Prior research finds that mutual fund investors have adequate ability to select funds which superior performance remains persistent. Following the work of Keswani and Stolin (2008), we use a fund netflow as a proxy for investors¡¦ preference to examine whether the smart money effect exists. Furthermore, this paper differs from prior research by combining the smart money phenomenon and fund firm¡¦s marketing activities (the advertising expenditure of mutual funds). This paper generates four empirical findings. (1) Mutual funds with positive netflow subsequently have positive Carhart four-factor alpha, that is, the ¡§smart money effect¡¨ exists in Taiwanese mutual fund market. (2) The smart money effect is caused by investors¡¦ buying decisions. (3) The smart money effect is only a short-lived phenomenon. (4) Our evidence shows that advertising of funds can explain the smart money effect in Taiwanese open-end mutual fund market.

This thesis is an attempt to advance our understanding of investor behaviour in one of the world’s largest markets, i.e. the mutual fund industry. It consists of three essays that answer the following questions: Does investor fund-selection ability explain the impressive growth of the U.K. mutual fund industry? Does the behaviour of U.S. mutual fund investors vary across the business cycle? And, how do investors react to U.S. mutual fund name changes? The first essay explores the role of investor fund-selection ability in explaining the growth of the mutual fund industry given that previous studies find that mutual funds underperform their benchmarks on average. I examine such ability in the context of the remarkable growth experienced by U.K. mutual funds during the decade of 2000-2010. Using three alternative measures of selection ability and two for performance measurement, I find that fund-selection ability is explained away by the momentum factor due to investors naively chasing recent winners. In addition, this essay is the first to examine the impact of fund visibility on selection ability. I find that fund visibility is an important factor in the investment decision-making process, and one that fund managers can potentially manipulate to their advantage. The second essay is motivated by recent findings that benchmark-adjusted returns to the fund industry are positive in periods of economic contractions. Previous literature is silent on investor behaviour in the face of superior average returns. This essay fills the gap in literature by examining investor’s fund-selection ability across the business cycle. I examine U.S. fund data from 1970-2011 and find that while genuine selection ability does not exist in any period, investors do behave differently across the business cycle. Specifically, investors no longer chase recent winners during contractions, despite no change in fund performance consistency. Instead, I find that investors are more concerned about controlling their risk exposure, especially to the market, during periods of economic downturn. The third essay examines investor reactions to U.S. mutual fund name changes, following the adoption of a new SEC ruling in 2001 to curtail misleading names. We uncover striking evidence that funds continue to undertake cosmetic name changes, and that such changes appear to mislead investors. I find that investors react more positively to cosmetic name changes than non-cosmetic ones. This result is not driven by marketing efforts. Instead, further examination reveals that this arises because cosmetic name changes frequently include industry ‘buzzwords’ in the new name, a tactic that is rewarded with higher flows to such funds. I also find that additional name changes by a fund continue to attract significant flows, although the magnitude of the flows decreases over each successive event. This essay provides compelling evidence in favour of investor irrationality and has implications for both practitioners and academics.

國外研究證實，由於基金績效具有持續性，則理性的投資人會以過去績效最為投資參考依據，將資金投入過去表現佳的基金，而此一投資決策應能持續創造超額報酬或風險溢酬，因此市場資金應會流向未來績效佳的基金（smart money effect)，此即為現金流量報酬預期效果且由於基金的現金流量變動代表投資人的投資決策變動，故現金流量報酬預期效果亦即為投資人對於股票型基金報酬的預測能力。 為瞭解台灣基金投資是否具有報酬預測能力（選對好基金，將資金由壞基金中抽離的決策），而此能力是否會因基金基金規模產生差異，且市場投資人可否根據此一公開資訊（上上期的現金流量）、累積資訊（累積前三期的淨現金流量）作為投資參考，並賺取超額報酬。本研究根據建構八組投資組合，包括三組不同基礎的現金流入（出）交易策略，比較各投資組合的報酬預期效果。 結果發現，台灣股票型基金投資人並不具備報酬預期能力，且常做出錯誤的決策，通常由好基金中籌離資金，喪失獲取較佳報酬的機會。而市場投資人無法藉由遞延一期的現金流量資訊獲取較佳超額報酬機會，但可藉由過去累積三期的現金流量資訊，將資金由淨現金流入金額大的基金中抽離，並投資於淨現金流出金額較大的基金，可因而獲取較佳的績效。另外，投資人對小型基金的報酬預期能力優於大型基金。

