The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near-Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating the various consequences of Space Weather. Several prediction techniques have been applied and have achieved varying degrees of success in the domain of solar activity prediction. These techniques include, for example, neural networks and geomagnetic precursor methods. In this thesis, various neural network based models were developed and the model considered to be optimum was used to estimate the shape and timing of solar cycle 24. Given the recent success of the geomagnetic precusrsor methods, geomagnetic activity as measured by the aa index is considered among the main inputs to the neural network model. The neural network model developed is also provided with the time input parameters defining the year and the month of a particular solar cycle, in order to characterise the temporal behaviour of sunspot number as observed during the last 10 solar cycles. The structure of input-output patterns to the neural network is constructed in such a way that the network learns the relationship between the aa index values of a particular cycle, and the sunspot number values of the following cycle. Assuming January 2008 as the minimum preceding solar cycle 24, the shape and amplitude of solar cycle 24 is estimated in terms of monthly mean and smoothed monthly sunspot number. This new prediction model estimates an average solar cycle 24, with the maximum occurring around June 2012 [± 11 months], with a smoothed monthly maximum sunspot number of 121 ± 9.

No description available.

Today, GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) is a widely spread technology and are used in many different ways. GNSS is the collective name for American GPS, Russian Glonass and European Galileo and some other smaller navigation systems. When surveying with GNSS technology, there are many things that can affect the accuracy of the measurements. In this thesis the focus is on how these measurements are being effected by disturbances in the ionosphere. The conditions in the ionosphere are largely affected by the amount of solar activities. A guideline for the amount of solar activity is to monitoring the sunspot numbers and the solar cycle. With more radiation occurring at radio frequencies as well as in the UV-region with more sunspots. The resulting free electrons influence the GNSS signals as they propagate through the ionosphere and the ionized gases cause the phase of the GNSS signal to shift and slows down the speed of the signal.   By processing data from three SWEPOS stations forming one shorter and one longer baseline, the estimated errors for the measurements are being calculated for different conditions in the ionosphere. The focus in this thesis is at the accuracy and precision of those measurements. To capture different ionospheric conditions, a few days from different parts of the solar cycle are chosen as representation for these different conditions. For each day different times of day and different length of measuring sessions are being calculated. All the calculations of the baselines are carried out in Trimble Business Center, and the results are presented in charts for each day and some key measurements are presented for the whole studied period.   The result gives no clear correlation between the number of sunspots and the accuracy and precision of the GNSS measurements, and it is not possible from the result to see that a particular time of the day is better suited for executing GNSS surveying.   From the studied material and the result of this thesis it is hard to see any dependency between the solar activity and the accuracy on GNSS measurements. It is not possible from the result see any connection between the length of the measuring time and the outcome of the measurement, as it is often no clear pattern stating that a longer measuring time would give better measurement.   The results differ in many ways from other reports on this subject and the result are so totally different that something seems to not be right in this report. If a correlation analysis had been performed instead of just an ocular examination, it had probably given a more satisfying result of the studied material.   The result of this thesis is in many ways on collision course with other similar report on this subject and therefore the results in this report can be neglected and rejected in favor of the result of this other more scientific reports.

