Thesis (doctoral)--Universität Bremen, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. [153]-161).

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität Bremen, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references.

Basal melting of ice shelves is causing accelerating mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, yet the oceanographic processes which drive this are rarely observed. This thesis uses new observations from phase sensitive radar and moored oceanographic instruments to describe the processes which drive rapid basal melting of the north-western Ross Ice Shelf. Oceanographic conditions at the mooring site are strongly influenced by the neighbouring Ross Sea Polynya. High Salinity Shelf Water fills the lower water column continuously, but during summer a southward flow ventilates the cavity bringing Antarctic Surface Water (AASW) to the site. Tides account for half of the flow speed variance, and low frequency variability is influenced by local winds, and eddies associated with sea ice production in the polynya. Four years of basal melt rate observations show a mean melt rate of 1.8 m y$^{-1}$ at the mooring site and a strong seasonal cycle driven principally by water temperature variations. Radar observations show that melt rates vary rapidly and continuously in response to flow speed variability, and rapid melting occurs only when flow speeds are high. Radar observations of melt rates from 78 sites on the Ross and McMurdo ice shelves show an area-averaged annual-mean basal melt rate of 1.35 m y$^{-1}$, implying a net basal mass loss of 9.6 Gt y$^{-1}$ from the region. Melt rates are highest near the ice front where annual-mean and short-term summer rates reached 7.7 m y$^{-1}$ and 53 m y$^{-1}$, respectively. The seasonal and spatial variations in melt rate are consistent with melting driven by the summer inflow of AASW. Observations of boundary layer water temperature, flow speed and melt rates indicate that melt rates scale linearly with current speed, but sub-linearly with temperature in the outer boundary layer, possibly due to the stabilising effects of melt water input. Existing melt rate parameterisations which account for flow speed can be tuned to match the observations when thermal driving is low, but overestimate melt rates at higher temperatures, implying the need for further refinements to the models.

Esta dissertação revisa as mudanças ambientais que ocorreram no Ártico ao longo das últimas décadas e analisa as suas consequências geopolíticas. O interesse na região por parte das nações árticas (Canadá, Dinamarca - Groenlândia, EUA, Finlândia, Islândia, Noruega, Rússia e Suécia) aumentou, principalmente devido ao volume de hidrocarbonetos disponível na região, estimado em 13% do petróleo e 30% do gás natural ainda não descobertos. Durante os últimos 50 anos, o Ártico mostrou a mais rápida tendência de aquecimento no mundo, duas vezes mais que a média mundial, isso tem causado rápidas mudanças ambientais, como a redução do volume das geleiras, o que contribuiu para o aumento do nível médio dos mares; o degelo do permafrost, que libera grandes quantidades de CO2 e CH4 na atmosfera, intensificando o efeito estufa; a migração da vegetação em direção ao Norte, alterando a disponibilidade de alimentos e os padrões de migração dos animais; o aumento da temperatura da superfície do mar, o que pode causar a migração de cardumes de peixes para áreas mais frias. No entanto, a mudança mais rápida naquele ambiente, e a que mais chama a atenção, é a redução da área coberta por gelo marinho no verão. Essa redução favorece a exploração de recursos naturais e também abre o Oceano Ártico à navegação no verão (ou seja, a abertura das passagens do Nordeste e do Noroeste). Os países do Ártico desenvolveram estratégias para lidar com novos desafios decorrentes dessas mudanças, todos se comprometeram a trabalhar pela paz e cooperação, mas, na verdade, é evidente um aumento em exercícios militares na região para exercer a soberania regional. Os países com uma costa no Oceano Ártico (Canadá, Dinamarca, EUA, Noruega e Rússia) planejam expandir suas ZEEs (Zonas Económicas Exclusivas) e algumas reivindicações territoriais se sobrepõem, o que pode ser um novo foco de conflito. Além disso, existe um interesse emergente de nações não-árticas (por exemplo, China, Índia e Singapura) que desejam utilizar as novas rotas marítimas e também participar em consórcios para exploração de recursos naturais. O cenário geopolítico é ainda incerto, Canadá e os EUA ainda não chegaram a um acordo sobre a soberania da Passagem do Noroeste, consideradas águas internacionais por este último, e só a Noruega e a Rússia chegaram a um acordo diplomático sobre suas fronteiras marítimas. Considerando que o Ártico está passando por essas rápidas mudanças ambientais e geopolíticas, é aconselhável que o Brasil atue na região, pelo menos para observar os cenários resultantes de tais modificações. Como uma das primeiras