Thesis (DSc (Biochemistry))--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / The fumonisin mycotoxins are known to be the causative principle for several animal diseases and are associated with the development of liver and oesophagus cancer and neural tube defects in humans. The thesis focuses mainly on the characterisation of the compounds from maize cultures of the fungus Fusarium verticillioides, isolated from maize, the toxicological effects in animals, mechanism involved in hepato- and nephrocarcinogenicity and discussing the major differences and contradictions in the literature together with their impact on setting relevant risk assessment parameters to safeguard human health. Controversies include the importance of non-genotoxicity vs genotoxicity in the development of cancer, the role of threshold effects in carcinogenesis and the establishment of realistic risk assessment parameters that will also be applicable in developing countries. Recent approaches suggest that thresholds should also apply for genotoxic carcinogens as interaction with the DNA is only one event in the multi-step process of cancer development and therefore could not be taken as the basis for applying a no-effect threshold for genotoxins. It would appear that a carcinogen such as fumonisin, whether it is labeled genotoxic or non-genotoxic per se, exhibits some degree of risk at any level due to additive or synergistic interactions with other xenobiotics and/or dietary constituents. The underlying mechanisms of fumonisin-induced carcinogenicity includes the disruption of sphingolipid, phospholipids and fatty acid metabolism, which plays a major role in the modulation of apoptotic and cell proliferative pathways related to cancer development. Interactive responses between arachidonic acid and ceramide affect downstream cell signal transduction pathways and depending on the cell type the disruption of these pathways could either stimulate or inhibit cell proliferation which eventually will determine the induction of apoptosis and hence affect cell survival. The modulating roles of dietary constituents such as vitamins, protein and the South African herbal teas are also highlighted as they affected the outcome of toxicological assays, thus determining thresholds of the adverse effects in specific target organs that will impact risk assessment parameters. Regulation of the fumonisins in food and the associated risk are debated from many perspectives. In developing countries there is a lack of quality control implying that maize highly contaminated with mycotoxins may directly enter the food chain of adults and children as control of mycotoxins is difficult or in some cases totally absent. The interaction of politics, economy and technology will eventually determine the impact on health as the regulation of fumonisin in food differs between countries. Knowledge about the biological effects of the fumonisins is currently playing an important role in the development of simple and inexpensive methods to reduce the levels of the fumonisin in maize by targeting specific populations at risk.

The United Kingdom (UK) construction industry is one of the worst industries in the UK in terms of health and safety (H&S) performance. Numerous injuries, deaths, dangerous occurrences and work related illnesses are reported annually in the industry, and these are associated with huge economic and social costs which make the need for H&S improvement inevitable. The pursuit of improvement has triggered studies into construction accident causation which have emphasised the need to pay attention to underlying accident causal factors which emanate from the pre-construction stage in order to have sustained improvement in H&S. Construction project features (CPFs), such as nature of project, method of construction, site restriction, procurement method, project duration, level of construction, design complexity, and subcontracting, which are organisational, physical, and operational characteristics of projects emanating from pre-construction decisions fall in this category of underlying causal factors. However, despite the significance of underlying causal factors to H&S, not much attention by way of research has been given to CPFs. As a result, insight into how CPFs influence accident occurrence, the degree of their inherent potential to influence accident occurrence (i.e. their potential to cause accident) and their associated degree of H&S risk (i.e. the likelihood of accident occurrence due to CPFs) remain elusive in the extant construction H&S literature. This research was thus undertaken to empirically investigate the mechanism by which CPFs influence accident occurrence and assess their degree of potential to influence accident occurrence and their associated H&S risk. Adopting a mixed method approach, the accident causal influence of CPFs was investigated. Following a conceptualisation of how CPFs influence accident occurrence based on systems models of accident causation, a qualitative inquiry involving semi-structured interviews with experienced construction professionals was undertaken to provide empirical verification of the conceptualised view. Subsequent to the qualitative inquiry, a questionnaire survey was undertaken to elicit relevant data from experienced professionals in construction management roles to enable the assessment of the degree of potential of CPFs to influence accident occurrence and their associated H&S risk. From the analysis of data, it was found that CPFs, emanating from pre-construction decisions, influence accident occurrence by their inherent introduction of certain associated H&S issues (which can be termed as proximal accident factors) into the construction phase of projects to give rise to accidents. There are also causal interactions between CPFs and the proximal factors which can reduce or increase the presence of proximal factors. CPFs have varying degrees of potential to influence accident occurrence which can generally be high or moderate and is influenced by: the extent to which their proximal factor(s) is common (in other words prevalent) within them; and the degree of potential of the proximal factor(s) to influence accident occurrence. Where CPFs apply on a project, they are generally associated with medium risk or high risk. Whereas with medium-risk CPFs some risk control measures would suffice in mitigating risk, with high-risk CPFs substantial measures are required. As a consolidation of the research findings, a toolkit, called CRiMT, has been developed. CRiMT provides H&S risk information regarding CPFs and it has the potential of assisting pre-construction project participants in managing the accident causal influence of CPFs from the early stage of project procurement. In view of the findings, the accident causal influence of CPFs should thus not be ignored or underestimated in construction project delivery. Pre-construction project participants, especially those whose decisions determine CPFs, ought to take into consideration the H&S effects of CPFs when making decisions which determine CPFs. Also, pre-construction project participants ought to plan and implement commensurate risk control measures in the early stage of projects to eliminate or mitigate the H&S risk posed by CPFs.

