Les moyennes et hautes latitudes de l'hémisphère nord sont caractérisées par une forte variabilité climatique en hiver, incluant l'occurrence d'évènements extrêmes tels que les vagues de froid ou les tempêtes, et présentent une faible prévisibilité aux échéances mensuelle à saisonnière dans les systèmes opérationnels. Un nombre croissant d'études montre qu'au-delà du couplage océan-atmosphère, le couplage troposphère-stratosphère contribue également à la variabilité climatique à ces échelles de temps. Cette thèse vise à mieux comprendre l'influence de la stratosphère sur la variabilité climatique hivernale à nos latitudes, et à quantifier sa contribution potentielle à la prévisibilité climatique saisonnière en comparaison de la contribution océanique. Dans un premier temps, un état des lieux des connaissances sur le couplage troposphère-stratosphère est dressé et la variabilité inter-annuelle du vortex stratosphérique polaire est revisitée par le biais d'analyses composites sur la base des réanalyses atmosphériques du CEPMMT. Ensuite, les principaux outils de cette thèse sont présentés et validés, à savoir le modèle ARPEGE-Climat et la technique de « nudging » permettant de relaxer (guider) le modèle vers les réanalyses. Comme beaucoup de modèles, les versions 4 et 5 d'ARPEGE-Climat en configuration T63L31 simulent un vortex stratosphérique polaire nettement décalé vers le sud, ce qui peut avoir des conséquences négatives sur la variabilité simulée via la modification des interactions ondes-écoulement moyen. Si la faible résolution verticale dans la stratosphère est souvent mise en avant pour expliquer le manque de prévisibilité dans les modèles, nos travaux sur la version 5 d'ARPEGE-Climat montrent que l'augmentation de la résolution verticale et l'élévation du toit du modèle à 0.1 hPa ne suffisent pas pour obtenir un climat plus réaliste, que ce soit en termes d'état moyen, de variabilité ou de prévisibilité à l'échelle saisonnière. C'est pourquoi, tout au long de cette thèse, la technique de la relaxation de la stratosphère vers les réanalyses issues du CEPMMT a été exploitée afin de montrer, de manière idéalisée, sa forte influence sur la variabilité climatique hivernale aux extratropiques de l'hémisphère nord, par rapport au seul forçage par les températures de surface de la mer observées. L'étude des hivers 1976-1977 et 2009-2010 via la réalisation de simulations d'ensemble avec et sans nudging a permis de confirmer la contribution de la stratosphère à la phase négative de la NAO et aux fortes anomalies négatives de température observées sur l'Europe du nord. La généralisation des ensembles à la période 1958-2007 (avec initialisation au 1er Novembre) confirme l'impact positif du nudging extratropical mais montre un effet très limité du nudging équatorial qu'il conviendrait d'évaluer de manière plus précise en augmentant la taille des ensembles. Ainsi, si elle confirme l'importance de la stratosphère pour la prévision saisonnière hivernale à nos latitudes, cette thèse ouvre de nombreuses perspectives concernant les mécanismes qui sous-tendent le couplage troposphère-stratosphère et l'intérêt d'une prévision statistico-dynamique consistant à relaxer le modèle ARPEGE-Climat vers une stratosphère prévue de manière statistique. / In the Northern Extratropics, winter climate shows a large inter-annual variability compared to other regions and seasons, with the occurrence of extreme weather events such as cold spells, heavy snowfall and wind storms. Unfortunately, current dynamical seasonal forecasting systems still show low predictability in the northern mid-latitudes. Besides ocean-atmosphere coupling, there is growing observational and numerical evidence that troposphere-stratosphere coupling also contributes to climate variability on a wide range of scales. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate this additional forcing by focusing on the stratospheric polar vortex influence on the wintertime climate variability in the northern mid-latitudes at inter-annual and intra-seasonal timescales. We first make a synthesis of the knowledge about troposphere-stratosphere coupling. The inter-annual variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is assessed using composite analysis of atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis. Then, the main tools used during this thesis are described, namely the ARPEGE-Climat model and the nudging of the stratosphere towards the ECMWF reanalysis. Like many other models, ARPEGE-Climat has a polar jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to reanalysis data, regardless his version, which could have negative consequences on the wintertime variability. Although the poorly resolved stratosphere is often suggested to explain the lack of previsibility in the models, our results show that, in the ARPEGE-Climat V5 model, the improved vertical resolution is not sufficient to simulate a more realistic climate variability and predictability. For these reasons, throughout this thesis, the stratospheric relaxation towards the reanalysis data from the ECMWF is used in order to compare his relative contribution to the tropospheric extra-tropical climate variability, compared to the sea surface temperature forcing. Case studies have been carried out for the 1976-1977 and 2009-2010 winters though ensemble simulations with free or nudged stratosphere. Results confirm the relative contribution of the stratosphere to the negative phase of the NAO and the temperature anomalies over the northern Europe. Similar initialized ensemble simulations over the 1958-2007 period confirm the positive impact of the extra-tropical nudging, but show a limited influence of the equatorial nudging, that needs to be analyzed more precisely with a larger ensemble. In conclusion, this thesis shows the importance of a realistic stratosphere in the extra-tropical seasonal forecast in winter, but a lot of questions remains opened, like mechanisms related to the troposphere-stratosphere coupling, and the interest of a statistico-dynamical forecast including a relaxation towards a statistical stratosphere

