The primary question that the thesis investigates is: what impacts could climate change have on cattle water demand and supply in Khurutshe, Botswana. This thesis is pursued in light of the fact that there is a lack of knowledge on climate change and cattle water demand and supply. Thus, this thesis aims at filling the gap in knowledge on climate change and cattle water resources in Botswana and other semi-arid environments. A cattle water demand and supply model is developed to investigate the primary question of the thesis. The model is driven by rainfall and temperature over time as these variables largely determine cattle water supply and demand, respectively. Climate scenarios for 2050 are constructed using SimCLIM (developed by the International Global Change Institute of the University of Waikato) based on HadCM3 and CSIRO Mk2 General Circulation Models (GCMs). Three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are used: A1B, A1FT and A1T. These emission scenarios were selected based on their coverage for possible future Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG). Climate scenarios show that by 2050 the temperature for the Khurutshe area could increase by as much as 3 oC depending on the GCM and SRES emission scenario and that there could be a decline in rainfall of up to 14% per month. CSIRO Mk2 displayed the maximum decline in rainfall while HadCM3 depicted the maximum increase in temperature. The model is implemented in the Khurutshe of the Kgatleng District, Botswana. The results reported are for Masama Ranch and also for the whole of the Khurutshe area. The results show that climate change could lead to an annual increase of more than 20% in cattle water demand by 2050 due to an increase in temperature. In addition, climate change could lead to a decline in the contribution of surface pan water to cattle water supply. Overall, there could be an increase in abstraction of groundwater for cattle by 2050 due to an increase in demand and a decline in forage water content and surface pan water. Observations in semi-arid environments of Africa indicate that farmers encounter problems of declining borehole yields and local depletion in groundwater in summer and drought years when demand peaks. In addition, it has been observed that during drought more cattle are lost as a result of lack of water, particularly for those whose cattle are reliant on surface water. Thus, the results from this study indicate that climate change could enhance this problem. In the thesis I have shown the importance of integrating climate change impacts on water demand and supply when assessing water resources, which has been ignored in the past. Some of the policy options that are discussed are tradable pumping permits for controlling abstraction and allocation issues in the Khurutshe aquifer and, controlling stocking numbers. This is in recognition of the fact that climate change could result in more reliance on groundwater for both cattle farming and urban water supply hence compromising sustainability and allocation issues especially for the Khurutshe aquifer which is earmarked to supply the city of Gaborone and surrounding villages in drought periods.

Institutional and epistemological differences between science and management present a challenge to the implementation of sustainable environmental management. Environmental problems are complex and require at least multidisciplinary, but most effectively transdisciplinary approaches for learning, understanding, decision-making and problem solving. This means building bridges between institutional and epistemological differences. The role of system dynamics modelling in integrating environmental science and management is examined in this thesis. An action research methodology is adopted where, over cycles of case studies, the practical application of system dynamics modelling is evaluated. The role of system dynamics modelling in the management of coastal sand dunes, tourism, threatened species management and water management is explored in the case studies. It has been found that system dynamics modelling is a potentially powerful tool for integrating environmental science and management, principally assisting communication between scientists and management stakeholders. System dynamics group model-building, in particular, has the potential to facilitate stakeholder learning and assist stakeholders to think holistically about the complex systems they are trying to manage. It was also found that engaging stakeholders in system dynamics group model-building process is difficult. A model of factors influencing the adoption of system dynamics group model-building has been developed from this research. The model can be applied to assess the suitability of potential case studies and identify potential weaknesses that need to be addressed if the approach is to succeed.

