Cette thèse de doctorat est consacrée à la modélisation statistique de l'impact des environnements académiques sur les croyances et la réussite des élèves au Chili. Nous contribuons au domaine de l'efficacité éducative avec une discussion statistique et deux études empiriques. La discussion statique questionne la façon de combiner les modèles multiniveaux avec des méthodes pour le biais de sélection et pour les données manquantes. Cette discussion statistique sera utilisée pour prendre des décisions méthodologiques dans les études empiriques. La première étude empirique consiste en une évaluation d'intervention de l'impact des cours de sciences sur les croyances des étudiants. La deuxième étude empirique concerne l'effet des écoles sur les trajectoires des scores de mathématiques et de lecture des élèves. Dans la partie statistique, nous avons décrit et analysé les méthodes d'ajustement linéaire et d'appariement des scores de propension pour modéliser le biais de sélection. En ce qui concerne les problèmes de données manquantes, nous avons analysé la méthode d'imputation multiple. Chacune de ces méthodes est compatible avec les modèles multi-niveaux. En revanche, l'utilisation combinée de ces méthodes pour des données hiérarchiques n'est pas résolu. Nous présentons alors une discussion statistique qui analyse et classe des stratégies pour combiner ces méthodes.La première étude empirique concerne l'influence des disciplines scientifiques qui s'intéressent à des objets vivants et non-vivants sur les croyances épistémiques et le sentiment d'auto-efficacité des étudiants de secondaire. Nous avons comparé, pour ces croyances, les étudiants qui ont suivi des cours de sciences à un groupe contrôle sur deux temps de mesure, à la fin des cours et 4 mois après. Nous avons constaté un effet positif du travail en laboratoire et des disciplines qui s'intéressent à des objets vivants (en contrôlant les variables confondues). Cette étude met en lumière des différences entre les disciplines qui s'intéressent à des objets vivant et des objets non-vivant qui devront être explorées.La deuxième étude empirique concerne l'effet des écoles sur les trajectoires des scores en mathématiques et en lecture des élèves. Le premier objectif est de décrire les caractéristiques des trajectoires et la variance expliquée par les écoles primaires et secondaires. Le deuxième objectif est de mesurer l'effet du type d'école, publique ou voucher (privée avec un financement de l'état), sur les trajectoires. Nous avons utilisé une base de données nationale longitudinale qui comprenait des mesures pour les mêmes élèves en 4ème, 8ème et 10ème années. Des modèles de croissance multiniveaux ont été utilisés pour modéliser les trajectoires. Nos résultats montrent que les écoles secondaires et primaires ont un effet sur les interceptes et les pentes des trajectoires. Par ailleurs, nous avons constaté un effet négatif de l'école publique, qui est devenu non significatif lorsque nous avons contrôlé la composition socio-économique de l'école et ses pratiques de sélection. Ces résultats illustrent la stratification entre le système public et le système voucher ainsi que la nécessité de questionner l'efficacité des écoles pour chaque système. / This PhD thesis is dedicated to the statistical modeling of the impact of academic environments on student’s beliefs and achievement in Chile. We contribute to the field of educational effectiveness with a statistical discussion regarding how to combine multilevel models with methods for selection bias and missing data and two empirical studies. The statistical discussion was used to take methodological decisions in the empirical studies. The first empirical study evaluates the impact of science courses on students’ beliefs. The second empirical study is about school effects on students’ trajectories in mathematics and reading scores. In the statistical part, we analyze linear adjustment and propensity score matching to address selection bias. Regarding the missing data problem, we considered multiple imputation techniques. Each of these methods is compatible with multilevel models. However, the problem of addressing selection bias and missing data simultaneously with hierarchical data is not resolved. We present a statistical discussion that classifies and analyzes strategies to combine the methods. The first empirical study regards the influence of Life and Non-life science courses in secondary students’ epistemic and self-efficacy beliefs related to sciences. We compared students that took summer science courses with a control group in a post and follow-up beliefs questionnaire. We found positive effects of Life courses and courses with laboratory work, controlling for confounding variables. The results show differences between Life and Non-life scientific disciplines that should be explored. The second empirical study concerns school effects on trajectories of Chilean students. It has two aims. The first aim is to describe the characteristics of the trajectories in mathematics and reading scores and the variation explained by primary and secondary schools. The second aim is to measure the effect of public schools in comparison with voucher schools on students’ trajectories in mathematics and reading scores. We used a longitudinal national database which included measures for the same students at 4th, 8th and 10th grade. Multilevel growth models were used to model the trajectories. We found effects of secondary and primary schools on intercepts and slopes. In addition, we found negative effects from public education, which became not significant after controlling for school’ socioeconomic composition and selection practices. The results illustrate the stratification between the public system and voucher system and the need to study inside each system which schools are more efficient.