Although the operations of enterprise includes four perspectives ¡V finance, customer, internal business processes, learning and growth, the content of each perspective can be further divided into many subjects according to the different characteristic of each enterprise or business field. Among each perspective, they all have causal relationship directly or indirectly. Very often, the other perspectives will be impacted when the strategy or performance of one perspective has been changed, and the final overall performance of enterprise will also be affected via this kind of relationship. Because the relationship among these perspectives is complicated and the problem of time delay is serious, it is difficult for a manager to make correct decisions in this complicated operation system. Once the wrong strategy is taken, the growth of enterprise will be postponed, or even worse, the enterprise will be out of business by the potential risk that caused by the wrong strategy. For instance, the magic development stories of Wonder Techs and People Express are both very typical examples. This research takes A Corporation as the object of case study. Through the collection and study of domestic and foreign relative literature, paper and theses, this case study will help the object company find out the opportunity and its orientation on the present and future market environment by STEP analyzing, inspect the company¡¦s competition and threat by Michael E. Porter¡¦s Five Basic Competitive Forces Analysis, and survey the strength, weakness, opportunity and threat of the company on the market by SWOT method. And finally, the causal relationship diagram of the enterprise operations can be drawn by system thinking methodology with the four-perspective framework of balanced scorecard from the overall view of enterprise. The analysis of this causal relationship feedback diagram will check the influence of the whole enterprise¡¦s operation system by all kinds of operation activities, and even, can set up the enterprise¡¦s Dynamic Strategy Map based on this study. The Dynamic Strategy Map will help the manager analyze the operation strategy through the angle of the whole system operations to avoid just emphasizing on the short-term performance and neglecting the necessary of the long-term fundamental measures required for running the enterprise forever. Moreover, it can also assist the manager to pursue the high leverage point from the causal feedback diagram to be the key performance indicator for improving the enterprise¡¦s operation quality and enhancing its competitiveness, and to allocate the limited resources on the most suitable places to create best benefit. This case study takes the present condition of A Corporation as the research scope. Restricted by company¡¦s specific characteristic and present operation condition, the findings of this research cannot be applied to the other enterprises directly. But by comparing with the similar operation activities of the other enterprise or group, the causal relationship feedback among these operation activities still have the same direction of trend with the object enterprise logically. Therefore, the analysis in qualitative aspect will still have its reference value for the other enterprise.

For the thinking of System Dynamics guidance the priority is the understanding and governing the Dynamic Complexity of management strategy in the enterprise operation, how to get over the maze of Dynamic Complexity in the field of strategy management has been becoming the necessary thinking, and also be required as the basic element of enterprise management for all remarkable entrepreneurs. Dynamic Complexity is existing in the nature (Marco Cycling), also embodying in each human being (Micro Cycling), which is changing in every mil-second, interacting and maintaining the cyclic operation in harmonic balance skillfully. As likely, the internal, external environment and conditions of the enterprise operation are also varing, inter-complementing, inter-restricting all the time so as to reciprocally create the constant rule of Causal Feedback. The philosophy concept and method of System Dynamics, System Thinking is completely furnishing a key to release the Dynamic Complexity, so the management strategy can be reviewed, integrated by this marco thinking to the fullness. General reviewing on the operation status of Small-Medium Enterprise (SME) in Taiwan are being become more strictly constricted by the marco economical environment and the owned resource of each self. The sustained years of enterprise operational life and the ratio of survived company numbers of SME are becoming lower-down year by year. Therefore, in the front of management the System Complexity has been more serious now, then how to find out a key to pass thru this maze is the focus of thinking in this thesys researching. By a Questionnaire Investigation in this study the Strategy Themes of SME in Taiwan have been selected by the management of bench-marking enterprises for which they are most concerning about, there-after the Strategy Themes of System Complexity on Strategy Map, Balanced Scorecard are infrastructed. The dynamic inter-relation of Strategy Themes are displayed in the four perspectives of Balanced Scorecard and Strategy Map, there-after the real example of an enterprise is substantially applied to illustrate KPI and target of Balanced Scorecard and the Action Plan in this study. The core of System Complexity for these Strategy Themes are guidied to study by the System Thinking of Causual Diagram, One General Diagram is arised and ten of Causual Diagram are constructed separately from it to present the inter-relative of these Strategy Themes connections, there-after ¡§Positive Loop¡¨ (Reinforcing Loop), Negative Loop (Balancing Loop), Time Delay in each Loop are reviewed and explained the presentation of its inter-relative and followed up the workable leverage solutions as per the experienced reality of business practice. The presentation in each Causual Diagram doesn¡¦t mean to only one implication exclusively, it is giving the management to have the non-linear, marco reviewing more widely on these Strategy Themes and it will be able to find out the solutions and settlement when they are facing or tired-up by the same or similar strategy concerns in the substantial of business operation. This will be the favorable way of the management to find out a key for getting over the maze of System Complexity. Keyword: System Dynamics, System Thinking, Dynamic Complexity, Balanced Scorecard, Strategy Map, Small-Medium Enterprise.