Over the past of decade, the bullwhip effect has increasingly become a popular topic for researchers and practitioners in the area of supply chain management since it negatively influences cost, inventory, reliability and other important business processes in supply chain agents. Although there are many remedies for the bullwhip effect summarised in existing literature, it still occurs in several industries. This is partly because it is difficult to apply the results from existing research which analyse the bullwhip effect mainly in a simple supply chain. In addition, several tools and methodologies developed are used for analysing the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain with several constraints. Therefore, this research aims to develop a unique simulation approach based on system dynamics modelling and Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for quantifying and reducing the bullwhip effect in a multi-product, multi-stage supply chain. System dynamics modelling which is a powerful simulation approach for studying and managing complex feedback system was selected as a main tool in this research. In addition, ANFIS was implemented in system dynamics modelling in order to increase the reliability of a system dynamics model for modelling soft variables. The proposed model covers variables influencing the bullwhip effect which are the structure of supply chain network, supply chain contributions and supply chain performances. As a result, a two layer simulation with three generic models was developed. The flexibility of this proposed model is the ability to model various types of ordering policies which are basic inventory policies, Material requirement planning (MRP) system and Just in time (JIT) approach. Three actual manufacturing supply chains were used as case studies to validate and demonstrate the flexibility of the model developed in this research. This model satisfactorily quantifies the bullwhip effect and the bullwhip effect levels identified in these case studies are significantly decreased by using the proposed simulation model. The successful results indicate that the model can be a useful alternative tool for supply chain managers to quantify and reduce the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chains.

Current deployments of mobile commerce focus mostly on digital content. However, mobile commerce will grow rapidly with the increased use of portable devices such as cellular phones and personal digital assistants (PDA), increased network bandwidth, and the availability of a wider range of mobile commerce services and transactions. As the revenue generated from mobile commerce is expected to skyrocket in the coming years, strategists are turning their attention to untapped emerging markets in the developing countries. Understanding how mobile commerce will develop in countries like China, where huge market potential exists, is of paramount importance in order to develop effective strategies that will positively affect its course. Modelling the diffusion of mobile commerce in a country is a difficult task due to the non-linear, complex and uncertain nature of its operating environment. A System Dynamics approach is more appropriate to model such a complex system. The main objective of this study is to illustrate the process of developing System Dynamics models for simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China by using a subset of the factors involved. In order to achieve this objective, the Chinese mobile commerce was modelled as the interaction of three subsystems, namely: population evolution in China; mobile commerce diffusion; and the influence from the provision of mobile commerce terminals (MCT) on mobile commerce diffusion. Each subsystem was modelled by identifying the factors influencing its development as well as the interactions between the factors. The subsystems were calibrated using historical and forecasted data whenever they were available. The validation of the subsystems was also performed through extensive sensitivity analysis. The complete model was used for experimenting with some typical Chinese mobile commerce scenarios for the purpose of analysing mobile commerce trends and designing strategies to exert positive influences on those trends. The simulation of the submodels provided useful insights into their respective areas for controlling their development. Simulation of the population development submodel showed that, in addition to family planning policies, urbanisation rates and life quality were important factors that significantly influenced population dynamics in China. Simulation of the mobile commerce diffusion submodel showed that the time when mobile commerce is implemented will significantly influence its market expansion speed i.e. the later mobile commerce is implemented, the quicker the market will expand. The existence of floating populations in China will be a big advantage in starting up the rural market. However, if mobile commerce is implemented too late, the penetration in rural areas will be negligible. Simulation of the MCT provision submodel showed the importance of opening the Chinese market to foreign suppliers and the coordination of strategies regarding the design and supply of MCTs with strategies for the growth of mobile commerce in China. This study is a first attempt to simulate the diffusion of mobile commerce in China using System Dynamics. The results obtained showed that the models developed were useful for understanding and controlling the future diffusion of mobile commerce in China.

The history of management practice is filled with innovations that failed to live up to the promise suggested by their early success. A paradox facing organization theory is that the failure of these innovations often cannot be attributed to an intrinsic lack of efficacy. To resolve this paradox, in this paper I study the process of innovation implementation. Working from existing theoretical frameworks, I synthesize a model that describes the process through which participants in an organization develop commitment to using a newly adopted innovation. I then translate that framework into a formal model and analyze it using computer simulation. The analysis suggests three new constructs—reversion, regeneration and the motivation threshold—characterizing the dynamics of implementation. Taken together, these constructs offer an alternative explanation for the paradox of innovations that produce early results but fail to find a permanent home in the organizations that adopt them.

