The volatility of stock markets has important implications for investment decision making, financial stability and overall macroeconomic stability. This study examines the risk-return relationship as well as the behaviour of volatility of the South African equity markets using both aggregate, industrial level and sector level data. The study is divided into three parts. The first part investigates the behaviour of volatility in each of the industries, sectors and the benchmark series focussing on whether volatility is symmetric or asymmetric. Subsequently we investigate which, among the GARCH family of models appropriately captured the riskreturn relationship under which distributional assumption. The second part examines the riskreturn relationship on the SA stock market. The third part examines the long term trend of volatility and whether volatility significantly increases during financial crises and during major global shocks. The GARCH-M, EGARCH-M and TARCH-M models under the Gaussian, Student –t and the GED are used. The findings this study makes are as follows: firstly, there is no clear relationship between risk and return. Secondly, volatility is asymmetrical, implying that bad news has a greater effect on volatility than good news in the South African equity market. Thirdly, the TARCH-M model under the GED was found to be the most appropriate model. Fourthly, volatility increases during financial crises and major global shocks. Overall, volatility is generally not priced on the South African equity markets. Thus, both local and international investors need to consider other factors that influence returns such as skewness. The general increase in volatility during financial crises and major global shocks poses a major concern for policy makers as this may cause financial instability. Thus policy makers need to be mindful of the behaviour of volatility in the South African equity market in response to external shocks.

The analysis undertaken, firstly aims to identify the extent to which equities, their indexes and their derivatives priced in accordance with their fair value. Secondly, presuming that the traded values of the instruments do not in all instances equate to the fair value, the research aims to develop an effective means to identify and manage profitable opportunities arising from the mispricing. General concepts relating to profitability, trade identification, risk and continuous improvement of the processes are addressed. This includes recommendations on the management of the risks through a structured reporting process. The research looks at arbitrage trading in the South African market from the perspective of an empirical review into the market's participation in equity and equity derivative arbitrage. In addition to this empirical analysis, a time series analysis into various arbitrage strategies is conducted with the view to determining their relative profitability. The first component of the empirical research focuses on the arbitrage trading strategies adopted by a sample of 80 institutions. Where the institutions trade arbitrage strategies, the research undertook to establish what methods are used to identify, trade and manage the index arbitrage, single stock futures arbitrage, risk arbitrage, statistical arbitrage and volatility arbitrage trading opportunities that present themselves within the South African Market. Information gathered did not only focus on the actual trading strategies but also determined the relative cost structures, profitability and risk management processes that are employed to support these trading initiatives. The time series analysis focused on index futures, single stock futures, risk, dual listed and statistical arbitrage methods, and reflects the results before and after transaction costs. These arbitrage strategies were applied to the ALSI Top 40 index or its associated shares and generally spanned a period of about four years. Finally the research presents an arbitrage business model that is aimed at providing a blue print for arbitrage trading which covers: new arbitrage strategy, implementation, market risk, execution, profit, traders, cost Finally, the research provides a multiple regression method for application in identifying further arbitrage trading opportunities within the South African environment. / School of Business Leadaership / DBL

M.A. / Please refer to full text to view abstract