The construction of traditional large-scale central power plants and the extension of power lines in Taiwan have tremendous difficulties in terms of land acquisition and environmental protection for a long time. In addition, one potential risk of energy supply is that over 95% of energy source is imported overseas. Therefore, the most important goal of Taiwan energy policy is to cut down the amount of energy import. To achieve the goal, it is important to explore innovatively local energy source by developing renewable and clean energy. Around the available renewable energy technologies, wind power technique is the most mature one in addition to hydraulic power generation. However due to limited land resources and restrictive regulations, it is expected that wind farm development in Taiwan can only be located offshore, instead of inland. Besides, a multi-functional wind farm site, which involves ocean farm ranch, is desirable to bring mutual benefits for both developers and local stake holders. The current study has used System Dynamics(SD) to analyze the influence of Multi-functional offshore wind farm on economic. We discuss the change of fish catch with building offshore wind farm¡Aand the change of economic output in open ocean with offshore wind farm combine marine ranching. It is therefore easy for the decision makers to comprehend the economical benefit difference if an offshore multi-functional wind farm were to develop in the future. The result of this study is building offshore wind farm will reduced the fishing revenue in a short time¡Abut the total fishing revenue will increased in a long time. The Multi-functional offshore wind farm has better economic output than offshore wind farm.

This thesis describes the implementation of metamodeling approaches as a solution to approximate multivariate, stochastic and dynamic simulations. In the area of statistics, metamodeling (or ``model of a model") refers to the scenario where an empirical model is build based on simulated data. In this thesis, this idea is exploited by using pre-recorded dynamic simulations as a source of simulated dynamic data. Based on this simulated dynamic data, an empirical model is trained to map the dynamic evolution of the system from the current discrete time step, to the next discrete time step. Therefore, it is possible to approximate the dynamics of the complex dynamic simulation, by iteratively applying the trained empirical model. The rationale in creating such approximate dynamic representation is that the empirical models / metamodels are much more affordable to compute than the original dynamic simulation, while having an acceptable prediction error. The successful implementation of metamodeling approaches, as approximations of complex dynamic simulations, requires understanding of the propagation of error during the iterative process. Prediction errors made by the empirical model at earlier times of the iterative process propagate into future predictions of the model. The propagation of error means that the trained empirical model will deviate from the expensive dynamic simulation because of its own errors. Based on this idea, Gaussian process model is chosen as the metamodeling approach for the approximation of expensive dynamic simulations in this thesis. This empirical model was selected not only for its flexibility and error estimation properties, but also because it can illustrate relevant issues to be considered if other metamodeling approaches were used for this purpose.

The problem of dynamic stability of power system has challenged power system engineers since over three decades now. In a generator, the electromechanical coupling between the rotor and the rest of the system causes it to behave in a manner similar to a spring mass damper system, which exhibits an oscillatory behaviour around the equilibrium state, following any disturbance, such as sudden change in loads, change in transmission line parameters, fluctuations in the output of turbine and faults etc. The use of fast acting high gain AVRs and evolution of large interconnected power systems with transfer of bulk power across weak transmission links have further aggravated the problem of low frequency oscillations. The oscillations, which are typically in the frequency range of 0.2 to 3.0 Hz, might be excited by the disturbances in the system or, in some cases, might even build up spontaneously. These oscillations limit the power transmission capability of a network and, sometimes, even cause a loss of synchronism and an eventual breakdown of the entire system. The application of Power System Stabilizer (PSS) can help in damping out these oscillations and improve the system stability. The traditional and till date the most popular solution to this problem is application of conventional power system stabilizer (CPSS). However, continual changes in the operating condition and network parameters result in corresponding change in system dynamics. This constantly changing nature of power system makes the design of CPSS a difficult task. Adaptive control methods have been applied to overcome this problem with some degree of success. However, the complications involved in implementing such controllers have restricted their practical usage. In recent years there has been a growing interest in robust stabilization and disturbance attenuation problem. H∞ control theory provides a powerful tool to deal with robust stabilization and disturbance attenuation problem. However the standard H∞ control theory does not guarantee robust performance under the presence of all the uncertainties in the power plants. This thesis provides a method for designing fixed parameter controller for system to ensure robustness under model uncertainties. Minimum performance required of PSS is decided a priori and achieved over the entire range of operating conditions. A new method has been proposed for tuning the parameters of a fixed gain power system stabilizer. The stabilizer places the troublesome system modes in an acceptable region in the complex plane and guarantees a robust performance over a wide range of operating conditions. Robust D-stability is taken as primary specification for design. Conventional lead/lag PSS structure is retained but its parameters are re-tuned using genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain enhanced performance. The advantage of GA technique for tuning the PSS parameters is that it is independent of the complexity of the performance index considered. It suffices to specify an appropriate objective function and to place finite bounds on the optimized parameters. The efficacy of the proposed method has been tested on single machine as well as multimachine systems. The proposed method of tuning the PSS is an attractive alternative to conventional fixed gain stabilizer design as it retains the simplicity of the conventional PSS and still guarantees a robust acceptable performance over a wide range of operating and system condition. The method suggested in this thesis can be used for designing robust power system stabilizers for guaranteeing the required closed loop performance over a prespecified range of operating and system conditions. The simplicity in design and implementation of the proposed stabilizers makes them better suited for practical applications in real plants.

