Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:06:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 4859.pdf: 3995047 bytes, checksum: d6fe8fefac57632109ba02702cb2a16a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06-11 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The digital image processing has been used to solve a significant number of problems in the agricultural sector, especially with the evolution of remote sensing systems. This work presents a computational model based on digital image processing and remote sensing to infer about the risk in the agricultural environment. To validate the method, a experimental study was conducted about the risk of fungal disease in banana plantations. Temporal series of meteorological and monitoring data of the disease, organized in classes for the definition of probability distribution models, based on polynomial functions were used to validate results as well as satellite images integrated by fusion techniques, geometric corrections and re-sampling with interpolators based on kriging techniques. Fusion methods by IHS (Intensity, Hue, and Saturation) and PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and the Gaussian models, exponential and cylindrical for the ordinary kriging were tested. The IHS fusion technique demonstrated to be more interesting in relation the PCA technique, with correlation coefficients between bands 2, 3 and 4 originals and hybrids, of 0.2318, 0.0304 and 0.1800, respectively. The method of ordinary kriging for re-sampling of the images showed better results when adjusted by the Gaussian model. The proposed method is feasible to the development of risk maps of disease occurrence, since confer spatial and temporal variability in relation to the model existing on the literature for the region. / O processamento de imagens digitais tem auxiliado na solução de um expressivo número de problemas do setor agrícola, sobretudo com a evolução dos sistemas de sensoriamento remoto. Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar um modelo computacional baseado em processamento digital de imagens e sensoriamento remoto para inferência de risco em ambiente agrícola. Para validação do método, foi realizado estudo experimental sobre o risco de ocorrência da doença fúngica em bananais. Foram utilizadas séries temporais de dados meteorológicos e de monitoramento da doença, organizados em classes para a definição de modelos de distribuição de probabilidades, baseados em funções polinomiais, bem como imagens de satélites, organizadas com técnicas de fusão, correções geométricas e re-amostragem, com interpoladores baseados em técnicas de krigagem. Foram testados os métodos de fusão por IHS (Intensity, Hue, Saturation) e PCA (Principal Component Analysis), bem como os modelos gaussiano, exponencial e cilíndrico para a krigagem ordinária. A técnica de fusão por IHS demonstrou-se mais interessante em relação à técnica por PCA, apresentando coeficientes de correlação entre as bandas 2, 3 e 4 originais e híbridas, de 0,2318, 0,0304 e 0,1800, respectivamente. O método de krigagem ordinária para reamostragem das imagens apresentou melhores resultados quando ajustado pelo modelo gaussiano. A metodologia proposta se apresentou viável e adequada para a elaboração de mapas de risco de ocorrência da doença, uma vez que conferece variabilidade espacial e temporal ao modelo já existente na literatura para aquela região.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T18:33:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Clarissa P Junqueira.pdf: 7187241 bytes, checksum: 1730832b5fc1e68fc1892d0aa3b9f026 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-08-20 / The aim of this work was studying the statistical model risk as its ability to predict the occurrence of financial insolvency in 32 farmers cooperatives on the State of Paraná during the period 2000 to 2004. So studied 12 financial indicators of the cooperatives. Standard indexes were calculated for the group and compared with the financial cooperative indexes of each. For the construction of Frequentista Risk Model were calculated for each financial function survival index, the rate of risk, the relative risk and the number of cooperatives solvents. / O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar o modelo estatístico de risco quanto a sua capacidade de antever a ocorrência de insolvência financeira em 32 das cooperativas agropecuárias do Estado do Paraná no período de 2000 a 2004. Para tanto foram estudados 12 indicadores financeiros das cooperativas. Foram calculados índices-padrão para o grupo e comparados estes com os índices financeiros de cada cooperativa. Para a construção do Modelo de Risco Frequentista foram calculados para cada índice financeiro a função sobrevivência, a taxa derisco, o risco relativo e o número de cooperativas solventes.