There is now considerable controversy concerning the role that incremental change plays in the process of organizational transformation. Some scholars assert that incremental change is the primary source of resistance to more radical re-orientations, while others argue that on occasion, ongoing incremental change can produce dramatic transformation. To help reconcile these competing perspectives, in this paper I report the results of an inductive study of one firm's successful attempt to improve continuously and incrementally its core manufacturing process. The principal results of this effort are: (1) to challenge the current view of the source of change in process-oriented improvement initiatives; and (2) to offer an alternative characterization of the mechanisms through which competence-enhancing, incremental change actually occurs. The theory emerging from this analysis provides one path to resolving the dilemma posed by incremental change processes that can, on occasion, produce organizational transformation, but more often limit the organization's ability to adapt to its environment. / MIT Center for Innovation in Product Development under NSF Cooperative Agreement Number EEC-9529140

Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one’s control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply chain management thus faces a pressing need to maintain the expected yields of the system in risk situations. To achieve that, we need to both identify potential risks and evaluate their impacts, and at the same time design risk mitigation policies to locate and relocate resources to deal with risk events. This dissertation aims to analyse how supply chain risks could be effectively managed. This is done firstly by positioning the research agenda in supply chain risk management (SCRM). Then, methods for effective management of supply chain risk are identified and analysed. In order to find these, we develop a research framework in which the supply chain system is divided into subsystems based on the operations of make, source and deliver; as well as on material, financial and information flows. Furthermore, research questions are raised in order to understand the impact of risks on supply chains, to identify the performance measures for monitoring supply chains, and to determine risk mitigation strategies for improving system performances. This dissertation includes a bibliometric analysis of relevant literature of SCRM published in recent years. Based on the co-citation analysis, we identify the changing interest in SCRM, from performance-focused individual issues in the early years to integrated system issues with management perspective in recent years. We also identify the growing importance of information issues in SCRM. However, there is a relative lack of research into risk mitigation focusing on information flows in the literature. This dissertation also develops a conceptual model for analysing supply chain risk. The adoption of tools from the established field of reliability engineering provides a systematic yet robust process for risk analysis in supply chains. We have found that the potential use of a stand-alone tool of Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) or a hybrid application of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), will be most appropriate in SCRM. Apart from above mentioned studies, this dissertation then includes three manuscripts respectively investigating the risk mitigation policies in SCRM. First, we suggest a dynamic pricing policy when facing supply yield risk, such as price postponement, where price is determined only after receiving the delivery information. This postponed pricing, can improve the balance between supply and demand, especially when the delivery quantity is small, demand has a low uncertainty and there is a wide range when demand is sensible to price change. In another paper, a system dynamics model is developed to investigate the dispersion of disruption on the supply chain operation as well as along the network. Based on this simulation model, policies are tested to observe their influence to the performance of the supply chain. The study results support the benefit of a dual-sourcing strategy. Furthermore, information sharing, appropriate order splitting and time to react would further improve the supply chain performance when disruption strikes. In the last paper, we study how capacity should be expanded when a new product is introduced into the market. The major risk here is due to a quick capacity expansion with large investments which could be difficult to recover. Using the Bass diffusion model to describe demand development, we study how capacity expansion, together with sales plan could affect the economics of the system. Using sales information for the forecast, delaying the sales and adding initial inventories, should create a better scheme of cash flows. This dissertation contributes in several ways to the research field of SCRM. It plots research advancements which provide further directions of research in SCRM. In conjunction with the conceptual model, simulations and mathematical modelling, we have also provided suggestions for how a better and more robust supply chain could be designed and managed. The diversified modelling approaches and risk issues should also enrich the literature and stimulate future study in SCRM.

