The essay consists of three chapters. In chapter 1, I find that wages in U.S. regions have been diverging instead of converging from 1975 onward. This coincides with the period of accelerating skill-biased technological change. A decomposition of the divergence rate indicates three channels underlying the divergence: (1) an ever-widening wage gap between college graduates and high school graduates, (2) an increasing within-education group wage differential across regions, and (3) a concentration of skill composition across local labor markets. I then developed an endogenous skill-biased technology adoption model in which firms invest capital more intensively in regions with higher employment share of college graduates, explaining these three channels jointly. Finally I quantitatively assess the model by separately calibrating the regional aggregate production function; the results show that the relative skilled-labor efficiency has been persistently higher in skill-abundant regions, nevertheless the countrywide skill-biased technological change, is the main force making divergence happening. Chapter 2 studies energy-saving technological change in U.S. manufacturing sector, whose intensive margin and extensive margins are identified. I find that energy and capital are mostly complementary to each other, while labor is substitutive to energy-capital composite. However, a Cobb-Douglas nesting of labor is rejected. Quantitative exercise shows that in the post-crisis period, within in industry energy-saving technological change accounts for the largest proportion of the aggregate sectoral energy efficiency promotion in the long run. In contrast, in the short run, factor adjustment combined with sectoral shift accounts for the largest proportion of energy intensity reduction. Lastly, I provide evidence that structural change has taken place around the oil crisis in 1970s, which is consistent with the existing literature. In chapter 3, I documented the increasing dispersion of skill composition across different areas in the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S. Housing Market has experienced a dramatic increase in the housing price, as well as a similarly increase in its dispersion across metropolitan areas. A set of related stylized facts are documented in this paper. First, the real wage goes similarly as real housing prices, but quantitatively different. Second, the rents and housing prices have not been going in the exactly same way, in terms of first two moments. Third, we find that local income inequality is positively correlated to the local housing price level. Based on these observations, we build a model where a dispersed skill-biased technology change can account for all the phenomena at the same time. / Ph. D.

On previous occasions in society when the labor market has changed due to new technology, there has been concern that people would lose their jobs. Over the past year, the development of various AI tools has emerged, which has affected people both in their personal lives and professional careers. By examining previous research in conjunction with interviewing individuals working as programmers, a depiction is presented of how the perception of AI looks within the specific professional role. Six semi-structured interviews were conducted, where individuals with different experiences and roles shared their perceptions of the development. The data from the interviews was analyzed and compared with the theory and previous research presented. The respondents' overall perception is positive, and they believed that AI would rather serve as an aid in their profession in the future. According to all respondents, the industry will undergo some changes, but primarily through streamlining and reducing manual work, rather than taking over their roles. Some of the respondents believed that AI could pose a threat to the programming profession, but it will take longer than ten years for that to happen.

No description available.

Among better-educated employed workers, the fraction of full-time full-year (FTFY) workers is quite high and stable over time in the U.S. Among those with low education levels, however, this fraction is much lower and considerably more volatile. These observations suggest that the composition of unobserved skills is subject to sharp movements within low-educated employed workers, while the scale of these movements is potentially much smaller within high-educated ones. The standard college premium framework accounts for the observed shifts between education categories, but it cannot account for unobserved compositional changes within education categories. This thesis uses Heckman&#039 / s two-step estimator on repeated Current Population Survey cross sections to calculate a relative supply series that corrects for unobserved compositional shifts due to selection in and out of the FTFY status. We find that the well-documented deceleration in the growth rate of relative supply of college-equivalent workers after mid-1980s becomes even more pronounced once we correct for selectivity. This casts further doubt on the relevance of the plain skill-biased technical change hypothesis. We conclude that what happens to the within-group skill composition for low-educated groups is critical for fully understanding the trends in the relative supply of college workers in the United States.

Among better-educated employed workers, the fraction of full-time full-year (FTFY) workers is quite high and stable over time in the U.S. Among those with low education levels, however, this fraction is much lower and considerably more volatile. These observations suggest that the composition of unobserved skills is subject to sharp movements within low-educated employed workers, while the scale of these movements is potentially much smaller within high-educated ones. The standard college premium framework accounts for the observed shifts between education categories, but it cannot account for unobserved compositional changes within education categories. This thesis uses Heckman&#039 / s two-step estimator on repeated Current Population Survey cross sections to calculate a relative supply series that corrects for unobserved compositional shifts due to selection in and out of the FTFY status. We find that the well-documented deceleration in the growth rate of relative supply of college-equivalent workers after mid-1980s becomes even more pronounced once we correct for selectivity. This casts further doubt on the relevance of the plain skill-biased technical change hypothesis. We conclude that what happens to the within-group skill composition for low-educated groups is critical for fully understanding the trends in the relative supply of college workers in the United States.

