The dissertation aims to obtain an integrated and comprehensive perspective on measurement issues that play a strategic role in organisations that aim at continuous quality improvement through TQM. The multidimensional definition of quality is proposed to view quality holistically. The definition is dynamic, thus dimensions are subject to evolution. Measurement of the quality dimensions is investigated. The relationship between quality and cost, productivity and profitability respectively is examined. The product quality dimensions are redefined for processes. Measurement is a strategic component ofTQM. Integration of financial measures with supplier-; customer-; performance- and internal process measurement is essential for synergism. Measurement of quality management is an additional strategic quality dimension. Applicable research was integrated. Quantitative structures used successfully in industry to achieve quality improvement is important, thus the quality management maturity grid, cleanroom software engineering, software factories, quality function deployment, benchmarking and the ISO 9000 standards are briefly described. Software Metrics Programs are considered to be an application of a holistic measurement approach to quality. Two practical approaches are identified. A framework for initiating implementation is proposed. Two strategic software measurement issues are reliability and cost estimation. Software reliability measurement and modelling are introduced. A strategic approach to software cost estimation is suggested. The critical role of data collection is emphasized. Different approaches to implement software cost estimation in organisations are proposed. A total installed cost template as the ultimate goal is envisaged. An overview of selected software cost estimation models is provided. Potential research areas are identified. The linearity/nonlinearity nature of the software production function is analysed. The synergy between software cost estimation models and project management techniques is investigated. The quantification aspects of uncertainty in activity durations, pertaining to project scheduling, are discussed. Statistical distributions for activity durations are reviewed and compared. A structural view of criteria determining activity duration distribution selection is provided. Estimation issues are reviewed. The integration of knowledge from dispersed fields leads to new dimensions of interaction. Research and practical experience regarding software metrics and software metrics programs can be successfully applied to address the measurement of strategic indicators in other industries. / Business Management / D. Phil. (Operations Research)

Submitted by Secretaria Pós de Produção (tpp@vm.uff.br) on 2017-07-27T19:21:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 D2014 - José Cristiano Pereira.pdf: 9830334 bytes, checksum: d5be51799514c74451d0ca3358d7757b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-27T19:21:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 D2014 - José Cristiano Pereira.pdf: 9830334 bytes, checksum: d5be51799514c74451d0ca3358d7757b (MD5) / O processo de fabricação de motores a jato é complexo. Perigos e riscos e muitos elementos críticos estão presentes em milhares de atividades necessárias para fabricar um motor. Na investigação realizada nota-se a inexistência de um modelo específico para calcular quantitativamente a probabilidade de falha operacional de um motor à jato. O objetivo da tese foi desenvolver um modelo causal para análise de risco probabilística de falhas de motores a jato em situação operacional de fabricação. O modelo se caracteriza pela aplicação de rede Bayesiana associada à árvore de falha / árvore de evento e elicitação de probabilidades por especialistas para quantificar a probabilidade de falha. Para a concepção da construção do modelo, foi inicialmente desenvolvida uma pesquisa bibliométrica, através da consulta aos principais motores de busca nacionais e internacionais, em periódicos científicos e técnicos, bancos de dissertações/teses e eventos técnicos relacionados ao tema, para estabelecimento dos estado-da-arte e da técnica. Para a estimativa das probabilidades associadas aos cenários de falhas propostos, foi desenvolvido um processo de elicitação de probabilidade a partir da consulta a especialistas e técnicos. Na concepção do modelo foram consideradas três áreas de influência para a confiabilidade do sistema: humana, software e calibração. Como resultado foi desenvolvido o modelo CAPEMO, que é suportado por um aplicativo que utiliza a teoria das probabilidades (Lei de Bayes) para modelar incerteza. A probabilidade de falha estimada ao final da processo de fabricação, antes do motor ser colocado em operação, contribui no processo de tomada de decisão, melhoria da segurança do sistema e redução de riscos de falha do motor em operação / The process of jet engines manufacturing is complex. Hazards and risks and many critical elements are present in the thousands of activities required to manufacture an engine. In the conducted investigation it is observed a lack of a specific model to estimate quantitatively