The chemical reaction of the first excited electronic state of molecular nitrogen, N₂(A), with ground state atomic oxygen is an important contributor to thermospheric nitric oxide (NO).  The importance is assessed by including this reaction in a one-dimensional photochemical model.  The method is to scale the photoelectron impact ionization rate of molecular nitrogen by a Gaussian centered near 100 km. Large uncertainties remain in the temperature dependence and branching ratios of many reactions important to NO production and loss. Similarly large uncertainties are present in the solar soft x-ray irradiance, known to be the fundamental driver of the low-latitude NO.  To illustrate, it is shown that the equatorial, midday NO density measured by the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE) satellite near the Solar Cycle 23 maximum can be recovered by the model to within the 20% measurement uncertainties using two rather different but equally reasonable chemical schemes, each with their own solar soft-xray irradiance parameterizations.  Including the N₂(A) changes the NO production rate by an average of 11%, but the NO density changes by a much larger 44%.  This is explained by tracing the direct, indirect, and catalytic contributions of N₂(A) to NO, finding them to contribute 40%, 33%, and 27% respectively. The contribution of N₂(A) relative to the total NO production and loss is assessed by tracing both back to their origins in the primary photoabsorption and photoelectron impact processes.  The photoelectron impact ionization of N₂ is shown to be the main driver of the midday NO production while the photoelectron impact dissociation of N₂ is the main NO destroyer.  The net photoelectron impact excitation rate of N₂, which is responsible for the N₂(A) production, is larger than the ionization and dissociation rates and thus potentially very important.   Although the conservative assumptions regarding the level-specific NO yield from the N₂(A)+O reaction results in N₂(A) being a somewhat minor contributor, N₂(A) production is found to be the most efficient producer of NO among the thermospheric energy deposition processes. / Ph. D.

No description available.

The Earth’s atmosphere constitutes a complex system subject to a large number of forcings of both natural and anthropogenic origin; these influence its evolution on a range of timescales. This thesis makes use of the UMUKCA global chemistry-climate model to explore several aspects relating to the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing and future stratospheric ozone recovery. Firstly, following recent improvements in the model, the atmospheric response to the solar cycle forcing simulated in UMUKCA is discussed. It is shown that while some features show a broad resemblance to observations/reanalysis, there are clear differences with regard to other features; the latter could result from model deficiencies and/or uncertainties in the observed response. The role of analysis method and of interannual variability is also addressed. Secondly, the solar cycle response is separated into the individual contributions from direct radiative heating and from ozone production using a set of sensitivity experiments. It is shown that while the tropical yearly mean responses to the two components are generally linearly additive, this is not necessarily the case in the high latitudes. It is suggested that solar-induced ozone changes could be important for modulating the Southern Hemisphere dynamical response. Thirdly, the role of the representation of the solar ozone response is studied. It is shown that the choice of the solar ozone response prescribed in the radiation scheme in non-interactive ozone experiments has a substantial impact on the simulated temperature response to the solar cycle forcing. The Northern Hemisphere dynamical responses are found to be generally similar within the uncertainty. A comparison with an interactive ozone case is also discussed. Lastly, future ozone recovery is investigated using a seven-member ensemble of 1960- 2099/1980-2080 integrations. The long-term evolution of ozone in different regions is found to be generally consistent with previous modelling studies. The long-term trends and variability in springtime Arctic ozone and its chemical, radiative and dynamical drivers are assessed. It is shown that Arctic ozone increases in the future, consistent with future reduction in stratospheric chlorine, stratospheric cooling and strengthening large-scale circulation. Yet, the large interannual variability is found to continue and to facilitate episodic ozone reductions, with halogen chemistry becoming a smaller but non-negligible driver of future springtime Arctic ozone variability for many decades.