Coastal zone become the object which is used to develop when the economy developed quickly and population increase. As a result of coastal zone is a region which involves economy, environment, ecology, and engineering. We must integrated many factors and coordinated related groups. Then we can achieve the goal of sustainable development. The research involved the knowledge and experiences from Europe, American, and Japan. Except they used a construct of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) to think the questions, they combined ecology, water conservancy engineering, social economic activities, and environmental protection. Then they used DSR framework as the foundation to establish the system which evaluated sustainable development of the coastal zone, and they can develop the system dynamic model analyzing the coastal management in many conditions. Land subsidence is a potential crisis, it grows obviously with the time and has the impact to the environment., When typhoon occurs in the west part of Taiwan coastal area, draining which is unable to operate may cause flood, mole avalanche, seawater intrusion and soil salinization. First we must understand the origin and the management of land subsidence, then we can make the effective strategies by researching different background and geography characteristic of the region. As a result of land subsidence involves economy, environment, ecology and engineering, the process of land subsidence is a complex problem which has multiple causes. This problem usually involves time-delay and long-term effect. System dynamics is an approach that is used to describe, explore and analyze the procedure, information and the boundary of organizations in complex systems. Such model is good for solving dynamic complex problems with non-linearity, causal circulation, information feedback and time-delay as long as the estimative parameter fall in its confidence level. The object of the research is to inspect land subsidence in the Pingtung plain. Therefore, this study proposes to find strategies which is suitable to solve interested problems according to integrate social-economic and ecologic-environment development. The framework of the research is based on the DSR (Driving forces-State-Response) index, and it makes evaluated factor from collecting domestic and foreign literature. Then we selected the important factors and its weight value by using the method of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) to visit the expert and the scholar. According to above, we developed the model of system dynamics and build confidence in the model. In addition, the result of the simulation can provide good supporting information for decision makers by using the model for several strategies simulation and making the index to represent the performance of simulation analysis.

Steel producers that employ niche market strategies are continuously seeking to reduce production cost while maintaining adiverse product mix. The business model is typically based onmarketing of high–strength special or stainless steels. However,the desire to avoid direct cost competition is over time gradually leading towards increased product variety and smaller ordervolumes (tonnes per order) for each product. This thesis analyses how production cost is linked to productvariety in steel strip production. Results are based on new modelsfor assessment of opportunities for performance improvement inhigh product–variety steel production. The need for flexible production processes increases with increasing product variety. Operational capabilities linked to processflexibility determine the extent to which steel producers caneliminate in–process inventory and accomplish close coupling between process steps. Niche market producers that invest inprocess flexibility improvements can lower production costs bothdue to reduced work–in–process and lower energy consumption.An additional benefit is reduced environmental impact. The following problems are addressed: • Development of a method to assess the influence of productvariety on performance in steel production. • Development of models of continuous casting and hotrolling that account for product variety and cost effectswith consideration of varying degrees of process flexibility. • Development of a strategy process model that focus on thestrategic value of operational capabilities related to processflexibility. Investments in operational capabilities regarding process flexibility have a strategic impact. An appreciation for the effectsof process flexibility should permeate the organisation’s daily work since the accumulated contribution of many, seemingly unimportant, incremental changes significantly influences thestrategic opportunities of the company. / Stålproducenter med nischmarknadsstrategier försöker ständigt sänka sina produktionskostnader samtidigt som en varierad produktflora bibehålls. Affärsmodellen bygger i typfallet på försäljning av höghållfasta specialstål eller rostfria stål. Strävan att undvika direkt priskonkurrens leder dock med tiden gradvis till ökad produktvariation och mindre ordervolymer (ton per order)för varje produkt. Denna avhandling analyserar hur produktionskostnaden är kopplad till graden av produktvariation vid tillverkning av band.Resultaten bygger på nya modeller för utvärdering av förutsättningarnaför prestandaförbättring i stålindustri med stor produktvariation. Behovet av flexibla produktionsprocesser ökar med ökande produktvariation. Praktiska förmågor kopplade till processflexibilitet avgör till vilken grad ståltillverkare förmår att eliminera mellanlager och åstadkomma en tät koppling mellan processteg.Nischmarknadsproducenter som investerar i förbättrad flexibilitet kan sänka sina produktionskostnader både genom minskad mängd produkter i arbete och reducerad energiförbrukning. Detta medför också minskad miljöbelastning.Följande problemställningar adresseras: • Utveckling av en metod för att utvärdera inverkan av produktvariationpå prestanda vid ståltillverkning. • Utveckling av en modell för stränggjutning och varmvalsningsom tar hänsyn till produktvariation och kostnadseffekterför olika grad av processflexibilitet. • Utveckling av en strategimodell som fokuserar på det strategiskavärdet av operativa förmågor kopplade till processflexibilitet. Investeringar i operativa förmågor vad avser processflexibilitet är av strategisk betydelse. Förståelse för betydelsen av processflexibilitetbör genomsyra det dagliga arbetet eftersom det samladebidraget av många, till synes obetydliga, små förändringar haren avgörande inverkan på företagets strategiska förutsättningar / QC 20100810

