The primary objective of this thesis is to develop a model for quantification of weather-related railway embankments hazards. The model for quantification of embankment hazards constitutes an essential component of a decision support system that is required for the management of railway embankment hazards. A model for the deterministic and probabilistic assessment of weather-related geo-hazards (W-GHA model) is proposed based on concepts of unsaturated soil mechanics and hydrology. The model combines a system of two-dimensional partial differential equations governing the thermo-hydro-mechanical behaviour of saturated/unsaturated soils and soil-atmosphere coupling equations. A Dynamic Programming algorithm for slope stability analysis (Safe-DP) was developed and incorporated into the W-GHA model. Finally, an efficient probabilistic and sensitivity analysis framework based on an alternative point estimate method was proposed. According to the W-GHA model framework, railway embankment hazards are assessed based on factors of safety and probabilities of failures computed using soil property variability and case scenarios. <p> A comprehensive study of unsaturated property variability is presented. A methodology for the characterization and assessment of unsaturated soil property variability is proposed. Appropriate fitting equations and parameter were selected. Probability density functions adequate for representing the unsaturated soil parameters studied were determined. Typical central tendency measures, variability measures, and correlation coefficients were established for the unsaturated soil parameters. The inherent variability of the unsaturated soil properties can be addressed using the probabilistic analysis framework proposed herein. <p> A large number of hypothetical railway embankments were analysed using the proposed model. The embankment analyses were undertaken in order to demonstrate the application of the proposed model and in order to determine the sensitivity of the factor of safety to the uncertainty in several input variables. The conclusions drawn from the sensitivity analysis study resulted in important simplifications of the W-GHA model. It was shown how unsaturated soil mechanics can be applied for the assessment of near ground surface stability hazards. The approach proposed in this thesis forms a protocol for application of unsaturated soil mechanics into geotechnical engineering practice. This protocol is based on predicted unsaturated soil properties and based on the use of case scenarios for addressing soil property uncertainty. Other classes of unsaturated soil problems will benefit from the protocol presented in this thesis.

In this study, the failure mechanism of the shore landslide which occured at Degirmendere coast region during 17 August 1999 Kocaeli (Izmit) - Turkey earthquake is analyzed. Geotechnical studies of the region are at hand, which reveal soil properties and geological formation of the region as well as the topography of the shore basin after deformations. The failure is analyzed as a landslide and permanent displacements are calculated by Newmark Method under 17 August 1999 Izmit record, scaled to a maximum acceleration of 0.4g. There are discussions on the main dominating mechanism of failure / landslide, liquefaction, fault rupture and lateral spreading. According to the studies, the failure mechanism is a seismically induced shore landslide also triggered by liquefaction and fault rupture, accompanied by the mechanism of lateral spreading by turbulence. A seismically induced landslide is discussed and modeled in this study. The finite element programs TELSTA and TELDYN are employed for static and dynamic analyses. Slope stability analyses are performed with the program SLOPE. The permanent displacements are calculated with Newmark Method, with the help of a MATLAB program, without considering the excess pore pressures.

Slope movements cause considerable damage to life and property in Turkey as well as in the world. Although they do not typically cause loss of life, slow landslide movements can severely damage structures, interrupt the serviceability of lifelines / and, related stabilization efforts can be too costly. Most of these slow-moving landslides are reactivated landslides in stiff clays and shales, and they are mainly triggered by rainfall induced high pore water pressures. In this study, a number of reactivated, slow-moving landslide case histories with extensive pore pressure and movement data are selected for further analysis. For these landslides, the relation between pore water pressures, factor of safety and rate of movements of the slide are investigated by using limit equilibrium and finite element methods. It is found that there is a nonlinear relationship between these three variables. Sensitivity of slow moving landslides to changes in pore water pressure is developed by defining the percent change in factor of safety and percent change in pore pressure coefficient, for 10-fold change in velocity. Such relations could especially be useful in planning required level of remediation, for example, to decide on how many meters the ground water level should be lowered at a certain piezometric location, so that the stability increases to a desired level of F.S., and movement rates are reduced to an acceptable slow rate.

