Tang Kwong-leung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-84). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / 摘要 --- p.iii / Acknowledgment --- p.iv / Table of Contents --- p.v / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction / Chapter 1.1 --- Modern View of Arbitrage --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Arbitrage Opportunity in China Stock Market --- p.4 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- The China Stock Market / Chapter 2.1 --- Stock Trading --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Segmentation of the Market --- p.8 / Chapter 2.3 --- Listed Companies --- p.10 / Chapter 2.4 --- Literature Review --- p.11 / Chapter 2.5 --- Liberalization of B Shares --- p.14 / Chapter 2.6 --- Operational Difference between A-Share and B-Share Trading --- p.16 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- The Data / Chapter 3.1 --- A Shares versus B Shares --- p.18 / Chapter 3.2 --- Definition of Discount --- p.19 / Chapter 3.3 --- A Shares versus H Shares --- p.23 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Test for The Existence of Structural Break / Chapter 4.1 --- The Methodology --- p.26 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Empirical Findings --- p.28 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Explanations for Limited Arbitrage / Chapter 5.1 --- Absence of Free Convertibility of Renminbi --- p.29 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- China's Foreign Exchange Control and Regulation --- p.30 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Current Account versus Capital Account --- p.31 / Chapter 5.1.3 --- Impact of Foreign Exchange Control on Price Discount --- p.32 / Chapter 5.1.4 --- Free Convertibility of Foreign Exchange in Hong Kong --- p.33 / Chapter 5.1.4.1 --- The Data --- p.34 / Chapter 5.1.4.2 --- Definition of Discount --- p.34 / Chapter 5.1.4.3 --- Basis Idea --- p.35 / Chapter 5.1.4.4 --- The Empirical Findings --- p.37 / Chapter 5.2 --- Investment Returns of A Shares and B Shares --- p.37 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- The Data --- p.38 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Foreign Exchange Factor --- p.42 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Basic Idea --- p.43 / Chapter 5.2.4 --- Different Sets of Returns --- p.44 / Chapter 5.2.5 --- The Empirical Findings --- p.47 / Chapter 5.2.6 --- Irrelevant Difference in Liquidity between A Shares and B Shares --- p.51 / Chapter Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.52 / Tables / Table 1 Share Structure of PRC Issuers --- p.54 / Table 2 Descriptive Statistics of Different Types of PRC Issuers --- p.55 / Table 3 Trading Summary of PRC Issuers --- p.56 / Table 4 Lists of Companies

This dissertation analyzes the efficiency of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the relationship of stock return patterns on the BSE with those of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The data includes daily closing values of the BSE and S&P 500 Indexes for the period 1979-1990 and bi-weekly closing prices on 27 of the most active stocks on the BSE for the period 1980-1990.

This study examines the reactions of market makers and investors to large dividend increases to identify the motives for dividend increases. Uniquely, this study simultaneously tests the signaling and agency abatement motivations as explanations of the impact of dividend increases on stock prices and bid-ask spreads. The agency abatement hypothesis argues that increased dividends constrict management's future behavior, abating the agency problem with shareholders. The signaling hypothesis asserts that dividend increases signal that managers expect higher or more stable cash flows in the future. Mean stock price responses to dividend increase announcements during 1995 are examined over both short ( _1, 0) and long ( _1, 504) windows. Changes in bid-ask spreads are examined over a short ( _1, 0) window and an intermediate (81 day) period. This study partitions dividend increases into a sample motivated by agency abatement and a sample motivated by cash flow signaling. Further, this study examines the agency abatement and cash flow signaling explanations of relative bid-ask spread responses to announcements of dividend increases. Estimated generalized least squares models of market reactions to sampled events support the agency abatement hypothesis over the cash flow signaling hypothesis as a motive for large dividend increases as measured by Tobin's Q and changes in the distribution of cash flows.