the probability of a jet engine operational failure. The goal of this thesis is to develop a causal model for probabilistic risk analysis of jet engines failure in manufacturing situational operation. The model is characterized by the application of Bayesian Network associated with the fault tree and event tree to quantify the probability of failure. For the establishment of state-of-the-art and technique and for the conception and construction of the model, a bibliometric research was conducted in the main national and international search engines, in the scientific and technical journals, in the database of dissertations/theses and technical events related to the topic. For the estimation of the probabilities associated with the proposed fault scenarios, a process of probability elicitation from technicians and experts was developed. In the design of the model three areas of influence for the reliability of the system were considered: human, software and calibration. As a result CAPEMO model was developed, that is supported by a software application that uses probability theory to model uncertainty. The probability of engine failure estimated at the end of the manufacturing process, before the motor be put into operation, helps in the allocation of resources in the decision-making process and improves system safety reducing the risk of engine failure in operation

The dissertation aims to obtain an integrated and comprehensive perspective on measurement issues that play a strategic role in organisations that aim at continuous quality improvement through TQM. The multidimensional definition of quality is proposed to view quality holistically. The definition is dynamic, thus dimensions are subject to evolution. Measurement of the quality dimensions is investigated. The relationship between quality and cost, productivity and profitability respectively is examined. The product quality dimensions are redefined for processes. Measurement is a strategic component ofTQM. Integration of financial measures with supplier-; customer-; performance- and internal process measurement is essential for synergism. Measurement of quality management is an additional strategic quality dimension. Applicable research was integrated. Quantitative structures used successfully in industry to achieve quality improvement is important, thus the quality management maturity grid, cleanroom software engineering, software factories, quality function deployment, benchmarking and the ISO 9000 standards are briefly described. Software Metrics Programs are considered to be an application of a holistic measurement approach to quality. Two practical approaches are identified. A framework for initiating implementation is proposed. Two strategic software measurement issues are reliability and cost estimation. Software reliability measurement and modelling are introduced. A strategic approach to software cost estimation is suggested. The critical role of data collection is emphasized. Different approaches to implement software cost estimation in organisations are proposed. A total installed cost template as the ultimate goal is envisaged. An overview of selected software cost estimation models is provided. Potential research areas are identified. The linearity/nonlinearity nature of the software production function is analysed. The synergy between software cost estimation models and project management techniques is investigated. The quantification aspects of uncertainty in activity durations, pertaining to project scheduling, are discussed. Statistical distributions for activity durations are reviewed and compared. A structural view of criteria determining activity duration distribution selection is provided. Estimation issues are reviewed. The integration of knowledge from dispersed fields leads to new dimensions of interaction. Research and practical experience regarding software metrics and software metrics programs can be successfully applied to address the measurement of strategic indicators in other industries. / Business Management / D. Phil. (Operations Research)

A certificação CERTICS foi desenvolvida para ser um instrumento de política pública que busca contribuir para o desenvolvimento nacional sustentável e pode apoiar as empresas nacionais de software na evolução necessária para se tornarem mais competitivas frente aos softwares estrangeiros. No entanto, esta certificação, assim como outras, requer investimento de profissionais e recursos financeiros, o que é um problema notadamente nas pequenas empresas de software. