Cyclical component of aggregate net inventory investment in Czech republic between I.quarter 1996 and IV.quarter 2010 can be described by Production smoothing model, which says, that it is more advantageous for firms to absorb shocks of their product demand into inventories than to adjust their production permanently. This statement stands on a discovery, that cyclical component of net inventory investment is negativelly corralated with cyclical component of final sales and at the same time variability of cyclical component of final sales is higher than cyclical component of production (GDP). Although it is not possible to expect that every firm in the economy will behave according to this model, it seems, with respect to the analysis, that the cost of adjustment is one of the most important factors considered by firms within their optimalization problem.

We develop an extension to the tactical planning model (TPM) for a job shop by the third author. The TPM is a discrete-time model in which all transitions occur at the start of each time period. The time period must be defined appropriately in order for the model to be meaningful. Each period must be short enough so that a job is unlikely to travel through more than one station in one period. At the same time, the time period needs to be long enough to justify the assumptions of continuous workflow and Markovian job movements. We build an extension to the TPM that overcomes this restriction of period sizing by permitting production control over shorter time intervals. We achieve this by deriving a continuous-time linear control rule for a single station. We then determine the first two moments of the production level and queue length for the workstation. / Singapore-MIT Alliance (SMA)

中國經濟崛起後，台灣製造業者面臨比以往更激烈的競爭，急需提升自身能力，為了能有效對抗複雜、變化快速的環境，企業應從既有的競爭優勢建立和延伸，而台灣的經濟自由以及完善的製造業產能，是製造業競爭力提升的關鍵。在產能規劃時容易因為客戶影響而產生產能平滑化議題，其中以季節性產品製造商為最，且現今產品生命週期縮短及客戶喜好改變快速，導致市場不確定性提高，企業的產能運用越來越容易受客戶需求之影響，因此了解既有客戶資訊並將其納入產能平滑化策略之考量因素，是現今台灣季節性產品製造商發展優勢的重要議題。然而目前客戶分析之應用大多在銷售領域，結合產能規劃策略的研究及個案都相當不足，若能建立兩者結合之研究分析及個案討論，會更有助於未來提升台灣製造業競爭力之研究，因此本研究探討客戶分析對產能平滑化策略之影響。 本研究利用個案研究法分析世界第四大冷氣壓縮機製造商－瑞智精密公司，探討其如何在2011年至2014年期間將客戶分析導入產能規劃策略，並透過內部銷售數據、瑞智專業顧問訪談以及第三機構之研究/學術資料三個資料來源進行三角檢定，評估其在淡季時是否有助增加銷售量；旺季時是否可以增加產量或是發展其他產能分配策略。 本研究以實務資料驗證結合客戶分析之產能平滑化策略是否具備實質效益，研究發現導入客戶分析之產能平滑化策略確實縮小了淡旺季差異，也可發展出客戶評價機制方案進行旺季產能分配策略，而將客戶分析和客戶評價機制導入產能規劃步驟，可以讓客戶資訊從銷售部門流通至生產部門，化解兩者之間目標不同的衝突，使企業內部能更有效率地溝通合作，迅速反應客戶需求創造競爭力。 / After the rising of economy in China, the manufacturers in Taiwan are facing fierce horizontal competition. In order to secure their leading position and competitiveness in the market, Taiwanese manufacturers have to enhance and develop their current competitive advantages to further respond to the complicated and volatile economic environment quickly. Priority should be given to enhance the capacity planning as the economic freedom and sufficient manufacturing capacity are two main factors making the manufacturers to be competitive and successful in Taiwan. However, the capacity planning is easily influenced by the customers, which caused an issue called “Production Smoothing”. The problem is obvious and complicated for those seasonal product manufacturers. Moreover, the shorter product lifecycle and rapidly changing customer preferences contribute to the uncertainty in the market. As a result, the capacity planning is now more susceptible to be affected by customers’ needs. That is why it is very critical for the manufacturers to understand their customers’ needs and further to consider the needs in their company’s capacity plans. However, the current case study of customer analysis usually focuses on the field of marketing instead of on the capacity planning. It would be great if we could combine the capacity planning and marketing to the case discussion and analysis, further to help develop the research on the competitiveness of Taiwanese manufacturers. Therefore, the object of this article is to analyze how the customer analysis can bring an impact to the company’s capacity smoothing strategy. This case study is to analyze Rechi Precision Company, the world's fourth largest air conditioner compressor manufacturers, discussing how they take customer analysis into consideration when they develop the capacity strategy from 2011 to 2014. By analyzing internal sales data, interviewing with the internal consultants in Rechi, and referring research from the third institutions, we access whether the combination of customer analysis and capacity planning could help increase the sales during the low season and increase the capacity or develop other capacity allocation strategy during the peak season. According to the research results, the combination can decrease sales difference between the peak season and the low season. It can also help develop customer evaluation mechanism to determine capacity allocation. In addition, in order to respond to customers’ needs quickly, the manufacturers should integrate customer analysis and customer evaluation mechanism into capacity planning steps, which can soften the conflicts between the sales and production department. All of these efforts could make the whole company communicate and cooperate with each other more efficient.

This paper constructs a model of a supply chain to examine how demand volatility is passed upstream through the chain. In particular, we seek to determine how likely it is that the chain experiences a bullwhip effect, where the variance of the upstream firm’s production exceeds the variance of the downstream firm’s sales. We show that the bullwhip effect is more likely to occur and is greater in size in supply chains in which inventory control is centralized rather than decentralized, that is, exercised by the downstream firm.

This paper constructs a model of a supply chain to examine how demand volatility is passed upstream through the chain. In particular, we seek to determine how likely it is that the chain experiences a bullwhip effect, where the variance of the upstream firm’s production exceeds the variance of the downstream firm’s sales. We show that the bullwhip effect is more likely to occur and is greater in size in supply chains in which inventory control is centralized rather than decentralized, that is, exercised by the downstream firm.