ações, sugere-se a assinatura do Tratado de Svalbard, o que daria ao país o acesso a este arquipélago ártico, tanto para a realização de pesquisa científica como para a possível exploração de recursos naturais. / This dissertation reviews the Arctic environmental changes in recent decades and examines their geopolitical consequences. The interest in the region by the Arctic nations (Canada, Denmark - Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and USA) have increased, mainly due to the volume of hydrocarbons available in the region, estimated at 13% of the oil and 30% of the natural gas yet to be discovered. For the last 50 years, the Arctic has shown the fastest warming trend in the world, twice as much as the worldwide mean, this has caused rapid environmental changes such as the shrinkage of glaciers, which contributed to the mean sea level rise; the permafrost thaw, which releases large amounts of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere, intensifying the greenhouse effect; the migration of the vegetation towards the North, changing food availability and the migration patterns of animals; the increase of the ocean surface temperature, which may cause the migration of fish shoals to colder areas. However, the most rapid environmental change, which draws the most attention, is the reduction of the sea ice cover area in the summer. Such reduction favours the exploitation of natural resources in the ocean and also opens the Arctic Ocean to navigation in the summer (i.e., opening of the Northeast and the Northwest passages). The Arctic countries have developed strategies to deal with the new challenges arising from these changes, all have promised to work for peace and cooperation, but, in fact, it is apparent an increase in military exercises in the region to exercise regional sovereignty. Countries with an Arctic Ocean coast (Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and USA) plan to expand their EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zones) and some claims overlap, which can be a new focus of conflict. Also, there is an emergent interest of non-Arctic nations (e.g., China, India and Singapore) that want to use the new sea routes and also participate in consortia for natural resources exploitation. The geopolitical scenario is still uncertain, Canada and the US have not yet reached an agreement on the sovereignty of the Northwest Passage, considered international waters by the latter, and only Norway and Russia reached a diplomatic agreement on their maritime boundaries. Considering that the Arctic is undergoing these rapid environmental and geopolitical changes, it is advisable that Brazil acts in the region, at least to observe the scenarios resulting from such modifications. As one of the first actions, it is suggested the signing of the Svalbard Treaty, which would give to the country access to this Arctic archipelago, both for conducting scientific research as for possible exploitation of natural resources.

Dans cette thèse, deux approches de caractérisation d'un comportement mécanique sont présentées, l'une sur la banquise Arctique, l'autre sur les milieux granulaires. Premièrement, une analyse de type mécanique des milieux continus est réalisée sur la banquise de manière à extraire la physique qui, au premier ordre, explique l'augmentation récente des vitesses de dérive et de déformation. Une méthode originale pour accéder aux propriétés mécaniques de la couverture de glace aux grandes échelles de temps et d'espace, c'est à dire sur tout le bassin Arctique et au cours de ces 40 dernières années, est proposée en quantifiant l'amplitude de la composante inertielle du mouvement des bouées enchâssées dans la glace. Le point fort de cette méthode réside dans le fait qu'elle apporte des informations sur la friction moyenne de la couverture de glace qui, jusqu'à maintenant, n'étaient pas disponible à ces échelles spatio-temporelles. A partir d'un modèle simple, nous montrons qu'un affaiblissement mécanique de la banquise, se traduisant par des changements dans le degré de fracturation de la couverture de glace, intervient au premier ordre dans la cinématique et la dynamique des glaces de mer. Cette observation souligne la nécessité de prendre en compte cette composante de manière appropriée dans les modèles ainsi que de développer des outils spécifiques pour accéder à cette quantité à l'échelle locale. Deuxièmement, une analyse de type mécanique statistique est adoptée dans l'étude numérique et expérimentale des milieux granulaires frottants sous compression. La quantification des hétérogénéités associées aux champs de contrainte et de déformation ainsi que leur lien avec le comportement mécanique macroscopique de ce matériau est étudiée. Aux petites échelles de temps, de fortes concentrations de contrainte et de déformation sont mises en évidence. De plus, des propriétés multi-échelles spécifiques caractérisent ces champs à l'instabilité macroscopique. Ainsi, à ce point