Negli anni ’80, paesi in via di sviluppo (DCs) e paesi meno sviluppati (PMS) hanno subito cambiamenti strutturali, muovendosi da politiche di sostituzione di importazione a strategie di liberalizzazione. Questi paesi hanno assistito ad una crescita dinamica risultata dall’aumento della produttività dovuto alla maggiore esposizione delle industrie locali alla concorrenza, dall'aumento delle importazioni tecnologiche incarnate in capitale e in beni intermedi, e ad una maggiore diffusione di conoscenze e informazioni. Questo lavoro esamina come liberalizzazione commerciale ed aggiornamento tecnologico abbiano influito sull’occupazione in paesi DCs e PMS, e studia il fenomeno del cambiamento tecnologico skill biased. Si esaminano il settore manifatturiero turco tra il 1980-2001 e quello etiope tra il 1996-2004. Questo studio, basato sul System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS), implementa un quadro dinamico di due equazioni che raffigurano tendenze occupazionali a livello enterprise per lavoratori qualificati e non qualificati. I risultati confermano l'aspettativa teorica che DCs e LDC affrontano fenomeni di skill-biased technological change e incrementano il potere d’importazione di tecnologia, aumentando il divario d’occupazione tra lavoratori qualificati e non qualificati. Tuttavia, le cause specifiche di skill-bias e la portata del loro effetto possono variare in base a diverse infrastrutture istituzionali e capacità nazionali. / In the 1980's developing countries (DCs) and least developed countries (LDCs) underwent structural changes, moving from import substitution policies to liberalization strategies. These countries witnessed a dynamic growth effect that emerges from productivity growth due to increased exposure of local industries to competition, increased technological imports embodied in capital and intermediate goods, and to the transfer of knowledge. This work looks into the employment impact of trade liberalization and technological upgrading in DCs and LDCs, and studies the phenomenon of skill biased technological change in those countries. It takes the case of the Turkish manufacturing sector for the period 1980 - 2001, and the case of the Ethiopian manufacturing sector for the period 1996 - 2004. It deploys System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS) procedure to this effect, implementing a two-equation dynamic framework that depicts enterprise-level employment trends separately for skilled and unskilled workers. The results confirm the theoretical expectation that DCs and LDCs face the phenomena of skill-biased technological change and skill-enhancing technology import, both leading to increasing the employment gap between skilled and unskilled workers. However, the specific determinants of skill bias and the size of their effect can differ due to diverse institutional infrastructures and national capabilities.

In this paper, I investigate changes in the job market composition during Sweden’s “Golden Age” between the end of WWII and the 1974 oil crisis to examine to which degree this reflects an earlier job polarization than previously thought and validates that era’s anxieties about automation. Drawing from individual income and occupational data from a representative sample of the Swedish population from the year 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 and using the Historical International Standard of Classification of Occupations (HISCO) to make the data sets comparable, I demonstrate a general decrease in the share of blue-collar professionals and a general increase in the share of white-collar professionals, as well as a transition from unskilled to semi-skilled and skilled jobs. This indicates skill-biased technological change as the underlying force in the Swedish economy at the time, refuting Gustavsson’s (2017) previous findings regarding an early Swedish job polarization as well as general claims about deskilling. Lastly, using Acemoglu’s (2017) framework for enabling and replacing technologies, I argue the degree to which the pervasiveness of enabling technologies helped shape the Swedish Golden Age has been underappreciated, carrying lessons for our current era of generation-defining technologies and contemporary discussions surrounding automation.

