy. While reinvestment can take place in various forms, the World Bank (2011) identified three types of wealth namely natural, produced and intangible capital contributing to the total wealth of a country. However, developing countries prioritise natural wealth in comparison to other forms of wealth; therefore, reinvestment has to take place in other types of wealth namely intangible and produced wealth in order to achieve sustainable development in Africa. UNCTAD (2012) considers SST as a framework without an attempt of creating a “one-size-fits-all” solution. This understanding is crucial for the transition from one phase of extractivism to another. Depending on the context of a country, tools have to be adapted to support the needed transition. These existing differences are presented in the case studies of Nigeria and Botswana, which are two developing countries in Africa but they present different stages of extractivism and resource management. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Daar is vasgestel dat die beskikbaarheid van natuurlike hulpbronne in ’n meerderheid van Afrikalande verdere ontwikkeling ondersteun deur ’n ononderbroke toename in grondstofinkomstes. Die hulpbronvloek wys egter kritisie aspekte van hulpbron-intensiewe ekonomieë uit. Van hierdie aspekte sluit in korttermynvoordele van grondstofinkomstes, beperkte ekonomiese diversifisering en onstabiele regerings. Weens die oorvloed van natuurlike hulpbronne in Afrika is ontginningsnywerhede onontbeerlik in die binnelandse ekonomiese stelsel, alhoewel die nadele wat deur die hulpbronvloekteorie uitgewys word die ondersteuning van grondstofinkomstes in Afrika se ontwikkeling bevraagteken. Suid-Amerika beskou die kwessie van ontginningsnywerhede vanuit ’n ander perspektief deur die verwante ontwikkelingsbenaderings, naamlik konvensionele ontginning, neo-ontginning en postontginning, te ontleed. Alhoewel Suid-Amerikaanse lande in ander oorgangsperiodes van ontginning verkeer, word Afrika slegs deur konvensionele ontginning oorheers. Dit lei tot wisselende grade van sosiale en omgewingsimpakte op die Afrika-kontinent. Afrika se oorgang na neo- en postontginning sal egter die uitdagings van hulpbronvloek beperk en bied ’n meer onderhoubare hulpbronbestuur van die ontginningsnywerhede. Die Omgewing-Kuznetskurwe (OKK) ondersteun die beginsel van ontwikkelde en onlangs geïndustrialiseerde lande. Hierdie ondersteuning geskied deur staat te maak op die ekonomiese ontwikkeling wat outomaties omgewingsagteruitgang sal verminder deur ’n spesifieke keerpunt te bereik. Die drie fases van die OKK kan met verskillende fases van ekonomiese ontwikkeling asook die drie ontginningsbenaderings verbind word. Om hierdie rede moet oorgange van konvensionele ontginning na neo-ontginning en uiteindelik postonginning plaasvind om die ekonomiese ontwikkeling te stabiliseer en die omgewingsagteruitgang te beperk. Die beginsel van “Onderhoubare Strukturele Transformasie” (OST) is veral toepaslik in die oorgangsproses na meer onderhoubare ontginningsbenaderings. Die OST is in die verslag van die Verenigde Nasies se Kongres van Handel en Ontwikkeling (VNKHEO) (2012) beskryf as ’n middel om omgewingsimpakte te beperk terwyl dit in die behoefte van ’n toenemend groeiende wêreldbevolking voorsien. Neo- en postontginningsbenaderings ondersteun die OST-konsep wat veral meer doeltreffende tegnologieë, nuwe ekonomiese aktiwiteite, arbeidsproduktiwiteit en regulasies benadruk. Vir die toepassing van OST en dus die verandering in ontginning is herbelegging noodsaaklik om ’n gediversifiseerde ekonomie te bewerkstellig. Alhoewel herbelegging op verskillende maniere kan plaasvind, het die Wêreldbank (2011) drie tipes rykdom geïdentifiseer, naamlik natuurlike, vervaardigde en ontasbare kapitaal wat tot die algehele rykdom van ’n land bydra. Ontwikkelende lande gee voorkeur aan natuurlike rykdom teenoor ander vorme van rykdom. Om hierdie rede moet herbelegging binne die ander vorme van rykdom plaasvind om onderhoubare ontwikkeling in Afrika teweeg te bring. Hierdie ander vorme van rykdom sluit ontasbare en vervaardigde rykdom in. VNKHEO (2012) beskou OST as ’n raamwerk wat nie poog om ’n “one-size-fits-all”-oplossing voort te bring nie. ’n Oorkoepelende benadering is kardinaal om die verandering in ontginning teweeg te bring. Afhangende van die konteks van ’n land moet middels aangepas word vir die nodige ondersteuning van die verandering. Hierdie bestaande verskille word in die gevallestudies van Nigerië en Botswana uitgewys. Dié twee lande dui op twee verskillende ontginningstadia en hulpbronbestuur.