published_or_final_version / Community Medicine / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

published_or_final_version / Applied Geosciences / Master / Master of Science

published_or_final_version / Applied Geosciences / Master / Master of Science

Syfte: Syftet är att beskriva och analysera riskhantering av projektrisker och finansiella risker i infrastrukturprojektet Varbergstunneln under planeringsfasen där två aktörer har studerats, Trafikverket och Varbergs kommunala verksamhet, och deras perspektiv på riskhantering och hur dessa aktörers perspektiv skiljer sig åt för att få förståelse för hur olika typer av risker och aktörer riskhanterar utifrån deras perspektiv i ett infrastrukturprojekt. Bakgrund och problem: Trafikverkets uppgift är att se till att tågen kommer i tid, transporter sker så säkert som möjligt och med minsta möjliga miljöpåverkan. Tillsammans med andra aktörer ska de se till att den bästa möjliga samhällsnyttan skapas för pengarna. Den 21 mars 2013 kom regeringens tillåtlighetsbeslut för delprojektet genom Varberg för att bygga ut järnvägen från enkelspårig till dubbelspårig. Detta är en av de största utmaningarna i Varbergs kommun där den kommunala och den statliga planeringen måste gå hand i hand. Det finns stora risker kopplat till infrastrukturprojekt men det finns också stor möjlighet till samhällsekonomisk lönsamhet. Att identifiera risker kräver ett generellt tillvägagångsätt eftersom att individer inte innehar all den informationen som krävs för att veta vart alla diverse risker befinner sig i verksamheten. Problemet med riskvärdering är att kunskapen om vilka som påverkar vid tunnelprojekt är knappa. Verksamheter behöver hantera risker och verksamheter som inte gör det är mer sårbara om de ignorerar risk, betraktar risk som deras fiende eller endast planerar för en enda framtid. Forskningsfråga: Hur utförs riskhantering av projektrisker och finansiella risker i infrastrukturprojektet Varbergstunneln under planeringsfasen? Metod: Den här uppsatsen är en kvalitativ studie där vi som författare har använt en induktiv ansats. Empirin har samlats in från tre olika intervjuer kopplat till Varbergstunneln.  Resultat: Den största skillnaden mellan aktörerna är omfattningen av riskhanteringen och hur de metodiskt arbetar. Trafikverket genomför ett mycket större riskhanteringsarbete än Varbergs kommunala verksamhet. Riskidentifieringen är mer likartat mellan aktörerna, skillnaden är hur de metodiskt arbetar. Riskvärderingen är kvalitativ hos Trafikverket och kvantitativt hos Varbergs kommunala verksamhet. Hantering av risk genomförs inte på något metodiskt sätt hos Varbergs kommunala verksamhet, det enda som hanteras är ränterisker medan Trafikverket hanterar alla risker och genomför detta på ett metodiskt sätt. Slutsats: Riskhanteringen utförs på olika sätt beroende på vilket perspektiv aktören har och vilken typ av risk som riskhanteras. Riskhanteringen kan vara antingen metodisk eller icke-metodisk. Vår uppfattning är att detta beror på aktörens ansvar och hur komplicerat riskhanteringen är för aktören. Vilket perspektiv aktören har anser vi påverka om aktören är långsiktig eller kortsiktig. Trafikverket ska endast bli klar med projekteringen av tunneln medan Varbergs kommunala verksamhet ska leva med den i generationer framöver. / Purpose: The purpose is to describe and analyze the risk management of project risks and financial risks in the infrastructure project Varberg tunnel during the planning phase, in which two players have been studied, the Swedish Transport Administration and the Varberg municipal operations, and their perspective on risk management and how these actors' perspectives differ in order to get an understanding of how different types of risks and stakeholder risk manage from their perspective in an infrastructure project. Background and problem: The Swedish Transport Administration task is to ensure that trains arrive on time, transport is done as safely as possible and with the least possible environmental impact. Together with other stakeholders they will ensure that the best possible social utility is created for the money. On 21 March 2013, the government's admissibility decision of subprojects through Varberg to extend the railway from single track to double track. This is one of the biggest challenges in Varberg municipality, where the municipal and state planning must go hand in hand. There are considerable risks associated with infrastructure projects but there are also great opportunities for socio-economic profitability. To identify risks requires a general approach because the individuals do not possess all the information necessary to know where all the various risks are within the activity. The problem with risk assessment is that the knowledge of the risks affecting the tunnel project are scarce and therefore entails difficulty in valuing them. Businesses need to manage risks, and businesses that ignore the risk, consider the risk as their enemy or plan for just one future are more vulnerable. Research issue: How is risk management of project risks and financial risks in the infrastructure project Varberg tunnel during the planning phase? Methodology: This thesis is a qualitative study that uses an inductive approach. The empirical data is collected from three different interviews linked to the Varberg tunnel. Result: The main difference between the stakeholders is the scope of risk management. The Swedish Transport Administration is implementing a much larger risk management than the municipality of Varberg. Risk identification is more similar between the stakeholders, the difference is how they methodically work. Risk assessment is qualitative at the Swedish Transport Administration and quantitative at Varberg municipality. Management of risk is carried out not in any methodical way at Varberg municipality, the only manage interest rate risks while the Transport Administration manages all risks and implement this in a methodical way. Conclusions: Risk management is carried out in different ways depending on the perspective of the stakeholder and the type of risk that is risk managed. Risk management can be either methodological or non-methodical. Our view is that this is due to the stakeholder’s responsibility and the complexity of risk management for the stakeholder. Which perspective stakeholders have, we believe, affect if the stakeholder have a long term or short term perspective. The Swedish Transport Administration will only be done with projecting of the tunnel while the municipality of Varberg has to live with it in generations to come.