Les années quatre-vingt ont été particulièrement marquées par un élargissement des inégalités salariales par niveau de scolarité ou par groupe d'âge. Plusieurs facteurs interdépendants ont été évoqués pour expliquer cette tendance, à savoir les changements technologiques, la libéralisation du commerce international ainsi que des facteurs institutionnels tels que le taux de syndicalisation et le salaire minimum. Par ailleurs, les recherches empiriques montrent que les changements technologiques plus intensifs en main-d'œuvre qualifiée (Skill-Biased Technological Change) ont joué un rôle prépondérant dans cette tendance. Cette forme de changement technologique aurait entraîné une augmentation relative de la demande de la main-d'œuvre qualifiée, les qualifications étant mesurées par le niveau de scolarité et d'expérience (estimé par l'âge). Particulièrement aux États-Unis, cette augmentation de la demande relative des qualifications s'est traduite par une augmentation de la prime associée au niveau de scolarité et d'expérience. L'augmentation de ces primes est avancée comme argument de base pour justifier l'hypothèse de l'émergence d'une économie du savoir et la pénurie de la main-d'œuvre qualifiée qui en découle. Bien que le passage de l'économie canadienne vers une économie du savoir ait été bien établie, la prime à la scolarité n'a pas pour autant augmenté. Par ailleurs, l'accroissement de l'écart salarial entre les jeunes et les plus âgés a dominé les changements de la structure salariale observés durant les années quatre-vingt. La stabilité de la prime à la scolarité au Canada a engendré une divergence d'opinion quant à la manière dont le marché du travail s'est ajusté. Certains expliquent cette stabilité par l'augmentation de l'offre des qualifications qui est venue compenser l'augmentation de la demande, alors que d'autres rejettent l'hypothèse du changement technologique et favorisent l'hypothèse d'un ajustement de la demande à une offre de main-d'œuvre qualifiée plus abondante. Ces deux points de vue débouchent sur des recommandations différentes en matière d'investissement. Ceux qui défendent l'hypothèse du changement technologique plus intensif en main-d'œuvre qualifiée préconisent l'investissement dans le capital humain comme moyen de se tailler une place dans une économie basée sur le savoir. Cette position n'est pas partagée par les tenants de l'ajustement de la demande étant donné qu'ils considèrent que l'offre de la main-d'œuvre qualifiée est déjà assez abondante. Ces derniers favorisent plutôt l'investissement dans les nouvelles technologies afin de compenser la fuite des iv investissements vers les formes d'organisation du travail qui utilisent d'une façon plus intensive la main-d'œuvre qualifiée. Quant à l'attribution de l'élargissement de l'écart salarial entre les jeunes et les plus âgés au développement d'une prime à l'expérience, elle a été mise en doute par des études longitudinales. Ces dernières attribuent cette tendance à une baisse du profil par âge des revenus. Les cohortes qui sont entrées sur le marché du travail durant les années 1980 et 1990 gagnent des salaires plus faibles par rapport aux cohortes précédentes. Le débat sur la manière dont le marché du travail canadien s'est ajusté est basé sur une mesure approximative des qualifications, à savoir le niveau d'instruction et d'expérience (estimé par l'âge). La présente étude introduit une mesure multidimensionnelle des qualifications requises par les professions (l'aptitude cognitive, l'aptitude à communiquer, l'aptitude motrice fine, l'aptitude motrice brute et l'aptitude à exercer l'autorité et à gérer) afin d'analyser les changements de la prime associée à ces dernières et améliorer ainsi notre compréhension de la manière dont le marché du travail s'est ajusté. Entre 1981 et 1991, nous avons observé une augmentation de la part de l'emploi dans les professions qui exigent un niveau élevé d'aptitude cognitive, d'aptitude à exercer l'autorité à gérer, d'aptitude à communiquer et d'aptitude motrice fine. Par contre, une baisse de l'emploi a été enregistrée dans les professions qui requièrent un niveau élevé d'aptitude motrice brute. Ceci corrobore les prédictions de la thèse de requalification des changements technologiques et le passage vers une économie du savoir. Suite à cette tendance, nous avons vérifié l'hypothèse suivante : si le marché du travail s'ajuste par les quantités alors la prime associée à ces qualifications resterait constante. En utilisant une méthode d'estimation qui contrôle les caractéristiques socio-économiques et la distribution géographique des individus, nous avons montré que la prime associée aux qualifications requises par les professions est restée stable. Cette stabilité est expliquée en partie par l'augmentation de l'offre des qualifications (mesurée par le niveau de scolarité). L'augmentation de la proportion des femmes et celle des travailleurs à temps partiel dans les professions qui exigent des niveaux élevés d'aptitude cognitive, d'aptitude à exercer l'autorité et à gérer, d'aptitude à communiquer et d'aptitude motrice fine aurait contribué à la stabilité de la prime associée à ces aptitudes. Cependant, la prédominance des travailleurs syndiqués dans les professions qui requièrent un niveau élevé d'aptitude motrice brute aurait contribué au maintien de la prime associée à cette aptitude malgré la baisse de la demande qui lui est adressée. Ceci nous a amené à conclure qu'aussi bien l'augmentation de l'offre des qualifications que les facteurs institutionnels ont joué un rôle dans la stabilité des primes associées aux qualifications durant les années quatre-vingt. Contrairement à la prime associée aux différentes qualifications, la prime à l'âge est plus prononcée. Cette prime est relativement plus élevée dans les professions qui exigent un niveau élevé d'aptitude à exercer l'autorité et à gérer ainsi que dans celles qui exigent un niveau élevé d'aptitude à communiquer. De plus, c'est au sein de ces professions que la prime à l'âge a augmenté le plus. Ceci laisse croire que cette augmentation de la prime à l'âge est due à une augmentation de la prime à des aptitudes acquises avec l'expérience (aptitude à exercer l'autorité et à gérer et l'aptitude à communiquer). Or, nous avons montré que la prime associée à ces aptitudes est restée stable entre 1981 et 1991. Ceci nous a amené à favoriser l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'accroissement de l'écart salarial par groupe d'âge serait dû au fait que les jeunes, qui jouissaient d'un avantage comparatif en terme du niveau de scolarité atteint par rapport aux plus âgés, font face à des travailleurs plus âgés, aussi instruits qu'eux et ayant davantage d'expérience. Cependant, les hommes jeunes font face à une concurrence supplémentaire, à savoir l'afflux des femmes sur le marché du travail. L'augmentation du taux de participation des femmes durant les années quatre-vingt aurait contribué à l'élargissement de l'écart entre les jeunes et les plus âgés.