Recently, the financial world witnessed a series of major defaults by several institutions and investment banks. Therefore, it is not at all surprising that credit risk analysis have turned out to be one of the most important aspect among the finance community. As credit derivatives are long term instruments, it is affected by the changes in the market conditions. Thus, it is a appropriate to take into consideration the effects of the market economy. This thesis addresses some of the important issues in credit risk analysis in a regime switching market. The main contribution in this thesis are the followings: (1) We determine the price of default able bonds in a regime switching market for structural models with European type payoff. We use the method of quadratic hedging and minimal martingale measure to determine the defaultble bond prices. We also obtain hedging strategies and the corresponding residual risks in these models. The defaultable bond prices are obtained as solution to a system of PDEs (partial differential equations) with appropriate terminal and boundary conditions. We show the existence and uniqueness of the system of PDEs on an appropriate domain. (2) We carry out a similar analysis in a regime switching market for the reduced form models. We extend some of the existing models in the literature for correlated default timings. We price single-name and multi-name credit derivatives using our regime switching models. The prices are obtained as solution to a system of ODEs(ordinary differential equations) with appropriate terminal conditions. (3) The price of the credit derivatives in our regime switching models are obtained as solutions to a system of ODEs/PDEs subject to appropriate terminal and boundary conditions. We solve these ODEs/PDEs numerically and compare the relative behavior of the credit derivative prices with and without regime switching. We observe higher spread in our regime switching models. This resolves the low spread discrepancy that were prevalent in the classical structural models. We show further applications of our model by capturing important phenomena that arises frequently in the financial market. For instance, we model the business cycle, tight liquidity situations and the effects of firm restructuring. We indicate how our models may be extended to price various other credit derivatives.

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L'elemento che distingue un'operazione di cartolarizzazione consiste, secondo la definizione espressa nell'accordo di Basilea2, nell'identificazione di almeno due differenti posizioni di rischio (tranche), stratificate e subordinate, emesse a fronte di uno specifico portafoglio di attività. Nonostante il ricorso al tranching sia ampiamente diffuso e standardizzato le determinanti che giustificano il ricorso all'emissione multi-tranche sono ad oggi poco approfondite. Inoltre, i titoli emessi a fronte di operazioni di cartolarizzazione (CDO) possiedono profili di esposizione al rischio di credito differenziati, in termini di incidenza delle perdite attese ed inattese, ed in termini di correlazione con altri fattori di rischio: la valutazione del profilo di rischio è condizione necessaria per l'attribuzione di un giudizio di rating e per la definizione di un appropriato premio al rischio (pricing). Si rivela necessaria tanto la stima della distribuzione delle perdite del portafoglio (credit risk modelling) quanto l'analisi strutturale dei flussi di cassa generati e l'allocazione degli stessi alle tranche (cash flow modelling). Sulla base della letteratura di security design la tesi intende valutare l'efficienza del processo di intermediazione basato sulla cartolarizzazione multi-tranche rispetto all'intermediazione bancaria tradizionale e a forme di asset-backed security con unica tranche e focalizza l'analisi attraverso una verifica empirica delle teorie economiche a supporto del tranching, con particolare riferimento alla cartolarizzazione dei prestiti concessi ad imprese di piccola e media dimensione, oggetto di analisi specifica condotta nell'ambito di un'esperienza di stage presso il Fondo europeo degli investimenti. Quindi, grazie alla realizzazione di un modello computazionale sviluppato con un software di pianificazione finanziaria multidimensionale (Quantrix), la tesi presenta un approfondimento delle technicalities, mediante una modellizzazione dei flussi e della loro allocazione (Waterfall Payment Order), allo scopo di apprezzare il valore aggiunto di queste strutture di intermediazione. Aspetto, questo, non sviluppato nella letteratura accademica. L'analisi si rivolge alle operazioni realizzate nell'ambito dei due principali programmi di cartolarizzazione dei prestiti alle PMI attuati in Europa (Ftpyme e Promise). / Securitisation is a structured finance instrument which involves pooling of financial assets (such as loans and bonds) and creating multiple tranched liabilities, collateralized debt obligation (CDO), of a single issuer with different risk-return characteristics, which are sold as separate securities. According to the New Basel Capital Accord, tranching is the key feature that distinguishes securitisation transactions; although commonly applied, the factors that determine the extent and the nature of tranching remain largely unknown. Moreover, because tranching allows the risk characteristics of the collateral pool to be transformed, it contributes to transaction complexity in assessing the risk properties of such structured instruments: the risk profile that can be generated through tranched exposure, in terms both of expected/unexpected incidence losses and correlated default of pool assets, can lead to substantial differences among tranches, depending on the level of subordination below a certain tranche. Key to the reliability of structured finance pricing and ratings is the accuracy in assessing the credit risk in the underlying portfolio (credit risk modelling), as well as the accurate modelling of the distribution of cash flows to different classes of CDO (cash flow modelling). By analyzing the finance literature relating to security design and securitization this thesis provides an analysis of the efficiency of financial intermediation model based on securitisation and an empirical test of theories supporting the economic added value of tranching, with regard to SMEs loan securitisation, which topic was specifically investigated during a stage at the European Investment Fund. By realization of a computational model, performed using a multidimensional modelling software (Quantrix), the thesis closely examines securitisation transaction's technicalities, by modelling both portfolio cash flows and funds allocation (Waterfall Payment Order), in order to asses the ability of the structure to withstand various stressed scenarios. This analysis offers an analytical and micro-approach to securitisation transactions, which has not deeply investigated in academic literature yet. The model applies to SMEs loan securitisation transactions, concluded within specific securitisation European Programme (Ftpyme in Spain and Promise in Germany).

