Beer Game developed by Slaon School of Management didn¡¦t add price variable into the game. It¡¦s reasons were : (1) As long as there is time delay, it will induce dynamic complexity. (2) If there is price variable, maybe we can¡¦t observe patterns and structure. In the research, we try to add price variable into Beer Game to verify the statement made by Slaon School of Management. Besides, we can explore whether it will influence players¡¦ decisions or not. The learning effects are also we concern about. After a few experiment, althought bullwhip effect is still existing, it¡¦s not much apparent then before. Besides, players are affected by price variables. From discussions after the game, we can find players lack systems thinking, they have misperceptions of feedback and get used to put blame on others. Those learning effects are the same as traditional beer game induced. However, beer game with price variable can conclude many behaviors made by players. To contrast with the panic buying and stock conditions, such as respirators panic buying in 2003, toilet paper price rise caused by pulp cost increased in 2004, players can simulate the real world throuth playing the game. They can reflect and learn, then bring this experience into real life.

Due to the progress of display manufacturing technology, TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display) has been widely put in use gradually such as monitor¡Blaptop and LCD TV. We also can find TFT-LCD that has already entered the market of the consuming products from IT (Information Technology). And the competition of the panel industry, besides manufacturing technologies, the dynamic demands of upstream, downstream and consumers are related that will effect the performance of panel markers or whole supply chain. Which is called bullwhip effect. Especially, the configuration is vertical partition in Taiwan and the buffwhip effect would be more significant than other countries. This paper discusses the key factors of bullwhip effect and them constructs the system dynamic models to explore the difference. Finally, we will analyze the TFT-LCD members of Taiwan to figure out the decision rules to decrease bullwhip effect.

This thesis intended to increase the understanding of bullwhip effect in electrical appliance industry in the Chinese market. In the supply chain management, the bullwhip effect is a phenomenon can never be ignored. The bullwhip effect has being defined as information distortion when orders move form downstream enterprises to the supplier (Lee et al 1997b). The distortion information was amplified step by step, and finally propagates to the enterprise marketing, logistics, manufacture and other fields. The existence of the bullwhip effect weakens the ability to add value and competitiveness of the supply chain. Hence, enterprises must collaborate and jointly mitigate the bullwhip effect to reach groups coexist. This work focus on the electrical appliance industry in China, and based on the successful experience of the case company, Haier Group, to formulate recommendations. Firstly, this research analysis the four causes of the bullwhip effect: demand forecast, price fluctuations, order quantity and short game (Lee et al 1997a). After analyze these causes, this study begins to identify the impacts which the bullwhip effect bring to the members of supply chains. The most obvious impacts can be defined as inaccurate forecasting, inadequate customer service and high inventory cost. Next, the paper evaluate the measures of Haier implement to dampen the bullwhip effect. Information sharing, the key point to solve the problem has been use in Haier. In addition to this, the Just in Time (JIT) strategy which include JIT purchase, JIT delivery and JIT distribution is another important measure for Haier to achieve the goal of mitigate the bullwhip effect.  Overall Every Control and Clear (OEC) management was created by Haier Group and aims to improve the supply chain management, is another countermeasure to deal with the bullwhip effect. Besides, the inventory management also have an important role in gaining the control of bullwhip effect. In summary, the successful experience on dampening the bullwhip effect of Haier can shine a light for electrical appliance industry in China on solving the similar problem. Information sharing is always the key point to mitigate the bullwhip effect, and related instructions should build to remove the barriers of sharing information.

This paper constructs a model of a supply chain to examine how demand volatility is passed upstream through the chain. In particular, we seek to determine how likely it is that the chain experiences a bullwhip effect, where the variance of the upstream firm’s production exceeds the variance of the downstream firm’s sales. We show that the bullwhip effect is more likely to occur and is greater in size in supply chains in which inventory control is centralized rather than decentralized, that is, exercised by the downstream firm.