Evaluation of the seismic stability of slopes often involves an estimate of the expected sliding displacements. This evaluation requires a suite of acceleration-time histories as input motions. The methods of selecting and scaling these motions can affect the computed sliding displacements. Linear scaling of recorded ground motions and modification of recorded motions by spectral matching are common approaches used for ground motion selection and these approaches were used in this study to select motions for use in sliding displacement analyses. Rigid sliding block analyses and decoupled flexible sliding block analyses were performed using a suite of linearly scaled motions and a suite of spectrally matched motions. . Generally, the spectrally matched motions predict 10 to 30%, on average, smaller displacements and significantly less variability than the linearly scaled motions, when both suites of input motions were developed to match the same acceleration response spectrum. When both suites of input motions were developed to match the same peak ground velocity and acceleration response spectrum, the spectrally matched motions generally predict 5 to 15%, on average, larger displacements than the linearly scaled motions. Because ground motion parameters beyond acceleration response spectrum affect the computed sliding displacement, parameters such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and mean period (T[subscript m]) should be considered in selecting and scaling motions for use in sliding displacement analyses. / text

The rigid sliding-block analysis introduced by Newmark in 1965 has become a popular method for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes. Estimates of sliding displacement calculated using this methodology serve as an index of seismic performance and are used for mapping seismic landslide hazard potential. The original approach of rigorously integrating ground acceleration time-histories to compute estimates of sliding displacement has been replaced by the use of simple, empirical models that predict displacement as a function of a slope's yield acceleration and one or more measures of ground shaking. To be useful the results of these models must be compared with observations of landslides from previous earthquakes. Seven different empirical models were evaluated by comparing predicted displacements with an inventory of observed landslides from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Using a comprehensive set of ground motion data and shear strength properties from the Northridge earthquake, sliding displacements were calculated within a geographic information system (GIS) and the accuracy of each model was computed. The influence of factors such as landslide size, geologic unit, slope angle, and material strength on the prediction of landslides was also evaluated. The results were used to show that the accuracy of the predictive models depends less on the model used and more on the uncertainty in the model parameters, specifically the assigned shear strength values. Because current approaches do not take into account the spatial variability of strength within individual geologic units, the accuracy of the predictive models is controlled by the distribution of slope angles within observed and predicted landslide cells. Assigning overly conservative (low) shear strength values results in a higher percentage of landslides accurately identified, but also results in a large over-estimation of the seismic landslide hazard. / text