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Technology: Business Administration, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2014. / The performance of portfolios of a fixed-rate asset and a risky asset of major companies in a South African market index the FTSE/JSE with strategies which rebalances fixed proportions of wealth in every rebalancing period is analysed in a long term. Recent findings in portfolio management theory by Dempster, Evstigneev and Schenk-Hoppé (2010, 2008, 2007, 2003) and by Browne (1988) note optimality of fixed-mix portfolios which assert fast exponential growth in stationary markets. A quantitative analysis is performed to analyse quantifiable measures in order to optimize the application of self-financing constant rebalanced portfolio strategies that contribute to the financial engineered prospects suggested by Dempster et al. (2010) for fixed-mix portfolios. The comparative performance of fixed-mix portfolios with a proxy strategy and without proxy strategy relative to a buy and hold strategy shows the superiority of fixed-mix portfolios in generic market conditions. The research extends the utilization of constant rebalanced self-financing portfolio investment strategies by assessing the market price of risk under the mean-variance model of Markowitz (1952). Effective implementation tactics of the strategy are examined by focusing on the market risk and the financial risk. The frequent reversals and trending of stochastic asset prices in the financial market are analysed to adjust the market price of risk by considering tradable financial securities to determine the financial proxy of de-trending. The proxy hypothesis which evaluates the stationary financial condition in a fixed-mix portfolio is validated by an option-based myopic strategy using a lookback straddle option. A myopic strategy is a strategy which considers a single period ahead, Fabozzi, Forcardi and Kolm (2006). The realised growth under a financial proxy is found to have a linear strategic asset allocation with a low degree of concavity relative to a buy and hold performance in the market risk of self-financing portfolio strategies. / D

The analysis undertaken, firstly aims to identify the extent to which equities, their indexes and their derivatives priced in accordance with their fair value. Secondly, presuming that the traded values of the instruments do not in all instances equate to the fair value, the research aims to develop an effective means to identify and manage profitable opportunities arising from the mispricing. General concepts relating to profitability, trade identification, risk and continuous improvement of the processes are addressed. This includes recommendations on the management of the risks through a structured reporting process. The research looks at arbitrage trading in the South African market from the perspective of an empirical review into the market's participation in equity and equity derivative arbitrage. In addition to this empirical analysis, a time series analysis into various arbitrage strategies is conducted with the view to determining their relative profitability. The first component of the empirical research focuses on the arbitrage trading strategies adopted by a sample of 80 institutions. Where the institutions trade arbitrage strategies, the research undertook to establish what methods are used to identify, trade and manage the index arbitrage, single stock futures arbitrage, risk arbitrage, statistical arbitrage and volatility arbitrage trading opportunities that present themselves within the South African Market. Information gathered did not only focus on the actual trading strategies but also determined the relative cost structures, profitability and risk management processes that are employed to support these trading initiatives. The time series analysis focused on index futures, single stock futures, risk, dual listed and statistical arbitrage methods, and reflects the results before and after transaction costs. These arbitrage strategies were applied to the ALSI Top 40 index or its associated shares and generally spanned a period of about four years. Finally the research presents an arbitrage business model that is aimed at providing a blue print for arbitrage trading which covers: new arbitrage strategy, implementation, market risk, execution, profit, traders, cost Finally, the research provides a multiple regression method for application in identifying further arbitrage trading opportunities within the South African environment. / School of Business Leadaership / DBL

M. Tech. Business Administration / The objectives of this study is to measure the risk propensity of entrepreneurs from four nationalities in the Gauteng region, namely Chinese, Zimbabweans, Pakistanis and South Africans. The study tries to find out if entrepreneurship and risk taking is determined by culture. It also looks at how the businesses of these people are performing.