Thesis (M.Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo. 2014 / A number of previous research studies have investigated volatility and financial risks in the ermeging markets. This dissertation investigates stock returns volatility and financial risks in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The investigation is con- ducted in modelling volatility using Autoregressive Moving Average-Generalised Au- toregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARMA-GARCH)-type models. Daily data of the log returns at the JSE over the period 08 January, 2002 to 30 December, 2011 is used. The results suggest that daily returns can be characterised by an ARMA (1, 0) process. Empirical results show that ARMA (1, 0)-GARCH (1, 1) model achieves the most accurate volatility forecast. Modelling tail behaviour of rare and extreme events is an important issue in the risk management of a financial portfolio. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is applied to quantify upper extreme returns. Generalised Ex- treme Value (GEV) distribution is used to model the behaviour of extreme returns. Empirical results show that the Weibull distribution can be used to model stock re- turns on the JSE. In using the Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD), the modelling framework used accommodates ARMA and GARCH models. The GPD is applied to ARMA-GARCH filtered returns series and the model is referred to as the ARMA- GARCH-GPD model. The threshold value is estimated using Pareto quantile plot while peak-over-threshold approach is used to model the upper extreme returns. In general, the ARMA-GARCH-GPD model produces more accurate estimates of ex- treme returns than the ARMA-GARCH model. The out of sample forecast indicates that the ARMA (1, 3)-GARCH (1, 1) model provides the most accurate results.

This thesis involved an empirical investigation of the predictability of Australian industrial stock returns using a dynamic state-space framework. The systematic risks of industrial portfolios were examined in a stochastic market- model. The systematic risks of industry portfolios are found to be stochastic processes. Most of the industry groups have time-varying systematic risks that are mean-reverting to their stable or moving long-term mean. However, the investment and financial services, alcohol and tobacco, gold, insurance and media industry groups have rather random systematic risks. The time-varying market model provides a better explanation of the portfolio returns than the single-index model since it captures the stochastic properties of market risk. Further, a Bayesian dynamic-forecasting model was employed to examine the explanatory power of a set of economic and financial variables. The unanticipated components of the term-structure variable, the interest-rate variable and the aggregate-dividend-yield variable were shown to be significant in explaining the industry portfolio excess returns. The comparison between multivariate analysis and univariate analysis strongly indicates that the correlations within industries are critical in the investigation of the predictability of returns. In the out-of-sample analysis, a maximally predicted portfolio (MPP) was constructed based on the updated economic and financial information; however, the predictability of the MPP did not exceed that of a naive forecast. / Furthermore, the market timing ability associated with the predictability of the MPP was insignificant. The industry-group-rotation strategy is able to enhance the industry portfolio performance, but the predictability only contributes a small proportion of the profits. The results indicate that the industry returns contain predictive components; however, investors are less likely to exploit the existing predictability to gain excess profit. The level of predictability discovered here does not contradict market-efficiency theory.

Two important findings in the IPO literature, IPO's underpricing and poor long run stock returns, are investigated by using the sample of IPOs completed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from 1994 to 1999. The evidence suggests that Thai IPOs are underpriced and have poor long run stock returns. Rock 's (1986) model is employed to explain the underpricing of Thai IPOs. Rock's model is supported by the evidence of Thai IPOs. Past market conditions and the stock liquidity of the IPOs' industries are the main factors which affect investor demand for IPO shares. IPOs which go public in the hot market conditions (periods with high past market return) and IPOs which come from liquid industries (industries which have high stock turnover) attract more investor demand. These two factors are also positively correlated with IPO first day return. This suggests that investors have higher demand for IPOs which go public in the hot market conditions and IPOs which come from liquid industries because these IPOs are underpriced, and the underpricing of these IPOs is corrected during the first trading day. IPOs with low investor demand underperform their benchmarks in the long run. On the contrary, the long run returns of IPOs with high investor demand are not significantly different from their benchmarks. One possible explanation for the underperformance of IPOs with low investor demand is that these IPOs may be illiquid. The lack of demand during the first trading day may cause their first closing price to be different from their intrinsic value. This difference is gradually adjusted in the long run leading to the underperformance of these IPOs. This hypothesis is supported by the evidence. The sample of rights offerings announced in the SET between 1994 and 1999 also supports the role of liquidity in explaining the poor long run performance of issuers. The change in operating performance of IPOs from the IPO-year to the post-IPO years also has some power in explaining the long run underperformance of IPOs. IPOs which perform more badly after going public have poor long run returns.