Submitted by Jean Medeiros (jeanletras@uepb.edu.br) on 2016-03-03T17:22:59Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) PDF - Sebastião Nascimento de Souza.pdf: 2316347 bytes, checksum: 7e719d9c14cbff4227a3c49a84dc164f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-03T17:22:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) PDF - Sebastião Nascimento de Souza.pdf: 2316347 bytes, checksum: 7e719d9c14cbff4227a3c49a84dc164f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-29 / In this paper, data from the heights of maximum occurrence of meteor echoes were used to investigate a possible relationship between variations in the height of meteors and solar flux at low latitudes during the solar cycle 23. The heights of meteors were obtained from measurements by SKiYMET meteor radar system at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7 ° S, 45.0 ° W). The data used include measurements taken from March 1999 to July 2006 and from September 2007 to October 2008. The echo of the reach and the zenith angle with respect to each radar echo are used for the heights of occurrence of meteors. The maximum height of daily occurrence was obtained from the Gaussian distribution through vertical adjustment. The series of height data of peak occurrence of meteors was subjected to multiple linear regression analysis to investigate the trend and possible variations induced by solar activity. The results showed a downward trend of approximately 68 m / year at the time of maximum occurrence of meteor and 447 m / 100sfu using monthly data after removal of the solar effect, resulting in a decrease in the peak height of approximately 248 m for all observation period after the time trend removal. Considering only the period of decline of the solar cycle (2002-2008) the decline was approximately 1054 m using monthly data in the analysis. The decrease of the meteors occurrence height can be attributed, in part, the effects of solar activity. Knowing that the atmosphere expands with the growth of solar activity the neutral density shows a downward trend over time. / Neste trabalho, dados das alturas de máxima ocorrência de ecos meteóricos foram usados para investigar uma possível relação entre as variações na altura dos meteoros e fluxo solar em baixas latitudes, durante o ciclo solar 23. As alturas dos meteoros foram obtidos a partir das medidas por radar meteórico SKiYMET em Cachoeira Paulista (22,7°S, 45,0°O). Os dados utilizados incluem as medidas realizadas de março de 1999 a julho de 2006 e de setembro de 2007 a outubro de 2008. O alcance do eco e o ângulo zenital referente a cada eco do radar são usados para obter as alturas de ocorrência dos meteoros. A altura de máxima ocorrência diária foi obtida a partir da distribuição vertical através de ajuste Gaussiano. A série de dados da altura do pico de ocorrência de meteoros foi submetida a análise de regressão linear múltipla para investigar a tendência e possíveis variações induzidas pela atividade solar. Os resultados indicam uma tendência de queda de aproximadamente 68 m/ano na altura de ocorrência máxima dos meteoros e de 447 m/100sfu utilizando os dados mensais após remoção do efeito solar, acarretando numa diminuição da altura do pico de aproximadamente 248 m para todo o período observado após remoção da tendência do tempo. Considerando apenas o período de declínio do ciclo solar (de 2002 a 2008) a queda foi de aproximadamente 1054 m utilizando nas análises os dados mensais. O decréscimo da altura de ocorrência dos meteoros pode ser atribuído, em parte, a efeitos da atividade solar. Sabendo que a atmosfera se expande com o crescimento da atividade solar a densidade neutra apresenta uma tendência decrescente ao longo do tempo.