La dépendance aux ressources naturelles entraîne de nombreux défis pour les décideurs publics. Fort de ce constat, se pose avec acuité la question suivante: dans quelle mesure les gouvernements des pays d’Afrique sub-Saharienne sont à même d’employer leurs leviers de politiques fiscales et monétaires afin de limiter les effets négatifs de la dépendance aux ressources naturelles et d’entraîner un cercle économique vertueux? Le second chapitre de la thèse distingue les mécanismes de court terme et de long terme de la dépendance aux ressources naturelles en utilisant une approche en deux temps: d’abord les variables explicatives sont cointégrées pour établir les relations de long terme puis un modèle à correction d’erreur est estimé pour capter les relations de court terme de retour à l’équilibre.Sur le long terme, l’effet négatif de la dépendance est confirmé. Cependant, les pays dotés d’institutions de mauvaise qualité sont plus vulnérables car non seulement ils subissent l’impact de long terme mais la dépendance aux ressources affecte négativement le processus de retour à l’équilibre sur le court terme. Enfin, les résultats montrent que dans le cadre d’institutions de qualité supérieure, la dépendance aux ressources naturelles peut avoir un impact positif sur la reprise économique. Dans un troisième chapitre, un modèle pvar compare les intéractions macro-économiques dans la zone monétaire franc CFA, ancré à l’euro, par rapport aux pays comparables hors zone franc CFA. En prenant en compte la forte présence de matières premières dans leurs exportations, les résultats montrent que la zone franc CFA ne subit pas de perte de compétitivité de par son appartenance à une zone monétaire. En revanche, les investissements directs de l’étranger n’entraînent pas des effets positifs sur la croissance de la même ampleur que ceux observés hors de la zone franc CFA. Le quatrième chapitre contribue à la littérature associée à la gestion optimale des ressources fiscales, notamment dans le cadre d’un boom des matières premières. Les résultats montrent que dans le cadre d’un accès réduit aux marchés de capitaux, les périodes de boom de matières premières sont des opportunités capitales pour stimuler la croissance via l’investissement public, alors que les contraintes fiscales sont temporairement relâchées. Toutefois, l’efficacité de ces accroissements d’investissement est conditionnelle à un niveau d’endettement public soutenable. / This thesis belongs to the literature on natural resource dependence and brings a new perspective by focusing on the sub-Saharan African region. This dependence introduces numerous challenges for policy makers both in terms of fiscal and monetary policy. The main research question explored in this thesis is the following : to which extent sub- Saharan African governments can rely on fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the adverse impacts of commodity dependence and trigger positive spillover and achieve sustainable growth? The second chapter of the thesis unfolds short-term versus long-term mechanisms of the resource curse by using a two-step analysis: an error-correction model is performed after co-integrating the explana- tory variables. Main findings highlight the crucial role of institutions. On the long run, the negative impact of the dependence is confirmed independently of the institution quality. However, countries with weak institutions are more vulnerable to the curse because the re- source dependence not only negatively impacts long-term growth but also adversely impacts the recovery process. Finally, in a strong in- stitutional environment, results points to a potential positive impact of natural resources during recovery process. In the third chapter, a panel vector auto-regressive model compares macro-economic interactions in the pegged CFA monetary union versus a comparable sample. Considering their export structure dominated by raw commodities, results suggests that the CFA zone members do not suffer from a loss of competitiveness from belonging to the monetary union. However, foreign direct investments fail to generate the same spillover effect in the CFA zone compared to non-CFA countries. The forth chapter provides insights on the optimal management of fiscal resources, especially during a windfall period. Growth elasticities of different government choices regarding revenue allocation is performed. Results show that in a con- text of limited access to capital, resource windfall are considered as a crucial opportunity to scale up investment. In fact, below a level of public capital stock (estimated around 750 USD per capita), public investment during a boom has a four-fold higher impact on growth than above the threshold. This scaling up is conditional on low levels of public debt: countries featuring unsustainable public debt levels should prioritize the restoration of stronger foreign reserves