Nous y introduisons une nouvelle classe de distributions bivariées de type Marshall-Olkin, la distribution Erlang bivariée. La transformée de Laplace, les moments et les densités conditionnelles y sont obtenus. Les applications potentielles en assurance-vie et en finance sont prises en considération. Les estimateurs du maximum de vraisemblance des paramètres sont calculés par l'algorithme Espérance-Maximisation. Ensuite, notre projet de recherche est consacré à l'étude des processus de risque multivariés, qui peuvent être utiles dans l'étude des problèmes de la ruine des compagnies d'assurance avec des classes dépendantes. Nous appliquons les résultats de la théorie des processus de Markov déterministes par morceaux afin d'obtenir les martingales exponentielles, nécessaires pour établir des bornes supérieures calculables pour la probabilité de ruine, dont les expressions sont intraitables. / In this contribution, we introduce a new class of bivariate distributions of Marshall-Olkin type, called bivariate Erlang distributions. The Laplace transform, product moments and conditional densities are derived. Potential applications of bivariate Erlang distributions in life insurance and finance are considered. Further, our research project is devoted to the study of multivariate risk processes, which may be useful in analyzing ruin problems for insurance companies with a portfolio of dependent classes of business. We apply results from the theory of piecewise deterministic Markov processes in order to derive exponential martingales needed to establish computable upper bounds of the ruin probabilities, as their exact expressions are intractable.

Nous y introduisons une nouvelle classe de distributions bivariées de type Marshall-Olkin, la distribution Erlang bivariée. La transformée de Laplace, les moments et les densités conditionnelles y sont obtenus. Les applications potentielles en assurance-vie et en finance sont prises en considération. Les estimateurs du maximum de vraisemblance des paramètres sont calculés par l'algorithme Espérance-Maximisation. Ensuite, notre projet de recherche est consacré à l'étude des processus de risque multivariés, qui peuvent être utiles dans l'étude des problèmes de la ruine des compagnies d'assurance avec des classes dépendantes. Nous appliquons les résultats de la théorie des processus de Markov déterministes par morceaux afin d'obtenir les martingales exponentielles, nécessaires pour établir des bornes supérieures calculables pour la probabilité de ruine, dont les expressions sont intraitables. / In this contribution, we introduce a new class of bivariate distributions of Marshall-Olkin type, called bivariate Erlang distributions. The Laplace transform, product moments and conditional densities are derived. Potential applications of bivariate Erlang distributions in life insurance and finance are considered. Further, our research project is devoted to the study of multivariate risk processes, which may be useful in analyzing ruin problems for insurance companies with a portfolio of dependent classes of business. We apply results from the theory of piecewise deterministic Markov processes in order to derive exponential martingales needed to establish computable upper bounds of the ruin probabilities, as their exact expressions are intractable.

The aim of the work is to analyze the theoretical basis of determination of the market risk premium in conditions of the national market in the Czech Republic with CAPM and practical procedures of its determination using the market data provided by Bloomberg. The work addresses some open problems of practical determination of market risk premium as a choice between historical and implied risk premium, determination of credit spread as a representative of country risk and accurate determination of the equity and bond market volatility ratio. The thesis also contains research on the cost of equity and single-factor sensitivity analysis demonstrating the significant influence of a small change in one parameter entering the calculation of the discount rate on the resulting value.