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This assignment sets out to address the concept of equity duration, where equity duration is viewed as a measure of the interest rate sensitivity of common stock's market value. The traditional use of standard dividend discount models, results in extremely long duration estimates for equities - in the order of 10 years for income stocks to 25 years and more for growth companies whose cash flows are not expected to materialize until some future period. Leibowitz (1986) identified an alternative approach for assessing equity duration empirically. These empirical estimates of actual stock price sensitivity to underlying changes in interest rates imply that equities behave as if they are much shorter duration instruments. Various attempts have been made to reconcile the difference between theoretical predictions of equity duration and empirical findings. The differences in duration of assets in place and growth opportunities are given as a possible reason for the above mentioned differences. It is argued that investment opportunities are similar to options a company has. These option-like characteristics of growth opportunities may alter the basic relationship between equity valuation and interest rate changes. The option framework suggests that the duration of growth companies may be shorter (not longer) than those of assets in place. The results from option theory can however not be applied directly to growth options, since some of the assumptions may not be valid in the case of growth options. The presence of these growth options makes it virtually impossible to calculate equity duration theoretically. This study empirically tests the relationship between growth opportunities and equity duration by focussing the attention on the interest rate sensitivity of South African growth companies. The following hypotheses regarding equity duration and growth companies are postulated: • There is a significant difference in interest rate sensitivity between growth companies and low-growth companies. • There is a significant difference between duration of growth companies measured using nominal interest rates and duration of growth companies using real interest rates. All non-mining companies on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange SA, for the period 1980 to 2000, were analysed. These companies were sorted into different portfolios that reflected their growth opportunities. Market capitalisation, book-to-market and price-earnings ratios were used as proxies to rank companies according to growth opportunities. The results from univariate regressions suggest positive duration for common equities. The negative relationship between equity returns and changes in nominal interest rates are independent of size, book-to-market or price-earnings ratios of the sampled companies. Including the market factor as an independent variable results in markedly different equity duration. The duration is correlated with size, as both coefficients and t-statistics increase when moving from small companies to larger companies. In addition, the small companies have negative not positive duration, as was the case for simple univariate regressions. There is also some evidence that high growth portfolios, as measured by low book-to-market and high price-earnings ratios, are less sensitive to interest rate changes than low growth portfolios. Employing all three Fama and French's factors, there is no longer a cross-sectional dependence on company size, with the mean duration being close to zero and statistically insignificant in virtually all cases. Also, when dividing changes in the nominal interest rate into changes in real rates and changes in inflation, it does not significantly affect the estimates of equity duration. The author found no evidence to support the stated hypotheses, when employing the Fama and French's three factor model. This may mean that the relationships are subsumed in the Fama and French risk factors. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie werkstuk bestudeer die konsep van die duur van gewone aandele (equity duration), waar die duur van 'n gewone aandeel gedefinieer word as 'n maatstaf van die rentekoerssensitiwiteit van die markwaarde van die aandeel. Die tradisionele gebruik van standaard dividend verdiskonterings modelle, lei tot uiters lang duur beramings vir gewone aandele - in die orde van 10 jaar vir inkomste aandele tot 25 jaar en meer vir groei ondernemings wie se kontantvloei nie verwag word om te materialiseer voor 'n sekere toekomstige datum nie. Leibowitz (1986) identifiseer 'n alternatiewe empiriese benadering vir die beraming van gewone aandeel duur. Hierdie empiriese bepaling van die sensitiwiteit van die werklike aandeelprys tot onderliggende veranderings in rentekoerse, impliseer dat gewone aandele reageer asof hulle baie korter duur instrumente is. Verskeie pogings is aangewend om die verskille tussen teoretiese voorspellings van gewone aandeel-duur en empiriese bevindings te rekonsilieer. Die verskille tussen duur van bates in plek en groei-geleenthede word aangevoer as 'n moontlike rede vir bogenoemde verskille. Dit word geargumenteer dat investeringsgeleenthede soortgelyk is aan die opsies wat 'n onderneming het. Hierdie opsie-soortgelyke eienskappe van groei-geleenthede kan