There is growing consensus that unless resource-rich developing countries improve their domestic governance systems, rising exploitation of mineral, oil and gas resources may result in long-term adverse developmental outcomes associated with the “resource curse”. Despite the consensus, reforms do not abound. This dissertation investigates the obstacles to such reforms, and the mechanisms and strategies that can possibly overcome these obstacles. I argue that two trapping mechanisms are binding these countries to a “weak governance curse”. One mechanism is the phenomenon of path dependence, which makes a dysfunctional governance path initiated at a past historical juncture resistant to change over time. The other mechanism is rent-seeking behaviour associated with high resource rents, which creates perverse incentives for political and economic actors to resist reforms. The Law and Development literature has recently produced a rich body of knowledge on governance reform in developing countries, yet it has largely neglected the potential role of innovative global regulatory mechanisms, beyond development assistance, in this process. I argue that this evolving literature ought to draw from global regulation studies to investigate the interaction between unconventional global regulatory mechanisms and domestic governance reform. In this thesis I analyze whether extraterritorial home country regulations, such as anti-bribery, anti-money laundering and securities disclosure regulations, and transnational public-private partnerships, such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, may offer institutional opportunities for external and internal actors to facilitate policy reforms in resource-rich and governance-poor countries. My conclusion is twofold. First, there is reason for cautious optimism regarding the potential for unconventional global regulatory mechanisms to provoke positive feedback effects in domestic governance reform. These mechanisms can open innovative institutional pathways of influence to outsiders and insiders promoting governance reform. Second, instead of searching for a regulatory silver bullet, the most promising way to promote reforms in resilient dysfunctional governance systems is to make use of the wide range of conventional and unconventional mechanisms available. A constellation of regulatory instruments opens up the possibility for outside and inside reformers to benefit from a different policy mix of available mechanisms, depending on the specific circumstances of a given country at a particular time.

There is growing consensus that unless resource-rich developing countries improve their domestic governance systems, rising exploitation of mineral, oil and gas resources may result in long-term adverse developmental outcomes associated with the “resource curse”. Despite the consensus, reforms do not abound. This dissertation investigates the obstacles to such reforms, and the mechanisms and strategies that can possibly overcome these obstacles. I argue that two trapping mechanisms are binding these countries to a “weak governance curse”. One mechanism is the phenomenon of path dependence, which makes a dysfunctional governance path initiated at a past historical juncture resistant to change over time. The other mechanism is rent-seeking behaviour associated with high resource rents, which creates perverse incentives for political and economic actors to resist reforms. The Law and Development literature has recently produced a rich body of knowledge on governance reform in developing countries, yet it has largely neglected the potential role of innovative global regulatory mechanisms, beyond development assistance, in this process. I argue that this evolving literature ought to draw from global regulation studies to investigate the interaction between unconventional global regulatory mechanisms and domestic governance reform. In this thesis I analyze whether extraterritorial home country regulations, such as anti-bribery, anti-money laundering and securities disclosure regulations, and transnational public-private partnerships, such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, may offer institutional opportunities for external and internal actors to facilitate policy reforms in resource-rich and governance-poor countries. My conclusion is twofold. First, there is reason for cautious optimism regarding the potential for unconventional global regulatory mechanisms to provoke positive feedback effects in domestic governance reform. These mechanisms can open innovative institutional pathways of influence to outsiders and insiders promoting governance reform. Second, instead of searching for a regulatory silver bullet, the most promising way to promote reforms in resilient dysfunctional governance systems is to make use of the wide range of conventional and unconventional mechanisms available. A constellation of regulatory instruments opens up the possibility for outside and inside reformers to benefit from a different policy mix of available mechanisms, depending on the specific circumstances of a given country at a particular time.