<p>During 40 years of industrial production, from the end of the 1890’s until the end of 1930’s, coal and wood distillation products were manufactured in AB Carbo’s tar factory along the River Gimån in Grötingen, in the county of Jämtland, Sweden. In accordance with the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency’s Methods for Inventories of contaminated sites, MIFO, the site in Grötingen has been identified as a potentially contaminated site. In order to determine whether toxic substances pose a threat to human health and ecological systems in the area, there was a need to investigate the presence of contaminants, their levels and potential for migration. Sensitivity and protection value regarding exposure of man and the environment at the site is high, since people live next to the site and River Gimån is a part of the Natura 2000 network.</p><p>The initial phase of the MIFO method includes a preliminary survey. Information regarding AB Carbo’s activities and production has been obtained by studying map and archive material, as well as by interviews and site inspections. Potential point sources have been identified around the factory forge, storage cellar, distillation building and the wooden channel for the discharge of tar and other condensates into the River Gimån.</p><p>Guided by the information gathered in MIFO phase 1, a preliminary site investigation was carried out at the site. It included sampling of soil, sediment, groundwater and surface water together with sample analysis of heavy metals and organic pollutants. The result of the analysis shows that very high levels of the contaminants PAH, aromatics and lead are found in both soil and groundwater. The sediment contamination level is high while that of surface water is very low. The distribution of contamination levels among the samples indicates a likely point source close to the distillation building due to very high contamination levels in soil and groundwater close to that point. The point source may represent a larger spillage or dumped waste products.</p><p>Two of the contaminants present at the site, phenantrene and phenol, were studied by using the model CHEMFLO-2000. The analysis focussed on mobility in unsaturated soils under conditions that prevail at the site in Grötingen. The adsorption of phenantrene is significantly higher in comparison to that of phenol.</p><p>Comprehensive assessment and risk classification results in risk class 2 for the site in Grötingen, which implies a need for further investigations and measurements. The risk of human exposure could be reduced by removing contaminated soil around the factory forge. Additional studies should focus on finding the location of the point source around the distillation building as well as contaminant migration from the wooden channel and the geographical spreading of heavy metal contamination.</p> / <p>Från slutet av 1890-talet och fram till slutet av 1930-talet tillverkades träkol och trädestillationsprodukter vid AB Carbos kolugnsanläggning i Grötingen, Jämtlands län. En undersökning enligt MIFO-modellen motsvarande fas 1 och fas 2 har genomförts på området med syfte att fastställa vilka föroreningar som förekommer på området, föroreningsnivå, spridningsförutsättningar och sammanfattningsvis bedöma föroreningssituationen på området utifrån de miljö- samt hälsorisker som området ger eller kan ge upphov till. Objektsområdet har hög känslighet och högt skyddsvärde då människor bor permanent alldeles intill objektsområdet samt att det intilliggande vattendraget Gimån ingår i Natura 2000-nätverket.</p><p>Genom de orienterande studier som genomfördes i MIFO fas 1 har kart- och arkivstudier samt intervjuer resulterat i information om kolugnsanläggningens verksamhet samt tillverkade produkter. På fabriksområdet identifierades potentiella punktkällor vid fabrikens smedja, källare, reningsverk samt vid den träränna varigenom spilltjära släpptes ut till Gimån.</p><p>Utifrån den information som erhölls i den orienterande fasen genomfördes en riktad provtagning enligt MIFO fas 2 i såväl mark och sediment som grund- och ytvatten. Bedömning av uppmätta föroreningshalter baseras på riktvärden och skattas från mindre allvarliga till mycket allvarliga. Analysresultaten påvisar allvarliga till mycket allvarliga halter av PAH, aromater och bly i jorden och grundvattnet. Andra föroreningar som påvisas i högre halter på området är alifater och koppar. Föroreningsnivån med avseende på PAH i sedimenten bedöms som allvarlig medan analysresultaten från ytvattenprovtagningen påvisar mycket låga föroreningsnivåer. Provtagningsresultaten påvisar ett mycket förorenat grundvattenflöde från reningsverket, där en punktkälla i form av större spill eller nedgrävda förvaringskärl kan vara lokaliserad. Eventuell spridning av föroreningar från trärännan går inte att fastställa då föroreningsspridning även kan ske från det intilliggande området där kolugnar och kondenseringshus har varit lokaliserade.</p><p>Föroreningarna fenantren och fenol studerades genom modellering i CHEMFLO-2000 med avseende på deras rörlighet i omättad jord under de geohydrologiska förhållanden som råder på objektsområdet i Grötingen. Resultatet visar att fenantren adsorberas i marken i betydligt större grad än fenol. Koncentrationen fenantren i porvattnet minskar nästan lika mycket som den totala koncentrationen fenantren i marken, vilket tyder på att fenantren binds starkt genom adsorbtion i marken.</p><p>Den samlade riskbedömningen av objektet resulterar i att objektet bedöms tillhöra riskklass 2, vilket innebär att objektet ger upphov till en stor risk för människa och miljön. Fortsatta undersökningar på området i Grötingen bör fokusera på att hitta den punktkälla vid reningsverket som bedöms vara orsaken till de höga föroreningsnivåer som uppmättes i grundvattenrör V1. Den geografiska utbredningen av de ytliga föroreningarna som påträffades där smedjan har stått bör också utredas vidare och eventuellt avlägsna förorenad jord eller vidta åtgärder för att minska exponeringen. Vidare undersökningar bör även klarlägga spridningen från trärännan samt orsakerna till de höga föroreningsnivåer av bly som uppmättes på området.</p>