Firms that announce open-market share repurchase programs are not obligated to follow through in the actual acquisition of shares. In fact, we find that the majority of firms fail to acquire the target number of shares specified at announcement and many firms fail to repurchase any shares at all. Therefore, the announcement of a share repurchase program has a degree of uncertainty regarding the announcing firms credibility. This study examines the possibility that market participants evaluate the credibility of a firms share repurchase announcement based on the firms previous share repurchase history. We examine 1,507 share repurchase programs for firms listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) from 1995 to 2005 and find that firms that have completed a higher proportion of previous share repurchase programs experience larger abnormal returns on the announcement of subsequent repurchase programs. Therefore, we conclude that the market reacts more favorably to the share repurchase announcements of credible firms compared to firms that lack credibility.

Corporate cash holdings is a topic constantly under review, companies hoarding cash are criticized by shareholders who rather have companies using their cash for new investments or dividend payouts. Recent academic research has discovered that levels of cash holding are high in times when risk is deemed to be high and found that levels of corporate cash holdings are substantially higher than they used to, making more coverage and a better understanding of the phenomenon crucial. This thesis is investigating an aspect of the interconnection between corporate cash holdings and shareholders by examining if there is a relationship between the level of corporate cash holdings and the risk of the company stock. This research is conducted on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during the four year period of 2009-2012 and investigates for a relationship not only on the entire stock exchange but also for each size and sector individually. In order to investigate this relationship a cash to assets ratio has been employed to represent the level of corporate cash holdings and the measures of stock beta and volatility are used to represent the risk of the stock. The cash holding ratio is tested for a relationship with both beta and volatility separately using the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. This thesis have adopted a quantitative research and implemented an archival research strategy by using official records and numbers. Through these statistical tests this thesis establishes significant relationships between both the cash holding ratio and stock beta and stock volatility separately for the entire stock exchange and some differences arises between different sizes and sectors. For cash holding and stock beta a negative correlation relationship has been discovered for the entire sample, the medium cap size and the health care and industrial sectors. For cash holdings and stock volatility positive correlation findings have been made for the entire sample as well as the small cap size and the sectors of basic materials, health care and technology. This finding implicates that cash holdings to some extent relates stock risk and several potential explanations to this relationship are given and connected to well-established financial theories.

The stock market returns are the readily available tool for the investor to make investment decision and stock market return are affected by many accounting variables. Dividend policy measures and stock return relationship has been examined from decades but result is still a dilemma. This study is a step forward to solve this dilemma by considering Karachi stock exchange, Pakistan and Nordic stock markets and conducting a comparative study to also provide a knowledge base to readers. Dividend yield ratio, dividend payout ratio and other accounting variables are examined to find their effect on stock return. Pooled least square regression has been used on the data ranging from 2005-2008 and findings are different in different markets. Dividend policy measures (dividend yield ratio and dividend payout ratio) have significant effect on the stock return and in most countries there is significant negative relationship.

Firms that announce open-market share repurchase programs are not obligated to follow through in the actual acquisition of shares. In fact, we find that the majority of firms fail to acquire the target number of shares specified at announcement and many firms fail to repurchase any shares at all. Therefore, the announcement of a share repurchase program has a degree of uncertainty regarding the announcing firms credibility. This study examines the possibility that market participants evaluate the credibility of a firms share repurchase announcement based on the firms previous share repurchase history. We examine 1,507 share repurchase programs for firms listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) from 1995 to 2005 and find that firms that have completed a higher proportion of previous share repurchase programs experience larger abnormal returns on the announcement of subsequent repurchase programs. Therefore, we conclude that the market reacts more favorably to the share repurchase announcements of credible firms compared to firms that lack credibility.