Minerals are important natural resources and their development is a historically old, yet new, idea for creating economic prosperity in developing countries. Various researchers have evolved several arguments regarding the impact of mineral resources on development and growth, but they have yet to furnish a practical method of economic evaluation of mineral resources development. This thesis focuses on the economic impact of mineral resource development in a small developing country in the South Pacific Region, namely Fiji. Fiji has expectations and faces challenges in its natural resources development. The Namosi project, a large copper-gold mine development, has been proposed and is under consideration by the Fijian government, who is deliberating on whether mining resources should be developed as a means to add to its prosperity and economic growth or alternatively conserved from the standpoint of the environment and stability. In this study, four significant issues are analyzed viz.: 1) Whether the Namosi mine development project gives a positive net private return. 2) Whether the predicted amount of revenue flowing to the Fijian government from the Namosi mine development exceeds the estimated external cost (in this case, environmental cost) from its development. 3) The impacts of the project on various levels of the Fijian economy, and whether the mine development in Fiji results in an enclave industry; and whether mining has strong or weak backward and forward production linkages with the rest of the Fijian economy. 4) Whether “Dutch disease” will ensue from mining development in Fiji and its level of severity. Regarding issue 1) above, Private Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is conducted by applying the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the Namosi mining project based on financial projections. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to allow for possible variations in copper and gold prices. This analysis indicates that given the anticipated metal prices, private returns from this mining development are likely to be positive. Indeed, the current high metal prices would lead to high private returns. Regarding issue 2) above, Social Cost-Benefit Analyses are attempted. Under the given circumstances, the results show that the benefits of the mine project, as a whole for its 29-year life, substantially outweigh the environmental costs of the project to Fiji. However, due to a lack of available data on the economic magnitude of environmental spillovers, only estimates of environmental costs of the Namosi mining development could be made. Regarding issue 3) above, Input-Output model analysis is performed. Fiji’s total output (without production from the Namosi mine) is found to be F$5,529.917 million. It is estimated that the Namosi project will increase the output of Fiji directly by F$465.574 million (which includes the production inducement effect) and will result in an increase of F$543.788 million in overall Fijian output (GDP). This increase will also be followed by an increased output of about F$10-30 million in related industries, such as in the commerce, transport, and insurance sectors. Based on this Input-Output analysis, it is found that Fiji’s mining sector is an export-oriented enclave industry and that the mining industry itself has very little influence on economic activity in other sectors of the economy. Regarding issue 4) above, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model analysis is applied. Evidence of the likely occurrence of Dutch disease can be detected from output indicators of each industry, consumer prices and exports. Examples of Dutch disease are as follows: a decrease in output of agricultural industries and in export-oriented domestic industries; an increase in consumer prices (inflation); a decrease of exports both in exportable agricultural products and in manufactured products oriented to exports. However, several macro-variables improve, such as employees’ income, trade (exports and imports), tax revenue, tariff revenue, VAT revenue, government account (savings and expenditure) and GDP etc. These results suggest that there could be a major increase in national welfare. Thus, from an economics point of view, it has been found (by comparing gains in Fijian government revenue with potential Fijian environmental costs) that it is very likely that development of the Namosi mine will result in a net social gain to Fiji. These results are based on the application of principles of social cost-benefit analysis and indicate that a Kaldor-Hicks improvement (a potential Pareto improvement) is likely for Fiji as a result of the mining development. This means that from the predicted net revenue gains of the Fijian government from mining, those who suffer environmental losses would be compensated and the government would still have some extra revenue left over. An actual Paretian improvement is also possible.