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes are responsible for controlling the distribution of chemically and radiatively important trace gases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Extensive characterization of exchange processes is critical to the development of our understanding and prediction of the climate system. This study examines the occurrence and dynamical and chemical characteristics related to two primary stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes: Rossby wavebreaking and moist convection. Intrusions of air from the tropical upper troposphere into the extratropical stratosphere above the subtropical jet via Rossby wavebreaking potentially have a significant impact on the composition of the lowermost stratosphere (the stratospheric part of the "middleworld"). We first present an analysis of tropospheric intrusion events observed in aircraft observations using kinematic and chemical diagnostics. The transport processes operating during each event are discussed using high-resolution model analyses and backward trajectory calculations. In situ chemical observations of the tropospheric intrusions are used to estimate the mixing timescales of the observed intrusions through use of a simple box model and trace species with different photo-chemical lifetimes. We estimate that the timescale for an intrusion to mix with the background stratospheric air is 5 to 6 days. Detailed analysis of small-scale features with tropospheric characteristics observed in the stratosphere suggests frequent irreversible transport associated with tropospheric intrusions. We also present a 30-year climatology (1981-2010) of anticyclonically and cyclonically sheared Rossby wave-breaking events along the boundary of the tropics in the 350-500 K potential temperature range from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. Lagrangian transport analyses show poleward transport at altitudes below and above the 370-390 K layer. Poleward transport at lower levels is in disagreement with previous studies and is shown to be largely dependent on the choice of tropical boundary. In addition, transport analyses reveal three modes of transport for anticyclonic wavebreaking events near the tropical tropopause (380 K): poleward, equatorward, and bidirectional. These transport modes are associated with distinct characteristics in the geometry of the mean flow. Stratospheric intrusions (tropopause folds) are known to be major contributors to stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The specific mixing processes that lead to irreversible exchange between stratospheric intrusions and the surrounding troposphere, however, are not entirely understood. This study presents direct observations of moist convection penetrating into stratospheric intrusions. The characteristics of convective injection are shown by using in situ aircraft measurements, radar reflectivities, and model analyses. Convective injection is observed at altitudes up to 5 km above the bottom of a stratospheric intrusion. Aircraft measurements show that convective injection in stratospheric intrusions can be uniquely identified by coincident observations of water vapor greater than about 100 ppmv and ozone greater than about 125 ppbv. Trajectory analyses show that convective injection can impact transport in both directions: from troposphere to stratosphere and from stratosphere to troposphere. We present a conceptual model of the synoptic meteorological conditions conducive to convective injection in stratospheric intrusions. In particular, convective injection is found to be associated with a "split front" where the upper-level frontal boundary outruns the surface cold front.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2003. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 79-98).

