Cette thèse de doctorat est consacrée à la modélisation statistique de l'impact des environnements académiques sur les croyances et la réussite des élèves au Chili. Nous contribuons au domaine de l'efficacité éducative avec une discussion statistique et deux études empiriques. La discussion statique questionne la façon de combiner les modèles multiniveaux avec des méthodes pour le biais de sélection et pour les données manquantes. Cette discussion statistique sera utilisée pour prendre des décisions méthodologiques dans les études empiriques. La première étude empirique consiste en une évaluation d'intervention de l'impact des cours de sciences sur les croyances des étudiants. La deuxième étude empirique concerne l'effet des écoles sur les trajectoires des scores de mathématiques et de lecture des élèves. Dans la partie statistique, nous avons décrit et analysé les méthodes d'ajustement linéaire et d'appariement des scores de propension pour modéliser le biais de sélection. En ce qui concerne les problèmes de données manquantes, nous avons analysé la méthode d'imputation multiple. Chacune de ces méthodes est compatible avec les modèles multi-niveaux. En revanche, l'utilisation combinée de ces méthodes pour des données hiérarchiques n'est pas résolu. Nous présentons alors une discussion statistique qui analyse et classe des stratégies pour combiner ces méthodes.La première étude empirique concerne l'influence des disciplines scientifiques qui s'intéressent à des objets vivants et non-vivants sur les croyances épistémiques et le sentiment d'auto-efficacité des étudiants de secondaire. Nous avons comparé, pour ces croyances, les étudiants qui ont suivi des cours de sciences à un groupe contrôle sur deux temps de mesure, à la fin des cours et 4 mois après. Nous avons constaté un effet positif du travail en laboratoire et des disciplines qui s'intéressent à des objets vivants (en contrôlant les variables confondues). Cette étude met en lumière des différences entre les disciplines qui s'intéressent à des objets vivant et des objets non-vivant qui devront être explorées.La deuxième étude empirique concerne l'effet des écoles sur les trajectoires des scores en mathématiques et en lecture des élèves. Le premier objectif est de décrire les caractéristiques des trajectoires et la variance expliquée par les écoles primaires et secondaires. Le deuxième objectif est de mesurer l'effet du type d'école, publique ou voucher (privée avec un financement de l'état), sur les trajectoires. Nous avons utilisé une base de données nationale longitudinale qui comprenait des mesures pour les mêmes élèves en 4ème, 8ème et 10ème années. Des modèles de croissance multiniveaux ont été utilisés pour modéliser les trajectoires. Nos résultats montrent que les écoles secondaires et primaires ont un effet sur les interceptes et les pentes des trajectoires. Par ailleurs, nous avons constaté un effet négatif de l'école publique, qui est devenu non significatif lorsque nous avons contrôlé la composition socio-économique de l'école et ses pratiques de sélection. Ces résultats illustrent la stratification entre le système public et le système voucher ainsi que la nécessité de questionner l'efficacité des écoles pour chaque système. / This PhD thesis is dedicated to the statistical modeling of the impact of academic environments on student’s beliefs and achievement in Chile. We contribute to the field of educational effectiveness with a statistical discussion regarding how to combine multilevel models with methods for selection bias and missing data and two empirical studies. The statistical discussion was used to take methodological decisions in the empirical studies. The first empirical study evaluates the impact of science courses on students’ beliefs. The second empirical study is about school effects on students’ trajectories in mathematics and reading scores. In the statistical part, we analyze linear adjustment and propensity score matching to address selection bias. Regarding the missing data problem, we considered multiple imputation techniques. Each of these methods is compatible with multilevel models. However, the problem of addressing selection bias and missing data simultaneously with hierarchical data is not resolved. We present a statistical discussion that classifies and analyzes strategies to combine the methods. The first empirical study regards the influence of Life and Non-life science courses in secondary students’ epistemic and self-efficacy beliefs related to sciences. We compared students that took summer science courses with a control group in a post and follow-up beliefs questionnaire. We found positive effects of Life courses and courses with laboratory work, controlling for confounding variables. The results show differences between