Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2010. / Thesis Advisor(s): Morag, Nadav ; Strindberg, Anders. "March 2010." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 26, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Risk, Rational Deterrence Theory, Subjective Expected Utility, Prospect Utility Theory, Japan, USSR, Pearl Harbor, Cuban Missile Crisis, North Korea, Iran, Game Theory, Strategic Environment, Capabilities, Strategic Culture. Includes bibliographical references (p. 171-178). Also available in print.

Försörjningskedjor har blivit allt mer globala, vilket har medfört att risken ökat och allt fler oförutsedda händelser uppstår som kan påverka organisationen på ett negativt sätt. Denna studies syfte var att få en förståelse för hur företag A hanterar och identifierar risker inom försörjningskedjan utifrån ett inköpsperspektiv, vilket undersöktes med hjälp av kvalitativa metoder. Studien började med insamling av allmänna fakta för att skapa en bild över potentiella problem inom försörjningskedjan, vidare riktades den teoretiska referensramen in på teorier och modeller inom riskdefinition, riskstrategier och analysverktyg för riskbedömning. Sedan genomfördes en fallstudie av hur företag A upplever risker. Den empiriska datan blev insamlad genom semi-strukturerade intervjuer med individer på företagets inköpsavdelning, med fokus på hur de identifierar och hanterar risker. Därefter analyserades den insamlade datan från intervjuerna, utifrån den teoretiska referensramen. Resultatet visade att det finns en stor riskförståelse och aktivt arbete mot olika typer av risker, samt för att minimera störningar är den främsta åtgärden kommunikation med leverantörer. I studien framkom även att det inte finns någon enhetlig riskstrategi och riskhantering bland individerna på inköpsavdelningen, istället hanteras riskerna utifrån enskilda situationer. / Supply chains have become increasingly global, which has led to increased risk and more and more unforeseen events occurring that could adversely affect the organization. The purpose of this study was to gain an understanding of how Company A manages and identifies risks in the supply chain from a purchasing perspective, which was investigated using qualitative methods. The study began with the gathering of general facts to create a picture of potential problems in the supply chain, and the theoretical frame of reference was also focused on theories and models within risk definition, risk strategies and analysis tools for risk assessment. A case study was then conducted of how Company A perceived risks. The empirical data was collected through semi-structured interviews with individuals in the company's purchasing department, focusing on how they identify and manage risks. Subsequently, the data collected from the interviews were analyzed based on the theoretical frame of reference. The result showed that there is a great understanding of risk and active work against different types of risks, and to minimize disruptions, the main measure is communication with suppliers. The study also revealed that there is no uniform risk strategy and risk management among the individuals in the purchasing department, instead the risks are managed based on individual situations.

This thesis investigates roadmapping in the context of its application to strategic early-stage innovation planning. It is concerned with providing an understanding of how uncertainty and risk are manifested in roadmapping in this application, and with developing and testing a roadmapping process that supports appropriate treatment of uncertainty and risk. Roadmapping is an approach to early-stage innovation planning, which is strategic in nature. It is seeing increasing application in practice and receiving growing attention in management literature. There has, however, been a noticeable lack of attention to uncertainty and risk in roadmapping theory and practice (and generally in strategic planning and at innovation’s early-stages). This is despite the awareness that uncertainty and risk are fundamental to strategy and innovation (i.e. application domains of roadmapping), and that roadmapping is meant to deliver, as part of its benefits, the identification, resolution and communication of uncertainties and risks. There is very limited theoretical or practical direction on what this entails. It is this gap that the research reported in thesis addresses. The research is divided into two phases. The first phase explains the manifestations and mechanisms of uncertainty and risk in roadmapping. It also introduces ‘risk-aware roadmapping’, a concept of roadmapping that includes a conscious and explicit effort to address uncertainty and risk, and points out what the process would entail in terms of necessary steps and procedures. The research here is designed using mixed methods (a combination of experience surveys, archival analysis, and case studies). The second phase provides a practical risk-aware roadmapping process. This practical process is developed based on the results of the first phase, and is designed according to procedural action research. This thesis contributes to the fields of roadmapping, early-stage innovation and organisational sensemaking. It is found that factors related to the content, process and nature of roadmapping interact to influence the perception and treatment of uncertainty and risk. Characteristics of organisational sensemaking as theorised by Weick (1995) are explored in the light of the findings and challenged. Aspects of early-stage innovation including the generation and selection of innovation ideas are explored in the context of uncertainty and risk and important paradoxes and constraints at innovation’s early-stages.