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de apresentar o GARREC, Guia para Atendimento dos Requisitos dos Resultados Esperados da CERTICS, que é uma ferramenta desenvolvida para apoiar no processo da certificação CERTICS, atuando em complemento à documentação existente. O GARREC foi construído visando facilitar o entendimento dos conceitos da CERTICS e no atendimento dos resultados esperados por meio de proposição de evidências, considerando cenários de pequenas empresas. Assim, o GARREC contribuirá para reduzir o investimento necessário para a certificação. O método de pesquisa adotado envolveu a análise do Modelo de Referência para Avaliação da CERTICS e o detalhamento dos Requisitos Específicos dos seus Resultados Esperados e, para estes foram propostas evidências para atendimento classificadas por relevância. Desta forma, todos os aspectos avaliados são considerados, garantindo qualidade de cobertura do atendimento aos requisitos da certificação. Para a avaliação do GARREC foi realizado um experimento no qual os participantes o utilizaram para atender a resultados esperados predeterminados e responderam a uma pesquisa. Participaram do experimento três empresas com diferentes níveis de conhecimento da CERTICS, uma empresa certificada, uma em processo de certificação e uma sem conhecimento anterior. A partir dos resultados coletados da pesquisa de avaliação, o GARREC atinge os seus objetivos de auxiliar no entendimento e no atendimento dos requisitos da certificação CERTICS, com 91,3% de aceitação aos itens de efetividade e 97,5% referente aos itens de aplicabilidade. Uma validação mais ampla em campo ainda se faz necessária para uma avaliação mais consistente da ferramenta. / The CERTICS certification was developed to be a public policy tool that seeks to contribute to sustainable national development and it can support national software companies in the evolution required to become more competitive compared to the foreign software. However, this certification, as well as others, requires professional investment and financial resources, which is usually a problem for small software companies. This work aims to present GARREC, Guide for Meeting the Requirements of Results Expected from CERTICS, which is a tool developed to support the understanding and obtaining of the CERTICS certification, working in addition to the existing documentation. GARREC was built to facilitate the understanding of the CERTICS’ concepts and in meeting the expected results through evidence proposition considering small business scenarios.Therefore, GARREC will contribute to reducing the investment required for certification. The research method involved the analysis of the Reference Model for Evaluation of CERTICS and detailing of the Specific Requirements of its Expected Results, and for these, evidence was presented to meet them, classified by relevance. In this way all evaluated aspects are considered, guaranteeing quality of coverage of the attendance to the certification requirements. For the GARREC evaluation, an experiment was carried out in which the participants used it to meet predetermined expected results and answered to a survey. Three companies with different levels of knowledge of CERTICS, a certified company, one in the process of certification and one without previous knowledge participated in the experiment. Based on the results of the evaluation survey, GARREC achieves its objectives of assisting in the understanding and fulfillment of CERTICS certification requirements, with 91.3% acceptance of the items referring to Effectiveness and, 97.5% acceptance of the related items Applicability. Further validation in the field is still necessary for a more consistent evaluation of the tool.

A certificação CERTICS foi desenvolvida para ser um instrumento de política pública que busca contribuir para o desenvolvimento nacional sustentável e pode apoiar as empresas nacionais de software na evolução necessária para se tornarem mais competitivas frente aos softwares estrangeiros. No entanto, esta certificação, assim como outras, requer investimento de profissionais e recursos financeiros, o que é um problema notadamente nas pequenas empresas de software. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de apresentar o GARREC, Guia para Atendimento dos Requisitos dos Resultados Esperados da CERTICS, que é uma ferramenta desenvolvida para apoiar no processo da certificação CERTICS, atuando em complemento à documentação existente. O GARREC foi construído visando facilitar o entendimento dos conceitos da CERTICS e no atendimento dos resultados esperados por meio de proposição de evidências, considerando cenários de pequenas empresas. Assim, o GARREC contribuirá para reduzir o investimento necessário para a certificação. O método de pesquisa adotado envolveu a análise do Modelo de Referência para Avaliação da CERTICS e o detalhamento dos Requisitos Específicos dos seus Resultados Esperados e, para estes foram propostas evidências para atendimento classificadas por relevância. Desta forma, todos os aspectos avaliados são considerados, garantindo qualidade de cobertura do atendimento aos requisitos da certificação. Para a avaliação do GARREC foi realizado um experimento no qual os participantes o utilizaram para atender a resultados esperados predeterminados e responderam a uma pesquisa. Participaram do experimento três empresas com diferentes níveis de conhecimento da CERTICS, uma empresa certificada, uma em processo de certificação e uma sem conhecimento anterior. A partir dos resultados coletados da pesquisa de avaliação, o GARREC atinge os seus objetivos de auxiliar no entendimento e no atendimento dos requisitos da certificação CERTICS, com 91,3% de aceitação aos itens de efetividade e 