This paper constructs a model of a supply chain to examine how demand volatility is passed upstream through the chain. In particular, we seek to determine how likely it is that the chain experiences a bullwhip effect, where the variance of the upstream firm’s production exceeds the variance of the downstream firm’s sales. We show that the bullwhip effect is more likely to occur and is greater in size in supply chains in which inventory control is centralized rather than decentralized, that is, exercised by the downstream firm.

Effective supply chain management gains much attention from industry and academia because it helps firms across a supply chain to reduce cost and improve customer service level efficiently. Focusing on one of the key challenges of the supply chains, namely, demand uncertainty, this dissertation extends the work of Zhao, Xie, and Leung so as to examine the effects of forecasting method selection coupled with information sharing on supply chain performance in a dynamic business environment. The results of this study showed that under various scenarios, advanced forecasting methods such as neural network and GARCH models play a more significant role when capacity tightness increases and is more important to the retailers than to the supplier under certain circumstances in terms of supply chain costs. Thus, advanced forecasting models should be promoted in supply chain management. However, this study also demonstrated that forecasting methods not capable of modeling features of certain demand patterns significantly impact a supply chain's performance. That is, a forecasting method misspecified for characteristics of the demand pattern usually results in higher supply chain costs. Thus, in practice, supply chain managers should be cognizant of the cost impact of selecting commonly used traditional forecasting methods, such as moving average and exponential smoothing, in conjunction with various operational and environmental factors, to keep supply chain cost under control. This study demonstrated that when capacity tightness is high for the supplier, information sharing plays a more important role in effective supply chain management. In addition, this study also showed that retailers benefit directly from information sharing when advanced forecasting methods are employed under certain conditions.

Over the past of decade, the bullwhip effect has increasingly become a popular topic for researchers and practitioners in the area of supply chain management since it negatively influences cost, inventory, reliability and other important business processes in supply chain agents. Although there are many remedies for the bullwhip effect summarised in existing literature, it still occurs in several industries. This is partly because it is difficult to apply the results from existing research which analyse the bullwhip effect mainly in a simple supply chain. In addition, several tools and methodologies developed are used for analysing the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain with several constraints. Therefore, this research aims to develop a unique simulation approach based on system dynamics modelling and Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for quantifying and reducing the bullwhip effect in a multi-product, multi-stage supply chain. System dynamics modelling which is a powerful simulation approach for studying and managing complex feedback system was selected as a main tool in this research. In addition, ANFIS was implemented in system dynamics modelling in order to increase the reliability of a system dynamics model for modelling soft variables. The proposed model covers variables influencing the bullwhip effect which are the structure of supply chain network, supply chain contributions and supply chain performances. As a result, a two layer simulation with three generic models was developed. The flexibility of this proposed model is the ability to model various types of ordering policies which are basic inventory policies, Material requirement planning (MRP) system and Just in time (JIT) approach. Three actual manufacturing supply chains were used as case studies to validate and demonstrate the flexibility of the model developed in this research. This model satisfactorily quantifies the bullwhip effect and the bullwhip effect levels identified in these case studies are significantly decreased by using the proposed simulation model. The successful results indicate that the model can be a useful alternative tool for supply chain managers to quantify and reduce the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chains.