Cette thèse est composée de trois essais; dans le premier essai je traite les questions de la détermination, de la variance et des répercussions de la corruption. J’ai montré que la corruption est déterminée par la part des travailleurs non qualifiés sur la population. Si cette part est large alors il existe une corruption, si elle est faible la corruption est inexistante, et pour des niveaux intermédiaires, il existe une multiplicité d’équilibres. La corruption augmente les inégalités salariales entre travailleurs qualifiés et non qualifiés, et une perte de bien-être. Dans le deuxième essai je traite la question de lutte contre la corruption à travers l’incitation salariale. Avec une technologie de contrôle endogène, je montre que le gouvernement peut mieux accepter la corruption lorsqu’il est coûteux de contrôler. Lorsqu’il est optimal de combattre alors le gouvernement peut le faire soit à travers des salaires d’efficience ou soit par le contrôle. Néanmoins le rôle des salaires d’efficience dans la lutte contre la corruption est moindre dans les sociétés avec un niveau de malhonnêteté élevé. Le troisième essai traite la malédiction des ressources naturelles. Je montre que l'éducation et la corruption sont déterminées conjointement ; les ressources naturelles affectent l’incitation à investir en éducation et en ‘rent-seeking’ ce qui en retour affecte la croissance. En outre, la relation entre une abondance et la malédiction des ressources naturelles n’est pas monotone. Pour un niveau d’inégalité d’accès à l’éducation faible et un coût élevé de participation dans la vie politique, un niveau de croissance élevé et la trappe à la pauvreté coexistent. / This dissertation consists of three essays. The topics cover determination, variance and repercussions of corruption (essay one), corruption deterrence through wage incentives (essay two), and natural resource curse (essay three). In the first essay, I show that for a larger population of unskilled labor, there is a widespread corruption and for a smaller population there is no corruption. For the intermediate levels there are multiple equilibria. On its consequences, corruption increases wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, and results in output and welfare losses. In the second essay, I argue that deterring corruption through efficiency wage may become prohibitively expensive. With endogenous monitoring technology that allows capturing the dual role of auditing, as a complement with and as a substitute for wage incentives, I find that the government is better-off accepting corruption when it is costly to monitor. When it is optimal to deter bribery, the government can do it either through efficiency wages or monitoring. The role of efficiency wages decreases in societies with higher level of dishonesty. In the third essay, I build a theory explaining a resource curse. In contrast to the existing literature which generally considers low education, corruption and natural resources separately, I combine three strands of literature. Natural resources affect incentives to invest in education and rent seeking that in turn affects growth. Second, the relationship between resource-abundance and resource-curse is non-monotonic. For low inequality in access to education and high cost of political participation, high-growth and poverty-trap equilibria co-exist.

La literatura ha documentado que los países más abundantes en recursos naturales tienden a registrar menores tasas de crecimiento que los países con menos recursos. Este fenómeno se conoce como la maldición de los recursos naturales. No obstante, diversos estudios sugieren que esta maldición no es provocada por la afluencia de recursos, sino que podría estar condicionada a la calidad de las instituciones del país. La presente investigación busca determinar el impacto de la abundancia del sector extractivo minero y la calidad institucional sobre el crecimiento económico en el Perú. Para ello, se utiliza un set de datos de series de tiempo para el periodo 1996T1-2018T4. Siguiendo la metodología de Johansen y Juselius (1990), se estima un modelo basado en la ecuación planteada por Sachs y Warner (1995) a la que se incorpora una variable que mide el componente institucional. Los resultados muestran que la riqueza del sector minero no presenta un impacto negativo per se sobre el crecimiento económico en el largo plazo, rechazándose así la hipótesis de la maldición de recursos para el caso peruano. Sin embargo, cuando se incluye el concepto de calidad institucional al análisis, los resultados varían a favor de la validación de la hipótesis, demostrando que, no es la abundancia de recursos la condición que obra en detrimento del desempeño final del crecimiento económico sino la existencia de instituciones de mala calidad en el Perú. / The literature has documented that countries with more natural resources tend to have lower growth rates than countries with fewer resources. This phenomenon is known as the Resource Curse. However, various studies suggest that this curse is not caused by the influx of resources, but could be conditioned by the quality of the country's institutions. This paper seeks to determine the impact of the abundance of the mining extractive sector and institutional quality on economic growth in Peru. To do this, a set of time series data is used for the period 1996Q1-2018Q4. Following the methodology of Johansen and Juselius (1990), a model based on the equation proposed by Sachs and Warner (1995) is estimated, incorporating a variable that measures the institutional component. The results show that the wealth of the mining sector does not present a negative impact per se on economic growth in the long term, thus rejecting the hypothesis of the resource curse for the Peruvian case. However, when the concept of institutional quality is included in the analysis, the results vary in favor of the validation of the hypothesis, showing that it is not the abundance of resources that is detrimental to the final performance of economic growth, but rather the existence of poor quality institutions in Peru. / Trabajo de investigación