die basiese verhouding tussen gewone aandeel waardasie en rentekoers verandering wysig. Die opsie raamwerk dui daarop dat die duur van groei-ondernemings korter kan wees (en nie langer nie) as die van bates in plek. Die resultate van opsie teorie kan egter nie direk toegepas word op groei-opsies nie, aangesien sekere van die aannames nie geldig mag wees in die geval van groei-opsies nie. Die teenwoordigheid van hierdie groei-opsies het tot gevolg dat dit feitlik onmoontlik is om gewone aandeel-duur teoreties te bereken. Die studie toets empiries die verhouding tussen groei-geleenthede en gewone aandeel-duur deur te fokus op die rentekoers sensitiwiteit van Suid Afrikaanse groei-ondernemings. Die volgende hipoteses met betrekking tot die gewone aandele duur en groei-ondernemings word gestel: • Daar is 'n betekenisvolle verskil in rentekoers sensitiwiteit tussen groei-ondernemings en lae groei-ondernemings. • Daar is 'n betekenisvolle verskil tussen duur van groei-ondernemings gemeet deur gebruik te maak van nominale rentekoerse en duur van groei-ondernemings deur gebruik te maak van reële rentekoerse. Alle nie-myn ondernemings op die Johannesburg Sekuriteite Beurs SA, vir die periode 1980 tot 2000, is ontleed. Hierdie ondernemings is gesorteer in verskillende portefeuljes wat hulle groei geleenthede reflekteer. Markkapitalisasie, boek-tot-markwaarde en prysverdienste verhoudings is gebruik as maatstawwe om ondernemings te rangskik volgens groeigeleenthede. Die resultate van enkel veranderlike regressies dui positiewe duur aan vir gewone aandele. Die negatiewe verhouding tussen aandeelopbrengs en verandering in nominale rentekoerse is onafhanklik van grootte, boek-tot-markwaarde of prysverdienste verhoudings vir die getoetste ondernemings. Indien die markfaktor ingesluit word, as 'n onafhanklike veranderlike, lei dit tot opvallend verskillende gewone aandeel-duur. Die duur is gekorreleer met grootte, met beide koëffisiënte en t-statistieke wat styg wanneer beweeg word van klein ondernemings tot groter ondernemings. Addisioneel, die klein ondernemings het negatiewe, nie positiewe duur, anders as in die geval van eenvoudige enkel veranderlike regressies. Daar is ook bewyse dat hoë groei portefeuljes, soos gemeet deur lae boek-tot-markwaarde en hoë prysverdienste verhoudings, minder sensitief is vir rentekoers veranderings as lae groei portefeuljes. Met die aanwending van al drie Fama en French se faktore is daar nie meer kruis-selektiewe afhanklikheid (cross-selectional dependence) op ondernemingsgrootte aanwesig nie, met die gemiddelde duur wat naby nul is en statisties onbedeidend in feitlik all gevalle is. Wanneer die verandering in die nominale rentekoers verdeel word in veranderings in reële koerse en veranderings in inflasie, beïnvloed dit ook nie betekenisvol die bepaalde gewone aandeel duur nie. Die outeur het met die gebruik van die Fama & French drie faktor model geen bewyse gevind wat die vermelde hipoteses staaf nie. Dit mag beteken dat die rente-risiko verwantskappe in die Fama en French risiko faktore vervat is.

Thesis (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the title suggests, the major challenge that this study faces is to set out and design a model for analysing and enabling the management of political risk as investment risk - a model that is both sensitive to and reflective of the comprehensive business and investment climate in a country, not only credit or country risk, or only pure political risk in its narrowest definition. In reading about past and more recent research in the field of political risk analysis, it becomes clear that many authors begin by noting the diversity and the discrepancies of the existing definitions of political risk, but evidence in political risk insurance shows that the major perceived political risks that investors insure their interests against seem to be confiscation, expropriation and nationalisation. In the light of this study's findings though, a case can be put forward for urging that the conceptualisation of political risk be extended to further include any or all of the micro political risk factors and their indicators that have been identified to ensure that political events do not impact negatively on a foreign company's profitability. Foreign investors put assets at risk to achieve their objectives and the assessment of these risks, including political risks, is the key to successful operations. Opportunities and risks are often two sides of the same coin and political risk comprises a large part of the environmental forces in terms of the management challenges a Multinational Company (MNC) faces in any investment climate. A firm's foreign investment strategy deals with the positioning of the organisation in an uncertain host country environment and investment climate. This study attempts to explain how a firm's political risk exposure, which refers to the sensitivity of