d'instabilité, ces champs de déformation observés aux petites échelles de temps présentent des propriétés très différentes de celles présentées par la bande de cisaillement, habituellement caractérisée aux grandes échelles de temps. Le lien entre ces deux comportements caractéristiques reste à élucider. / Two approaches to study the mechanical behaviour of Arctic sea ice in one hand, and of granular media on the other hand, are presented in this thesis. First, a continuum mechanics analysis is conducted on sea ice in order to extract the relevant physics that, to the first order, explains the observed recent acceleration of sea ice drift and deformation. An original method to determine the mechanical properties of the sea ice cover at large time and spatial scales, i.e. over the whole Arctic basin and over 40 years of record, is proposed by quantifying the amplitude of inertial motion of ice drifters. This method allows to estimate an average ice cover friction, that is currently not accessible through other means at those large spatio-temporal scales. We show that a genuine mechanical weakening of the Arctic sea ice, associated to changes in the degree of fragmentation of the ice cover, comes into play to explain the observed changes in terms of sea ice kinematics and dynamics. This underlines the necessity to take into account this component in modelling studies, as well as to develop specific tools to measure an internal friction at local scales. Second, a statistical mechanics analysis is adopted in order to characterize the mechanical heterogeneities associated to the macroscopic behaviour of frictional granular materials submit- ted to compressive loading. From numerical modeling and experimental studies, quantitative estimates of heterogeneities that develop in the shear stress and strain fields are provided. At short timescales, intense stress and strain localization is reported, associated at the macrosco- pic instability to specific multi-scale properties. Thus, at this flow instability, these strain field properties significantly differ from the shear band formation observed after the instability when considering large time scales. The connection between these two characteristic features remains to be understood.

Esta dissertação revisa as mudanças ambientais que ocorreram no Ártico ao longo das últimas décadas e analisa as suas consequências geopolíticas. O interesse na região por parte das nações árticas (Canadá, Dinamarca - Groenlândia, EUA, Finlândia, Islândia, Noruega, Rússia e Suécia) aumentou, principalmente devido ao volume de hidrocarbonetos disponível na região, estimado em 13% do petróleo e 30% do gás natural ainda não descobertos. Durante os últimos 50 anos, o Ártico mostrou a mais rápida tendência de aquecimento no mundo, duas vezes mais que a média mundial, isso tem causado rápidas mudanças ambientais, como a redução do volume das geleiras, o que contribuiu para o aumento do nível médio dos mares; o degelo do permafrost, que libera grandes quantidades de CO2 e CH4 na atmosfera, intensificando o efeito estufa; a migração da vegetação em direção ao Norte, alterando a disponibilidade de alimentos e os padrões de migração dos animais; o aumento da temperatura da superfície do mar, o que pode causar a migração de cardumes de peixes para áreas mais frias. No entanto, a mudança mais rápida naquele ambiente, e a que mais chama a atenção, é a redução da área coberta por gelo marinho no verão. Essa redução favorece a exploração de recursos naturais e também abre o Oceano Ártico à navegação no verão (ou seja, a abertura das passagens do Nordeste e do Noroeste). Os países do Ártico desenvolveram estratégias para lidar com novos desafios decorrentes dessas mudanças, todos se comprometeram a trabalhar pela paz e cooperação, mas, na verdade, é evidente um aumento em exercícios militares na região para exercer a soberania regional. Os países com uma costa no Oceano Ártico (Canadá, Dinamarca, EUA, Noruega e Rússia) planejam expandir suas ZEEs (Zonas Económicas Exclusivas) e algumas reivindicações territoriais se sobrepõem, o que pode ser um novo foco de conflito. Além disso, existe um interesse emergente de nações não-árticas (por exemplo, China, Índia e Singapura) que desejam utilizar as novas rotas marítimas e também participar em consórcios para exploração de recursos naturais. O cenário geopolítico é ainda incerto, Canadá e os EUA ainda não chegaram a um acordo sobre a soberania da Passagem do Noroeste, consideradas águas internacionais por este último, e só a Noruega e a Rússia chegaram a um acordo diplomático sobre suas fronteiras marítimas. Considerando que o Ártico está passando por essas rápidas mudanças ambientais e geopolíticas, é aconselhável que o Brasil atue na região, pelo menos para observar os cenários resultantes de tais modificações. Como uma das primeiras ações, sugere-se a assinatura do Tratado de Svalbard, o que daria ao país o acesso a este arquipélago ártico, tanto para a realização de pesquisa