This research employs a deterministic seismic risk assessment methodology to assess the potential damage and loss at meshblock level in the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant primarily due to building damage caused by earthquake ground shaking. Expected losses in terms of dollar value and casualties are calculated for two earthquake scenarios. Findings are based on: (1) data describing the earthquake ground shaking and microzonation effects; (2) an inventory of buildings by value, floor area, replacement value, occupancy and age; (3) damage ratios defining the performance of buildings as a function of earthquake intensity; (4) daytime and night-time population distribution data and (5) casualty functions defining casualty risk as a function of building damage. A GIS serves as a platform for collecting, storing and analyzing the original and the derived data. It also allows for easy display of input and output data, providing a critical functionality for communication of outcomes. The results of this study suggest that economic losses due to building damage in the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant will possibly be in the order of $5.6 and $35.3 million in a magnitude 8.0 Alpine fault earthquake and a magnitude 7.0 Ashley fault earthquake respectively. Damage to non-residential buildings constitutes the vast majority of the economic loss. Casualty numbers are expected to be between 0 and 10.

The accident rate at an intersection is one attribute used to evaluate the hazard associated with the intersection. Two techniques traditionally used to make such evaluations are the rate-quality technique and a technique based on the confidence interval of classical statistics. Both of these techniques label intersections as hazardous if their accident rate is greater than some critical accident rate determined by the technique. An alternative technique is one based on a Bayesian analysis of available accident number and traffic volume data. In contrast to the two classic techniques, the Bayesian technique identifies an intersection as hazardous based on a probabilistic assessment of accident rates. The goal of this thesis is to test and compare the ability of the three techniques to accurately identify traffic intersections known to be hazardous. Test data is generated from an empirical distribution of accident rates. The techniques are then applied to the generated data and compared based on the simulation results.