a firm's projected profitability and operationability in a host country to changes in the investment climate, could be managed and reduced. It is hoped that political risk analysis and management can assist foreign operations in managing the risks that might have otherwise proven to be destructive to profitability and operationability. It is irresponsible to present a potential investor with a risk assessment that does not incorporate political risk factors and their indicators, let alone environmental, societal and socio-economic risk factor indicators. Ultimately any business climate, regardless of the country being studied, is underwritten by a political system, political climate, political culture and business culture of the system in which foreign business wishes to operate profitably. What is often labelled as unnecessary and irrelevant detail in risk analysis often results in a lack of using micro risk factors and their indicators and an underestimation of the importance of such micro risk indicators. Hopefully this study takes up the challenge of showing that political risk can be managed and political risk analysis can be made more precise - that it is possible to measure and manage political risk. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die titel van hierdie studie voorstel is een van die grootste uitdagings die ontwerp van 'n model vir die analise van politieke risiko as beleggingsrisiko - 'n model wat ter selfde tyd sensitief is vir en weerspieëlend van 'n land se algemeen omvattende besigheids- en beleggingsklimaat, en nie slegs suiwer politieke risiko in die nouste sin van die woord nie. 'n Literatuurstudie van meer onlangse navorsing, asook navorsing wat in die verlede gedoen is oor politieke risiko en die analise daarvan, dui daarop dat baie outeurs melding maak van die diversiteit en teenstrydighede in die bestaande definisies van politieke risiko. Die teenwoordigheid van versekering teen politieke risiko wys egter daarop dat die primêre politieke risiko's waarteen beleggers hulle belange verseker meesal nasionalisering en onteiening is, asook die beslaglegging op beleggings. Teen die agtergrond van hierdie studie se bevindinge, kan daar egter 'n saak uitgemaak word vir die verbreeding van die konseptualisering van politieke risiko om enige of alle van die mikro-politieke risiko faktorindikatore wat in hierdie studie identifiseer word in te sluit, om sodoende te verseker dat die negatiewe gevolge wat politieke gebeure moontlik mag inhou vir 'n buitelandse maatskappy se belange, sover moontlik beperk word. Buitelandse beleggers stel bates bloot aan risiko's ten einde voorafgestelde doelwitte te bereik en die assessering van hierdie risiko's, insluitende politieke risiko's, is 'n groot bydraende' faktor tot die suksesvolle bedryf van buitelandse beleggings. Geleenthede en risiko's is dikwels twee kante van diesIefde muntstuk en politieke risiko maak 'n groot deel uit van die uitdagende beleggingsomgewing waarin die bestuur van 'n multinasionale korporasie (MNK) daagliks moet funksioneer. 'n Maatskappy se buitelandse beleggingstrategie handel met die posisionering van die organisasie in die onvoorspelbare beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land. Hierdie studie poog ook om te verduidelik hoe die mate waarin 'n firma blootgestel word aan politieke risiko, met ander woorde die sensitiwiteit van 'n firma se voorgenome winsgewendheid en bedryf teenoor veranderinge in die beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land, bestuur en verminder kan word. Daar word gehoop dat politieke risiko analise en die bestuur daarvan 'n bydra kan lewer tot buitelandse besighede se bestuur van hierdie risiko's, wat andersins 'n vemietgende impak kan hê op die winsgewendheid van buitelandse bedrywighede. Dit is onverantwoordelik om aan 'n buitelandse belegger 'n risiko analise voor te lê wat nie politieke risiko faktore en die daarmee gepaardgaande indikatore insluit nie. Die studie argumenteer verder dat faktorindikatore wat die fisiese omgewing, sosiale asook sosio-ekonomiese faktore aanspreek ook in 'n risiko analise ingesluit moet word. Oplaas is enige besigheidsklimaat, nieteenstaande die land wat bestudeer word, onderskryf deur 'n politieke stelsel, politieke klimaat, politieke kultuur en besigheidskultuur van die stelsel waarin die buitelandse besigheid winsgewende resultate as doelwit het. Wat dikwels beskou word as onnodige en irrelevante detail in risiko analise lei dikwels tot 'n gebrek aan die insluiting van mikro-risiko faktore en hulle indikatore weens 'n onderskatting van die noodsaaklikheid daarvan om juis sulke mikro-risiko faktorindikatore in 'n risiko analise in te bou. Hierdie studie aanvaar hopelik die uitdaging om te wys dat politieke risiko tog bestuur kan word en dat politieke risiko analise tog meer eksak gemaak kan word - dat dit wel moontlik is om politieke risiko te meet en bestuur.