This dissertation tries to gain insight on the possible impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) in economic and social relationships. Can we really talk about a revolution?. It is probably too early to conclude so. In any case, the social impact of ICT seems evident: the daily life of most individuals, firms and public administrations in developed countries is nowadays linked to new technologies. Regarding their economic impact, this dissertation has investigated the role played by ICT in explaining some of the stylized facts that have characterized European economies over the last 25 years. Using Spanish data, chapter 1 shows that capital accumulation, and especially ICT introduction over the last 20 years, has led firms to internally reorganize themselves. Furthermore, the implemented organizational changes have been skill-biased and have, thus, stimulated the demand for high-skilled workers. Based on these results, in chapter 2 an inter-temporal general equilibrium model endogenizing the capital-skill complementarity relationship has been developed. The model distinguishes between two types of jobs, complex and simple, and two types of workers, high- and low-skilled. Complex jobs can only be occupied by high-skilled while simple jobs can be filled by both, high- and low-skilled workers. High-skilled workers in simple jobs continue to search for a job in the complex segment (on-the-job search). Matching processes are represented by matching functions à la Pissarides. Workers search intensities are endogenous. Calibrated on the Belgian economy, the model is able to reproduce the observed increase in unemployment rates and relative wage rigidity. Chapter 3 extends this theoretical setup to an endogenous growth framework, where embodied and disembodied technological progress are differentiated and endogenized through a learning-by-doing process based on capital accumulation. The new model also provides a realistic representation of the labor market and it considers growth issues. Chapter 4 analyzes the effects of technological and organizational changes within firms on the turnover of different professional categories. Empirical results, based on a unique French data set, suggest that ICT introduction increases labor flows of manual workers and employees, whereas most of the new workplace organizational practices raise the turnover of managers. / Cette dissertation cherche à déterminer le possible impact des nouvelles technologies de l'information et la communication (TIC) sur les relations économiques et sociales. Est-ce que c'est correct de parler d'une révolution ? Il est sûrement trop tôt pour en conclure. Pourtant l'impact social des TIC semble évident : la vie quotidienne des ménages, entreprises et administrations publiques dans les pays développés est aujourd'hui liée aux nouvelles technologies. Concernant son impact économique, cette dissertation a cherché à signaler leur rôle dans les faits stylisés qui ont caractérisé l'évolution des économies européennes sur les 30 dernières années. En se servant des données espagnols, le chapitre 1 montre que, sur les 20 dernières années, l'accumulation de capital, particulièrement de TIC, a mené aux entreprises a se réorganiser internement. D'ailleurs, ces changements organisationnels ont été biaisés en faveur des travailleurs qualifiés dont la demande s'est vue stimulée. En se basant sur ces résultats, le chapitre 2 développe un modèle inter-temporaire d'équilibre général endogéneisant la relation de complémentarité entre capital et travail qualifié. Le modèle distingue entre deux types de postes de travail, complexes et simple, et deux types de travailleurs, qualifiés et non qualifiés. Les postes de travail complexe peuvent être occupés seulement par les travailleurs qualifiés alors que les postes simples peuvent être occupés par les deux types de travailleurs. Les travailleurs qualifiés en postes simples continuent à chercher du travail dans le marché complexe pendant leur temps libre. Le procès de matching est représenté par des fonctions de matching à la Pissarides. Les intensités de recherche de l'emploi sont endogènes. Les modèle, calibré sur l'économie belge, reproduit de façon satisfaisante l'augmentation du chômage et la stabilité des salaires relatifs observés en Belgique pendant les dernières décades. Le chapitre 3 étend ce cadre théorique à un modèle de croissance endogène où le progrès technologique incorporé et désincorporé sont différenciés et endogèneisés à travers d'un procès de learning-by-doing fondé sur l'accumulation du capital. Le nouveau modèle fourni une représentation réaliste du marché de travail et il considère en même temps le sujet de la croissance. Le chapitre 4 analyse les effets des changements technologiques et organisationnels au sein des firmes sur les flux de travail de différentes catégories professionnelles. Les résultats empiriques, obtenus à partir d'une base de données française, suggèrent que l'introduction des TIC augmente les flux de travail des travailleurs manuels et les employés, alors que la plupart des nouvelles pratiques organisationnelles stimulent les flux de travail des cadres.