The main aim of this study is to examine the interrelationship of finance and government intervention in explaining the rise of co-productions in the international film industry in the time period between 1997 and 2004. Mainstream economic geography literature presents the film industry typically as a case study for embeddedness and agglomeration effects, with successful industry clusters drawing their strength from process knowledge, networks and local interaction. However, there is an increasing disparity in the literature between what mainstream theory suggests, and what empirical studies find with respect to the importance of cluster-external relations and dynamics. This, as I will argue, is particularly evident when looking at the picture of the whole film industry production system that emerges from the literature, which fails to include the alternative and complimentary pattern of co-productions. Co-productions are collaborations between film producers from at least two different countries, pooling their resources across distance to produce a feature film project. In the past fifteen years, the number of films made as co-productions has risen continuously in Europe, with co-productions accounting for more than 30 per cent of European film production activity. As a mode of production based on temporary, cross-border collaboration that is supported in its coordination by temporary clusters, such as trade fairs and industry events, the coproduction phenomenon poses a conundrum to economic geography literature and challenges its explanatory framework. As I will argue, in order to arrive at a satisfactory understanding of the phenomenon, it is necessary to look beyond social factors associated with locality, and to examine instead dynamics impacting on the industrial organization of the whole production system. I will argue that in the context of the pervasive demand uncertainty characterizing the film industry, the analytical focus should be on financial dynamics, as production activity and its organizational form are ultimately dependent on finance as an enabling force. Based on a description of the film financing process as the primary process in which the relationship between the economic categories of financial and production capital are played out, I propose that in order to explain the growth of co-productions empirically, it is necessary to examine changes in the film financing environments of the increasingly interrelated European and US film industries. As the State is the most important provider of financial capital in the European film industry through the provision of public aid, the focus will lie in particular on the consequences of a paradigm change in the rationale of State intervention in Europe moving away from funding film for cultural reason, to supporting the industry on economic grounds since the mid 1990s. As will be shown, the most important consequence of this paradigm change has been the introduction of tax incentives to encourage investment into film in a number of European and international countries within a short period of time. As will be demonstrated, this has led to the formation of significant, locally confined capital pools that can dis-embed production; and to the emergence of a distinct capital cycle in international film financing, which has strongly impacted on the productive system of the film industry. Finally, a dynamic explanation for the growth of co-productions in Europe in the time period between 1997 and 2004 will be provided. I will argue that co-productions have firstly grown in order to overcome a lack of finance, but have in the context of a capital cycle based on tax incentives from Germany and the UK, increasingly become driven by the opposite dynamic, namely an abundance of financial capital seeking profitable investment opportunities. The study will conclude with a discussion of policy implications, a summary of contributions to the literature and a brief overview of future research opportunities.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:51:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 154941.pdf.jpg: 12079 bytes, checksum: 809428fce6feb0072e770a5b74f32903 (MD5) 154941.pdf: 545730 bytes, checksum: ff5c0f2f9eb9820b7a86ba64f3d0f907 (MD5) 154941.pdf.txt: 108893 bytes, checksum: 77009802f4e69002e5a5064d61049c82 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-02-13T00:00:00Z / O presente trabalho estuda o efeito Smart Money, inicialmente identificado por GRUBER (1996) e ZHENG (1999), na indústria de fundos brasileira no período de 2001 a 2005. Buscou-se identificar se os fundos que apresentaram maior captação líquida em seguida performam melhor do que os fundos de menor captação líquida. O efeito Smart Money foi identificado nos fundos de ações mesmo após ter sido controlado pelo efeito momentum. Nos fundos multimercados com renda variável e nos fundos de renda fixa não foi possível identificar tal fenômeno. / This work studies the Smart Money Effect, initially identified by GRUBER (1996) and ZHENG (1999), in the brazilian mutual fund industry in the period of 2001-2005. The objective was to verify if the funds with the highest net cash flows had a better performance in the following period than the funds with the lowest net cash flows. The Smart Money Effect was identified in stock funds, even after controlling by the stock return momentum phenomenon. In mixed funds and in fixed income funds it was not possible to identify such effect.

本研究探討2001年1月至2016年12月內所有以台股市場為標的之開放式股票型基金，透過多元迴歸模型與交易策略法深入的了解資金流量與過去和未來一期報酬率之間的關聯性，並從中探討台灣投資人的行為偏好。 透過多元迴歸模型與交易策略法可以發現代表台灣投資人投資偏好的資金淨流量變動率普遍有追逐過去績效表現優異之基金的傾向，接著探討資金淨流量變動率與未來一期報酬率的關聯後發現，台灣共同基金市場上當期資金淨流量變動率越高的基金，普遍在未來短期內所獲得的報酬率有較低的現象，然而隨著未來報酬期間的拉長，此現象便逐漸消失，最主要的解釋原因為台灣共同基金投資人普遍有追逐過去績效表現優異之基金的傾向，使過去績效表現較好的基金容易湧入過多的申購資金，而這些基金雖然在過去一期該基金經理團隊可以憑藉著自己所擅長的產業與個股經驗，挑選到具有成長潛力的投資標的，但隨著過去一期的優異表現，這些基金的投資組合持股價格已經來到相對高點，難以持續擁有良好的報酬表現，加上基金經理團隊手上仍握有許多等待投資的現金，最終可能迫使基金經理團隊必須開始涉入自己不熟悉的產業與個股，增加錯誤投資的機會而使績效表現變差，然而長期而言，該基金經理團隊仍可以憑藉著自己的專業投資能力，重新尋找到優良投資標的，消化過去湧入的投資資金，改善過去短期績效表現不佳的狀況。 / This study explored all open-ended equity funds targeting Taiwan’s stock market from January 2001 to December 2016. Through multiple regression model and trading strategy method, we got an in-depth understanding of the relationship between fund flows and both past and future returns, and the characteristics of the trading behavior of Taiwan’s investors were further investigated. By using multiple regression model and trading strategy method we found evidence that Taiwan’s investors have the tendency to chase mutual funds which had superior performance in the last period. Following this issue, we also found that funds with higher fund inflow generally had lower return in the short term time horizons, but the phenomenon would gradually disappear when the time horizons were extended. The main explanation of this phenomenon is that Taiwan’s investors generally have the tendency to buy mutual funds which gave superior return in the last period, so that funds with better performance in the past are prone to attract subscription. Although in the last period, these funds’ management team could rely on their own industrial and individual stock-picking experience, selecting those stocks with high growth potential. However, with an outstanding performance in previous period, stock prices in those fund’s portfolio had come to a relatively high point, so it’s hard to maintain good performance. With a vast sum of fund inflow, the management team may also be forced to invest in the industries or companies that they’re unfamiliar with, causing the possibility of wrong investment. However, when the time horizons were extended, the management team could digest the inflow of investment funds by rediscovering good investment targets and improve their fund performance.