M. Tech. Business Administration / Entrepreneurship is very important in all countries because even in the developed world, small business enterprises create the majority of employment. Entrepreneurship is therefore critical to the development and well-being of society. Entrepreneurship presents massive opportunities for increasing employment creation and growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Entrepreneurship is thus a promoter of economic growth. As a nation, we're low on the rankings when measured by our entrepreneurial activity, and we need new ideas and entrepreneurial energy to create the growth and jobs needed to reverse the current levels of unemployment and poverty. The perception of risk is relevant to the decision to become an entrepreneur as risk taking is a part of entrepreneurial life. Starting a new business has long been considered a risky proposition. Just the potential for failure and loss discourages many would-be entrepreneurs from giving it a go. This study analyses the risk taking propensity of entrepreneurs. Through using two structured questionnaires, primary data were collected from a population sample of 30 female and 30 male businesses, randomly selected from among the small and medium scale entrepreneurs engaged in manufacturing, trading, retailing and services industries in Roodepoort. The listing was extracted from the Business Index.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Western Cape Province in South Africa is home to one of the most diverse plant communities in the world, and has one of the highest concentrations of plants species in any temperate ecosystem in the world. The dominant vegetation is both fire-prone and fire-dependant (Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). The Western Cape in particular is emerging as a province that is increasingly prone to disaster events, particularly the threat of veld fires. The consequences of large wildfire disaster events are often devastating and far reaching (Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). This study was conducted in an attempt to investigate the drivers of wildfire behaviour, severity and magnitude in the Limietberg Conservation Area in order to gain a greater insight and understanding of the complexity of wildfire risk. Recognising the disaster prone character of the Western Cape and the increasing probabilities of future wildfire events in the province, this study aimed to strengthen the understanding of the drivers of wildland fire behaviour (i.e. wildland fire risk) in the Limietberg Conservation Area by analysing a number of fires to identify a range of drivers and patterns; examining the factors driving both fire danger and fire behaviour, including climate, topography, slope and fuel; examining the factors driving fire frequency and regime; and finally, determining possible ecological damage caused by the last 10 – 20 years of wildfire events in the Limietberg Conservation Area as measured by post-fire seedling ratios. This was achieved through the use of statistical techniques including multiple regression (McDonald 2009), ordination in the form of principal component analysis and non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (Clarke & Warwick 1994), and fieldwork in the form of post-fire regeneration (Proteaceae parent:seedling ratio) monitoring techniques (Bond et al. 1984; Vlok & Yeaton 2000; De Klerk et al. 2007). The results indicated that the interactions between factors driving fire danger and fire behaviour were indeed complex, being influenced mainly by meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed) but also quite strongly influenced by physical environmental factors (slope, topography). The use of ordination techniques in this sort of complex analysis was seen as extremely effective and its use in further fire research was strongly recommended. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Wes-Kaap provinsie in Suid-Afrika is die tuiste van een van die mees diverse plant gemeenskappe in die wêreld, en het een van die hoogste konsentrasies van plantspesies in enige gematigde ekosisteem in die wêreld. Die dominante plantegroei is beide vuur geneig en vuurafhanklik (Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). Die Wes-Kaap in die besonder is opkomende as 'n provinsie wat toenemend geneig is tot ramp gebeure, veral die bedreiging van veldbrande. Die gevolge van groot veldbrand rampgebeure is dikwels verwoestend en verreikend (Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). Hierdie studie is uitgevoer in 'n poging om die oorsake van veldbrande, die gedrag, erns en omvang daarvan in die Limietberg Bewaringsgebied vir groter insig en begrip van die kompleksiteit van veldbrand risiko te ondersoek. Hierdie studie erken die rampgeneigdheid van die Wes-Kaap en die toenemende waarskynlikheid van toekomstige veldbrande in die provinsie. Dit het ten doel gehad om die oorsake van veldvuur gedrag (bv. brand risiko) in die Limietberg Bewaringsgebied deur die ontleding van 'n aantal brande se oorsake en patrone te identifiseer; die ondersoek van faktore wat beide brandgevaar en vuurgedrag, bepaal insluitend klimaat, topografie, helling en brandstof; die ondersoek van faktore wat vuur frekwensie en regime; en uiteindelik die bepaling van moontlike ekologiese skade veroorsaak deur die laaste 10 - 20 jaar van veldbrand gebeure in die Limietberg Bewaringsgebied, soos gemeet deur navuur saailing verhoudings. Die doel is bereik deur die gebruik van statistiese tegnieke waaronder meervoudige regressie (McDonald 2009), ordening in die vorm van hoofkomponent analise en multi-dimensionele skaling (Clarke & Warwick 1994), en veldwerk in die vorm van navuur herlewing (Proteaceae ouer:saailing verhouding) moniteringstegnieke (Bond et al. 1984; Vlok & Yeaton 2000; De Klerk et al. 2007). Die resultate dui daarop dat die interaksies tussen faktore wat brandgevaar en vuurgedrag inderdaad kompleks aandryf is en hoofsaaklik beïnvloed word deur meteorologiese veranderlikes (temperatuur, relatiewe humiditeit, windspoed), maar ook baie sterk beïnvloed word deur fisiese omgewingsfaktore (helling, topografie). Die gebruik van ordeningstegnieke vir hierdie komplekse tipe analise is bevind as uiters effektief en die gebruik daarvan in verdere vuur navorsing word sterk aanbeveel.