Σκοπός της παρούσας Διατριβής Ειδίκευσης είναι η παρακολούθηση του κατολισθητικού φαινομένου του οικισμού Καρυάς του Δήμου Πατρέων, με μετρήσεις αποκλισιομέτρων ώστε να προσδιοριστεί ποσοτικά ο ρυθμός μετακίνησης της περιοχής μελέτης και να εξαχθούν συμπεράσματα για την μελλοντική του εξέλιξη, όπως καθορίζεται μέσω αναλύσεων ευστάθειας πρανών. Η εν λόγω περιοχή παρουσιάζει αξιόλογο ενδιαφέρον, λόγω των ιδιαίτερων και σύνθετων γεωλογικών συνθηκών, των συχνών και σημαντικών κατολισθητικών φαινομένων των τελευταίων ετών που προκάλεσαν σημαντικές καταστροφές σε τεχνικά έργα και ανθρώπινες περιουσίες. Στα πλαίσια της Διατριβής και της παράλληλης Έρευνας του Εργαστηρίου Τεχνικής Γεωλογίας στην περιοχή ενδιαφέροντος πραγματοποιήθηκε λεπτομερής γεωτεχνική έρευνα που περιελάμβανε ανόρυξη δειγματοληπτικών γεωτρήσεων σε επιλεγμένες θέσεις με ταυτόχρονη τοποθέτηση αποκλισιομέτρων, συστηματική λήψη αποκλισιομετρικών μετρήσεων, σειρά εργαστηριακών και επί τόπου δοκιμών σε κατάλληλα διαμορφωμένα δείγματα, λεπτομερή καταγραφή των τεχνικογεωλογικών συνθηκών της περιοχής με βάση κυρίως τη σύσταση, τη δομή των γεωλογικών σχηματισμών. Έγινε διάκριση των σχηματισμών της περιοχής έρευνας σε επιμέρους Γεωτεχνικές Ενότητες και σχεδιάστηκαν αντιπροσωπευτικές γεωτεχνικές – τεχνικογεωλογικές διατομές με σκοπό τη σύνθεση και ερμηνεία του γεωτεχνικού περιβάλλοντος της περιοχής. Παράλληλα πραγματοποιήθηκαν αναλύσεις ευστάθειας πρανών με χρήση εξειδικευμένου λογισμικού σε επιλεγμένες διατομές κατά μήκος των γεωτρήσεων στην κατολισθαίνουσα ζώνη Καρυάς. Σκοπός των αναλύσεων ευστάθειας πρανών ήταν να γίνει εκτίμηση πιθανών μετακινήσεων σε επιλεγμένα σημεία της περιοχής έρευνας και να παρατηρηθεί εάν το είδος ολίσθησης εξακολουθεί να είναι το ίδιο με αυτό που είχε διαπιστωθεί κατά την τελευταία εκδήλωση του κατολισθητικού φαινομένου. / The Aim of this ΜSc. Project is the exploration of the landslide phenomeno in the region of Karya, Patras, Western Greece by inclinometer measurements in order to define quantitatively the movement rate of the study area and export conclusions on its future development, as it specified via slope stability analysis. The study area is an area with complex geological conditions and is well known especially for the important and large-scale landslide phenomena which have taken place during the last years near Karya village and caused important destructions in engineering works and human fortunes. This project was done along with survey of the Laboratory of Engineering Geology, Geology Department, University of Patras. The full survey program included geological mapping focused on the engineering properties of the soil and rock formations, fifteen (15) sampling boreholes, inclinometer installation and measurement and laboratory tests. Through laboratory testing and detailed description of soil and rock samples the formations were classified in several units and several geotechnical cross-sections were constructed to make a general geological-geotechnical model of the study area. The geological and geotechnical data were used to perform Limit Equilibrium Slope Stability analysis. The survey results were used to define probable movements of the study area and to establish the slipping type.

The City of Winnipeg, located at the confluence of the Red and Assiniboine Rivers, has over 240 km of natural riverbank property. The increased frequency and magnitude of flooding along the Red and Assiniboine Rivers over the past decade appears to have influenced the number of slope failures along riverbank property, resulting in the loss of both public green space and privately owned land. The loss of private and public property adjacent to the river has led to the loss of valuable real estate and public parkland amenities. To ensure that riverbank property is preserved for future generations, the City of Winnipeg wants to increase the stability of certain reaches of publicly owned riverbank property along the Red and Assiniboine Rivers that are prone to slope movements. Extensive research has been conducted on slope stability problems in the Winnipeg area, but a transparent prioritization procedure for the remediation of riverbank stability problems has not existed. Therefore, a Riverbank Asset Management System (RAMS) was developed for publicly owned riverbank property to prioritize riverbank slope stability problems along the Red and Assiniboine Rivers. The RAMS provides the City of Winnipeg with a rational approach for determining risk levels for specific reaches of the Red and Assiniboine Rivers. The calculated risk levels allow the City to develop recommended response levels for slope stability remediation projects in a fiscally responsible manner with minimal personal and political influences. This system permits the City to facilitate timely and periodic reviews of priority sites as riverbank conditions and input parameters change.