97,5% referente aos itens de aplicabilidade. Uma validação mais ampla em campo ainda se faz necessária para uma avaliação mais consistente da ferramenta. / The CERTICS certification was developed to be a public policy tool that seeks to contribute to sustainable national development and it can support national software companies in the evolution required to become more competitive compared to the foreign software. However, this certification, as well as others, requires professional investment and financial resources, which is usually a problem for small software companies. This work aims to present GARREC, Guide for Meeting the Requirements of Results Expected from CERTICS, which is a tool developed to support the understanding and obtaining of the CERTICS certification, working in addition to the existing documentation. GARREC was built to facilitate the understanding of the CERTICS’ concepts and in meeting the expected results through evidence proposition considering small business scenarios.Therefore, GARREC will contribute to reducing the investment required for certification. The research method involved the analysis of the Reference Model for Evaluation of CERTICS and detailing of the Specific Requirements of its Expected Results, and for these, evidence was presented to meet them, classified by relevance. In this way all evaluated aspects are considered, guaranteeing quality of coverage of the attendance to the certification requirements. For the GARREC evaluation, an experiment was carried out in which the participants used it to meet predetermined expected results and answered to a survey. Three companies with different levels of knowledge of CERTICS, a certified company, one in the process of certification and one without previous knowledge participated in the experiment. Based on the results of the evaluation survey, GARREC achieves its objectives of assisting in the understanding and fulfillment of CERTICS certification requirements, with 91.3% acceptance of the items referring to Effectiveness and, 97.5% acceptance of the related items Applicability. Further validation in the field is still necessary for a more consistent evaluation of the tool.

Software prediction is a complex area as there are no accurate models to represent reliability throughout the use of software, unlike hardware reliability. In the context of the software reliability of on-board train systems, ensuring good software reliability over time is all the more critical given the current density of rail traffic and the risk of accidents resulting from a software malfunction. This thesis proposes to use soft computing methods and historical failure data to predict the software reliability of on-board train systems. For this purpose, four machine learning models (Multi-Layer Perceptron, Imperialist Competitive Algorithm Multi-Layer Perceptron, Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network) are compared to determine which has the best prediction performance. We also study the impact of having one or more features represented in the dataset used to train the models. The performance of the different models is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Squared Error and the R Squared. The report shows that the Long Short-Term Memory Network is the best performing model on the data used for this project. It also shows that datasets with a single feature achieve better prediction. However, the small amount of data available to conduct the experiments in this project may have impacted the results obtained, which makes further investigations necessary. / Att förutsäga programvara är ett komplext område eftersom det inte finns några exakta modeller för att representera tillförlitligheten under hela programvaruanvändningen, till skillnad från hårdvarutillförlitlighet. När det gäller programvarans tillförlitlighet i fordonsbaserade tågsystem är det ännu viktigare att säkerställa en god tillförlitlighet över tiden med tanke på den nuvarande tätheten i järnvägstrafiken och risken för olyckor till följd av ett programvarufel. I den här avhandlingen föreslås att man använder mjuka beräkningsmetoder och historiska data om fel för att förutsäga programvarans tillförlitlighet i fordonsbaserade tågsystem. För detta ändamål jämförs fyra modeller för maskininlärning (Multi-Layer Perceptron, Imperialist Competitive Algorithm Mult-iLayer Perceptron, Long Short-Term Memory Network och Convolutional Neural Network) för att fastställa vilken som har den bästa förutsägelseprestandan. Vi undersöker också effekten av att ha en eller flera funktioner representerade i den datamängd som används för att träna modellerna. De olika modellernas prestanda utvärderas med hjälp av medelabsolut fel, medelkvadratfel, rotmedelkvadratfel och R-kvadrat. Rapporten visar att Long Short-Term Memory Network är den modell som ger bäst resultat på de data som använts för detta projekt. Den visar också att dataset med en enda funktion ger bättre förutsägelser. Den lilla mängd data som fanns tillgänglig för att genomföra experimenten i detta projekt kan dock ha påverkat de erhållna resultaten, vilket gör att ytterligare undersökningar är nödvändiga.