[pt] A ascenção dos computadores e da banda-larga móvel e fixa são fatores importantes nas mudanças observadas no mercado de trabalho dos países ricos. Conforme o mundo tecnológico rapidamente evolui e cada vez mais rápida conectividade surge, há pouca evidência dos impactos das atuais tecnologias nos países em desenvolvimento. O Brasil, em particular, durante a última década, observou uma notória expansão do acesso à internet móvel. Nesta dissertação, explora-se o rápido avanço da cobertura de 4G para estimar os efeitos causais de internet móvel rápida para mercados locais de trabalho formal no Brasil. Como as tecnologias de 4G não são instaladas randomicamente, compromissos de abrangência, presentes nos contratos entre operadores nacionais da banda de 4G e a agência nacional de telecomunicações (ANATEL), servem como variável instrumental para presença de internet. O crescimento médio observado na amostra de número de operadores presente em cada mercado local é responsável por uma redução de 8 porcento nos contratos formais de trabalho (40 porcento da variação no período). Esta redução é causada por (i) redução de rotatividade e por (ii) efeitos de desemprego. Consistentes com a hipótese de rotineirização, o 4G reduz a demanda de trabalho para tarefas rotineiras e manuais. Com isso, há um aumento da proporção de trabalhadores com ensino superior e em ocupações que exigem maior qualificação. Os efeitos são concentrados no extremo da distribuição dos setores em termos de uso de tecnologias, mas não houve efeitos na composição das indústrias. Identifica-se evidência sugestiva de que banda-larga móvel está associada à polarização nos empregos. / [en] The rise of computerization and fixed and mobile broadband has been an important factor for changes in the labor market of rich countries. However, as the world of tech rapidly evolves and even faster mobile internet emerges, there is still little evidence about the impact of current mobile technologies in developing countries. Brazil, in particular, during the last decade, has seen a remarkable increase in mobile internet access. In this dissertation, I explore this rapid expansion of 4G coverage to estimate the causal effects of fast mobile internet in formal local labor markets in Brazil. Since 4G technologies are not rolled out randomly, provision commitments in contracts between 4G national operators and Brazilian regulatory agency of telecommunications (ANATEL) work as an instrumental variable to internet presence. The average increase of mobile operators observed in sample is responsible for a reduction of 8 percent in formal employment contracts (about 40 percent of the variation in period). This reduction is explained by (i) reduced turnover and by (ii) displacement effects. Consistent with the routinization hypothesis, 4G expansion shifts labor demand away from manual and routine tasks. This, in turn, has benefited more high-skilled workers, increasing the share of college-graduates in the labor force and the average skill level index of local labor markets. Effects are driven by the extremes of the distribution of technological intensity but there are no changes in the industry-composition of labor markets. I also show suggestive evidence that mobile broadband is associated with job polarization.