científica como para a possível exploração de recursos naturais. / This dissertation reviews the Arctic environmental changes in recent decades and examines their geopolitical consequences. The interest in the region by the Arctic nations (Canada, Denmark - Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and USA) have increased, mainly due to the volume of hydrocarbons available in the region, estimated at 13% of the oil and 30% of the natural gas yet to be discovered. For the last 50 years, the Arctic has shown the fastest warming trend in the world, twice as much as the worldwide mean, this has caused rapid environmental changes such as the shrinkage of glaciers, which contributed to the mean sea level rise; the permafrost thaw, which releases large amounts of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere, intensifying the greenhouse effect; the migration of the vegetation towards the North, changing food availability and the migration patterns of animals; the increase of the ocean surface temperature, which may cause the migration of fish shoals to colder areas. However, the most rapid environmental change, which draws the most attention, is the reduction of the sea ice cover area in the summer. Such reduction favours the exploitation of natural resources in the ocean and also opens the Arctic Ocean to navigation in the summer (i.e., opening of the Northeast and the Northwest passages). The Arctic countries have developed strategies to deal with the new challenges arising from these changes, all have promised to work for peace and cooperation, but, in fact, it is apparent an increase in military exercises in the region to exercise regional sovereignty. Countries with an Arctic Ocean coast (Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and USA) plan to expand their EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zones) and some claims overlap, which can be a new focus of conflict. Also, there is an emergent interest of non-Arctic nations (e.g., China, India and Singapore) that want to use the new sea routes and also participate in consortia for natural resources exploitation. The geopolitical scenario is still uncertain, Canada and the US have not yet reached an agreement on the sovereignty of the Northwest Passage, considered international waters by the latter, and only Norway and Russia reached a diplomatic agreement on their maritime boundaries. Considering that the Arctic is undergoing these rapid environmental and geopolitical changes, it is advisable that Brazil acts in the region, at least to observe the scenarios resulting from such modifications. As one of the first actions, it is suggested the signing of the Svalbard Treaty, which would give to the country access to this Arctic archipelago, both for conducting scientific research as for possible exploitation of natural resources.

Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Abstract Numerous efforts have been made in recent decades to recover the climate history of the Arctic region. The present PhD study is one of them, focusing on terrestrial sediments which were deposited in the Arctic Ocean during the Cenozoic. The Arctic Ocean, surrounded by land on all sides, is among the most important marine archives of sediments that record information of palaeoclimates, including cold climates with extensive glaciation. Evidence of ancient glaciations is generally retraced by observing widespread terrestrial ice-rafted debris (IRD) deposits on the seafloor, as large amounts of IRD are transported by icebergs during deglacial phases. However, it has been shown that sea ice also transports abundant IRD from shallow continental shelves. What is worth noticing is that glaciers and sea ice influence climate variables differently, and therefore, to model climate in past glaciations, IRD released from these factors should be differentiated. The relative proportions of glacial IRD and non-glacial IRD were determined in this study from two central Arctic Ocean expedition site recoveries: the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program’s (IODP) Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) 302 composite core recovery and the Swedish Polar Research Expedition’s Arctic Ocean 1996 (AO96) piston core 96/12-1pc. The main objective was to characterise and quantify the process- and environment-related microtextures of quartz sand grain surfaces. The data were subjected to statistical methods and a multiproxy approach, and the results were used to define the dynamics and timing of palaeoglaciations. The results indicate that the signals of glacial and non-glacial continental processes and the involvement of iceberg versus sea-ice rafting can be distinguished by microtextural and statistical analyses. Improvements in the general interpretation of late Pleistocene Eurasian ice sheet distribution and dynamics are provided: late MIS 4 (ca. 62–67 ka) reflects a deglacial phase with increased fluvial activity, whereas MIS 3 at ca. 