Life and Non-life scientific disciplines that should be explored. The second empirical study concerns school effects on trajectories of Chilean students. It has two aims. The first aim is to describe the characteristics of the trajectories in mathematics and reading scores and the variation explained by primary and secondary schools. The second aim is to measure the effect of public schools in comparison with voucher schools on students’ trajectories in mathematics and reading scores. We used a longitudinal national database which included measures for the same students at 4th, 8th and 10th grade. Multilevel growth models were used to model the trajectories. We found effects of secondary and primary schools on intercepts and slopes. In addition, we found negative effects from public education, which became not significant after controlling for school’ socioeconomic composition and selection practices. The results illustrate the stratification between the public system and voucher system and the need to study inside each system which schools are more efficient.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-27T16:33:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael dos Santos Borges.pdf: 679603 bytes, checksum: 4d382805637bddece9a144a41aa91639 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-04-23 / Secretaria da Educação do Estado de São Paulo / In this research we investigate trajectories of students who present decline in performance from the early years (1st to 4th grades) to the final years (5th to 8th grades) in Primary School. We point out through the educational statistics that the final grades (2nd Cycle, as called in Brazil) are seen as a moment of impediment in the Brazilian school process. We consider that the São Paulo State schools which offer the final grades of Primary School have been indefinite since the structural reforms in the 1990s, specially with the Continuous Progression and the Reorganization of School Physical Structure and, more intensely in the final grades of Primary School, when students are teenagers or pre-teenagers. With Dubet s theoretical support, mainly concerning the school experience due to multiplied inequalities , as well as with the aid of constructed and tested instruments, the data collection was carried through from 2006 to 2007 by means of the analysis of students registers, field observation, interviews with 15 students and depositions of 05 specialists from the technical teams of two public schools one of them located in downtown neighborhood and the other one located in the suburbs of the city of Osasco-SP. The results partially corroborate the idea of the connection between the increase of school failure during the final grades of Primary School and the failure in the early grades. Besides, the results reaffirm the idea of the final grades of Primary School as a moment of narrowing the school trajectories, partially due to objective questions related to the educational politics for this school moment, due to the organization and structure of the schools and, partially, derived from subjective situations related to the students, who live a very confusing moment of their adolescence / A pesquisa investiga trajetórias de alunos que apresentam declínio de desempenho do Ciclo I para o Ciclo II do Ensino Fundamental. Aponta através das estatísticas educacionais o Ciclo II como um momento de entrave na escolarização brasileira. Considera que as escolas da Rede Estadual Paulista de Ensino Fundamental de Ciclo II sofrem indefinição desde as reformas estruturais da década de 1990, em especial, com a Progressão Continuada e a Reorganização da Rede Física Escolar e, mais intensamente, no Ciclo II, quando os alunos são adolescentes ou pré-adolescentes. Com o apoio teórico de Dubet, em especial no que diz respeito à experiência escolar em face de desigualdades multiplicadas , bem como com o auxílio de instrumentos construídos e testados, a coleta dos dados foi realizada no período de 2006-2007, por meio de análise de prontuários, observação de campo, entrevistas com 15 alunos e depoimentos de 05 especialistas das equipes técnicas de duas escolas públicas uma localizada em bairro central e outra, localizada em bairro de periferia da cidade de Osasco-SP. Os resultados confirmam, em parte, a idéia de que o aumento do fracasso escolar durante o Ciclo II deve-se ao insucesso já manifestado no Ciclo I, bem como reiteram a idéia do Ciclo II, como um momento de afunilamento de trajetórias escolares, em parte decorrente de questões objetivas relativas à política educacional para essa faixa da escolaridade, à organização e infra-estrutura das escolas e, em parte, em decorrência de situações subjetivas relativas aos alunos, os quais vivem o momento conturbado da adolescência