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-07-04T20:00:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 igorvieiraprocopio.pdf: 1465865 bytes, checksum: 11447605d270b9e74680e8c245e7a913 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-07-13T16:23:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 igorvieiraprocopio.pdf: 1465865 bytes, checksum: 11447605d270b9e74680e8c245e7a913 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-13T16:23:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 igorvieiraprocopio.pdf: 1465865 bytes, checksum: 11447605d270b9e74680e8c245e7a913 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-02-16 / CNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / O objetivo desta dissertação é investigar os principais determinantes da desigualdade educacional brasileira, tendo em vista a relação entre nível educacional e sucesso individual no mercado de trabalho e em outros aspectos socioeconômicos. Utiliza-se um banco de dados proveniente do Projeto GERES – Geração Escolar 2005– onde uma amostra de crianças foi acompanhada durante os quatro primeiros anos do ensino fundamental. Partindo da Teoria do Ciclo de Vida da Formação de Habilidades (Cunha e Heckman, 2007) analisa-se o papel da escola e da pré-escola no nível de proficiência das crianças. Paralelamente, também é investigada a relação entre origem social e nível de proficiência, sob a ótica da Teoria de Igualdade de Oportunidades (Roemer, 1998). A dissertação consiste em dois ensaios organizados sob a forma de capítulos, além de um capítulo introdutório e de um capítulo de conclusão. O primeiro ensaio investiga o papel da escola no processo de geração/redução das desigualdades de habilidades entre os indivíduos, com base na hipótese de que a desigualdade de habilidades em que as crianças iniciam o ensino fundamental limita o papel da escola na formação de habilidades. Especificamente, o primeiro estudo objetiva (i) medir a evolução da desigualdade e do efeito das escolas sobre as oportunidades na formação de habilidades e (ii) encontrar evidências empíricas para o Brasil do processo de dinâmica do aprendizado. O primeiro ponto é realizado comparando a evolução do aprendizado para grupos com características socioeconômicas distintas e através da decomposição da desigualdade de proficiência com a utilização do índice de Theil-T. Já no segundo ponto, utilizam-se técnicas de painel dinâmico para as estimações. Os resultados encontrados indicam uma relação entre nível de habilidades e origem socioeconômica. Além disso, há evidências de um efeito dinâmico da aprendizagem, dado o impacto do nível de habilidades de períodos anteriores sobre o desempenho presente. O segundo ensaio estima o efeito da pré-escola sobre o nível de proficiência de alunos do primeiro ciclo do ensino fundamental. O efeito da pré-escola foi estimado através de uma função de produção educacional considerando o processo dinâmico de aprendizado, conforme Cunha e Heckman (2007) e Todd e Wolpin (2003). Os resultados encontrados indicam o efeito cumulativo dos insumos e a presença de heterogeneidade individual. Para Matemática o efeito direto encontrado foi positivo e significativo. Já para português, os coeficientes de pré-escola apresentaram resultados não significativos, indicando que não há efeito direto sobre as habilidades em português. O efeito indireto, manifestado através da proficiência inicial, foi positivo e crescente ao longo dos anos para Matemática. Por outro lado, os estudantes com maiores habilidades em linguagem no início do ensino fundamental aumentam suas diferenças comparativamente aos menos habilidosos, mas esse efeito se inverte ao longo dos anos, indicando que a desigualdade de habilidades em Português pode ser reduzida durante o período escolar. Considerando os resultados dos dois ensaios, conclui-se que parte da desigualdade educacional brasileira é em função da diferença dos insumos escolares recebidos pelas crianças. No entanto, as habilidades com que as crianças iniciam o período escolar limitam o papel da escola em reduzir as desigualdades de habilidades, sendo, portanto, necessários investimentos na primeira infância, como, por exemplo, uma política de ampliação das matrículas na pré-escola. / The aim of this thesis is to investigate the most important determinants of the Brazilian education inequality, due to the relationship of educational attainment and individual social and economic success. The data set used comes from the GERES Project – Educational Generation 2005 – in which a sample of children was tracked during the first four years of elementary school. Following the Theory of the Life Cycle of Skills Formation (Cunha and Heckman, 2007) this study analyzes the role of school and preschool in the children’s proficiency achievement. This study also investigates the relationship among social origin and children’s proficiency achievement, based on the Theory of Equality of Opportunity (Roemer, 1998). This thesis is composed by two independent essays which are organized as chapters, besides an introductory chapter and a chapter of conclusion. The first essay investigates the schools’ role in the generation/ reduction of inequalities of students’ skills. The central assumption is that the initial level of skills inequality limits the effects of schools’ intervention in skills formation. Specifically, this study intends to (i) measure the evolution of inequality and the effect of schools on the opportunities in skills formation and (ii) find empirical evidence for Brazil' dynamic process of learning. The first goal is performed by comparing the evolution of learning for groups with different socioeconomic characteristics and by the decomposition of inequality of proficiency using the Theil-T index-, while the second point applies techniques of dynamic panel, based on the model of technology of skill formation (Cunha and Heckman, 2007). The results indicate a positive relationship between skill level and socioeconomic background. They also show evidence of the dynamic effects of learning, highlighting the role of previous skill level. These findings shed some light on the limited role of the regular schooling reducing inequalities of skills and the importance of investments in early childhood education. The second essay estimates the preschool effect on the child’s proficiency level of students from the first four years of elementary school. Following Cunha & Heckman (2007) and Todd & Wolpin (2003), the preschool effect is estimated through an educational production function that incorporates a dynamic process of learning. The empirical analysis shows evidence of cumulative effect of inputs and the presence of individual heterogeneity. In the case of Mathematics the direct effect of preschool on child’s proficiency was positive and significant, while in Portuguese, there is no direct effect. Furthermore, the indirect effect shown by the coefficient of initial proficiency is positive and increases over the years for Math. On the other hand, the students with higher skills in language at the beginning of elementary school expand their differences in relation to less skilled students, but this effect inverts over the years, indicating that the inequality of skills in Portuguese can be reduced during the scholar period. Finally, the overall results point that the educational inequality is partially explained by the difference in the school resources. However, the initial level of children’s skills limits the role of schools in reducing the inequality of abilities. Therefore, investing in the young children - like an increasing in preschool attendance - can contribute to reduce the educational inequality.