45 ka is related to glacial advance characterised by the oscillating and calving Barents-Kara ice sheet. Based on the results of this study, the early glacial ice on the Arctic continent can be retraced back to the late Palaeocene ca. 56 Ma. / Tiivistelmä Arktisen alueen ilmastohistoriaa on pyritty selvittämään usein eri tavoin viime vuosikymmenten aikana. Tässä tutkimuksessa on keskitytty Jäämereen kerrostuneiden mantereelta peräisin olevien sedimenttien ominaisuuksiin. Jäämeri on yksi tärkeimmistä mannerten ympäröimistä merialueista jonka pohjan sedimentteihin on tallentunut tietoa menneistä ilmasto-oloista, kuten laajoista jäätiköitymisistä. Jään kuljettaman sedimenttiaineksen runsas esiintyminen merenpohjan kerrostumissa on yleisesti tulkittu todisteeksi menneistä jäätiköitymisistä, sillä jäävuorikuljetus on runsainta mannerjäätikön sulamisvaiheessa. Myös merijää voi kuljettaa runsaasti sedimenttiainesta joka on peräisin matalalta mannerjalustavyöhykkeeltä. Jäätiköiden ja merijään vaikutus ilmastomuuttujiin on hyvin erilainen ja siksi on tärkeää selvittää niiden osallisuus eri ilmastovaiheissa. Tässä tutkimuksessa määritettiin jäävuorien ja merijään kuljettaman sedimenttiaineksen suhteelliset osuudet kahdesta keskeisen Jäämeren tutkimusmatkan kaira-aineistosta: Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) -ohjelman Arctic Coring Expedition 302 (ACEX) -tutkimusmatkan yhdistetystä kaira-aineistosta ja Swedish Polar Research Expedition Arctic Ocean 1996 (AO96) -tutkimusmatkan kaira-aineistosta 96/12-1pc. Tärkein tavoite oli kuvata ja laskennallisesti määrittää kvartsihiekkarakeiden pintamikrotekstuurit, jotka ovat syntyneet erilaisissa prosesseissa ja ympäristöissä. Aineistoa tarkasteltiin tilastollisin- ja moniaineistomenetelmin, ja tuloksia käytettiin jäätiköiden dynamiikan ja ajoituksen määrittämiseen. Tämän tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta että jäätikköön ja ei-jäätikköön liittyvät mantereiset prosessesit, sekä jäävuori- ja merijääkuljetuksen osallisuus, voidaan erottaa mikrotekstuuri- ja tilastollisen analyysin avulla. Tutkimus tarkentaa tulkintoja myöhäis-Pleistoseenin jäätiköiden alueellisesta levinneisyydestä ja dynamiikasta: myöhäinen MIS 4 (noin 62–67 ka) oli deglasiaalivaihetta jolloin fluviaalitoiminta oli aktiivista, kun taas MIS 3 noin 45 ka liittyy jäätiköitymisvaiheeseen jolloin Barentsin-Karan jääkenttä oskilloi ja jäävuorikuljetus oli runsasta. Tutkimuksen tuloksena voidaan myös tarkentaa varhaisten Arktisten jäätiköitymisten ajankohta myöhäiseen Paleoseeniin noin 56 Ma.

Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipated future warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possible changes in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced with atmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observed sea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertime ice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations change little, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The ice thickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050, but the region could support some commercial shipping.

Declining sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic has gained significant attention with respect to the prospect of increased shipping activities along the Northwest Passage and Arctic Bridge shipping routes. Temporal trend and correlation analysis was performed on sea ice area data for total, first-year ice (FYI), and multi-year ice (MYI), and observed shipping activity within the Vessel Traffic Reporting Arctic Canada Traffic Zone (NORDREG zone) from 1990 to 2012. Relationships between declines in sea ice area and Arctic maritime activity were investigated alongside linkages to warming surface air temperatures (SAT) and an increasing melt season length. Statistically significant increases in vessel traffic were observed on monthly and annual time-scales, coincident with declines in sea ice area. Despite increasing trends, only weak correlations between the variables were identified, suggesting that other non-environmental factors have likely contributed to the observed increase in Arctic shipping activity including tourism demand, community re-supply needs, and resource exploration trends. As a first step towards quantifying spatial variability in shipping patterns, a case study was conducted using 2010 observed shipping data to reconstruct historical shipping routes using a least cost path (LCP) approach. This approach was able to successfully reconstruct vessel tracks compared to an independent data source (Automatic Identification System) to an accuracy of 10.42 km ± 0.67 km over the entire study area. A 25 km gridded product across the entire Canadian Arctic domain was produced for 2010, with this approach now providing a basis to apply this method over the entire record (since 1990) in future studies to investigate long term spatial variability and change of shipping activity across the Canadian Arctic.