No description available.

Since 1950's there has been a growing interest of understanding the effects of cosmic ray radiation on the increase in average global temperature. Recent studies showed that galactic cosmic rays play a significant role in the formation of low cloud coverage and its consequent impact on the global temperature variation of the earth. A long-term measurement of the cosmic ray flux distribution at the surface of the earth has been established at Georgia State University. The current effort is focused on understanding the correlations between the cosmic ray particle flux distribution and the atmospheric and space weather measurements. In order to understand the observed atmospheric effects on cosmic ray flux, numerical simulations of cosmic muon and neutron flux variations at the surface of the earth have been carried out with varying air densities in the troposphere and stratosphere based on the Geant4 package. The simulation results show a remarkably good agreement with observations. The simulation results also show that the stratosphere air density variation dominates the effects on the muon flux changes while the density variation in the troposphere mainly influences the neutron count variation. This suggests that the long-term variation of muon flux could possibly direct us to a new path to understand the global climate warming trend.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1999. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 205-225).

Severe ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere has been linked to significant changes in tropospheric circulation patterns in the both hemispheres. Observed Southern Hemisphere circulation changes are easily reproduced in climate models and may be achieved by either increasing ozone depleting substances in a chemistry-climate model(CCM) or by imposing observed ozone losses as a zonally-symmetric perturbation in a prescribed-ozone global circulation model (GCM). In the Northern Hemisphere however, only the CCM method produces a circulation response in agreement with analysis of observations, while the GCM method is unable to produce any significant tropospheric circulation changes from imposing observed zonal-mean Arctic ozone losses. Confidence in a mechanistic link between Arctic stratospheric ozone change and changes in tropospheric circulation is greatly increased if the change can be reproduced using a GCM in addition to being reproducible in a CCM. This thesis demonstrates that by allowing ozone to vary along longitude, and by imposing ozone depletion during a realistic timeframe, the GCM method can produce circulation changes compatible with both the CCM method and observations. An equivalent-latitude coordinate allows the prescribed ozone field, and imposed ozone losses, to follow the polar vortex as it is systematically disturbed or displaced off the pole throughout the winter, producing a realistic circulation response in the troposphere in contrast to when ozone and its imposed losses are zonally-symmetric. Timing the imposed ozone depletion with the breakup of the polar vortex reveals that the appearance of the circulation response is very sensitive to the relative timing of these events and to the pre-existing dynamical state of the polar vortex. These results demonstrate that prescribing ozone as a zonally symmetric climatology within a GCM, as has been recent practice in the literature, is only representative of the Southern Hemisphere and is inappropriate for accurately representing processes within the Arctic stratosphere. Moreover this work demonstrates that these dynamically-evolving zonal asymmetries in ozone, which are not present in zonally-symmetric ozone schemes, play a crucial role in allowing perturbations in the Arctic stratosphere to influence the troposphere and surface conditions.

No description available.

Thesis. 1977. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography : leaves 81-83. / M.S.

This paper presents a review of the basic thermal, chemical and radiation balances existing in the atmosphere and discusses the mechanisms by which jet engine exhaust products can disturb these balances. Possible effects of stratospheric pollution on plant and animal life are discussed. Methods for reducing harmful emissions through engine design modifications are outlined and current successful research programs are surveyed. The SST type aircraft is shown to be a greater threat to the environment than conventional jets because of differences in cruise altitudes. It is concluded that due to the existence of several potential environmental problems associated with contamination of the stratosphere, large scale deployment of the SST should be discouraged, at least until current studies are complete and more data is available.