Over the past of decade, the bullwhip effect has increasingly become a popular topic for researchers and practitioners in the area of supply chain management since it negatively influences cost, inventory, reliability and other important business processes in supply chain agents. Although there are many remedies for the bullwhip effect summarised in existing literature, it still occurs in several industries. This is partly because it is difficult to apply the results from existing research which analyse the bullwhip effect mainly in a simple supply chain. In addition, several tools and methodologies developed are used for analysing the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain with several constraints. Therefore, this research aims to develop a unique simulation approach based on system dynamics modelling and Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for quantifying and reducing the bullwhip effect in a multi-product, multi-stage supply chain. System dynamics modelling which is a powerful simulation approach for studying and managing complex feedback system was selected as a main tool in this research. In addition, ANFIS was implemented in system dynamics modelling in order to increase the reliability of a system dynamics model for modelling soft variables. The proposed model covers variables influencing the bullwhip effect which are the structure of supply chain network, supply chain contributions and supply chain performances. As a result, a two layer simulation with three generic models was developed. The flexibility of this proposed model is the ability to model various types of ordering policies which are basic inventory policies, Material requirement planning (MRP) system and Just in time (JIT) approach. Three actual manufacturing supply chains were used as case studies to validate and demonstrate the flexibility of the model developed in this research. This model satisfactorily quantifies the bullwhip effect and the bullwhip effect levels identified in these case studies are significantly decreased by using the proposed simulation model. The successful results indicate that the model can be a useful alternative tool for supply chain managers to quantify and reduce the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chains.

O funcionamento da cadeia de suprimentos é um tema atual que tem motivado muitas pesquisas para o entendimento da sua dinâmica como fonte de obtenção de vantagem competitiva. O bullwhip effect - efeito de oscilação de demanda dentro da cadeia de suprimentos - é um dos causadores de ineficiências operacionais e de consequentes gastos desnecessários. Esse fenômeno ainda não foi estudado em sua totalidade; a maioria das pesquisas até então utilizaram-se de análises quantitativas, não levando em conta fatores qualitativos presentes em situações de oscilação de demanda, tais como: a experiência do programador de demanda, as capabilidades desenvolvidas pela empresa e os métodos que ela utiliza para integrar o conhecimento sobre o fenômeno. Esta pesquisa contribui nesse sentido. Coloca em evidência, por meio da análise qualitativa do bullwhip effect e dos fundamentos do processo de capacidade absortiva. Busca-se integrar esses dois conceitos, até então não abordados conjuntamente. A reunião desse referencial e dos resultados obtidos por intermédio das observações deverá fornecer subsídios para a melhor compreensão do fenômeno. A estratégia de pesquisa selecionada se deu por meio de estudos de caso com três empresas brasileiras, de diferentes setores. Entrevistaram-se sete executivos das empresas, responsáveis pela programação da produção e a análise de demanda. Foram encontrados muitos pontos convergentes entre a literatura e a prática empresarial, principalmente sobre os fundamentos da capacidade absortiva em uma situação de bullwhip effect, como também entre as diferentes dimensões da capacidade absortiva per se. A principal contribuição da pesquisa está em integrar orientações teóricas e ações práticas desenvolvidas pelas empresas sob o bullwhip effect, relacionadas com a capacidade absortiva, dando destaque aos fatores humanos, o que propicia um referencial mais abrangente para examinar esses processos. Em nível gerencial, oferece-se subsídios aos gestores no aprimoramento de técnicas de absorção do conhecimento em situações de oscilação de demanda, tornando suas previsões e a produção mais eficientes. / The operation of the supply chain is a current topic and it has motivated many researches in order to understand its dynamic as source of obtaining competitive advantage. The bullwhip effect - the effect of oscillating demand inside the supply chain - is one of the originators of operational inefficiencies and consequent unnecessary expenditure. This phenomenon has not been studied in its totality yet; most researches have used quantitative analysis so far, not taking into account qualitative factors which are present in oscillating demand situations, such as: the experience of the demand manager, the capabilities developed by the company and the methods which it uses to integrate the knowledge about the phenomenon. This research contributes in this sense. It highlights through the bullwhip effect qualitative analysis and the process fundamentals of absorptive capacity. It pursuits to integrate these two concepts which have not thus far been approached together. The reunion of this reference and the obtained results through remarks should provide subsidies for better comprehension of the phenomenon. The research strategy selected was through case studies with three Brazilian companies of different sectors. Seven executives of the companies were interviewed; they are responsible for the production programming and for the demand analysis. Many convergent points were found between literature and the business practice, mainly concerning the fundamentals of absorptive capacity in a bullwhip effect situation, as well as among the different dimensions of absorptive capacity per se. The main contribution of the research is to integrate theoretical orientations and practical actions developed by the companies under the bullwhip effect, which are related to the absorptive capacity, highlighting to the human factors, which provides a reference more comprehensive to examine these processes. In a managerial level, subsidies are offered to the managers in the improvement of the absorption techniques of the knowledge in oscillating demand situations, making their forecasts and the production more efficient.