The mining of oil sands in the sub-humid region of Northern Alberta, Canada causes large-scale landscape disturbance, which subsequently requires extensive reclamation to re-establish the surface and subsurface hydrology. The reconstructed watersheds examined in this study are located at the Syncrude Canada Limited mine site, 40 km North of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. The three experimental reconstructed watersheds, with nominal soil thicknesses of 1.0 m, 0.50 m and 0.35 m comprised a thin layer of peat (15-20 cm) over varying thicknesses of secondary (till) soil, have been constructed to cover saline sodic overburden and to provide sufficient moisture storage for vegetation while minimizing surface runoff and deep percolation to the underlying shale overburden. In order to replicate the hydrological behavior, assess the sustainability, and trace the evolution over time of the reclaimed watersheds, a suitable modeling tool is needed.</p> <p>In this research, a model is developed using the system dynamics approach to simulate the hydrological processes in the three experimental reconstructed watersheds and to assess their ability to provide the various watershed functions. The model simulates the vertical and lateral water movement, surface runoff and evapotranspiration within each watershed. Actual evapotranspiration, which plays an important role in the hydrology of the Canadian semi-arid regions, is simulated using an indexed soil moisture method. The movement of water within the various soil layers of the cover is based on parametric relationships in conjunction with conceptual infiltration models. The feedback relationships among the various dynamic hydrologic processes in the watershed are captured in the developed System Dynamic Watershed Model (SDWM). </p> <p>Most hydrological models are evaluated using runoff as the determining criterion for model calibration and validation, while accounting for the movement of moisture in the soil as a water loss. Since one of the primary objectives of a reconstructed watershed is to maintain the natural flora and fauna, it is important to recognize that soil moisture plays an important role in assessing the performance of the reconstructed watersheds. In turn, soil moisture becomes an influential factor for quantifying the health of the reconstructed watershed. The developed model has been calibrated and validated with data for two years (2001-2002), upholding the sensitive relationship between soil moisture and runoff. Accurate calibration of the model based on simulations of soil moisture in the various soil layers improves its overall performance. The model was subsequently used to simulate the three sub-watersheds for five years, with changing the calibrated model parameters to use them as indicators of watershed evolution. The simulated results were compared with the observed values. </p> <p>The results of the study illustrate that all three watersheds are still evolving. Failure to identify a unique parameter set for simulating the watershed response supports the hypothesis of watershed evolution. Soil moisture exchange between the till and peat layers changed with time in all of the watersheds. There was also a modest change in the water movement from the till to shale layers in each of the sub-watersheds. Vegetation is increasing in all of watersheds although there is an indication that one of the sub-watersheds may be sustaining deep rooted vegetation. The results demonstrate the successful application of the system dynamics approach and the developed model in simulating the hydrology of reconstructed watersheds and the potential for using this approach in assessing complex hydrologic systems.