Univ., Diss.--Padernborn, 2006.

Univ., Diplomarbeit--Zugl.: Karlsruhe, 2008.

The aim of this thesis is to explore the diversification of a major oil company into the. petrochemical business and then through thorough analysis to recommend the appropriate corporate strategies to be followed by the petrochemical subsidiary of such a company in the 1980's and the 1990's. The petrochemical industry has undergone great changes during the last decade. In the early 1970's it entered a new era of maturity, however due to the misplannings of the late 1960's extending to the early 1970's the industry was suddenly faced with significant overcapacity which has persisted to the present date and is expected to last well into the 1980's. The 1974 oil crisis caused a further decline in the growth of demand, hence exacerbating the situation. During the seventies the industry has had to operate under increasing material prices, unlike the past, which when coupled with the problem of overcapacity and the resulting deterioration of prices, has caused considerable decline in the financial ability of the companies to finance their capital expenditure programmes through internal cash generation (which was the case in the industry's 'golden era'). This situation is threatening the long term viability and survival of the petrochemical businesses. A System Dynamics model for a hypothetical petrochemical subsidiary of a major oil company has been constructed which embodies all the policies inherent in such a system. The dynamic behaviour of the model closely resembles that expected from the real system such as the declining financial ability, which is mostly due to the inflationary conditions. Through thorough analysis, the impact of varying inflation level on the performance of the system was explored, and the need for adopting suitable accounting policies which would take account of the replacement costs of assets, during periods of high inflation, was proposed. The adoption of a number of policies led to a certain degree of improvement in the financial performance of the system, and these are recommended concerning the corporate strategy of the company for the next two decades. Finally it was discovered that due to the low level of growth of demand (compared to the past), the large economic sizes of the petrochemical plants and the market share consensus, the companies will have to go into joint ventures in the future.

The world shipping freight market for the transportation of bulk cargo - liquid and dry - is characterised by the somewhat erratic and extreme fluctuations exhibited by many of the measures that can be used to describe the "state" of the market. Such 'measures' include the spot freight rates - the cost to the shipper of chartering a unit of shipping capacity 'on the spot' (that is, not reserving the vessel in advance), - the proportion of chartered tonnage at any time taken on a period (time) basis as opposed to a voyage (single) basis, and the rate at which orders for new vessels reach the shipyards. These factors are extremely variable, and have exhibited a similar form of behaviour for a large number of years. This present thesis describes an attempt to investigate the behaviour of the freight market (bulk cargo); the aim of the investigation being to identify the structure of the market system and to construct a System Dynamics model which describes the complex relationships in the market and which can be used to explore questions relating to present or future market behaviour. The construction of such a model is described, together with an exhaustive chapter on the analysis of the model, covering loop-analysis, the behaviour of the model under various test inputs, and the senstivity of the model to significant changes in parameter values. The final chapter considers the use of the model, and, in particular, describes its use in an investigation of the feasibility or desirability of introducing tonnagestabilization schemes into the market. Such schemes aim to prevent the freight rates from falling to unacceptably low values, by implementing a scheme whereby tonnage is withdrawn from operation and laid-up: the decrease in the supply of tonnage then has a positive influence on the freight rates. It is concluded that the problems involved in designing such schemes preclude the schemes from implementation. The appendices cover the various data used in the determination of market relationships, as well as the computer listing, in Fortran, of the market model. Also included in an appendix is a description of the application of System Dynamics to a hypothetical company. The tcompany model' allows for the examination of chartering policies and lay-up policies under a variety of conditions of market demand.

The current approach to performance measurement in British Columbia is to select and match performance measures with strategic goals and objectives so that health administrators and decision makers can evaluate the performance of different care sectors (e.g. primary, community and acute care) within the provincial health system. Although this approach offers basic understanding of system performance, it is static and considers the performance of organizational components in isolation from their interrelationships and external influences. The purpose of this research is to enhance the current performance measurement approach in BC by linking health system variables through causal relationships and feedback loops that can impact and lead to health system sustainability. The qualitative system dynamics method was applied to develop a conceptual performance measurement model. Fifteen interviews with stakeholders were conducted at the BC Ministry of Health to validate and improve the pre-validation model. A post-validation model was then created based on the feedback and comments from the 15 interview participants. As a product of this research, the post-validation model, Web of Measures 2.0, will explain how the identified cause and feedback mechanisms both internal and external to the BC health system may help determine policy levers for designing and developing quality improvement initiatives. Although quantitative analysis is out of scope for this research, potential benefits of inputting BC data into the proposed model are discussed at the end of this thesis. / Graduate / 0769 / 0790 / qi.william.yang@gmail.com