O funcionamento da cadeia de suprimentos é um tema atual que tem motivado muitas pesquisas para o entendimento da sua dinâmica como fonte de obtenção de vantagem competitiva. O bullwhip effect - efeito de oscilação de demanda dentro da cadeia de suprimentos - é um dos causadores de ineficiências operacionais e de consequentes gastos desnecessários. Esse fenômeno ainda não foi estudado em sua totalidade; a maioria das pesquisas até então utilizaram-se de análises quantitativas, não levando em conta fatores qualitativos presentes em situações de oscilação de demanda, tais como: a experiência do programador de demanda, as capabilidades desenvolvidas pela empresa e os métodos que ela utiliza para integrar o conhecimento sobre o fenômeno. Esta pesquisa contribui nesse sentido. Coloca em evidência, por meio da análise qualitativa do bullwhip effect e dos fundamentos do processo de capacidade absortiva. Busca-se integrar esses dois conceitos, até então não abordados conjuntamente. A reunião desse referencial e dos resultados obtidos por intermédio das observações deverá fornecer subsídios para a melhor compreensão do fenômeno. A estratégia de pesquisa selecionada se deu por meio de estudos de caso com três empresas brasileiras, de diferentes setores. Entrevistaram-se sete executivos das empresas, responsáveis pela programação da produção e a análise de demanda. Foram encontrados muitos pontos convergentes entre a literatura e a prática empresarial, principalmente sobre os fundamentos da capacidade absortiva em uma situação de bullwhip effect, como também entre as diferentes dimensões da capacidade absortiva per se. A principal contribuição da pesquisa está em integrar orientações teóricas e ações práticas desenvolvidas pelas empresas sob o bullwhip effect, relacionadas com a capacidade absortiva, dando destaque aos fatores humanos, o que propicia um referencial mais abrangente para examinar esses processos. Em nível gerencial, oferece-se subsídios aos gestores no aprimoramento de técnicas de absorção do conhecimento em situações de oscilação de demanda, tornando suas previsões e a produção mais eficientes. / The operation of the supply chain is a current topic and it has motivated many researches in order to understand its dynamic as source of obtaining competitive advantage. The bullwhip effect - the effect of oscillating demand inside the supply chain - is one of the originators of operational inefficiencies and consequent unnecessary expenditure. This phenomenon has not been studied in its totality yet; most researches have used quantitative analysis so far, not taking into account qualitative factors which are present in oscillating demand situations, such as: the experience of the demand manager, the capabilities developed by the company and the methods which it uses to integrate the knowledge about the phenomenon. This research contributes in this sense. It highlights through the bullwhip effect qualitative analysis and the process fundamentals of absorptive capacity. It pursuits to integrate these two concepts which have not thus far been approached together. The reunion of this reference and the obtained results through remarks should provide subsidies for better comprehension of the phenomenon. The research strategy selected was through case studies with three Brazilian companies of different sectors. Seven executives of the companies were interviewed; they are responsible for the production programming and for the demand analysis. Many convergent points were found between literature and the business practice, mainly concerning the fundamentals of absorptive capacity in a bullwhip effect situation, as well as among the different dimensions of absorptive capacity per se. The main contribution of the research is to integrate theoretical orientations and practical actions developed by the companies under the bullwhip effect, which are related to the absorptive capacity, highlighting to the human factors, which provides a reference more comprehensive to examine these processes. In a managerial level, subsidies are offered to the managers in the improvement of the absorption techniques of the knowledge in oscillating demand situations, making their forecasts and the production more efficient.