Submitted by Jean Medeiros (jeanletras@uepb.edu.br) on 2018-06-15T14:03:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Luciana Rodrigues de Araújo.pdf: 65021055 bytes, checksum: ca14397fd5976fb51f30eb8b9769c237 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Secta BC (secta.csu.bc@uepb.edu.br) on 2018-06-18T18:12:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Luciana Rodrigues de Araújo.pdf: 65021055 bytes, checksum: ca14397fd5976fb51f30eb8b9769c237 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-18T18:12:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Luciana Rodrigues de Araújo.pdf: 65021055 bytes, checksum: ca14397fd5976fb51f30eb8b9769c237 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Wind data obtained between 1999 and 2016 from measuments by meteor radar at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), Brazil, were used to investigate the behavior of the dynamics on upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere region, the interannual variability in the winds, in the diurnal tide and 2-day wave amplitudes and the possible causes. The results show that zonal wind is characterized by a semiannual variation below 90 km and annual above, while the meridional wind exhibits an annual cycle at all altitudes. Monthly winds did not show quasi-biennial variation (QBO), however the seasonal winds in the zonal direction observed during the summer and fall show QBO variations type in altitudes below 90 km. The results also suggest that the zonal and meridional winds are intensified during the years of solar maximum, especially in the summer and winter seasons. The monthly amplitudes of diurnal tide show an annual variation, in which the amplitudes are greater during the eastward phase of QBO at 30 hPa. The spectrum obtained from the deseasonalized amplitudes shows a 26 months peak in the meridional component, which may to be associated with stratospheric QBO phase. The modulation of the diurnal tide amplitude by QBO shows a quasi ten-year variation, and is stronger for the solar cycle maximum. The amplitude of the 2-day wave exhibit interannual variability, however, do not shows to be affected by the QBO phase during the summer season. The amplitudes of the 2-day show interannual variability, but, only in winter it is affected by the QBO phase. Good agreement between the variation of the amplitude of the 2-day wave for meridional wind and the solar radio flux was observed for most of the summers with a significant correlation, suggesting a possible wave modulation by the 11-year solar cycle. / Dados de ventos obtidos entre 1999 e 2016 a partir de medidas por radar meteórico em Cachoeira Paulista (22,7°S, 45,0°O), Brasil, foram utilizados para investigar o comportamento da dinâmica da região da alta mesosfera e baixa termosfera, a variabilidade interanual dos ventos, das amplitudes da maré diurna e da onda de 2 dias e as possíveis causas. Os resultados mostram que o vento zonal é caracterizado por uma variação semianual abaixo de 90 km e anual acima, enquanto o vento meridional exibe um ciclo anual em todas as alturas. Os ventos mensais não mostraram variação quase bienal (QBO), contudo os ventos sazonais na direção zonal observados durante o verão e o outono mostram variações tipo QBO nas alturas abaixo de 90 km. Os resultados sugerem ainda que os ventos zonal e meridional são intensificados durante os anos de máxima atividade solar, principalmente nas estações de verão e inverno. As amplitudes mensais da maré diurna exibem variação interanual, em que as amplitudes são maiores durante a fase para leste da QBO em 30 hPa. O espectro obtido a partir das amplitudes dessazonalizadas mostra um pico próximo de 26 meses na componente meridional, o qual pode estar associado à fase da QBO estratosférica. A modulação da amplitude da maré diurna pela QBO mostra uma variação quase decenal, e é mais forte durante o máximo do ciclo solar. As amplitudes da onda de 2 dias exibem variabilidade interanual para ambas as componentes, contudo, apenas no inverno mostra ser afetada pela fase da QBO. Boa concordância entre a variação da amplitude meridional da onda de 2 dias e o fluxo de rádio solar foi observada para a maioria dos verões com correlação significativa, sugerindo uma possível modulação da onda pelo ciclo solar de 11 anos.

Yes / In this paper, a machine-learning-based system that could provide automated short-term solar flare prediction is presented. This system accepts two sets of inputs: McIntosh classification of sunspot groups and solar cycle data. In order to establish a correlation between solar flares and sunspot groups, the system explores the publicly available solar catalogues from the National Geophysical Data Center to associate sunspots with their corresponding flares based on their timing and NOAA numbers. The McIntosh classification for every relevant sunspot is extracted and converted to a numerical format that is suitable for machine learning algorithms. Using this system we aim to predict whether a certain sunspot class at a certain time is likely to produce a significant flare within six hours time and if so whether this flare is going to be an X or M flare. Machine learning algorithms such as Cascade-Correlation Neural Networks (CCNNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN) are optimised and then compared to determine the learning algorithm that would provide the best prediction performance. It is concluded that SVMs provide the best performance for predicting whether a McIntosh classified sunspot group is going to flare or not but CCNNs are more capable of predicting the class of the flare to erupt. A hybrid system that combines a SVM and a CCNN is suggested for future use. / EPSRC

Temporal stability of effects of the 11-year solar cycle on circulation conditions in central Europe Abstract The aim of this master thesis is to determinewhether circulation conditions in central Europe are affected by variable solar activity. Circulation type classification by Beck (2000) is used here to evaluate the solar effects. Circulation characteristics of circulation are available back to 1780. This master thesis proves that the solar cycle effects on circulation conditions in central Europe are not stationary in time. It was demonstrated that the frequency of individual circulation types varies significantly, depending on the length of studied period. The impact of solar variability on circulation conditions in central Europe is more significant when a shorter time period is being considered. It was also found that the response of circulation characteristics on solar variability is not immediate. There have not been clear results if there exists a linear trend on lagged response of solar variability on circulation characteristics. Linear trend has been found only for a whole year dataset with a lagged response within a year. This thesis proves that the solar cycle effects on troposphere are highly variable, so it is very difficult to define them straightforward. Keywords: atmospheric circulation,...