Geotechnical engineering design has relied upon deterministic methods of analysis whereby values for analysis parameters and conditions are selected subjectively based on judgment with the intent of providing acceptable margins of safety. The objective of this research was to improve the use of probabilistic slope stability analysis in practice so that the design of slopes can be made on a consistent and probabilistic basis. The current research involved the development of a methodology for the measurement and modeling of the anisotropic autocorrelation distance of cohesive soils, which was demonstrated at Dyke 17 West of the McArthur Falls Generating Station. In-situ testing using the piezocone and laboratory testing was conducted to characterize the spatial variability of the effective-shear strength envelope. Vertical (down-hole) and horizontal (cross-hole) geostatistical analysis was conducted to assess the anisotropy of the semivariogram. The investigation identified that heterogeneous inclusions had significant impacts on the results, but that simplistic (visual) identification and filtering procedures were adequate. The effective-stress shear strength envelope was statistically characterized as a random field, which was simulated as a first-order Markov process using customized add-in functions in a limit-equilibrium slope stability analysis. The analysis accounts for the spatial variability of shear strength and is capable of simulating both isotropic and anisotropic autocorrelation functions. The study showed that the critical slip surface geometry and the probability of failure can be significantly different when the anisotropy of spatial correlation is accounted for. The study also showed that neglecting spatial correlation may over-estimate the probability of failure, however this finding was noted to be likely case-specific. The primary conclusion of the study was that appropriate representation of spatial correlation is essential to calculating the probability of failure. Finally, convergence of the probabilistic simulation was evaluated using bootstrapping of the simulated factor of safety distribution to assess the standard error in the mean factor of safety, standard deviation of factor of safety and the probability of failure. A convergence criterion based on the percentage standard error in the probability of failure was proposed and used to define the number of Monte-Carlo iterations required.

Element test results reported in the literature under both triaxial and plane strain conditions indicate that loose saturated granular specimens can experience softening instability at stress ratios lower than what might otherwise be expected given the critical state friction angle of the soil. The region of potential softening instability in stress-space is often explained using the framework of the instability line. This phenomenon is particularly relevant to shallow slopes of 1 to 2 m depth. However, the practical realities of sample preparation for triaxial testing make performing tests below 20 to 30 kPa of confining stress exceptionally difficult. In this thesis, the development of a centrifuge tilt-table test device is described which aims to test the behaviour of loose granular slopes under stress paths of increasing slope inclination or increasing pore water pressure. A system of instrumentation including pore pressure transducers, inclinometers, displacement transducers, and high-resolution cameras was designed to monitor the behaviour of the slope model. The development of a system to provide a controlled groundwater level within the slope model proved to be particularly challenging. The results of two competing design concepts are presented for the water boundary condition and discussed. The centrifuge tilt-table is used to compare the physical response of a slope to the behaviour predicted by the infinite slope and softening instability models using scale model centrifuge testing. If softening instability is a rigorous concept, it should be the primary observed failure mechanism as it will occur at a stress state below the failure line. Tests were performed on loose Ottawa F110 sand at 1g, 20g and 40g and 60g. Deviatoric strain-softening was observed in loose dry sand. The softening instability event resulted in a rapid increase in shear strain at constant shear stress while the soil was at a stress state below the failure envelope. Any soil that can experience softening instability (i.e. granular, loose, saturated, and behaves undrained) will undergo two failures: one caused by deviatoric strain-softening (softening instability) and a second caused by shear failure at a larger slope angle. / Thesis (Master, Civil Engineering) -- Queen's University, 2014-04-29 22:01:36.786

The City of Winnipeg, located at the confluence of the Red and Assiniboine Rivers, has over 240 km of natural riverbank property. The increased frequency and magnitude of flooding along the Red and Assiniboine Rivers over the past decade appears to have influenced the number of slope failures along riverbank property, resulting in the loss of both public green space and privately owned land. The loss of private and public property adjacent to the river has led to the loss of valuable real estate and public parkland amenities. To ensure that riverbank property is preserved for future generations, the City of Winnipeg wants to increase the stability of certain reaches of publicly owned riverbank property along the Red and Assiniboine Rivers that are prone to slope movements. Extensive research has been conducted on slope stability problems in the Winnipeg area, but a transparent prioritization procedure for the remediation of riverbank stability problems has not existed. Therefore, a Riverbank Asset Management System (RAMS) was developed for publicly owned riverbank property to prioritize riverbank slope stability problems along the Red and Assiniboine Rivers. The RAMS provides the City of Winnipeg with a rational approach for determining risk levels for specific reaches of the Red and Assiniboine Rivers. The calculated risk levels allow the City to develop recommended response levels for slope stability remediation projects in a fiscally responsible manner with minimal personal and political influences. This system permits the City to facilitate timely and periodic reviews of priority sites as riverbank conditions and input parameters change.