Further distribution of all or part of this report is subject to the Distribution Statement appearing on the front cover. / One of the global security challenges the United States faces is disaster coupled with political instability. The U.S. Military‘s ability to rapidly respond to disasters enhances regional and global security and stability. Foreign Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (FHA/DR), increasingly a mission that relies on a significant military component, focuses on the provision of goods and services such as health care, supplies necessary for survival, and infrastructure repair, with the goal of reducing the immediate human suffering. The disaster in this project‘s scenario is catastrophic flooding that occurs in one of Africa‘s most populated and wealthiest countries that threatens the stability and development of West Africa. This project, employing a systems engineering methodology, focuses on the 60 days after the disaster and the requirements to provide this assistance in the form of goods and services. Many system-of-systems architectures were developed to investigate the effectiveness of utilizing a Seabase for the primary delivery of aid. Two simulation tools, SimKit, and STELLA, were used to model and examine these architectures with the former addressing the delivery and throughput concerns while the latter focused on the satisfaction of the population and the limitation of criminal activity. Based on the results of modeling, the team provided recommendations relative to the most effective architectures in influencing the population of this coastal area as well as accomplishing the FHA/DR mission.

A look at today's US military will see them operating much beyond the scope of protecting and defending the United States. These operations now consist of, but are not limited to humanitarian aid, disaster relief, and conflict resolution. This broad spectrum of operational environments has necessitated a transformation of the individual military services into a hybrid force that can leverage the inherent and emerging capabilities from the strengths of those under the umbrella of the Department of Defense (DOD), this concept has been coined Joint Operations. Supporting Joint Operations requires a new approach to determining a viable military logistics support system. The logistics architecture for these operations has to accommodate scale, time, varied mission objectives, and imperfect information. Compounding the problem is the human in the loop (HITL) decision maker (DM) who is a necessary component for quickly assessing and planning logistics support activities. Past outcomes are not necessarily good indicators of future results, but they can provide a reasonable starting point for planning and prediction of specific needs for future requirements. Adequately forecasting the necessary logistical support structure and commodities needed for any resource intensive environment has progressed well beyond stable demand assumptions to one in which dynamic and nonlinear environments can be captured with some degree of fidelity and accuracy. While these advances are important, a holistic approach that allows exploration of the operational environment or design space does not exist to guide the military logistician in a methodical way to support military forecasting activities. To bridge this capability gap, a method called A Technique for Logistics Architecture Selection (ATLAS) has been developed. This thesis describes and applies the ATLAS method to a notional military scenario that involves the Navy concept of Seabasing and the Marine Corps concept of Distributed Operations applied to a platoon sized element. This work uses modeling and simulation to incorporate expert opinion and knowledge of military operations, dynamic reasoning methods, and certainty analysis to create a decisions support system (DSS) that can be used to provide the DM an enhanced view of the logistics environment and variables that impact specific measures of effectiveness.

Includes supplementary material. / Sea TENTACLE is a proposed afloat platform whose primary mission is to utilize the state-of-the-art technology of unmanned vehicles to monitor and neutralize all subsurface enemy threats in the littorals. This mission can be specified further as anti-submarine warfare, mine warfare and maritime surveillance. The design philosophy of Sea TENTACLE embodies the ideal of providing a multi-mission capable sea frame extending network-centric warfare into the littorals. The design goals of the TSSE team were first to develop a platform to deploy, recover, and maintain unmanned vehicle (e.g. UUVs, USVs, UAVs) and second to enableto ship to act as an afloat network operations center for distributed assets. Allowing all units to work together seamlessly to conduct focused missions in the littorals makes the Sea TENTACLE a creitical component within the network-centric environment. The versatility of its cargo hold and modular design allows Sea TENTACLE to be outfitted dynamically to complete a veriety of secondary missions including humanitarian aid, salvage and spacial operations support. Sea TENTACLE's combat management and operations system will employ the Enterprise architecture design enabling C4ISR capabilities that will meet emerging network centric warfare needs.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / This thesis examines a 2015 Marine Expeditionary Brigade scheme of maneuver as the baseline scenario for a commercial logistics support software program called SEAWAY. Modifications to this scenario are conducted using a designed experiment in order to explore how the plan characteristics relate to eleven specified input factors. Multiple regression analysis is used to fit models to the resulting data for three different measures of performance: Total Aircraft Sorties, Total Aircraft Sortie Time and Total Aircraft Tons. The results suggest the plan performance is predicted well by a small subset of the factors and their interactions. One implication of this work is a better understanding of which factors are key determinants of the plan characteristics for variations on this specific base scenario. By using these fitted models, the number of SEAWAY runs needed to identify acceptable plans should decrease dramatically. The approach in this thesis provides a blueprint for similar analyses of other scenarios by demonstrating how information gained from models fit during an exploration phase might allow the logistician to quickly determine factor settings that yield an acceptable plan once details of an operation become available. Finally, working with the SEAWAY developers provided them with some new insights. / Lieutenant Commandeer, United States Navy